In a piece for MLB.com, Hal Bodley discusses the challenge of maintaining competitive balance in baseball, using the potential payroll cut facing the Rays as an example. According to owner Stuart Sternberg, Tampa Bay may have to cut player salaries from over $70MM in 2010 to the $50MM range for 2011.
Bodley's article focuses more on revenue sharing and competitive balance around the league, but for our purposes, let's examine the Rays' specific case. In perhaps the scariest division in baseball, spending significantly less than the Red Sox and Yankees, will the Rays realistically be able to compete past this season?
A look at the 2011 free agent list reveals a few major contributors who could be entering their last year in Tampa, including Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Pat Burrell, and Rafael Soriano. The club still has a strong young nucleus that includes Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton, Wade Davis, and David Price, among others, but losing a third of their starting lineup and their closer would sting.
Could the team bring back one or two of those major free agents? Crawford, Pena, Burrell, and Soriano alone will earn over $36.5MM in 2010, so even taking into account next year's arbitration raises and reduced payroll, the team could have some negotiating flexibility with that money off the books. Or they could let everyone walk, pile up a few compensation draft picks, and spend that extra money elsewhere.
So, if you're running the Rays, facing a significant payroll cut for 2011, what's your approach? If your team is slipping from contention by the trading deadline, do you shop Crawford and other players? Which potential free agents, if any, do you attempt to bring back next season?
I know it sounds quite strange, but is there any way they could attempt to switch to the NL East? I doubt it has ever been done, but it seems they have the talent to compete in most divisions, but dont have the money to compete against the Sawx and Yanks…
That would be a no. MLB would have to totally restructure all of the divisions for one team to switch leagues.
Because they have the money to compete with the Mets and the Phils?
they may not have the money but they have the talent
Money hasn’t seemed to help out the Mets all that much.
Yes, but I blame that on Minaya, if someone half way competent was spending the money….
Well, that’s certainly part of it, but the incessant meddling of the ownership cannot be overlooked either.
And yet it almost always is.
It has been done when the brewers switched from AL to NL but don’t count On it
That was also because they were joining in 2 new teams with Ari and TB. They had to make a switch so that there wasn’t 15 teams in each league.
I dont think they were switched because they had no shot at competing against the rest of the AL(or in this case, the division).
I obviously dont think this will or should happen, just a suggestion
Would have to wait for the next collective bargaining agreement in 2011 for any consideration on league changes. here read this msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/rosenthal-realignment-…
I say let em all walk. Jennings will replace crawford, Power hitting 1b are a dime a dozen (even though pena does have a ton of power), Soriano will want to be paid to much for a reliever. If burrel would come back on a 3-4 million dollar one year deal I would keep him though as a DH. His poor 2009 seems more like an abberation considering his career numbers
I could not agree more. Every single one of those guys can be replaced. Trade them all at the deadline and get more than you would in the draft.
Well its a no brainer you let Burrell and Soriano walk after this year. Pena has said he’ll take a discount to stay in Tampa. Unfortunately, his agent is Scott Boras..so yeah. Crawford sounds like he wants a payday, so I think they should look around for any trade partners for him. Jennings is ready to play in the bigs, so that’s a plus.
If they really have to lower salary, should they really risk offering arb? Crawford, I understand. Offer a one year and he’ll surely decline, but Pena? He probably will decline too considering all the top 1st baseman are FA’s the following offseason.
Aren’t they also getting a new stadium soon? There would almost certainly have to be a jump in payroll and revenue with that. Although I doubt they keep Crawford around, but I don’t see why not extending Pena for a few more years would hurt. That would be a major blow to that lineup to lose 2 big bats.
The Rays have three guys that are ready to produce big time in the bigs. Joyce, Jennings and Rodriguez can fill a lot of holes next year. Signing Ruiz would be a cheap replacement for Pena. The only player that may come back is Pena, but only at less than 3/30.
The Rays are a crafty bunch, I’m sure they have it all figured out. Crawford is good, but he’s not good enough for a team to devote 25% of their payroll to. Let Burrell walk, more “complete” DH types (Thome, Dye) are going to cost way less. As long as they hang on to Longo, they can keep bringing up the prospects
Why is it a competitive balance problem? This is about a market that cannot and will not support an MLB team. Complaining about the Yankees and Red Sox gets away just trys to scapegoat the reality that Tampa/St. Pete doesn’t deserve a baseball team.
