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Nightengale’s Latest: Martinez, Encarnacion, Darvish, Arrieta

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As sparring continues over the ongoing free agent freeze — see Boras v. Halem, Clark v. Manfred — Bob Nightengale of USA Today takes an interesting look at how he believes the market might shake out for the top available players. His overall analysis and predictions are well worth a look, but a few items of information bear highlighting as part of the market landscape.

  • Slugger J.D. Martinez was the focus of a skirmish yesterday in the war of words, with some sparring over the fact that the Red Sox have not upped their longstanding offer — which evidently still stands at a previously reported five-year, $125MM level. Per Nightengale, the only other offer on the table right now is from the Diamondbacks, but it’s just a one-year deal. Clearly, all involved have reason to anticipate that there’d be greater interest than that from other organizations, but it’s a notable point in relation to Martinez’s hopes for generating pressure on the Sox.
  • Notably, too, the Red Sox are perhaps still aware of other means of fulfilling their desire for right-handed power. Nightengale says the organization spoke with the Indians earlier in the offseason about a potential deal that would have brought Edwin Encarnacion to Boston. Whether or not there’s any plausible hope of reviving those discussions isn’t clear, though, and the Sox are said not to have been willing to send Jackie Bradley Jr. to Cleveland. Clearly, that’s no surprise, as Bradley is a much younger and more affordable player who still offers plenty of value to the Sox. Indeed, it’s amply arguable that Bradley is a more valuable overall performer than is Encarnacion.
  • Top free agent starter Yu Darvish is sitting on multiple five-year offers, per Nightengale. At the moment, he’s still hoping an organization will decide to give him an extra year — or, in a longer-shot scenario, that the Dodgers or Yankees will find a way to move other contracts to open the door to a Darvish signing. For the most part, this seems to represent a continuation of the status quo, as is the case for the other top starters.
  • As for Jake Arrieta, we have not heard a ton of public chatter. There isn’t much new, it seems, but Nightengale does suggest that one hypothetical possibility isn’t likely: the incumbent Cubs have “barely even engaged in contract talks” with their former staff ace, per the report. That is not very surprising, of course. The sides already know one another (and their respective bargaining positions) quite well. And it’s clear that, while a reunion has always remained hypothetically possible, both team and player intended to explore alternatives during the winter. Still, it’s notable that they have evidently not circled back around to one another to this point.

Latest On Jaime Garcia

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SUNDAY, 12:41pm: Add the Brewers to the list of teams interested in Garcia, per Crasnick (Twitter link).

10:34am: Minnesota and Atlanta continue to discuss Garcia, but the Twins are also focusing on starters from other teams, Wolfson indicates (on Twitter).

SATURDAY, 1:32pm: Righty Nick Burdi was involved in the deal, Rosenthal tweets. Burdi had Tommy John surgery in late May and will be out until next season. The Braves already obviously would have been aware of that, and they haven’t shied away from acquiring injured pitchers in the past (such as Max Fried, who they got when they traded Justin Upton to the Padres in the 2014-15 offseason). So perhaps the player whose medicals they took issue with was someone else. It’s still possible, though, that they saw less than they hoped for in Burdi’s medical reports. The 24-year-old Burdi had an 0.53 ERA, 10.6 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 17 relief innings with Double-A Chattanooga before the injury.

11:30am: Talks between the Braves and Twins came to an impasse due to a medical issue the Braves had with a prospect they would have received from the Twins, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. The two sides are currently considering other options, though they could return to the table at some point.

FRIDAY 8:34pm: All indications are that Garcia will take the ball for Atlanta tonight. The front office is in contact with a half-dozen organizations regarding the lefty at present, Feinsand tweets.

3:04pm: It is still possible that the Twins will acquire Garcia, though MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports that such a trade is “not probable.”

2:35pm: Garcia will make his scheduled start for the Braves tonight against the Dodgers, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  Talks are still ongoing between the Braves and other teams about Garcia’s services, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports, so a late deal could still happen.  Aaron Blair was scratched from a minor league start yesterday and is in Los Angeles to make a spot outing should Garcia be scratched at the last minute.

