Talks about a two-year contract between the Giants and two-time defending Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum have not been going well according to CSNBayArea.com's Mychael Urban. In fact, Urban says it would be more accurate to call the negotiations "dismissals" rather than "discussions," because the righty's camp has rejected every one of the team's proposals.
SI.com's Jon Heyman states the obvious and says that the two sides are likely headed to an arbitration hearing later this month, however he adds that this is something that likely never would have happened under Peter Magowan's watch. Magowan stepped down as the team's managing partner after the 2008 season, and had historically taken care of his star players.
Lincecum filed for $13MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility, while the team countered with just $8MM. He's going to set a new salary record for a first year eligible pitcher regardless of the outcome, but it's worth noting that Lincecum's average fastball velocity dropped from 94.1-mph in 2008 to 92.4-mph last season, so perhaps the club has some concerns about his long-term durability.
this is their franchise right here. The Giants have to get him signed!
Well they think his body will break down soon thats is why they think he might be cheaper after 2 yrs than 4 yrs (he has arbitration 4 times)
Well they think his body will break down soon thats is why they think he might be cheaper after 2 yrs than 4 yrs (he has arbitration 4 times)
thats becuase the giants are probably trying 2 short change him.
Sabean, MAKE it work! This guy’s a very rare gem…and will be for many years to come. Not finding a way to sign him is NOT an option!
If Sabean fails to sign him he should lose his job.
Absolutely.
Do you think Sabean actually has that type of control in situations like this? Think again brother. Neukom and the partners are at the helm of what decisions are bing made and how much money is availible.
Also whose to say what type of terms have been discussed and what the Lincecum camp is asking for? I mean think about it… even if they offered him a 2/30 or 3/50, he can easily make that the way arbitration is set up, especially if he gets the 13MM this year. Correct me if I’m wrong but arbitration goes 40%/60%/80% of their market value during their arbitration years, so if 13MM represents the 40% he maybe set for 19.5MM in 2011 and 26MM in 2012. So thats 58.5MM for rejecting anything the Giants offer. So the question is what is the Lincecum camp looking for? I think it may start at 3/60 but thats just speculation. I have a feeling unless the Giants throw a monsterous contract his way he will go to arbitration, get his pay day (which is very much deserved) and gets ready for a 3-peat. The question is, is he worth a market value of $32.5?
The thing that gets me out of all this if you consider the 8MM the Giants offered as the 40% value (meaning they deem his market value as 20MM), isn’t that the point of arbitration? So the teams can afford their young talent until they are allowed to file for free agency? Or does he represent such an rare case that he falls outside concept of arbitration? And at the end of the day how absurd of an offer do the Giants have to make to satisfy the Lincecum camp.
he should sign him but for only 2-3 yrs i feel like his body will break down (please dont as a giants fan and prove me wrong)
yeah a 2-3 year deal should be good for both parties but i have a feeling if the contract is that short Lincecum is going to want more per (at least 20-21MM per year). If its longer term (say 5-6 years) the fact that its gaurenteed money may bring that price down to 18-19MM per.
yeah a 2-3 year deal should be good for both parties but i have a feeling if the contract is that short Lincecum is going to want more per (at least 20-21MM per year). If its longer term (say 5-6 years) the fact that its gaurenteed money may bring that price down to 18-19MM per.
Good thing Sabean can give $140 million to Barry Zito.
Jeez…give him a 2 yr 24 mill contract now and look to long term him next year. Sabean, this isn’t rocket science! His velocity dropped and he still won the Cy Young
I don’t see how the Giants can short change Timmy on a two year contract? Obviously its got to be in the range of $25-30 million over that two year span. I’m curious at what the Giants offered. 2 years/$20 million?
Yeah, Giants probably would need to offer something like two-years, $30 million.
Timmy probably figures he’s got his arb case won already with the Giants unreasonably low offer; thus, he can basically bank on making $13 million this year. Take the normal arbitration increases (about 40-50% per season, although this is an unprecedented case), and he probably makes $18-19 million in arb next year. Even discounting the year two salary for the security gained, I don’t think two-years, $25 million can get it done. Two-years, $30 million might get it done.
If the Giants want to lock him up for all three of his arb years, the least he’d probably accept is a three-year, $50 million deal.
Tough spot for the Giants. If they can’t get a long-term deal, a trade doesn’t seem like the worst idea, even though fans here in SF would riot. Gain a stable of prospects, and let someone else worry if “The Franchise” is going to suffer a budget-busting injury.
