The Orioles' 2011 rotation will likely feature many familiar faces, but the results could be noticeably different if Baltimore's young starters continue adapting to the challenges of the American League East. Because of baseball's unbalanced schedule, the Orioles face four of baseball's top ten offenses on a regular basis. Not coincidentally, Orioles starters rank 26th in the majors in ERA, 25th in innings, 24th in quality starts, 29th in strikeout to walk ratio and 29th in FIP.
For some teams, those results would call for an offseason overhaul, but the Orioles have a young rotation that's capable of improving considerably. Jeremy Guthrie, the team's most established starter, has a 4.10 ERA in four seasons in the AL East, so the Orioles have pencilled him in atop next year's rotation.
Current starters Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta and Brad Bergesen will all be in the mix for starting jobs, but Kevin Millwood hits free agency and could sign in a more pitcher-friendly environment. Even if Millwood leaves, the O's will have a number of internal options, as president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail points out.
"You’d add [Zach] Britton and you’d add [Chris] Tillman and you’d add [Rick] Vanden Hurk, and then there are others that could work their way in there, like [Troy] Patton," MacPhail told MLBTR.
With a month to go in the 2010 campaign and an entire offseason ahead of us, it's still early to predict starters with much certainty, but Matusz will presumably start for Baltimore in 2011. He entered the 2010 season as the fifth-best prospect in the game, according to Baseball America, but has struggled at times. Like AL East lefties Jon Lester, David Price and Ricky Romero, Matusz has taken time to adjust from the minors to baseball's toughest division, but if last month is any indication, he has made some adjustments. Though Matusz's season ERA sits at 4.72, he pitched to a 2.43 mark in August with a 26/7 K/BB ratio.
Jake Arrieta has a 5.10 ERA in 15 major league starts this season with more walks than strikeouts. Those numbers aren’t anything special, but the righty placed fourth on Baseball America’s preseason list of top Orioles prospects because of his “pure stuff” and potential to eat innings. The 24-year-old posted a 1.85 ERA in Triple A before the O’s called him up, so he figures to improve in 2011 as long as he can sort out his command issues.
Brad Bergesen, also in the team's current rotation, has an ERA of 5.55 with 4.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. He doesn't turn 25 until later this month, so he's still young, even if he doesn't have the upside of some Orioles prospects.
Tillman and Britton are among Baltimore's most promising young arms. Tillman, 22, has a 3.34 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in Triple A this season, though he has scuffled at the major league level so far. Britton, a 22-year-old left-hander, has a 2.69 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in the upper minors. Both will have the chance to break into Baltimore's rotation next spring.
The Orioles acquired Vanden Hurk for Will Ohman earlier in the summer and they consider the 25-year-old right-hander a potential starter. He has a 4.25 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 118.2 Triple A innings this year. Vanden Hurk, Tillman, Britton and current long reliever Troy Patton are not in the rotation now, but they give the Orioles a number of options. Still, if Millwood signs elsewhere, the O's may consider other veteran starters to complement their many young rotation candidates.
"If you have the opportunity to add another veteran innings guy, you might look at that as well," MacPhail said.
Given the group's relative inexperience and the Orioles' division, it would be unfair to expect a San Diego or Oakland-esque breakout from this group right away. Pitchers like Tillman, Britton, Arrieta and Matusz will all be learning on the go, so they'll likely struggle at times. But those arms are promising, so the O's could have a young and effective rotation within a couple seasons.
As a Yankee fan, I can say that Baltimore will be competitive and postseason contenders by 2014.
Matusz looks like a keeper. He still needs to learn how to pitch rather than just throw,but has shown flashes of ability. The O’s would be smart to nuture and support this guy.
I don’t think he is a thrower. He is a low 90s lefty with a good changeup. He isn’t a power lefty so while I do believe he is very good calling him a thrower is a little off for me imo.