9:32am: Teams besides the Twins are still talking to the Braves about Garcia, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (via Twitter).  It isn’t known who the other clubs in the mix are, though earlier today, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweeted that the Astros and Royals were two of the the teams that had previously shown interest in Garcia.  Kansas City, however, now appears to be more focused on acquiring a right-handed starter.

TODAY, 7:14am: No deal has been finalized between the two sides as of this morning, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports.

THURSDAY, 8:24pm: Minnesota is “very likely” to take over all of Garcia’s remaining salary (about $4.7MM), per 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson (via Twitter).

7:42pm: For what it’s worth, Garcia is still in a Braves’ uniform tonight, Kevin McAlpin of the Braves Radio Network tweets. Of course, that doesn’t mean the deal isn’t nearing completion; he isn’t scheduled to start until tomorrow.

6:44pm: It’s possible the Twins will be receiving an additional player in the deal, per LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune (via Twitter), though it seems that’d likely be a lower-level player of some kind.

6:12pm: It seems the swap is done except for the formalities. It’s being finalized right now, tweets Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, while MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger adds on Twitter that the sides are currently waiting on medical assessments. Atlanta will be receiving a minor-league player in return, he adds.

5:51pm: Minnesota is closing in on a deal for Garcia, Rosenthal tweets.

5:46pm: Amidst ongoing rumors that Braves starter Jaime Garcia may be dealt in short order, the Twins are engaged in discussions on the veteran southpaw, according to Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network (via Twitter). It’s not apparent at this point whether other teams are still involved or whether an agreement could be nearing completion.

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Garcia is probably one of the better rental starters on a market that doesn’t have many of great interest (pending the availability of Yu Darvish). I’d generally concur with MLBTR’s readers, who rated him alongside Jeremy Hellickson, and behind Trevor Cahill and Marco Estrada, in a poll yesterday.

Over his 106 innings this year, Garcia has pitched to a 4.33 ERA with 6.9 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 along with a healthy 54.7% groundball rate. At times, previously, he has shown a fair bit more, but that sort of output likely represents a reasonable expectation moving forward for Garcia, who the Braves acquired over the winter after a long run with the Cardinals.

Those looking for upside will note that Garcia does carry an 11.5% swinging-strike rate that is more reminiscent of his prime-level work. And it’s important to note that he has been plenty durable recently after experiencing several seasons marred by shoulder troubles.

While Garcia doesn’t necessarily excite, he should represent a sturdy option for a club that needs good innings down the stretch. That’s the case for Minnesota, which finds itself firmly in the AL Central (and AL Wild Card) hunt despite a generally underwhelming overall performance — particularly from its pitching staff.

The Twins just lost Phil Hughes back to the DL, where Hector Santiago also resides. Neither has been effective when healthy, and the same holds of Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia — whose palatable 4.22 ERA isn’t supported by the peripherals. That leaves just two reliable rotation pieces in Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios. The Twins did just add former Braves hurler Bartolo Colon, though it’s anybody’s guess what he’ll provide.

While the Minnesota front office has focused more on the possibility of acquiring a controllable starter, it has acknowledged that rentals could also be pursued in the right circumstances. “We’re probably not going to be inclined to spend lavishly on short-term assets,” GM Thad Levine explained recently, “but we would be very open to spending aggressively on assets that we could use to propel our team forward this year and for years to come.”

Garcia would help shore things up for the rest of the season, but he’ll head to free agency thereafter. If Levine’s statement still holds, then, it seems reasonable to anticipate that the Twins won’t be sending a big package to acquire Garcia — who, it should be noted, is earning at a hefty $12MM rate this year. Taking on some salary now, though, may be the preferred route to boosting the team’s chances at earning a surprise postseason spot, particularly if the demand for the few available top-end controllable pitchers is as great as it seems.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL Central Notes: Schwarber, Brewers, Liriano

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Injured Cubs slugger Kyle Schwarber probably isn’t going anywhere this summer, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein gave strong signals that he’s got little interest in seeing Schwarber return from his knee injury in another uniform. While there’s always plenty of posturing this time of year, Epstein certainly made clear that there’s a higher-than-usual barrier to a trade involving the catcher/outfielder.