That’s the Giants biggest arguement? Wow! These next two months are going to be long for Timmy and the Giants. Even small market teams realize that stars sell tickets. For 2/25, Timmy pays for himself.
This is the only guy any team should think about giving the farm up for. Maybe there’s a possible trade in the future for lincecum. Imagine what the giants could get for him. The only problem with him at this point is the fact that his fastball velocity has been droping steadily since he got to the majors.
But his ERA has continued to drop also. He is not a guy who needs a 98 mile per hour fastball he is very hard to get runs off. If he pitched for a good run producing team he would be a 20 game winner every year. Hopefully the Giant ownership will see his value and tie him up long term. It would be nice to start to see superstars or faces of the franchise stay with one team again.
I am not a Giants fan, but as a Padre fan, I have to say that lincecum is the most intimidating pitcher in the NL. You go against him and you know you´re not going to score more than twice. I guess since he just saw Josh Johnson, Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez signing 4 and 5 year contracts, a 2 year contract won´t be possible. He has already two CY awards so he probably thinks (and he is right) he deserves a 4 or 5 year contract in the range of 65 to 85 million
I don’t think Timmy’s worried about throwing hard since he hasn’t needed to. His curve and change up have been great. Why throw hard unnecessarily? He rares back and drops the 97-98 when needed.
His K/BB went from 3.15 to 3.84, his FIP down to 2.34 from 2.62, his BB/9 down from 3.33 to 2.72. I would be incredibly worried about that 1.7 mph dip. Just incredibly worried haha.
Worth noting that he threw his fastball only 56% of the time last year, as compared to around 66% of the time his first 2 big league seasons. Looks like he became a more mature pitcher if anything, which is what you were getting at.
Only threw his fastball 55 percent of the time? That is pretty sick.
He should leave the Giants and go to the team he SHOULD have gone to, and that’s the Mariners, born and raised in WA grew up watching the M’s. It’s meant to be 😉
You had your chance!
Well then maybe the Mariners should have drafted him…
How does the M’s regret not drafting Lincecum and instead going with Morrow.
Yes, yes, Bavasi is an idiot, and his decision-making continues to haunt Seattle almost as much as Clay Bennett.
Ok, a comment with “Bill Bavasi” and “Clay Bennett” crosses a number of profanity lines. Perhaps I should be added to the mod queue…?
Ugh.. >_< Makes me sick to my stomach.
That kind of velocity drop doesn’t necessarily indicate weakness or lack of durability in his arm. And given that even at a lower average velocity he was positively dominant, it seems silly to pretend the drop is something to be concerned about for the next two years.
Wrong guy to be stingy with. The Giants look foolish right now.
Plus, even if they were concerned about long-term liability, we’re talking about year-to-year arbitration figures, not long term deals…
He’s holding out for a big ol’ bag of Humboldt’s finest.
In all actuality, they’d be fools not to lock him up~~~~probably don’t want to tee him off come FA time.
How does anyone know that the ownership has any intention of trying to sign him long term? I heard the new owner gives Saben a set amount and under no circumstances is he allowed to exceed that amount. If lincecum continues to pitch the way he has been pitching in two years he may be the first 20 million dollar man.
He is locked up for 4 more years anyway, why is everyone freaking out about this?
Basically, the guy is worth it.
The Giants have him locked up for 4 more years whether he signs a long-term deal or not. Whats with all the panic over not signing him right this second?
Color me stupid, but how does Magowan “take care” of a player that may not have any interest (now) in a long-term deal? Neukom or Magowan, I don’t think it would have made a hill of beans difference. This is a deal that was going to go through the process because The Freak can make more this year, the PA wants it for setting the bar exceptionally high in upcoming years… Just more to it. By the way, Jon, if you’re reading, this isn’t a slam. Just a case of Lincecum having incredible leverage over the Giants.
Not a big Giants fan, but a huge Lincecum fan. Giants really need this deal. Between Lincecum and Cain, they easily have one the best one-two punch in baseball, if not the best. Losing Lincecum would be awful for the Giants.
Lincecum (warranted) and Cain (unwarranted) are not the best “1-2” punch in baseball.
It all starts up the road in Seattle.
how do you know lee and felix are the best 1-2 in baseball when they haven’t played a season together yet? if looking at stats yeah it can be justified but thats before the 2010 season…but Cain is much younger than Lee, which is why many people consider Cain and Lincecum a great 1-2 punch. They are a young tandem still growing and learning AND producing great results at 25 in the majors.