100% agree with you and I live in the Tampa area. This “place” supports Football and more football, nothing else. when they 1st got the rays as an expansion team, could understand somewhat them moving into that mausoleum, called the “Thunderdome” way across the bay in St.Pete which forced a good percentage of the population that *might* have attended games to drive way to far to see then, a pathetic team in a terrible park. Now, the Rays brass and St.pete are even planning the “new” stadium for St.Pete? Have these people not learned the majority of the population lives on the OTHER side of the bay and is not going to cross that auto pileup bridge to see them?
For a team that runs for the most part on smarts, they seem pig headed and asinine on delivering a tax payer funded stadium to a place the people have already proven they will not go and see them play at, that is, unless the NYY, or Red Sox are in town.
as a Canadian who follows the Jays, we know all about life in the AL East
ain’t easy!
first the O’s then the Jays foolishly tried to compete with dollars but that just proved to be throwing good money after bad free agents
the Rays?
Garza, Shields, Price, Davis, Niemman, Hellickson, maybe McGee (over injury?)
this team has the great depth of (younger) pitching everyone wishes they had so that should carry them through the next few seasons (and one of them might become the longterm closer they seek)
Longoria Brignac Desmond Jennings etc and maybe Sean Rodriguez gives them solid footing off the mound
He’s been their dude but trade Crawford now, Pena, too, maybe even Zobrist while he’s high value and hope the mistake that is Burrell will have some value at deadline
still an ugly ballpark and still should be contracted so it’s all kind of sad because they turned themselves from one of the worst to one of the best organizations in MLB and their run two years ago was one of the all-time best
You say they are one of the best organizations, then say they should be contracted? Makes zero sense. They need to move to a better area, not disappear.
The One thing the Rays have is extreme amounts of Minor League depth, a great General Manager and a great team now and for the future. When or if Crawford leaves, they will have Jennings waiting in the wing. Plus, lets just say all 4 leave, that could be 8 draft picks in the first two rounds. 4 in the first round. The Rays just have great management, the best bargain in Baseball in Evan Longoria, and I think that from this year for at least the next 5 years, they will most certainly be able to compete.
With all of the depth they have, they could make a trade, make a few trades, or make a ton of trades. What ever they do it always seems to work out. The only bust contracts they’ve had over the past 10 or so years has been Dewon Brazelton and Wade Townsend. Most of their whole team is home grown and they still have tons of talent in their system. What if they were able to turn James Sheilds or Jeremy Hellickson in to Yonder Alonso? or Brett Wallace? What if they were able to turn Reid Brignac or Sean Rodriguez in to a Neftali Feliz (don’t worry! Not Neftali Feliz just a Neftali Feliz type). They have so many options for the future that I’m not sure if there is any team in Baseball aside from a small handful who are set up promisingly for years to come.
Also, remember, of course Carl Crawford, Pena and Soriano would love to get some more cash but Crawford and Pena love playing for the Rays! Do I think the Rays will retain the two? no, but i think they will at least be able to trade the two mid-season and get the equivelant or more than the compensation picks they will get if the two (and Soriano) walk.
There are just so many things that impress me about this organization and I can’t see anything going wrong for a while. Infact All I see for the Rays are good things to come.
So about trades, what do I think?
Either, Brignac and Crawford for Travis Wood and Yonder Alonso or Carl Crawford (assuming the Reds are in contention) for Jeremy Bleich and Mark Melancon.
Rafael Soriano for Ryan Kalish and Federowicz.
James Shields for Daryl Jones and Francisco Samuel.
Carlos Pena for Brandon Crawford and Clayton Tanner
Thoughts?
I like true trade proposals nut why would the RS need another reliever?
Because I honestly expect Manny Delcarmen to have a slip up or two. Plus, you can never have enough relief pitchers right?
Their is a thing called roster size.
Look into it.
What I mean is you can never have enough good relievers. I guess it could be the equivilant of the George Sherrill trade of last July.
But, I don’t think the RS or Soriano would be too interested in a deal where Soriano moves from a closing situation to a setup man. If that can be done, then sure (although I loooove Kalish, so I would have a tough time). Otherwise, I personally don’t see that happening. But you’re right, Delcarmen looks like he’s about to implode, so anything can happen.
Now that I think about it, I might actually be able to deal with Kalish being traded. He’s a great player, and I like him, but the RS have a glut of decent outfielder prospects right now. With Kalish, Reddick, Lin, Westmoreland, and Fuentes, there are lots of outfielders that could contribute to the team. Kalish, Reddick and Lin maybe as early as this year. So looking at it that way, I could handle losing Kalish.
Soriano doesn’t have a no-trade clause so if the Rats get the right package from the Sox, no doubt they will trade him.
Do you think George Sherill was happy about leaving the closer role for a Dodgers set up role? Probably not but the opportunity to win a World Series should be equivalent.
