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Season Notes: Pandemic, Rules, Rays, Attendance

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Teams have their hands full today with the opening of the international signing period, as well as the now-passed deadline for arbitration agreements. While we sift through those financials, here’s the latest on how the pandemic continues to affect the sport…

  • MLB hopes to bring back seven-inning doubleheaders and the runner-on-second-base extra-inning rule, writes USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. The league is advocating for a continuation of these rules specifically for fear of the coronavirus continuing to affect the schedule. The league also seems to be in favor of keeping the universal DH and expanded playoffs, though those issues are still being discussed. No rule changes are made official, of course, until the league comes to an agreement with the MLBPA. The debate around expanded playoffs seems particularly challenging right now, as a greater playoff field, in some minds, actually de-incentivizes teams from spending in free agency since they have a greater margin for error. Reduced spending on free agents is a hot button issue right now, and it’s going to be the lens through which the players view many of the topics under discussion for 2021. Nightengale notes that there’s at least a chance that MLB ends up with the same rules in 2021 as in 2020, with the exception of roster sizes dropping back down from 29 to 26.
  • The Rays are planning to allow roughly 7,000 fans per game in 2021, socially distanced and wearing masks, of course, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Of course, much can change between now and April, but the hope is that greater vaccine rollouts can mitigate the number of breakouts around the country. The Rays plan to re-open part of their upper deck seating to help keep fans appropriately distanced. The Rays are prepping best they can to allow fans in for games, but it will still come down to getting approval from MLB and government authorities. The Rays hope to have more information about ticketing ready before the end of February.

MLB Payrolls Dropped A Collective $2.47 Billion In 2020

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Per the latest report from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press, payrolls across MLB fell from $4.22 billion in 2019 to $1.75 billion during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. The Dodgers’ $98.6MM payroll, Blum notes, clocked in as the highest mark among the game’s 30 teams. The Yankees finished second with a payroll of $86.3MM.

Of course, the 60-game season meant prorating pay, dropping player salaries by approximately 63% from the full-scale amount. The totals given here mark a roughly 59% year-over-year decrease, suggesting payrolls would have increased had there been a full season. 2018 brought the first year-over-year decrease in payroll since 2010, as Blum reported at the time.

One complicating factor was a rise in buyout options. As Blum writes, “Buyouts of unexercised 2021 options came to $58.2 million, more than double the $26.9 million for buyouts of unexercised 2020 options, a sign of expense-cutting amid the revenue loss.” That’s not a surprise, given the sudden change in expected revenues without fans present, but it is noteworthy.

Parsing owners’ financial positions after this season’s revenue losses will continue to be a topic of discussion as free agency moves forward at its glacial pace. Without transparency from owners, the exact losses are difficult to ascertain. These numbers – presuming their accuracy – do serve as a significant data point, however.

The question of finances has been and will continue to be one of the sticking points between MLB and the MLBPA as the two sides near the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement. Transparency has been at the center of the debate, as owners have resisted the call from players to make their finances public. The Braves, as a publicly traded company, are the only team whose finances are made public in the form of quarterly reports, as Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards reviewed in early December. Of course, only so much can be gleaned from a single team’s financial numbers.

Giants More Likely To Buy Than Sell

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The San Francisco Giants are no longer viewed around the league as a team ripe for picking, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). In fact, it’s now more likely that the Giants will look to add to their club rather than subtract.

At 15-19 the Giants sit 9 games back from the Dodgers for the division, but they’re only 2 games out of a wild card spot. Powered by surprising production from the likes of Mike Yastrzemski (2.1 fWAR), Donovan Solano (0.8 fWAR), Kevin Gausman (0.9 fWAR), and Austin Slater (1.1 fWAR), the Giants have been a surprisingly potent offensive club. They’ve been competitive on a night-to-night basis, and less than two days away from the deadline, the Giants could still go either way depending on their play this weekend. As of right now, other clubs suspect they’ll be buyers.

