We've been looking ahead to next year's rotations for the past month or so and here are the results:
AL East
AL Central
AL West
NL East
NL Central
- Cincinnati Reds
- Milwaukee Brewers
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Chicago Cubs
- Houston Astros
NL West
So, just going from this list and not assuming any free agent signings for any teams. Who has the best?
I think the Giants in the NL and the Red Sox in the AL
BS! A’s have a younger, much cheaper rotation. Overrated John Lackey with his albatross contract, and Beckett earning as much as 17 Mil as season a part of the best in the AL is hilarious. I don’t care how dominant Lester or Buchholz have been. Tampa also has better pitching.
I don’t think salary has much to do with this argument. And the Red Sox do have a better FIP than the A’s and Rays this season with Beckett pitching badly and I’m not convinced that he is suddenly done. Not saying that the Sox are the best but they still have a very good rotation. When you have 4 guys with sub FIPs at or just over 4.00 (Lackey and Dice K are under 4.04) you have a pretty good rotation. Plus with Beckett his peripherals are still good. His K/9, BB/9, and GB% are similar to last year when he had a 3.61 FIP he has just been terribly unlucky this year. His xFIP is a solid 3.87. And Dice K has pitched well outside of those first 4 starts where he gave up I think 19 runs in 19 innings. As far as top 5 guys this rotation is good. And with a 6th man like Doubront you still have to respect this rotation. Hardly BS.
Sorry but FIP or any advanced stats(that really do annoy me, not gonna lie, don’t know where these guys com up with them)don’t really agree with normal stats, better-known stats most of the time. Boston has a good rotation, Top 5 definetly in the AL, but not the best.
FIP basically takes whatever stats a pitcher can control (like K/9, HR/9, BB/9, GB%, LD%, and FB%) and turns them into a statistic similar to ERA. The problem with ERA is that it can be inflated by a high BABIP or a bad defense behind the pitcher. This takes a pitchers performance and determines what a pitcher’s ERA should be based on the above. xFIP is the same formula as FIP just the HR/9 rate is replaced with a league average HR/9. It is a better gauge for future performance of a pitcher. FIP is good to use because a pitcher can have a sub 3 ERA but has a low K/9 and BABIP (Which should normalize at some point) and should really be expected to have an ERA in the mid 3’s in a normal year.
What’s BABIP then.
Batting Average on Balls in Play. Pretty much self explanatory, it is a players batting average when they hit the ball in fair territory (not counting homeruns). It is based on the belief that 3/10 hits are going to be base hits. This can fluctuate but a hitter with an unsustainable .400 BABIP is likely to see a drop in batting average over time because they are lucky on hits. And for pitchers a .200 BABIP for opposing hitters is likely to rise too. There isn’t a set number on what a player’s BABIP but line drive hitters/speedsters have higher BABIP whereas fly ball hitters have lower BABIP since flyballs are hits less often.
Count on the Yankees and O’s having great rotations in the future. Both have good young pitching
I enjoyed this series of articles. Very in depth and a great job profiling all of the teams.
The Nats article should be updated to reflect Strasburg’s TJ, he’ll be a non-factor for 90% of the season.