Baseball America's annual farm system rankings are out, with a few changes from their 2011 Handbook due to the Matt Garza trade. The Rays' haul pushed them to #2 over the Braves, while the Cubs' losses knocked them from #8 to #16.
For more farm system rankings, check out ESPN's Keith Law and Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein. Keep in mind that graduating prospects to the bigs is a bad thing for a team in these rankings, which as Law notes represent a snapshot. Also, Goldstein provides haikus.
If you look at rankings from all three side-by-side, you'll see that there is a consensus that the Royals, Rays, and Braves should be ranked #1, 2, and 3. The Blue Jays, Yankees, and Reds have consensus top ten systems, with Toronto placing no worse than fifth. There is also agreement that the Astros, Marlins, and Brewers belong in the bottom five. Outliers: BA dislikes the A's and Angels more than the others, Law isn't as high on the Indians but likes the Cardinals and D'Backs, and BA likes the Dodgers more than the others.
Well, at least the Mets are moving up. Still light years from any of the NL East guys…
Meh. Baby steps. A few years of Sandy Alderson and we should keep climbing.
Would definitely move up more if they trade Reyes
a good draft in June plus the benefits of dumping Beltran and Reyes at the July deadline will definitely get them moving up.
Unless somehow the Mets are in contention at the trade deadline, I think trading Beltran and Reyes is a very smart move.
Perversely despite being a lifelong Met fan, I hope they are not in contention at the July deadline for the long term sake of the franchise. I do think they are an 80-85 win team and I’m just hoping they don’t get too “lucky” and are on pace for an 85-90 win season.
An 85-90 win season Could be good enough to win a wild card though. You shouldn’t hope your team does bad. Worse comes to worst, if they are not traded, and if they have good years, offer them arbitration and they could possibly be Type A FA’s.
i highly doubt anybody is making the wildcard with 85 wins
I don’t expect it too, but that’s why I said it Could, plus I said 85-90 so that does include 86, 87, 88, 89 and 90 lol
Red Sox aren’t top 10? I’m shocked
hopefully this is sarcasm… but in the case that it isnt… what do you expect when you trade 4 of your top 6 prospects? A-Gon is definetly worth it when he resigns… theres enough gas in the tank to be competitive until the system gets re-stocked…
It was 🙂 but to be serious what is Keith Law smoking? We all know he is a Red Sox guy so him putting them at 11 is no surprise but to put the Twins in the top 10 and to put both them and the Phillies ahead of the Yankees is a joke
Actually he’s a Blue Jays guy. But it’s still an East Coast team, so maybe that’s why ESPN hired him :p
Did Keith Law include Ryan Kalish in his list of prospects? Kevin Goldstein didn’t, which might account for the discrepancy. Kalish would defintely be the best three star prospect, if not somewhere among the four stars.
I assume not since he isn’t rookie eligible. As a Red Sox fan, I’m perfectly content with our farm system. We have the prospects in the positions that we will have needs in the next 1-2 years.
Plus a bunch of really young guys in Rookie ball and low A who have the “stuff” to move up a lot in the rankings if they have a good year, and a lot of early picks in what is supposed to be a very deep draft.
Completely agree. I’m very interested in seeing how Cecchini and Coyle do. Especially interested in seeing how Cecchini comes back from the ACL injury. Obviously those two are still ~4-5 years away given that they were drafted out of high school, but they should be fun to watch.
Definitely. Personally I’m also interesting in seeing what Younginer and LeBlanc can do, specifically Younginer. If he can learn to repeat his delivery so he has better command I really think he could shoot all the way up to one of their top 3 prospects. He can already reach 97 at 20 years old with a 90mph 2-seamer, a 73mph 12-6 curve, and a low 80’s change. If he can learn to consistently locate them he has four plus pitches, dude could be legit.
Personally, I’m more interested in Hazelbaker than LaBlanc, but I think that’s just a difference of what you want from CF (Also, Hazelbaker is closer to being ML ready). Although I will say he needs to be more efficient with his steals (21.25% CS rate in 2010, 17 CS in 80 attempts).
Anyway, I think we agree that the future of the farm looks bright, and should only get brighter after the upcoming draft.
Yeah Hazelbaker looks good too I just like the fact that, while none of his skills are over the top good, LeBlanc is really well rounded with all of his tools being above average.
Agreed. Hazelbaker kind of reminds me of Ellsbury though, with slightly worse base running skills and slightly more power. I could see him taking over for Ells, if all goes well with his development. Unless of course Westmoreland picks up (mid way through the year) where he left off, then it’s anyones game.
Putting the Twins at 9 or 10 isn’t the greatest tragedy, but I would say they are 10-15 (probably 13-14), and behind the Yankees. It also depends if they classify Tsuyoshi Nishioka as a prospect, because people disagree on this.
Keith Law has made it publicly known that he is a Yankee fan.
if that is true, im sure you can back that up with a link.
He grew up on LI and worked for the Blue Jays, so he’s probably either a Blue Jay, Yankee or Met fan.
Who exactly is this 4th top 6 prospect? Kelly, Rizzo, Fuentes, and Eric Patterson. One of these things is not like the others…….
Casey Kelly counts as two prospects. Did you know he also played shortstop and was a good hitter in high school???
Im not a Sox follower… so i’m sorry… should have said 3 of the top 4… and not 4 of the top 6… either way… when you trade away high-end minor league talent, your system ranking takes a hit… either way it doesnt matter to the Sox, they have the pieces they need now, and the pieces in the minors to plug the holes that will be created soon enough with people leaving…
Agreed that the Sox are still fine, but how does not counting Patterson as a top prospect (which he isn’t), affect where Fuentes was ranked?
Toronto Blue Jays #4 . that is all.