Also, the Twins may be on the lookout for a closer mid-season.
Its such a shame what’s happened to Joe Nathan and whether they acquire a closer now, later or look within the organization, they are going to be searching.
Red Herring.
It’s a given that any player without a no-trade clause will get traded for the right package.
Face it, the sox bullpen is stacked, with quite a few promising pieces in MiLB as backup.
The Reds aren’t trading Alonso and Wood for 1/2 a season of Crawford. Hell, they wouldn’t do it for a full year. You’re outta your mind.
Well Maybe Hellickson for Yonder Alonso. But think about it, There is no spot for Alonso on the Reds. Tons of choices of Rays players.
If Alonso is traded (which is definitely a possibility)…it won’t be for pitching. The Reds have plenty of that.
There is a possibilty that Harang and Arroyo wont be on the Reds in 2011. I’m not saying its certain, but theres a chance.
Therefore, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Chapman, Leake, Wood, and think about Hellickson in that mix. So if Leake or Wood need some time, or one of them gets injured (Please stay healthy Edinson) Thats some depth. But even if Arroyo is on the 2011 Reds and Harang isn’t, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Hellickson, Chapman, Leake, and Wood solidify some really nice depth.
But I do agree now that you think about it, they don’t have “too much” pitching, but they could use a young arm like Jeremy Hellickson.
and also, must we not forget that the Reds could have easily picked Gordon Beckham or Jason Castro in 2008…I’m certainly not doubting Yonder Alonso (Yes, I do think he is going to be a future perenial All-Star in a few years) nor am I doubting Orlando Cabrera, I’m simply saying that Gordon Beckham or Jason Castro would fit great in the Reds 2010 plans and certainly be in the Lineup on Opening Day!
Aww, can’t you post team names as well, for us guys who don’t know nearly as many prospects? 🙂 I only recognize names of my own team’s prospects, or the really big guns like Heyward or Strasburg. 😛
Who do you want me to define for you?
Well, I just meant I don’t know which teams you are suggesting in each of the deals. Obviously the Rays are in each trade, but the other teams I can’t figure out. I know one is the Red Sox, and apparently one is the Reds, but after that I’m lost.
Gotcha. Ca.n you tell me what I said though. Ill help you out.
why do you act like the Rays aren’t going to be in the race? They could win the division this season or at least the wild card, why would the Rays make these trades? They are clearly going for it this season
that was meant as a reply to SPANdemonium
Thats why I said that there organization is one of the best in Baseball and will be for long years to come.
Yankees fan here but I’m a big fan of what the Rays ‘ front office is doing. Also, as a Yankees fan, I really hope the Yankees dont sign Crawford (no disrespect to TB or Crawford) simply because a) Crawford has more value to a team like TB than to the Yanks and b) I just dont see Crawford being worth the amount of money it’s going to take to sign him.
That said, and this is a thought from someone who isnt a Rays fan. First of all, I think you defintely let Soriano walk, a team with the payroll and revenues of the Rays cant afford to spend lavishly on a closer, not to mention that Soriano has been injured a few times in his career and outside of a few select closers in MLB, closers, like most relievers are volatile from one year to the next. I’d let Burrell, Pena, and Soriano go and explore trading for A-Gon and Heath Bell in San Diego. Both are signed to modest deals through 2011 only, but what trading for them does is it extends your window as a team that def will/should contend and your also going to be netting top draft picks for 2 years straight, an awesome way to continue building your farm system. On top of that, you keep A-Gon from going to Bost which also helps as Bost is a division rival. I’m not saying it’d work, or makes sense, but as an outsider, I’d explore that possibility, maybe as soon as the deadline, whereas you can than trade Pena for prospects as well. It’s creative thinking like this that a team like TB must continue to do.
Ooh, a rational yankee fan! 🙂 I love it. Actually, I should be nicer than that, most commenters on this site are pretty level-headed. Still.
As a BS fan, I agree with you: the Rays front office is really impressive. I also hope the Yanks don’t sign Crawford (for different reasons, maybe ;). Also, as a BS fan who would love to see AGon in a Sox uniform, I am worried about the possibility of Tampa getting him, because as you said, that is definitely a possibility. If they want to trade for him, and especially if they think they can resign him (ha), they would have no trouble beating Boston’s offer. Boston has some decent prospects, but the really good ones will never be packaged together for AGon, and even then Tampa has better players to offer. I could possibly see if Tampa can find trade partners for Crawford and Pena, and could make the trade for AGon, they could even resign him to a long deal. Even if he takes up 25% of their budget, that’s one of the guys you could say is good enough to do that for.
