A third of the teams in baseball won between 80 and 89 games last year. None of them made the playoffs, but all of them were within striking distance of a postseason berth. The ten teams have had wildly different approaches to the 2010-11 offseason – at least so far. I've broken the clubs down into three groups, with their 2010 win totals in parentheses and links that send you to the club's offseason transactions summary:
Aggressive Acquirers
- Red Sox (89) – The Red Sox haven't held back. In an offseason that's seen the Yankees miss out on Cliff Lee and the Rays lose Matt Garza, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Randy Choate, Dan Wheeler and potentially others, Boston moved in aggressively on two of the best players available and some complementary pieces. Acquiring Adrian Gonzalez (pictured) and Carl Crawford wasn't cheap, but those two, along with Bobby Jenks, Wheeler and a collection of other relievers, will help offset the loss of Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez.
- White Sox (88) – GM Kenny Williams wasn't shy this offseason. He re-signed Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski, and added Adam Dunn and Jesse Crain. Make no mistake, the White Sox intend to win in 2011.
- Rockies (83) - The Rockies signed Troy Tulowitzki to a nine-figure extension and are about to finalize a seven-year extension with Carlos Gonzalez. They've also traded for Matt Lindstrom and Jose Lopez and signed Ty Wigginton and Jorge de la Rosa.
- Tigers (81) - Magglio Ordonez, Brandon Inge and Jhonny Peralta are back, Victor Martinez and Joaquin Benoit are in the mix and the Tigers aren't done yet. They may add a fifth starter before Spring Training begins.
- Dodgers (80) – Check out the list of starting pitchers Ned Colletti has added this offseason: Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda, Jon Garland, Vicente Padilla, Dana Eveland and Tim Redding all agreed to deals with the Dodgers this offseason. Throw in Matt Guerrier, a pair of catchers, Juan Uribe and others and you see just how busy the Dodgers have been.
Moderate Spenders
- Cardinals (86) - The Cardinals brought back Jake Westbrook, signed Lance Berkman, Gerald Laird and Brian Tallet and traded for Ryan Theriot. Their biggest challenge will be convincing Albert Pujols to sign an extension.
- Athletics (81) - The A's have traded for David DeJesus and Josh Willingham and signed Rich Harden, Hideki Matsui and Brandon McCarthy.
- Marlins (80) - The Marlins traded Dan Uggla and Cameron Maybin away, but they signed John Buck, Javier Vazquez and Randy Choate. They also extended Ricky Nolasco.
Restrained Spenders
- Blue Jays (85) - Octavio Dotel has been the Blue Jays' biggest offseason addition so far and the club traded one of its top starters, Shaun Marcum, to Milwaukee. The Blue Jays could have a surprise in store, but to this point, their winter has been a quiet one. The team appears to be biding its time for a sustained run in the competitive AL East; they certainly aren't going for broke in 2011.
- Angels (80) – Yes, the Angels have added Scott Downs and Hisanori Takahashi, but no, this is not the offseason most observers expected. Crawford and Beltre signed elsewhere and the Angels have significant needs at third base and in the outfield as a result.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Toronto is likely to be a baffling team again next year. Losing Marcum will hurt, but losing Brian Tallet and Cito will help. Lind and Hill rebounding will offset Bautista’s inevitable decline, plus all the kids are a year older. 85 wins? 90 wins? 65 wins? None would surprise me at all
90 would surprise me some, but it sure would be awesome. It is hard to calculate the WACR (cito-replacement).
65 wins would be a major surprise, and a total disaster. Look for 82-88 wins.
Considering the age of many of they players and that they are on the upward slope of their productivity, their may be some improvement. While I don’t expect as many HRs, I expect the offense to be at least as productive: regression for Bautista and possible Wells, but more from Lind, Hill, Snider and Encarnacion. Losing Marcum and Downs cannot be a good thing, but the organization has a lot of depth in the pitching department. I sense that Farrell will be a better in-game tactician than Cito, but I doubt that translates into many wins. To me, the biggest wildcard for the Jays 2011 will be the catching position: we might endure JPA having a rough transition, or he could be 2011’s Buster Posey.
With the White Sox, Tigers, and Twins all improving for the long haul and with the Royals farm the AL Central is about to become a very fierce division.
Between the White Sox, Tigers, and Twins… well it’s kinda hard to predict a favorite for the division this year.
I don’t mean to present a bias, but allow me to make it easy for you… 🙂
No, but in all honesty, I can’t predict a winner myself, it comes down to the Chisox and Tigers to me.