Yeah and I’m pretty sure even he knows he is not a thrower. He is a pitcher that has good control and number of pitches and he is finally starting to show his ability. It’ll take some time especially in AL East but he’s got the pitcher to become one of most dominating lefties in the game. God now that I think about it, AL East will become even more scary by 2012 where all the teams are competitive. heck even right now, Baltimore is pretty good under their new coach. Jays are an above .500 team right now and they have good upcoming guys and could look to contend by 2013, not to mention they have a brilliant pitching staff. Yankees are Yankees. RedSox are RedSox and Tampa is a great team with a very talented and deep farm.
This why I like the 2 divisions (AL and NL) with all teams within their division playing each other in the same number of times with top 4 in each in the playoffs. If you have a super stacked division you could have a deserving team who won’t make the playoffs because of a hard division plus wouldn’t it make the playoff chase more interesting? Unless you have a vastly superior team the playoff chase should be closer. (and no this isn’t because of the Red Sox this season I liked this idea before this season).
I would rather just see them expand to 10 or 12 teams rather than 8 teams.
The problem with that is that if every team has the capability to get 90+ wins, then a lot of deserving teams will be left out. If that ever really happens, which it definitely could, then the AL East would have to be split up, to at least give other divisions a chance at the Wild Card. Besides, the Rays are losing Crawford, and Pena after 2010. It will be harder for them to contend, without one of their two power threats. In Crawford, they lose a stolen base threat, and a high average and decent power. They have B.J Upton, but he has not performed to the level he should have.
He’s very comparable to Tom Glavine in both stuff and command. I’ll take that in my rotation for the next several years.
One of his primary pitches is his change up and he is a very good command pitcher. That’s not a thrower to me. In the last few starts you saw him deal changeups in the 70s for strikes to set up hitters. Pitching backwards is nit what you see in Throwers.
When you talk about Matusz, do the words crafty lefty mean anything? Marusz is a clone of Glavine and Cliff Lee. They didn’t do so bad, did they. Matusz can and will be a top of the rotation starter. He’s a bulldog and knows how to pitch.
Do the words wishful thinking and hyperbole me anything? As I said in the post, Matusz has ability and he’s a keeper, he has shown flashes that say he’s going to be really good but he’s still learning his craft. I’ve seen him pitch well and at times get flustered when there’s an error made behind him or lose focus when an ump misses a call. And like many pitchers, lose the strike zone and then come in and get whacked, that’s what I meant about him still being a thrower. I don’t live by stats, but in this case his numbers seem to back up what I see. And as for being a clone of Glavine or Lee, that’s really really a stretch. Lee, aside from his current woes, is one of the top pitchers today, and Glavine is 293 wins and a career removed from Matusz at this stage. Be fair to the kid and wait ten years before you use the words Clone, Lee, Glavine and Matusz in the same sentence.
I look forward to a .500 season… it’s been to damn long since that sucker in the right field stands at yankee stadium snagged the routine fly away from tony tarasco!
Matusz is the real deal.
So is Britton, Tillman, and Arrieta. So if only they can get those 4 situated and learn how to really pitch, they could be something decent soon.
I’d like those guys to be so, but I don’t think you can say that until they pile up MLB innings. Britton hasn’t gotten a shot yet. Arrieta needs to manage his pitch count, hold runners better, be more consistent with command, and pitch out of jams. Tillman might have the highest raw stuff in his live fastball-curve combo, but he has significant hurdles to pass to adjust to the majors. His stuff is so good that he’s been able to go far just by getting minor-league batters to swing at his stuff, but he needs to pitch with command in the majors. A ton of great prospects end up as major-league fodder because they never make that adjustment.
Thats why I used the word, situated.
Ok. I just can’t say they are the “real deal” yet. They all hold promise, but they could all also turn into ineffective pitchers within a few years, for one reason or another.
With Matusz, in spite of not being a finished product himself, I’ve already seen enough from him to see he is a real majorleague pitcher.
Never said they were the real deal. Just expecting a lot
I can agree with that. I’ve just seen A LOT of very good pitching prospects amount to not even a fringy career, on the minor league and major league level. So it informs my thinking here.