The Longoria contract should be enough for them to compete until it runs out.
They badly need to get a new stadium deal lined up, or they will have to relocate sooner than later.
I don’t get why the Rays have to cut payroll down to 50 million. I live in Detroit area with a bad economy and rust belt declining population and the payroll here is 100+million.
Why the heck in a warm, desireable climate does a team have a payroll that low? Maybe the owners of the other teams are rich men with expensive hobbies? They subsidize there hobby by paying grown men tens and hundreds of millions of dollars to play a game?
Baseball needs to get real about salary caps. With new stadiums, the Rays and Marlins could survive in Florida. The problem with the Rays building a fan base, is the fact that everyone knows the Red Sox and Yankees are usual #1 & #2 in that division. When is the last time the Orioles or Blue Jays put together a division winner? Long long long time.
.
Baseball is not competitively balanced. The Yanks and Red Sox each spend way to much money for other teams to keep up. And as long as there isn’t a salary cap that is within reasonable distance of mid-market teams, they will be stuck in permanent mediocrity.
A floor makes more sense than a cap IMO
You can’t penalize a team for having money, but you should penalize teams for pocketing money.
I agree and disagree. If the league decides to implement one, gotta do both. But a cap shouldn’t be ridiculously low. $180-million only hurts one team 😉
MLB would probably approve a floor though since that would mean more money brought in for them [less pocketed from owners].
Every North American professional team sport has a cap except baseball, and go figure it’s the one that has gotten most out of control.
Wrong!
The NFL no longer has a cap as about a week ago when free agency began this year.
Wrong!
The NFL no longer has a cap as about a week ago when free agency began this year.
The other alternative would be opening the playoffs to another wildcard team. Even if the 2 wildcard teams played a 3 or even 1 game series for the right into the playoffs, it’d open up the hope of the postseason to teams not spending 200M in the AL east.
NO
Salary caps breed mediocrity, not parity.
Jennings replaces Crawford, Frank Francisco is the econimical version of Soriano. Andruw Jones + Hank Blalock platoon is the 3/4 production for 1/8 the price of Carlos Pena. Positionless DH’s top out around $4 million right now. Get someone like Vlad or maybe Troy Glaus and you’ll get by. The Rays will be fine if they have to go one or two years around $50 million. After that they gotta get back up to the $75-$80 million if they wish to stick around .Also with the 3 first and 4 sandwich picks potential that farm will keep getting better.
Problem is this isn’t an issue of roster moves, but thanks for playing.
Salary caps don’t provide competitive balance any better than what has happened in MLB. All salary caps would do is reduce the share of revenue going to player payroll, which is already lower in MLB than most other sports. The issue really is one of revenue disparity. And that’s largely due to the fact that MLB has by far the highest % of revenue as local revenue. It’s unfortunate, but are the owners of NY and Boston supposed to just agree to hand over ever increaasing shares of their revenue to other clubs?
The fact is that over the last few seasons the Rays have consistently been one of the most profitable teams in baseball. And not just in % terms, but in actual net dollars. With revenue sharing structured the way it is, teams at the low end of the local revenue ledger are getting around $70 million before they sell a ticket. Another example of very superficial reporting by Bodley – who’s employed by MLB, meaning the Commish’s office.
One thing that needs to happen is a poor tax. For teams like the Marlins, who take in that $70 mil and spend about 1/2 that on payroll, there needs a be a cut in their revenue sharing receipts and a redistribution to teams in the mid markets that aren’t pocketing the cash. The Marlins and other clubs should be allowed to cut payroll to the bone when they’re rebuilding, but the other teams – and that means all the other teams – shouldn’t have to finance their decision. The most profitable team in baseball over the last few years? Those same Marlins!
Revenue sharing is a decent system, and perhaps some tweaks could expand the cash pool for the smaller revenue clubs. There’s probably room for some additional sharing. But the fastest growing area of MLB revenue is the Central fund from national TV, Internet, etc., and is shared equally by all 30 clubs.
The fact is the Rays aren’t going to have to cut payroll in 2011 – they will choose to do so because they can. What dynamic is negatively impacting their revenue streams? If Tampa area fans won’t go to games to see one of the best teams in baseball – 1/4 of who’s home games are against 2 of the other best teams and the 2 of the best road draws in the game – there may be something wrong with Tampa as a baseball market.