I don’t think the Twins improved this off-season…
If anything, they downgraded. Even if they get Pavano back.
Morneau will be back for the full season, and Valencia will be a year older. Don’t count the Twins out.
It doesn’t really matter what the Twins get back, in my opinion. They’re the Twins. I’m sure that they could trade away there entire team and somehow would still be competing in the end.
Took the words right out of my mouth, at what point do we call Gardenhire a genius? I don’t really want to, but 6 1st place finishes in 9 seasons (and could have very easily been 7 if you look at 2008 losing by 1 game) means we kind of have to, don’t we?
Yeah, but when are they going to be the bride instead of always the bride’s maid? Genius needs to transcend and get to the WS, not just the ALDS.
Ron Gardenhire hasn’t even won a postseason game since 2004. The man is most definitely not a genius.
Nobody said they’d be out. I still think they’re on par with the Tigers and White Sox.
They were clearly the best team in the division last year, but it doesn’t look like the case right now for 2011.
Poor Indians…
If we get a full season out of both Morneau and Nathan, that’s a pretty big internal “upgrade.” Of course, they’re both pretty big question marks, especially Nathan. I don’t think the Twins have improved, but they’re not so much worse, and Dunn and V-Mart hardly transform the Tigers and White Sox into juggernauts.
I’m looking for the White Sox to get off to a hot start them catch fire in the summer again. If that happens we should take the Central
Dana Eveland got a contract? I hope for the the Dodgers sake, he doesn’t actually make the team, wow is he terrible.
It was a minor league deal….don’t go crazy.
He did his job on the Jays – kill time while Brett Cecil’s finger recovered from chicken-slicing mishap.
why isnt anybody talking about the most underrated pitcher on bj’s staff??? MORROW, hello???
He did his job on the Jays – kill time while Brett Cecil’s finger recovered from chicken-slicing mishap.
The Dodgers added a lot of mediocrity imo…Sure Lilly and Kuroda will probably be solid, but both were re-signs. Garland could be a solid add, especially in that park, but the rest is a big MEH.
A 1-5 that features Kershaw, Billingsley, Kuroda, Lilly, and Garland is VERY solid though. If only they had a real first baseman, third baseman, and left fielder…
they have a real left fielder, his name is Andre Ethier. The only problem is they need a real right fielder and until then have to keep Andre there…
If you’re looking at Eveland and Redding as part of that “meh” comment, you shouldn’t. Both are minor league deals and likely won’t even be on the team. Guerrier is a solid add tho the 3 yr contract is questionable his usefulness isn’t. Uribe will be better than who they had at 2nd last year. They still have needs as noted above (especially that elusive other outfielder) but I wouldn’t say their offseason was full of mediocrity at all.
I’d hesitate to call the Rockies “Aggressive Acquirers”. Signing CarGo and Tulo to extensions isn’t acquiring anything at all. (Unless you count potential financial downside a few years from now.) The closest to an aggressive acquisition they’ve had is De La Rosa, who would be at best an Aggressive Reacquisition. Even if you count DLR as an acquisition (he was a FA, so, okay, fine, that’s one way to look at it), the rest of the pieces they’ve acquired aren’t starters on a contender.
Good piece otherwise and interesting way to look at it. I just think you’re off on your COL characterization.
Considering the other categories were termed “moderate spenders” and “restrained spenders”, he made the right choice with COL.
Locking Up Tulo and CarGo, both entering their prime, at reasonable rates strikes me as much smarter than hanging $100M+ on the like of Werth or Beltre. Tulo and CarGo will be about the same age as Werth and Beltre are now when their deals complete. They are both considered monster talents and their contracts make them both affordable long term and tradeable if necessary. The only mystery to me is why they didn’t lock up Olivo for a couple of more years.
You’re not taking into account the fact that both players were already signed cheaply for many more years. Extending them now at market price means you’re not even getting a discount for taking the risk of signing a player early.
For an example of how to do something like this, see the Pedroia or Cano or Upton contracts, where the team got a significant discount for taking on that risk. For another example of how not to do it, see the Ryan Howard or Chris Carpenter extensions. For an example of how REALLY to do it, see the criminally team-friendly Longoria deal.
But if you do a little digging you can find plenty of more completely argued blogs about how foolish those extensions were. My point was that calling extensions “acquisitions” is really stretching the meaning of it.
I dunno, seems like the As acquired more and better players, and they’re in moderate.
I could certainly quibble here and there, but COL seems totally misplaced, to me.
Tigers need a fifth starter, the team would be much better with Coke as an set up man.