The Giants certainly weren’t viewed as contenders entering the season, and most probably wouldn’t put them in that camp even after a surprisingly competitive start, but with an expanded playoff field, they are as viable a postseason contender as anyone outside of Pittsburgh in a crowded National League playoff race. If they do end up buying, it’s safe to assume the Giants will still have an eye towards contention in future seasons.

Earlier tonight the Giants were reported to have interest in Jackie Bradley Jr.. Bradley isn’t the ideal candidate because he’s a free agent after the season, but San Francisco has need enough in the grass that they could look to add multiple outfielders. With limited options coming from so few non-contenders, the Giants may also simply see value in competing this season and exploring the cost of an upgrade even for this season alone. Besides, a defensive outfielder who could slide Yastrzemski back to the corner would seem to benefit the club on the whole. Alex Dickerson has struggled in left field with a triple slash of .195/.284/.351, and since Hunter Pence was DFA’ed, they have no clear everyday option in right.

On the roster, Solano has played a little in left and Mauricio Dubon also added an outfielder’s glove to his locker this winter, but both are natural infielders. Chris Shaw and Jaylin Davis are another pair of potential outfielders in the pool, though Shaw is a more natural first baseman and neither have proven track records at the major league level. San Francisco did recently add Luis Alexander Basabe and Daniel Robertson to their player pool, but neither have joined the active roster as of yet. Even so, Basabe fits the second camp as an unproven entity, while Robertson fits the first as a natural infielder.

San Francisco could also look to add to their pitching corps, which has been less successful than the offense, broadly speaking. Most of the rotation outside of Logan Webb and Tyler Anderson are heading towards free agency – another reason most expected the Giants to sell – but they could use another rotation arm regardless. Tyler Beede, Jeff Samardzija, and Drew Smyly are all on the injured list at present, while Gausman and Johnny Cueto have injury histories and Trevor Cahill left his start early today with left hip discomfort, per Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com.

Quick Hits: COVID-19, Red Sox, Catching, Rays, Meadows Extension Talks

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Commissioner Rob Manfred has a conference call planned with MLB owners on Monday to discuss the coronavirus, but all indications point to the season opening as planned, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich. MLB has been in contact with the CDC, and each team has a specified point person in charge of their specific situations. Locker room protocol across the North American sports landscape has been adjusted to help protect players from COVID-19, and fan access to players has also been limited as a precaution (though some players have prepared pre-signed autographs for fans at spring games). In Italy, all sporting events are planned to move forward without fans present, and the NBA has begun preparations for such a circumstance as well. As of right now, MLB plans to have fans present as the regular season kicks off at the end of March, but a lot can obviously change over the next three weeks.

  • In non-virus news, catchers around the league are giving umpires a better view to call balls and strikes by receiving from a knee instead of the traditional crouch, per Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. Christian Vazquez employed the stance for the Red Sox some last year, and the returns were good. He finished fifth in statcast’s Runs from Extra Strikes metric, trailing only Roberto Perez, Yasmani Grandal, Tyler Flowers and Austin Hedges, the latter of whom led the field by a substantial margin. Red Sox interim manager Ron Roenicke notes that receiving from a knee makes it tougher to block pitches, but the premium placed on stealing strikes makes the tradeoff worth it on the whole. 
  • In contract news, the Rays and Austin Meadows have begun preliminary discussions about a potential extension, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Both sides are open to the possibility, though talks have not yet reached the exchange-of-numbers stage. After a monster 2019, Meadows won co-MVP honors for the team and proved himself a key offensive cog moving forward. Meadows slashed .291/.364/.558 with 33 home runs and 89 RBIs (142 wRC+) in 2019. Locking up the soon-to-be 25-year-old would certainly be a boon for an organization ever-mindful of its financial limitations.

MLBTR Poll: Did The Red Sox Improve Their Return For Mookie Betts?

