Roy Oswalt is only 32 years old, but he's already talking about retirement, writes Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. When asked about his future, Oswalt entertained the possibility of only pitching for a couple more seasons:
"I still love the game. I still love the competition. … But when I get finished with my contract, if I’m not pitching at the level I’m pitching at now, then I’m not going to come back and hurt the team."
Oswalt has been one of baseball's most dominant starting pitchers this century, posting a 3.23 ERA since breaking into the majors in 2001. Though his 4.12 ERA in 2009 was a career-worst, it's still hard to imagine him becoming ineffective enough that he'd want to retire when his current contract expires at age 34.
It's conceivable, however, that he might not be an Astro by 2012. Morosi compares Oswalt to Roy Halladay and Jake Peavy, two aces who were traded from non-contenders to contenders within the last year. The Astros have no immediate plans to rebuild or to deal Oswalt, but teammate Lance Berkman acknowledges, "I could see Roy saying, 'Hey, I want to go somewhere where I’m pitching for a championship.'"
The difference between Halladay/Peavy and Oswalt is that Paul Beeston and Jeff Morrad didn’t mezmerrize the pitchers in to staying like Drayton McLane has with Roy Oswalt. McLane has made it clear that even if the Astros can’t compete, they are keeping the “heartbeat” of the team. I think thats a really poor attitude and its not going to make the Astros farm system or their future any better.
If Oswalt were to be traded right now, he could potentially bring in 3 or 4 prospects and 3 of them could be in Baseball America’s top 30 of the top 100. Two of them could be in the top 15. Same goes for Berkman. Maybe the Stros would have to cover their salaries a bit. But if it makes the team better, I’d do it. Plus as I said, the Astros don’t have much of a farm system, and their future doesn’t look bright. They also have aging players like Feliz, Lee, and Matsui on their team with untradable contracts.
No chance they would be able to get back 3 top 30 prospects. First of all, there is, arguably, only 1 team with 3 top 30 prospects (Rangers), and they wouldn’t trade their 3 best farmhands for 1 player. Especially if that player is a pitcher approaching his mid-30s that just put up the worst season of his career. There is also only 2 teams with 2 top 15 prospects: the Rangers and the Giants. Giants are definitely not trading theirs for Oswalt and I highly doubt the Rangers are going to consider moving Feliz until seeing what he can do with a full season in the bigs.
Take Halladay, for example. According to BA, the Phillies gave up the 25th, 29th and 81st rated prospects in all of baseball. I think it can be agreed upon that Halladay is the more valuable commodity compared to Oswalt, even with 1 less year on his contract at the time, because it was widely known he would sign an extension anyway. Oswalt would fetch nowhere near what you are suggesting.
True dat. Oswalt might have gotten a return similar or better than Halladay if they had traded him a couple years back (2007, start of 2008, etc). After the last couple of seasons, I have to imagine Oswalt’s stock has dropped considerably and quotes like this certainly don’t help his trade value. With that said, the ‘stros would be well served to trade him for one good prospect and another guy or two. By the time the team can compete, Oswalt will be long gone anyways (retired or not resigned).
The difference between Halladay/Peavy and Oswalt is that Paul Beeston and Jeff Morrad didn’t mezmerrize the pitchers in to staying like Drayton McLane has with Roy Oswalt. McLane has made it clear that even if the Astros can’t compete, they are keeping the “heartbeat” of the team. I think thats a really poor attitude and its not going to make the Astros farm system or their future any better.
If Oswalt were to be traded right now, he could potentially bring in 3 or 4 prospects and 3 of them could be in Baseball America’s top 30 of the top 100. Two of them could be in the top 15. Same goes for Berkman. Maybe the Stros would have to cover their salaries a bit. But if it makes the team better, I’d do it. Plus as I said, the Astros don’t have much of a farm system, and their future doesn’t look bright. They also have aging players like Feliz, Lee, and Matsui on their team with untradable contracts.
if this guy becomes available the dodgers better be first in line to get him.
how does dewitt, mcdonald, dejesus, lambo sound? too little?
for oswalt?
i think james loney and dejesus. no more but no less either.
Why would Houston want Loney? Arms and middle infield. Dodgers have major catching prospects also, that would make sense.
why would we give up james loney with no else to play 1B or better yet why would they want james loney with no where for him to play?
He’s not Cliff Lee.
Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman for the Ching Lung Hu. Sounds about right.
OK fellas.. The Dodgers need every player in their system.. They need those 3 years of cheap service time.. No trades should be made.. time for the farm system to roam.
This really isn’t shocking news. Oswalt said this way back when he signed his contract- that it might be his last contract and that he didn’t see himself as one of those guys pitching in his late 30s.