You hit the nail on the head about 9 times! I agree strongly on the revenue sharing – it’s a great idea but there is no rule forcing teams to spend their money on rosters only. Maybe the league should demand that they spend on the roster or we will take the excess and build those poor bastards in Minnesota a roof over their new “Snowbowl”.
smacks forehead. Dude….. Minnesota’s winter weather is comparable to Chicago and Detroit AND New York City for that matter. Yes it is slightly colder, but the Twins have played outdoors there before. Remember Met Stadium? And yes…. you can play baseball in 40 degree weather in April & Sept. in Minneapolis/St. Paul. Its not that big of a deal and it won’t be a “Snowbowl”.
You hit the nail on the head about 9 times! I agree strongly on the revenue sharing – it’s a great idea but there is no rule forcing teams to spend their money on rosters only. Maybe the league should demand that they spend on the roster or we will take the excess and build those poor bastards in Minnesota a roof over their new “Snowbowl”.
And what would the big market teams do with a cap exactly? Sorry A-Rod sorry Jeter we have to drop you? Its WAYYYYY too late for MLB to really do anything at this point, they created a monster in the system and there seems to be no clear viable option that wouldnt require MLB to go into a cave for a few years.
Obviously, contracts would be grandfathered in.
Slightly off topic, but: Why does everyone undervalue Carlos Pena? Tons of strikeouts, yes. But also a great OBP and tons of HRs. I mean, isn’t the POINT on the game to score runs? Runs are what win you the game. So, if you have a good OBP yr giving yr team the chance to knock you in; and, if yr hitting HRs, yr scoring runs and, perhaps, knocking others in! It’s f’n simple! What does it take to get some well-deserved respect in baseball? Not to mention that Pena plays terrific defense. That seems to always be left off the table.
And, for pure aesthetics, Pena has one of the best swings to watch since Griffey Jr.
That said, to the main point: The Rays have built a system that lets them replace guys after they’ve gotten too expensive.
Too bad they didn’t play in a better market/ city, or else they’d be able to hold onto all their stars/ potential stars, and would become a real powerhouse in the AL East.
I don’t like the idea of a Rays team without Pena, Upton, or Crawford.
As it is, no matter who they lose, they’re still going to be in it for years. Maybe one of those years they’ll win it all. It’s entirely possible.
Sign Pena to a 3 year, 24 mio. deal (8-8-8) with 1 option (8 mio./2 mio. buyout)!
Sign Jennings to a 6 year, 21.5 mio. deal (0.5-1-2-4-6-8) with 2 options (each 10 mio.)
Sign Zobrist to a 4 year, 29 mio. deal (4-6-8-11) with 2 options (each 13 mio.)
Sign Bartlett to a 2 year, 15 mio. deal (7-8) with 1 option (8 to 10 mio. or so)
Re-Sign Balfour for 2 years, 5-6 mio. deal (each 2.5 or 3)
Let Crawford walk if he doesn’t sign for 12 (which he won’t), Let Soriano walk if he doesn’t sign for 6 mio. (which he won’t), Let Burrell walk, Make Niemann a reliever and put Hellboy in the rotation, try to sign/trade for a catcher and a power bat (trade leverage: e.g.: Brignac)
Assuming the Rays are out of contention I would look to deal Crawford and Pena, let Burrell walk and resign Soriano if he puts up good numbers. Crawford and Pena would bring in a lot of talent and help the team in the long run.
In response to the Bodley article, the real issue is that too many teams exist & beyond that too many in non-viable locations in the 21st century. I’m sure Cleveland & Pittsburgh were fine cities at one time & many years ago less disparity existed between the sizes of burgeoning markets, but if all teams were uprooted & the numbers reduced, would anyone place one in either of those locations?
Teams shouldn’t be punished for being successful & forced to give up money they earned to sustain the existence of other organisations while receiving no reciprocal benefit. Perhaps something should exist where teams can join a list where they obtain revenue sharing but have to forfeit draft picks in return for the cash. Those picks are then put into a lottery & distributed amongst the teams paying into the revenue sharing pool. Otherwise, just eliminate some teams, strengthen the overall talent pool & ultimately the game of baseball.
The problem with the Rays isn’t that they are in the same division as the Yankees or Red Sox, they proved 2 years ago they can compete. The problem with the Rays is where they play. Tropicana field isn’t anywhere close to what a major league teams calls its home stadium. They are also all the way over on the west coast in St Pete and not in Tampa. If they moved over to the middle to east side of Tampa then they would draw more people and could include Orlando as part of their fan base. Right now those of us who live in Orlando don’t consider the Rays a local team. Its over 1 and half hours to get to teh stadium from western Orlando. By building a stadium more centrally located in Tampa they could increase attendance and thus increase payroll. They have done remarkably well with poor attendance in a poor quality stadium.