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Five days ago, the Boston Red Sox almost traded 2018 MVP Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers in a three-team deal. As we now know, that trade fell apart. Today, it was replaced by a new deal. This time, the Red Sox and Dodgers took matters into their own hands while Los Angeles satisfied their other agreements in a separate deal with the Twins (while yet another portion of the deal was scrapped altogether). 

The earth-shattering move here is Boston dealing a former MVP in his prime. Though the Dodgers are only acquiring one season at $27MM, their books are relatively clean, and if nothing else, they are the prohibitive favorite to sign him long-term sometime next winter. But whether the Red Sox were wise to deal their young star – a player with 42 bWAR already on his resume – is not up for debate in this space. There’s clearly lots to sort out in cataloguing the pieces brought in by Dodgers’ President of Baseball Ops Andrew Friedman. But this isn’t the venue for that discussion either.

The financial aspect of this deal is difficult to process for many reasons. It’s no small feat to rid $75MM from the ledger in one fell swoop as the Red Sox did today. And yet, that the Boston Red Sox would be financially motivated to move one of the best players in the sport is beyond comprehension. Still, the financial numbers stayed relatively the same from version one to version two of this deal, so that can be tabled as well for now. 

This space is all about parsing the Red Sox’ return. Let’s quickly review the specifics.

In version one, the Red Sox were to receive two players: Alex Verdugo from the Dodgers and Brusdar Graterol from the Twins.  This time around, prospects Jeter Downs and Connor Wong are heading to Boston with Verdugo. Without seeing the medical reports that gave the Red Sox pause over Graterol, the two frameworks provide a fun what-if for the rest of us to ponder. The question here is obvious: should the Red Sox have stuck with Graterol? Or did they improve their return by swapping in Downs and Wong?

Graterol surged through the Twins’ system last season, reaching the majors less than a week after his 21st birthday. The hard-throwing righty earned his keep in a small sample, striking out 10 batters in 9 2/3 innings and finishing with a 4.66 ERA/3.42 FIP. MLB.com put him at #83 on their top 100 prospects list, while Baseball America came in a little more bullish with a #60 overall ranking. His talent isn’t in doubt – not with a sinker and four-seamer both clocked at 99 mph – but questions about his long-term health drove the the Red Sox to check behind door number two. If Graterol’s ceiling is that of a bullpen fireman, that’s a valuable asset – especially come playoff time. But even a move to the bullpen doesn’t guarantee the long-term viability of his right arm. Still, pitchers with Graterol’s stuff are rare birds and valuable commodities – even with one arm surgery already on the books.

Then there’s door number two. Downs had a big season at High-A last year after the Dodgers acquired him as the tax for taking on Homer Bailey in the Alex Wood/Yasiel Puig trade with the Reds. The 21-year-old Downs hit .269/.354/.507 in High-A before earning a promotion to Double-A in 2019. He showed well there, too, though only in a 12-game sample. He is likely to begin the year at Double-A for the Red Sox, but he’s climbing prospect boards. MLB.com put him at #44 overall, while Baseball America has him at #86. Most outlets peg him as the second baseman of the future, though he’s played more shortstop than second to this point.

Wong, 23, started the year at High-A last season as well. He finished exceptionally strong, however, putting up an impressive .349/.393/.604 line through 40 games in Double-A. Despite those gaudy numbers, he’s not as highly ranked. His power is legit, but he does strike out nearly 30% of the time, and he’s not yet walking at an average rate. Fangraphs’ had him as the Dodger’s #13 ranked prospect last season with a future value score of 40+, talent level appropriate for a bench role. For contract, Fangraphs has both Downs and Grateral with a 50 FV score. Were those ratings to come to fruition, Downs would project as an average regular, while Graterol could project as a back-end starter or potential late-inning reliever.

The debate largely centers on how much one wants to gamble on a high-end pitcher. But even the aerial view minimizes how much this deal really hinges upon the specific players involved.