Here’s more from the NL Central:

  • The Brewers are winding up for what looks to be an important trade deadline, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reports. Milwaukee has several notable names that rate amongst the top twenty trade candidates this summer, but few represent straightforward decisions. GM David Stearns says that “the calls have picked up over the last week to ten days,” though it’s “still largely informational.” Right now, the club is getting a feel for the teams it is looking to target in reaching agreements over the coming month. “You try to get a sense of what other clubs are doing, where you might have fits, so you can begin to do additional target work on certain target organizations,” says Stearns. “At this point, we feel well-prepared in terms of organizations we’re likely to have serious discussions with.”
  • Selling was never in the plans for the Pirates, but the club increasingly looks to be in a tough spot — in no small part due to the struggles of lefty Francisco Liriano, who owns a 5.33 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 5.9 BB/9 on the year. Manager Clint Hurdle tells John Perrotto of the Beaver County Times that Liriano is still failing to command the ball with consistency. “Sometimes, it’s hard to pitch when you aren’t feeling the way you’ve felt when you’ve had success,” Hurdle said. “We’re going to continue to peel back the layers and try to push through this. We’ll continue to look at video. We’ll see if we can find some answers.” We have heard at least some suggestion that there’d be interest around the league in the talented lefty, who had turned in three-straight stellar campaigns heading into 2016. But he’s owed $13MM both this year and next, and surely any acquiring team would be looking for a buy-low opportunity.

Mets Deep In Talks On Neil Walker With Pirates

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2:16pm: Then again, Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears a deal is indeed near. (Twitter link.)

2:05pm: Ackert’s source now tells her a deal is “definitely in the works” but is “not close to being done.” (Twitter link.)

2:02pm: The Mets are “closing in” on a deal for Walker, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports (via Twitter).

1:00pm: It appears that the Pirates are targeting starting pitching in any deal for Walker, according to a series of reports.

Jon Niese of the Mets is one name that has come up in talks as a “possible return” for Walker, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports on Twitter. He’s owed $9MM for the coming season, which is close to Walker’s expected cost, and can also be controlled via successive $10MM and $11MM options.

As for the Angels, it’s not clear which of several possible players could make the most sense. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times suggests on Twitter that Hector Santiago would make for a “good fit” in Pittsburgh, but I’d have to think the Bucs would need to add to Walker to pry him free. Meanwhile, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review notes in a tweet that C.J. Wilson could be a part of a trade, though he notes that the Halos would have to add cash for that to line up.

Meanwhile, the Nationals do have interest but it is “nothing serious,” per MLB.com’s Bill Ladson (via Twitter).

11:35am: The Angels are also among the teams with strong interest, according to reports from Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter) and Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (Twitter link). The Dodgers also have interest, he adds, though it’s not as significant.

11:22am: The Nationals have joined the Mets with interest in Pirates second baseman Neil Walker, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. Both teams heavily pursued Ben Zobrist in free agency and are now apparently looking at backup options.

Notably, the Mets were spurned by Zobrist despite feeling confident that they would get a deal done. And the Nationals joined the Giants in topping the offer that he eventually took with the Cubs, according to a report from James Wagner of the Washington Post. It’s apparent, then, that both clubs had serious interest.

Given that the division rivals were said to be looking at Zobrist primarily as a second baseman, Walker represents a less-versatile, less-accomplished, but younger alternative. The 30-year-old is also a switch hitter, though he’s been far better against righties than lefties. He’s never put up the numbers that Zobrist has at the plate, but does own a strong .272/.338/.431 career batting line.

Walker is quite a different asset from Zobrist, though, as he’s only under team control for one more season. MLBTR projects that he could command $10.7MM through the arbitration process.

Pittsburgh also had talks with the Orioles, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review tweets, but those discussions were ended when they failed to develop any traction.

AL East Notes: Orioles, Samardzija, Soria, Carrasco, Latos

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Despite very public statements indicating that the team is all in on 2015, the Orioles are now giving “serious consideration” to selling, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. As Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports notes (Twitter links), Baltimore owner Peter Angelos has previously been disinclined to authorize such a move, but that could change (at least in theory) with several of the team’s better players set to reach free agency. Of course, executive vice president Dan Duquette said on Wednesday that his club will be a buyer. But a sweep at the hands of the division-leading Yankees has certainly impacted the team’s chances of making a run at the AL East.

