Odds & Ends: Martinez, Rangers, Strasburg, Zambrano

(Moved over, replying to last post)

You cant compare the xFIP of Silva from 2004-2007 to the xFIP of Zambrano 2007-2009 and just say Silva is somehow better. You would be manipulating numbers.

First, what xFIP is – its FIP with a normalized HR rate. That is, what his FIP would be if he gave up merely a normal amount of HR. Thing is, take a look at Silva’s numbers, there is zero reason to think a normal HR rate should be expected – he consistently gives a very high rate because, well, (Expletive)y stuff. Meanwhile, Z has consistently given up well below average HR rates. So clearly, comparing them on xFIP is illogical, you would have to use FIP because we should not expect either pitcher to be a logical choice for a HR rate change.

So, we shouldn’t be using xFIP, but how about just the normal FIP? Well, what is FIP? FIP is fielding independent of course, and corrects for lower or higher BAbip rates. But looking at Silva, only once in his entire career has he had a below average BAbip, leaving 7 times where he has been average to well above average. So based off his career, realistically Silva should be expected to hold a BAbip somewhere in the .315 range, roughly 15 points higher then FIP adjusts for. Meanwhile Zambrano has posted a 300+ BAbip once in his career, and has otherwise consistently been in the 285 range or lower. Zambrano should, realistically, be expected to put a BAbip somewhere in the 285 range again.

But again, FIP normalizes BAbip to 300, where there is a consistent 30 point swing between the two players we are talking about.

So now we are to the point where we know FIP is the better choice for what we are going for, but we have to realize that Silva will almost certainly hit or under-perform it slightly (depending on how his HR rate goes) while Zambrano is a really safe bet to out-perform it as he has done constantly.

So what does that mean?
(reading backwards, so top = newest)
5.97
4.63
4.24
5.76
4.18
4.36

There is only one year where Silva beats Zambrano in FIP, and otherwise is constantly +0.50 higher. But that doesn’t account for the +/- the two players experience, so you can tack on another .25-.50 points. All of a sudden you have a pitcher that should be expected to have an ERA around a run higher then Zambrano. Not surprisingly, Silva has averaged an ERA 1.10 points higher.

And in 2010, we should expect the same. That is, Silva giving up about an extra run a game over Zambrano. There is just nothing, anywhere, that says we should expect otherwise – his (expletive)y stuff dictates as much. And yes, its (expletive)y stuff, and its proven by the career .302/.337/.465/.802 hitters have posted off him. Think about that, League Average AL hitters hit in the .270/.335/.425/.760 range but they hit Silva for a .802 OPS over 8 years. Now THATs (expletive)y stuff

Oh, and of course WAR is created off FIP. Knowing that we are talking about two of the very few players who defy FIP here, WAR gets thrown out the window – or at least needs to be adjusted.

One final note just because of the comedy in it:
“Silva + bad defense = problems.”
because our defense is fantastic, right? :/