To add one final wrinkle to this question, let me add this tweet from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. He says, “A number of baseball people saying #RedSox did well. Verdugo, Downs, project as regulars; Wong has good arm, power. Also moved half Price’s money. Deal at least comparable to what #DBacks got for Goldy, who cost less than Betts in walk year and had no other contracts attached.”

Whether you agree with Rosenthal’s people or not, the Paul Goldschmidt deal is certainly an interesting touchstone. Just a year ago, the Diamondbacks received Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver, Andy Young and a competitive balance round B draft selection in exchange for one season of Goldy. For simplified context, Betts is a 27-year-old stellar defensive right fielder coming off a 6.8 bWAR season, while Goldschmidt was a 31-year-old first baseman coming off a 5.4 bWAR season.

Of course, the dollar savings factor into a comparison to the Goldschmidt trade, as Goldy made just $14.5MM last season. The Diamondbacks trade was motivated more about returning value for a player they weren’t likely to extend. The Red Sox motivations are similar, though they’re also getting out from under David Price’s contract. Not for nothing, but Price remains a viable major league starter.

Also muddying the waters here is how one views Verdugo’s future. He’s long been a player projected for stardom, though a deep player pool and injuries slowed his ascent in Los Angeles. And there remain questions about his overall makeup as well. Still, he’ll turn just 24-years-old in May, and it wasn’t long ago that he was the top prospect in a Dodgers’ system that has continued to churn out big league players.

Last season was his first with regular playing time, and he made good with a .294/.342/.475 line with 12 home runs in 106 games before an oblique strain cost him most of the rest of the year. He’s got great bat-to-ball skills, and his defense is solid enough that he can man centerfield for a time if that’s a need. He’s a promising young player, but he’ll have big shoes to fill in Boston.

I’m giving you the chance to overrule Boston’s Chief Baseball Office Chaim Bloom. Which return would you prefer?

(Poll link for app users)

(Poll link for app users)

 

Latest on Padres And Mookie Betts

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The Padres continue to push for another star as they engage in trade discussions with the Red Sox for Mookie Betts and the Pirates for Starling Marte. The newest tidbit comes for MLB Network insider Jon Heyman who tweets that the Padres are more likely to move Luis Patino than MacKenzie Gore. To be clear, Heyman also notes that trading top prospects for one year of Betts doesn’t make intuitive sense for the Padres. They are – at the very least – interested and exploring the cost.

What we can really glean from Heyman’s tweet is more about the internal hierarchy with which the Padres view their system. Though the implication is that the Padres would consider moving Patino for Betts, that’s far from explicit and runs counter to most of the scuttlebutt coming out of San Diego.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, have expressed interest in catching prospect Luis Campusano, Baseball America’s #79 ranked prospect, tweets The Athletic’s Dennis Lin. That might be a more reasonable place to start, depending on the money changing hands in any potential deal. Campusano would be a solid get in any deal after putting together a .325/.396/.509 year as a 20-year-old in High-A.

As for Marte, reports over the last couple of days have been conflicting to an almost comical degree. News from the Mets and Padres – the two noted teams of interest – both evoked cooling interest due to asking price. Heyman, meanwhile, reported that the talks have “intensified,” which in trade parlance usually connotes positivity, though literally speaking, intensity doesn’t necessarily imply progress. Speculatively speaking, it appears there may be a little gamesmanship as one side or all three may be doing what they can to push negotiations in their direction.