Here’s more from the division:

  • The Blue Jays remain in “active discussions” with the White Sox about right-hander Jeff Samardzija, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter link). The Jays have been said to have “strong” interest in adding Samardzija, a potential free agent at the end of the season. Upgrading the pitching staff is the Blue Jays’ top priority in the week leading up to the trade deadline, and Samardzija, whose eight-inning gem on Thursday dropped his ERA to 3.91, would certainly do that. Over his past eight outings, Samardzija has a 2.55 ERA, and he’s lasted at least seven innings in each of those contests. As Peter Gammons pointed out earlier today on Twitter, for a team with bullpen woes in addition to rotation troubles, adding a pitcher that is capable of effectively working deep into games should carry even greater appeal.
  • If the Tigers do end up selling, the Blue Jays will have interest in closer Joakim Soria, tweets Anthony Fenech of the Detroit News. Soria would be a pure rental, as he’s a free agent at the end of the year. He’s earning $7MM and has posted an even 3.00 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in his 39 innings this season, though he’s also had an unusually difficult time with home runs, which could make pitching at the Rogers Centre a challenge.
  • The Blue Jays’ pursuit of Scott Kazmir illustrates that it’s “becoming more clear” that the team is open to a rental acquisition, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Davidi notes that the Kazmir talks were never going to get off the ground based on the asking price — “think Jeff Hoffman or Daniel Norris,” says Davidi — especially considering Kazmir’s injury scares. Health concerns are another reason to wonder if the Blue Jays will seriously pursue Johnny Cueto or not, he adds. While the Blue Jays may be warming to the idea of a rental arm, they can’t afford to have their acquisition miss any time, and Cueto’s had a pair of minor elbow issues in 2015.
  • While the Blue Jays made a “big push” to land Carlos Carrasco from the Indians, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link), the trade simply “didn’t get done.” Cleveland isn’t necessarily motivated to trade a starter, though they’re also not entirely ruling out the possibility.
  • The Yankees have shown at least some interest in Marlins righty Mat Latos, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports on Twitter. They join a growing list of clubs that have shown some inclination to take a chance on Latos’s resurgence and past success. New York has given public indication that it is not lining up any major moves, but it would be surprising if it does not at least make a few acquisitions at areas of need, and rotation depth could certainly make sense.

Astros Nearing Deal With Ryan Vogelsong

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11:15pm: Drellich tweets that a deal with Vogelsong would be for one year, if it is ultimately finalized.

6:57pm: Nothing is likely to get finalized tonight, tweets Drellich. Meanwhile, Berman adds that Vogelsong is no longer in Houston, though he doesn’t specify how the physical went.

TUESDAY, 8:42am: Vogelsong and the Astros are nearing a deal but are still addressing the final details of the arrangement, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick.

MONDAY, 10:44pm: Vogelsong is in Houston presently, tweets Mark Berman of FOX 26. He declined comment on his situation with the club, per Berman.

6:07pm: Vogelsong is a “realistic option,” but nothing is expected to be wrapped up tonight, Drellich tweets.

5:40pm: The Astros are in “serious discussions” with free agent righty Ryan Vogelsong, sources tell Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reported earlier today that Houston was not done with its roster, noting that a pitching addition was possible and that Vogelsong was a player the club had confirmed interest in.

Houston added some rotation depth today by dealing for a package that included former MLB starter Dan Straily. But the team is obviously still looking for innings.

Vogelsong, 37, has been a steady presence at the back of the Giants’ bullpen since re-emerging with a stunning season back in 2011. Though his results have been up and down, he has averaged 164 frames per year of 3.74 ERA ball, to go with a 3.92 FIP on the back of 7.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. And it is worth noting both that Vogelsong has posted fairly consistent regular season velocity figures (and was able to amp up his fastball into the mid-90s during the postseason.

NL West Notes: Tomas, Padres Backstops, Kemp, Giants

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The Giants were the runners up in the pursuit of Yasmany Tomas, who earlier today reportedly agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks, according to a Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). For their $68.5MM, Arizona is getting a player with undeniable upside, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick writes after speaking with three scouting sources.