Don’t agree with the Rockies in that category. They’ve acquired almost no incremental talent, instead re-signing or extending players from their 2010 roster. I think they spent a lot but did little to improve their team.
How about calling it the “80-90 Win Club” and include the Padres. I realize the Rangers got into the postseason with 90 wins but San Diego only got eliminated on the last day with 90 wins. The Padres are Restrained Spenders but yet very active in turning over their roster. Unfortunately their small market revenue prevented losing Andrian Gonzalez.
How about calling it the “80-90 Win Club” and include the Padres. I realize the Rangers got into the postseason with 90 wins but San Diego only got eliminated on the last day with 90. The Padres are Restrained Spenders but yet very active in turning over their roster. Unfortunately their small market revenue prevented losing Andrian Gonzalez.
Despite either aggressive or restrained spending, I see all of these teams performing about the same next year. Boston may have the biggest chance to move up – more from the weakening of their biggest competitors. They added but also lost key players. The biggest change will be how their existing pitchers get back on track on slide backwards. White Sox and Tigers added a bit, but not enough to make an impact.
None of the others added an impact bat or pitcher, with the A”s probably making the wisest choices. Despite the hopes of the Dodgers, Rockies, Cardinals, Marlins and Blue Jays, simply adding multiple mediocre players will not move you up to be a contender. Their hope may only lie in the likely fall of the Padres, Rays, Rangers and a few others who did well last year.
The Jays are in no way attempting to be a serious contender this year. If they contend though, I won’t complain.
The Jays are in no way attempting to be a serious contender this year. If they contend though, I won’t complain.
Not sure losing Beltre was exactly losing a “key” player since there was no place for him.. Would you rather have Youkillis or Beltre? Youkillis is signed for 3 more seasons (incl 13′ option) at 37m total and moved to 3B. They picked up Agone to play 1B and let Beltre walk when he turned down 4/52m from them. Sounds pretty smart to me and Boston knows Youkillis will put up good numbers every year.
Note, Mr Hendry, that your club is NOT on this list
Not a mention for the Braves? Acquired Dan Uggla for peanuts, extended him to a relatively fair deal, and traded for Scott Linebrick and signed George Sherill and Joe Mather. Not a whole ton, but the Uggla deal is the big one.
The Braves finished with 91 wins. This article is for those with 80-89 wins only. Sorry.
No need to apologize, for whatever it is you’re apologizing for.
That’s what I get for reading too many comments and forgetting the headline. And I was convinced the Sox won over 90 games in 2010…
No, sadly, they only won 89.
Edited: Double-post.
To go back in the convo a little bit… I love the addition of pictures at the rate they’ve been being posted. Just a nice touch, IMO.
whoa thats a lot of color on the MLBTR front page
As a charter member of “The Fellowship Of The Miserable” the Red $ox have loaded up. Reasonable health and a bit of upside performance from a select group of starters and “The Nation” should enjoy a very enjoyable October. The major issues were addressed.
Every time you say Red Sox you use a $. Why? It makes you look like a 5 year old.
I happen to be a 66 year old who has constantly used exactly this notation in the past to describe the NY team “yankee$” using small caps and a dollar sign. I have posted on numerous sites about NY’s ability to buy players and be patent zero in the driving up of the salary scale. So if Boston does similar I am suppose to ignore it? Boston is now just a notch below NY in that department and certainly deserves a $ in their name and that is a $ we all pay for. I just love the love them or leave them attitude of some Red $ox fans. Maybe those are the real 5 year old folks?
The Yankees started the trend and in order to keep up other teams in the division either have to spend or they will not be making the playoffs. The Rays are an exception but thats after a bunch of years of last place finishes.
NY and Boston spend more on payroll than most teams collect in revenue. Tough to compete under those circumstances.
Which is pretty much the point I was making except I dont see how you can blame Boston too when they barely ever came near what the Yankees payroll was before. They got closer this year but if the Yankees had not had a lineup of all stars do you think the Sox still go so hard after Gonzalez and Crawford?? No need to pay big bucks for overkill.
Which is pretty much the point I was making except I dont see how you can blame Boston too when they barely ever came near what the Yankees payroll was before. They got closer this year but if the Yankees had not had a lineup of all stars do you think the Sox still go so hard after Gonzalez and Crawford?? No need to pay big bucks for overkill.
Every time you say Red Sox you use a $. Why? It makes you look like a 5 year old.
Boston has consistently been near the top in payroll for years. Information is readily accessible. The RS pay because they can. If they did not have such a supportive fan base they’d been dead years ago competing with the yankee$.