Yeah, they very well could be. If Cain’s biggest issue is not getting the run support he deserves. He could be right up there with Lincecum if he had the run support. In his 5 years of pitching major league baseball he has yearly average run support of 3.29, 4.67, 3.20, 3.12 and 4.26. He owns a career 3.53 ERA, career average of 7.5 SO/9 and a career 2.09 SO/BB ratio. His numbers are as good on the road, if not better, as they are in the 2nd half vs. 1st.
They won’t be “losing Lincecum” for four years when he is eligible to be a free agent. Cain is due a new deal even before he is
They definately need to try to lock him up long term now. What happens when he wins the Cy again next year? If he’s not locked up long term ASAP he may pitch himself out of SF’s salary capabilities.
With Verlander and King Felix agreeing to deals, I can’t imagine that Lincecum’s agent is looking for a long-term deal that is more than theirs. Something in the range of 5 years at $85 million with an option for a 6th year seems very reasonable. It would buy out the rest of his arbitration years and 1-2 of his free agent years. That would take him to age 30-31 and in line for another long term contract.
The issue is that Felix and Verlander have no Cy Youngs and Greinke has one, while Lincecum has 2 in his first two full seasons. Since you can’t really quantify the difference between the batters they are facing (or at least not very well), the foggy “best pitcher in the league” award, the Cy, is going to factor. So if those pitchers are making $14-16 million a season, it’s not hard to argue that Lincecum deserves $18-20. And with Zito on the team… It only goes downhill from there.
Lincecum would be crazy to take less than either of those two guys. Timmy is a freak and by any measure he is substantially better than either pitcher.
While I happen to think that Verlander and Hernandez are pretty similar – Lincecum is in a totally different league.
From fangraphs- Looking at WAR from last year they’re comparable.
WAR: Pitchers
Zack Greinke 9.4
Justin Verlander 8.2
Tim Lincecum 8.2
Roy Halladay 7.3
Felix Hernandez 6.9
From fangraphs- Looking at WAR from last year they’re comparable.
WAR: Pitchers
Zack Greinke 9.4
Justin Verlander 8.2
Tim Lincecum 8.2
Roy Halladay 7.3
Felix Hernandez 6.9
Lincecum would be crazy to take less than either of those two guys. Timmy is a freak and by any measure he is substantially better than either pitcher.
While I happen to think that Verlander and Hernandez are pretty similar – Lincecum is in a totally different league.
Yea his average fastball velocity might be down a hair – but he hasn’t lost the ability to throw that high heat when needed. The fastball velocity will always turn down a hair when you start getting a good feel for your secondary pitches. To me thats more valuable to have. As long as you can still light it up to 98…I’d take consistent 92/94 FB with 2 plus secondary pitches over consistent 96/98 FB with NO other plus secondary pitches.
PAY THE MAN!! HE DESERVES IT!!
I was just thinking about this… is 13MM for 2010 really that bad for the Giants to pay for arguably the best pitcher in the majors? Compared to CC, Santana and Zito I’d say its a bargain. So really they could walk into the hearing say nothing to defend their number, Lincecum gets his pay day and the Giants get to work this whole year to figure out how to keep this guy in SF for the next 5-7 years instead of trying to do a rush job in the next few weeks. The PA get what they want in raising the arbitration ceiling and the Giants fans who hate Sabean will have even more to bitch about. Then again that also breaks down the who idea of the arbitration years from the ownership side but who cares about those rich snobs.
My question is, why they didn´t hestitated like this with Zito´s contract. I think Seaben is just giving us another reason to really, really hate him.
Because its not like he can sign with anyone else??? No rush, as compared to signing a free agent
Actually Sabean did… Peter Magowan insisted on the offer they threw at him even when Sabean and his assistants had questions about what type of “Ace” they were getting.
So Sabean actually was being cautious when signing Zito??? Magowan wanted an ACE after Schmidt left to the DODGERS (get money spent by the dodgers :P) and Zito was the next best starter after Schmidt…..but they should have got a 2-3 yr deal to an average B+ starter in that market (financially we would be in an okay position to getting a good players that can hit HRs besides Barry Bonds)
Agreed but Boras would never have went for a 2-3 year deal with better offers at that point on the table. I dont agree with most of Sabeans FA signings but this one he didnt even want to make, but Magowan was his boss so he fell in line with the front office.
Agreed but Boras would never have went for a 2-3 year deal with better offers at that point on the table. I dont agree with most of Sabeans FA signings but this one he didnt even want to make, but Magowan was his boss so he fell in line with the front office.