MacPhail is the master of illusion. The offer to Tex was phony, knowing he wouldn’t take it but at least Andy can say he “tried.” You will see this off-season that there will be no free agent signings to talk about AGAIN. Until the fans of Baltimore stop going to the games and stop buying the merch, Pete and Andy will just keep pocketing the MASN money and laughing at the fans as they empty their wallets for an organization who could care less!
you know, for a second there I thought I was reading a comment on a conservative blog. you know, “Obama is the master of illusion. the health care bill was phony, but at least he can say he ‘tried'”, etc….
Just stop with the propoganda. Angelos has not been a detriment to the O’s for the last 5-6 years. Yes, he ruined the team in the 90’s, but we’ve got to move past that. It’s not that the O’s won’t spend money, they offered big money contracts to Konerko, Vlad, and Teixeira (when they were in their prime). The fact is no one stud player is going to come to Baltimore unless there is significant improvements to the 25 man roster. They need to develop overall depth to get anyone big to come here. Why would they? Even if they get their money, they’re going to lose (classic example is Tejeda. Managment thought he could put them over the top, but they couldn’t put a lineup around him). So if money is equal, the free agents are going to go elsewhere.
They’ll clearly be signing a 1B/DH. I do not expect them to go out an offer Adam Dunn what he deserves, but I sure would love to see it.
orioles have some good young talent if there starting pitching steps into its potential next year.they could be the rays champ team
I’ve watched baseball for over 30 years. This team has the earmarks of a good rising young team. It happens. There’s plenty of cynics here, but IM guessing most of them aren’t old enough to have seen any balance of power different from what exists today, and surely not when the Orioles were a dynasty. There was once a string of 18 consecutive winning seasons by the Os. To get an idea what that means. After this season there will be only 3 franchises in history to ever do that. The Yankees will join that.
Please, no one should expect the O’s to sign Lee. Don’t waste your breath. We need to sign/develop a few #2 or #3 starters before an ace will be willing to sign here. We need to focus on developing Matusz, Britton, and Tillman. Bergeson can be trade bait. Arrieta can be a bullpen arm or trade bait. Same with Patton. I don’t think Guthrie should be traded because we need someone with a track record to be the supposed “ace.” He’s relatively cheap and pitched well enough to be the veteran anchor. No more Millwood types! The only way I would trade any of the pitchers would be for a bat that we have control of for more than 2 years (ie. we should waste our breath on Fielder either). I feel we need 1 more year to develop our players before jumping out big in the free agent market (after next year the first base pool will be stacked).
If the Os could add 1 legitimate MLB slugger bat, and, bonafide veteran SP, the Os would have the right mix of talent to allow their young core to make serious noise.
Bergesen looks like a different pitcher now. Who knows if it’s sustainable, but it’s a hell of an improvement.
Full Season: ERA of 5.55 with 4.2 K/9 and 1.5 K/BB
April: 12.19 ERA; 4.4 K/9; 0.8 K/BB – 3 starts, 10 innings
May: 4.26 ERA; 1.9 K/9; 0.8 K/BB – 6 starts, 38 innings
June: 11.17 ERA; 0.9 K/9; 0.25 K/BB 2 starts, sent to bullpen and then minors.
————–look at the change in strikeouts from here:
July: 6.32 ERA; 6.3 K/9, 2.6 K/BB 6 starts 37 IP
August: 2.72 ERA; 5.2 K/9, 3.0 K/BB 5 starts 36 IP
His velocity is up, his fastball is moving better…remember he was injured in the offseason and never really caught up. Also, remember this is a GB pitcher with a terrible infield defense behind him for most of the year – Izturis and three DHs. It’s no mistake that the Orioles ERA turnaround began around the same time as the return of Roberts and the trade of Tejada.
Home runs are a problem for Bergesen – that’s how you g0 0-5 with a 6+ ERA in July despite excellent K/BB numbers. Having said that, I’m very excited to see what next year will bring for Bergesen, as well as the rest.
I like a rotation of
Guthrie
Matusz
Arrieta
Bergesen
Tillman/Britton
I really think Tillman belongs in the 5th spot for now