AL Notes: Red Sox, Peraza, Mariners, Dipoto, Royals, Marklund

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Jose Peraza was almost a full win worse than replacement in 2019 (-0.9 bWAR, -0.6 fWAR), but the Red Sox signed him to a one-year, $3MM deal anyhow. The reason being the Red Sox see a speedy player who can play five positions who proved his competence against left-handed pitching even in a down year, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. His .269 xBA in 2019 also points to some bad luck (he finished with an actual batting average of just .239). Overlaying his spray chart over the Fenway Park map also suggests Peraza might benefit from the dimensions in Boston. All in all, the Red Sox don’t have the financial freedom this offseason to add a sure-thing superstar, and in Peraza they see a player coming off a down year capable of reaching another gear with a fresh start in Boston. Now, with a couple days left to lock in our new year’s resolutions, let’s check in elsewhere in the American League…

  • Seattle Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto did not let a blood clot scare keep him from swinging trades at last year’s winter meetings, but a year after the fact, those close to him do see changes in the man known as “Trader Jerry,” as told in this story from The Athletic’s Corey Brock. Since his stint in a Las Vegas hospital, Dipoto is taking better care of himself, sleeping more and better regulating a once-vigorous workout routine. He’s also been more collaborative with his assistant GMs, trusting them with more of the day-to-day trade discussions with other clubs. As when Jim Hendry signed Ted Lilly from his hospital bed, Dipoto’s bedside dealing has entered Mariners’ lore – but the reality is that Dipoto’s life was in danger, and without his co-workers there to help him to the hospital, there could have been a much more harrowing tale coming out of last year’s winter meetings.
  • Brandon Marklund has significantly improved his stock since signing up to play baseball in New Zealand for the Aukland Tautara, per The Athletic’s Alec Lewis.  Marklund caught the eye of a number of different organizations while pumping a 96mph heater for the Tautara, but it was the Royals’ Neil Burke who made the biggest push. Burke sums up his surprise in finding Marklund by saying, “What the heck is this Canadian kid who went to school somewhere in the States, who made his way out to New Zealand, who I’m watching pitch in Sydney, doing all the way out here in Australia?” The 23-year-old right-hander put up a sparkling 0.46 ERA in his first pro season stateside for the Royals’ Single-A affiliate.

Cubs Have Had Discussions With Josh Lindblom

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The Chicago Cubs have been in contact with free agent right-hander Josh Lindblom, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via twitter).

The possibility of a signing seems far fetched, however, as Morosi notes that other teams are further along in their discussions with Lindblom at this point. Not to mention, of course, the Cubs are notably frugal these days, making a quick strike signing for Lindblom unlikely. There is some interest on the Cubs’ part, however, and one would think Lindblom – an Indiana native – would be intrigued by the possibility of calling Wrigley Field home.

Though he’s not exactly among the most sought after nor bankable free agent arms on the market, Lindblom does come with an intriguing amount of upside after an MVP season in the Korean Baseball Organization. He was a 20-game winner in the KBO with a 2.50 ERA in 194 2/3 innings, this on the heels of a 15-4 season that carried a 2.88 ERA in 168 2/3 innings. That said, Lindblom is set to turn 33 in June, and his major league career prior to his success in the KBO consisted of a series of fly-by-night affairs. From 2011 until 2017, Lindblom suited up for the Dodgers, Phillies, Rangers, A’s, and Pirates. He did manage a palatable 4.10 ERA/4.27 FIP in 147 innings spread across five seasons.

There are a number of pitchers ahead of Lindblom in the free agent pecking order, but there’s enough need league-wide that he should have no trouble finding a home. MLBTR predicted he would secure a two-year, $8MM contract with the Astros, Brewers, Dodgers, Twins, Cubs and Angels all seeming like viable fits. Considering the scuttlebutt coming out of Chicago, however, even that modest commitment might be too rich for the Cubs until they shed some payroll.