So Sabean actually was being cautious when signing Zito??? Magowan wanted an ACE after Schmidt left to the DODGERS (get money spent by the dodgers :P) and Zito was the next best starter after Schmidt…..but they should have got a 2-3 yr deal to an average B+ starter in that market (financially we would be in an okay position to getting a good players that can hit HRs besides Barry Bonds)
They could very well lock him up, but if the negotiations aren’t progressing, it probably means he wants out. He said before he wanted to go year to year, not sure if he changed his mind.
Still, you can’t help but to think the Giants are wasting two of the best young pitches in the game by assembling such an old an ineffective lineup. This team HAS to make the playoffs, but I wouldn’t count on it happening this year. Lincecum wants to win, and I’m not sure if he can do it in San Fran. They need to sign a legit hitter instead of a ton of mediocre guys over 30 hoping to catch a rebound or another Juan Uribe career year.
Problem is they invested much of their drafts in pitching (hence the strong home grown picting core), made bad investments (see Zito and Rowand) and didnt really have a strong FA class to pick from to assemble the type of lineup that could take them to the world series. The only way in which they could assemble the right offense behind Lincecum is to either raise the payroll significantly (go from low 90s to the 140-150 range) or trade away Cain and Bumgarner for some big bats in the hopes that timmy doesnt break down, Sanchez reaches his full potential and guys like Wheeler, Clark and Tanner can turn out to be strong ML level pitchers sooner than later.
Honestly I put more faith guys like Bowker, Ishikawa, shierholtz, Neal, Kieschnick, Posey, and Pill breaking out in the next few years than the owners raising payroll enough to put together a solid offense while preserving our young homegrown arms.
Problem is they invested much of their drafts in pitching (hence the strong home grown picting core), made bad investments (see Zito and Rowand) and didnt really have a strong FA class to pick from to assemble the type of lineup that could take them to the world series. The only way in which they could assemble the right offense behind Lincecum is to either raise the payroll significantly (go from low 90s to the 140-150 range) or trade away Cain and Bumgarner for some big bats in the hopes that timmy doesnt break down, Sanchez reaches his full potential and guys like Wheeler, Clark and Tanner can turn out to be strong ML level pitchers sooner than later.
Honestly I put more faith guys like Bowker, Ishikawa, shierholtz, Neal, Kieschnick, Posey, and Pill breaking out in the next few years than the owners raising payroll enough to put together a solid offense while preserving our young homegrown arms.
He wants out, the only thing the Giants can do is maybe buy up a few of his free agent years at a small discount in exchange for some security in case of God forbid an injury or decline in performance. He would be nuts not to try the free agent market with his talent. He might be able to get an 8 to 10 year deal for 30 million a year if he keeps raking up Cy Young awards. Peter O`Malley was asked what he would have to pay koufax in this day and age of baseball. O`malley said” I would have to make him a partner” This may be the case for the giants.
They could very well lock him up, but if the negotiations aren’t progressing, it probably means he wants out. He said before he wanted to go year to year, not sure if he changed his mind.
Still, you can’t help but to think the Giants are wasting two of the best young pitches in the game by assembling such an old an ineffective lineup. This team HAS to make the playoffs, but I wouldn’t count on it happening this year. Lincecum wants to win, and I’m not sure if he can do it in San Fran. They need to sign a legit hitter instead of a ton of mediocre guys over 30 hoping to catch a rebound or another Juan Uribe career year.
All you have to do is look down the the and see Zito and his salary. nuff said
This should not come as a surprise to long standing Giants Fans everywhere. Typically the Giants do not take care of their own, Willie Mays went to the Mets, McCovey to the Padres, Marichal to the Red Sux, Bonds to the Retirement Home @ Federal Court, Jeff Kent to the Astros, Gaylord Perry to the Indians etc. etc.
The point is whenever the Giants have good players they don’t want too pay to keep them or in the case of Bonds, talk sure was cheap how they were going to surround him with the hitters (in front and behind in the order) in order to win. Nope never happened because the Giants are cheap and only concerned with servicing their stadium debt first not what they put on the field.
The situation with Lincecum and Cain will be no different, over the long haul the Giants will not want to pay to keep them so they will either be traded or will walk. At which time the Giants will spend more money unwisely to get players like Rowand, DeRosa, Zito, Garko (now gone) Huff, Renteria etc. who are on the older side of 30, expensive and one demensional.
Exactly why all the sellouts at AT&T are now a lot less frequent as the Giants just won’t spend their money wisely on good solid players to improve their on the field product.
Sabean is not able to secure contracts without getting approval from ownership. His hands are somewhat tied and has to work within the parameters he is given just like any other GM.