The Mets had Oswalt couple of years ago as part of a three-way deal with the Orioles involved and Angelos killed it at the last minute. I know the Astros typically play better in the second half but if they get off to a bad start, I’d be calling them if I were Omar Minaya. I think Oswalt can still pitch and even if it’s for another couple of years it’d be worth it to a team that wants to win now and some pieces in place.
Both Oswalt and Berkman had the worst years of their careers last year, thus the reason the Astros dropped from 86 wins the previous year to 74 last year. If both of them get back to their usual years, that’s .300, 30 HR, 100 RBIs for Berkman and 17-18 wins for Oswalt….they will compete and all this talk about retiring will go away. You have to remember that in the past 17 years, the Astros have only had 3 losing seasons so they are simply not used to losing and hate it. Wins will cure a lot of woes. Things are already looking up in Spring Training with the attitude that Brad Mills has brought to the club vs. Cecil Cooper. Coop is a good man, just didn’t know how to deal with the players or lead. Mills is a born leader and it shows already. I doubt Oswalt and Berkman are going anywhere, so any fans of any other teams just might as well quit salivating.
I’m going to say a trade to the Rangers is the best option but if you will…
Martinez
Mejia
Holt
Flores
the potential Rangers trade in my eyes would be
Hunter
Scheppers
Profar
I’m going to say a trade to the Rangers is the best option but if you will…
Martinez
Mejia
Holt
Flores
the potential Rangers trade in my eyes would be
Hunter
Scheppers
Profar
Now why would the Mets deal 4 of their top 5 or 6 prospects in a package for Oswalt if the deal you listed of F-Mart, Mejia, Holt, and Flores could almost fetch A-Gon from the Pads? Then, since A-Gon will be cheap for ’10-11, the Mets *could* in theory sign a #2 starter from next year’s FA class that projects to be much better than what was available this off-season.
A guy like Lee would come at an annual price similar to what Roy would cost if the ‘Stros didn’t pay any of his salary ($16-18 MM range, I’m guessing). So if the Mets were to trade their prospects for a superstar, A-Gon makes infinitely more sense because in this scenario, the addition of 1 big salary (either Oswalt or Lee for the year 2011 – BEFORE A-Gon becomes expensive) would allow Murphy to be a bench hitter or trade bait (granted he establishes ANY trade value) and move Ike Davis to RF (assuming the Pads don’t want him) and allow A-Gon’s 2011 salary to replace Francoeur on the roster (again in a dream scenario where Francoeur establishes trade value).
Unfortunately the Mets may have to buckle down even more in next off-season’s FA market because of the salary increases to Wright, Reyes, Bay, and their arbitration cases. However, if 1 big salary is to be added, it should be Lee through FA, and if 1 big trade is to be made emptying the farm, it should be for A-Gon. Once 2011 passes (meaning only 1 year of excess spending), the contracts of Castillo and Perez coming off the books should easily cover Lee’s salary, meaning A-Gon and Reyes would be the only pieces left to extend, and IF Beltran isn’t brought back, his salary would easily cover Reyes’ extension, or most of A-Gon’s. Keep in mind that if payroll is raised back to the past 2 years level, these contracts would be no problem. In fact, there’d probably be more to spare. I realize the proposed trade for Oswalt above would not be enough for A-Gon, but it’d be an excellent start that could easily get done, and I apologize for the length of this.
i don’t know if they’re just blowing smoke or whatever but i think they’d change their minds if they were on a contending team that had a chance for a championship every year, also, does anyone see a trend here? Mark Buerhle talks about retirement after this year & so does Oswalt, 2 of the more consistent pitchers in baseball in my opinion, thoughts?
Maybe so the team won’t try to trade them, even though they should? At this point, Houston would be fools to not be in a “trade vets for the future” mode. By saying “Oh, maybe I’ll just retire” then clubs don’t get to imagine trading for one of these guys and then giving him a small 1 or 2 year extension before he hits FA. I could imagine both might be quite comfortable and want to end their careers on the team. I mean, while Houston has not been competitive it has generally been a place where their stars tend to retire.
Beltran’s 18-20 million dollar salary going away will help off-set the increases to Wright / Reyes. I’m the biggest Beltran fan, but he will be 34 going on 35, just having had knee surgery, is often injured and is playing CF at that. I think the Mets would be wise to trade him when his value goes back up. No, they will not be able to replace his offensive production, but what they can get in return combined with the salary they save will enable them to both lock up Wright and Reyes long-term and possibly help fill the hole he would leave. This convo would be much easier to have if F-Mart would distinguish himself as a bona-fide CF prospect.
Well then the question is, Adrian Gonzalez of Roy Oswalt?