Winter Meetings Previews: Royals, White Sox

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In advance of the winter meetings, let’s take a moment to quickly preview a couple teams from the American League Central…

  • The Kansas City Royals will look for value buys on the free agent market, per Lynn Worthy of The Kansas City Star. Given the sale of the team and the managerial transition underway, the Royals have more justification than usual for patience this offseason. With Kansas City, however, there’s often a sense that internal valuations of the talent on hand differs from those of the general public. The Royals continue to present the idea that they are happy with their core, an impression bolstered by the “moon, sun, and stars” type packages the Royals are demanding for players like Whit Merrifield, Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy. Senior VP of Baseball Ops & GM Dayton Moore refined his fence-walking trick recently while saying both, “…we’re very encouraged with where we are based on how our players performed individually last year,” and also, “I think we’ve got to upgrade everywhere, really.” Pitching is definitely a target, and Moore has been active in trade discussions already, enough to have a sense of where trades might happen – though from Moore’s comments, it seems the Royals are disinclined to be major players on the trade market unless opposing GMs become more amenable to Moore’s ask(s). They do have four open spots on the 40-man roster and should be active in the Rule 5 draft, per The Athletic’s Alec Lewis.
  • After being spurned by Zack Wheeler, the White Sox remain in the hunt for starting pitching, per MLB.com’s Scott Merkin. Chicago was also among the teams in on Jordan Lyles before the righty signed with the Rangers, tweets the MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Their rotation candidates are currently made up of high-ceiling but largely-unestablished youngsters, fronted by 2019 breakout superstar Lucas Giolito. Speculatively, Dallas Keuchel fits nicely from a culture perspective as the perennially-attention-starved White Sox have already added Yasmani Grandal from the nobody-believes-in-us free agent pool – and they like playing with a chip on their shoulder on the southside. As for position players, Chicago boasts close to a full house now that Grandal and Jose Abreu are officially on board. With prospects Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal expected to play a large portion of 2020 in the big leagues, they have one of the more intriguing groups on that side of the ball. Still, there’s definitely room to tinker around the edges, especially in the outfield, where Luis Alexander Basabe, Daniel Palka, Leury Garcia, Adam Engel, and Luis Gonzalez make up the flexible collection of candidates to join Eloy Jimenez and Robert in the outfield.

Quick Hits: Streaming Rights, Minor Leagues, KBO Changes

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MLB is opening up the streaming market, per Thomas Barrabi of Fox Business. Each team will now be allowed to sell its streaming rights to local markets prior to the 2020 season. The change marks another point in the slow but inevitable shift from broadcast to digital. Teams are still beholden to contractual agreements with regional sports networks, but the change will eventually empower teams with a potentially impactful degree of agency. The return of digital rights to the franchises themselves also ought to help the sport expand its digital footprint and allow for streaming on further platforms such as Amazon and YouTube, who enjoyed a successful partnership with MLB last season.

  • It may be the trade action that butters our bread here at MLB Trade Rumors, but for Major League Baseball itself, the Winter Meetings are an important venue for discussion of an array of league issues. Yesterday, for instance, MLB met with minor league reps for the first of many sessions negotiating the proposed new structure for the minor league system, per David Waldstein of the NY Times. The proposal on the table calls for large-scale retraction, which unsurprisingly does not sit well with minor league owners. There’s much progress to be made, and this will hardly be the last time these two sides meet to discuss this issue. MLB cannot force the retraction, but the current contract runs out in September, by which time the two sides hope to have a new agreement in place – though that’s hardly a sure thing.
  • Changes are coming to the KBO, per Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net (via Twitter). The Korean Baseball Organization Players’ Association voted to shorten the amount of service time needed to reach free agency from nine years to eight years for players entering out of high school and from eight years to seven years for those entering from college, per Yonhap News Agency. Another change apropos to those free agents still looking for clubs, the KBO will now allow three foreign players to appear in the same game. Presently, teams can roster three foreign players, but only two were allowed to appear in the same game. The change could embolden teams to be more aggressive in their pursuit of foreign players, especially given the success of a player like Josh Lindblom, who plans to return stateside after an MVP-winning season in the KBO. Other changes include the raising of the minimum salary and the implementation of an injured list. The KBOPA differs from the MLBPA in that it is not a union, though clearly, the leagues struggle with many of the same sticking points in negotiations with players.

 

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