  • The Padres are receiving a “ton of inquiries” on backstops Yasmani Grandal, Rene Rivera, and Austin Hedges, according to a tweet from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Each member of that trio has his own particular appeal, along with factors that hold down their trade value.
  • In other Padres news, Rosenthal notes (Twitter links) that he has received additional confirmation that San Diego had engaged with talks on Matt Kemp with the Dodgers. He hastens to add that these discussions were not “that recent” and that nothing is close to getting done, as the Friars continue to turn over a number of rocks in search of upgrades after missing on Pablo Sandoval and Tomas. Los Angeles would presumably have interested in arms and catching were talks to move forward.
  • The Giants will indeed seek to apply the money they hoped to spend on Sandoval or Tomas toward another top-end free agent, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reported this morning (before the Tomas signing was reported). As reported yesterday, the club is opening a broad search for a way to bolster its roster, aided by a bloated purse from winning the team’s third World Series in five seasons.

Astros, Tigers Trade Talks On Catcher Did Not Progress

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1:08pm: The discussions occurred before Detroit exercised Avila’s option and did not progress, reports Jason Beck of MLB.com.

12:22pm: The Astros and Tigers have had “preliminary trade contact” regarding backstops, according to a report from Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). The report indicates that the discussion involves the possibility of a catcher moving from Houston to Detroit.

The Tigers, of course, have reportedly expressed a willingness to listen on their own incumbent behind the dish, Alex Avila. The left-handed-hitting veteran, still just 27 years old, has battled concussions of late and has seen his offensive production decline from a 2011 peak. Bryan Holaday and the rising James McCann are also factors in Detroit’s backstop mix.

For its part, Houston has a bevy of options at the catching position after dealing for Hank Conger. The club is said to have placed a high asking price on starter Jason Castro, while preferring to deal Carlos Corporan. The younger Max Stassi is also a major league option for the Astros.

Discussion: The Braves’ Pitching Surplus

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In the first trade of the offseason, the Braves shed $5MM of payroll when they shipped Derek Lowe to the Indians and agreed to pick up $10MM of his $15MM salary for 2012.  It was a deal that gave GM Frank Wren & Co. some much needed breathing room, and one that couldn't have been made without a good deal of pitching depth.

Even without Lowe in the mix, Atlanta still has a rotation headlined by Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens.  There are plenty of young hurlers available in support, including Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado , Arodys Vizcaino, Brandon Beachy, and Tommy Hanson.  While Atlanta would certainly like to avoid rushing their young pitchers into taking on major workloads, they might be better served by turning their pitching wealth into offense in 2012.

Wren claims to be content with his stockpile of arms and even though interest in Jurrjens is high, the GM is reportedly asking for a Zack Greinke-like return for the oft-injured 25-year-old.  While the Braves could come away with a solid package for Jurrjens, it's overly optimistic to put the youngster's value on a par with Greinke's. 

The Braves are looking to make a few upgrades in their lineup and would like to move on from shortstop Alex Gonzalez if they can.  They'd also like to land themselves a young center fielder as insurance if they can't retain Michael Bourn when he hits the open market after next season.  Wren would obviously love to keep Jurrjens as part of the starting five, but he can absolutely afford to flip him in order to improve elsewhere.

Discussion: How Many Aces In MLB?

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A week ago I kicked off a discussion among MLBTR writers about how many true ace starting pitchers there are in baseball.  I was surprised to find that my own off-the-cuff list totaled 18, with another eight falling into my "borderline" group.  My list of aces, in no particular order:

Adam Wainwright
Roy Halladay
Cole Hamels
Roy Oswalt
Cliff Lee
C.C. Sabathia
Dan Haren
Jered Weaver
Josh Johnson
Justin Verlander
Felix Hernandez
Jon Lester
David Price
Tim Lincecum
Chris Carpenter
Clayton Kershaw
Matt Cain
Tommy Hanson

My borderline group:

John Danks
Yovani Gallardo
Brett Anderson
Ricky Romero
Zack Greinke
Ubaldo Jimenez
Francisco Liriano
Trevor Cahill

I didn't crunch any numbers here – just good old-fashioned gut feelings.  But could there really be almost 20 ace starters in MLB?  Let's see your list in the comments.

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