15 Spot move since 2009.
It’s not fairly hard to take a huge drop up or get a huge boost in 1+ offseasons. Before the Matt Holiday trade, the Cardinals had the 8th best ranking at the start of the season (I forgot what site though unfortunately). The next offseason, they went down to 25th (possibly even lower)
Oh there’s no doubt about that, however before JPR left I believe the Jays ranked in the bottom 3, so it’s just nice to see that the new GM has made it a priority to restock.
Given the fact that he turned a bottom 5 to a top 5 with out having a complete fire sale, I’d say, not bad at all.
Definitely not bad, now I’m sure the Mets fans are hoping good ol Sandy can do it. I think he should trade Reyes and Beltran at the deadline if they are not in contention.
I agree, but the return will depend on what kind of year they have.
What kind of year the Mets have or what kind of year the teams that want them have? Obviously if an average or mediocre team wants Reyes or Beltran (for whatever reason), I don’t expect them to give a whole lot to the Mets. If there are teams that do want him that are in playoff contention, the Mets are going to ask for a lot, and you can’t blame them there.
sorry I meant the return depends on what kind of year reyes and beltran actually have..
Blaa, alright, could of been any of those 3.
Personally, I would have a fire sale. If they can trade 4-5 starters for 2-3 prospects each, make sure they get prospects that are near ready, they could turn this around quick.
I think trading Reyes is a bad move. If he has a good year, in which case more teams would be willing to give up prospects for him, the Mets should sign him longterm. Reyes and Wright to anchor that offense for the long term is not a bad idea.
Plus, look at the weak SS market. Reyes could be a top 3 ss in the league if he’s healthy, which it looks like he is.
If he has a good year, they are going to get a lot for him. If somehow the Mets are in contention then I see no point whatsoever in trading for him but if they are a sub .500 team and way behind the Phillies and Braves, it would be good for a poor farm team to trade for high prospects. Now I know they wouldn’t trade him to teh Phillies or Braves, but they could trade him to another contending team in need of an OFer or SS.
If Reyes and/or Beltran get injured or play bad, then forget about it lol.
Yep. But what I’m saying, and we disagree, is that regardless of the year they are having, they should sign him longterm and build around Reyes and Wright for the future. Farm is important, but people pay money to see the big league team… and the Mets can’t afford, literally, to lose fans in seats.
Also, we may have forgotten by recent news, but this is still a big market team playing in the biggest market! They should be able to shell out money in free agency to buy compliment pieces and not put all their eggs in the farm basket.
No way Beltran remains a Met though…
I think it would be a huge mistake for the Mets to resign Reyes for long term, unless it’s at a relatively low cost. For one thing, Reyes is a very bad defensive SS, so it would be good, if they do sign him long term, to make him a 2B since of course there is no DH. I don’t know the Mets prospects much so I have no idea if they have another who is ready SS ready anytime soon.
The question is do you think with all of the money problems the mets will be able to give him a long term deal. lets face it with a good healthy year he might be looking at type of deal that beltre go maybe more. Can the mets give that kind of money out even if they have money coming off the books>?
Given the fact that he turned a bottom 5 to a top 5 with out having a complete fire sale, I’d say, not bad at all.
What makes it even more scary is he didn’t completely focus on the farm. He also brought in young(er) high-ceiling talent for the Jays, i.e. Morrow, Escobar etc. The farm could easily be top 3 if he focused on it 100%.
I’m not an ‘Insider’, so I couldn’t see those rankings, but i was surprised to see the Phillies as high as they were in the 2 I could see. I guess they are really overvaluing the A-Ball players, because the Phillies are pretty thin in AA and AAA levels.
I wouldn’t say overvaluing. The Phillies have so many highly-regarded guys down there, the chances of SOME of them hitting the bigs is pretty high.
I’m not saying they have sure things, far from it, but when scouts are calling them the most talented A-ball team ever assembled there’s got to be SOME credit given to the farm system.
They have 4-5 top 100 guys, including a top 5 prospect. What’s so surprising?
Then maybe you should have clicked on the spreadsheet link…..
I didn’t see it .. I’ll have to go back .. thanks for the heads up 😉
No problem, that’s what I’m here for.
b.a. is b.s.
BA has always hated the A’s farm system so this is no surprised. They should be ranked more middle of the pack but BA is still fuming over how the A’s don’t scout like other teams in the traditional way. The A’s have out spent most clubs on international players in the last few years and have some upcoming players in A ball and AA ball.
Good to see that Jim Hendry did so well for the Cubs. What a failure.
Well, I guess it’s nice to see us with a #2/3 starter, though!!! That’s worth half of the top of the farm, right?
yeah, that wasn’t a very good trade. here’s hoping for the cubs’ sake that garza takes his game to new levels in chicago
with the exception of Archer, the Cubs dealt mostly guys who were blocked (Chirinos, Lee and Guyer). In Return they got a good, young, proven starter… a commodity that’s worth it’s weight in gold in modern baseball.
the NL Central is a division without a clear cut favorite, and Garza’s guaranteed to be a Cub for what, 3 more years at least? So Hendry’s trading players that COULD be good down the road for one that is good now and a chance to win the division… Would any Cubs fan rather go back to the MacPhail days of an over-hyped farm system and settling for 3rd every year?
So the Cubs farm system dropped from ‘above average’ to merely ‘average’. Big tragedy.
opportunity cost
Guyer is blocked, yes.
Chirinos is sort of blocked, but he has played C, 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B at the MiLB level, so he is extremely versatile. He could move to 1B and fill the lacking hole there in the farm, or maybe 3B if Vitters never gets it together. So he’s blocked at his primary position, but not entirely.
Now, Lee is a whole different story. The guy could ACTUALLY give the Cubs a leadoff option with speed and base stealing abilities. His defense is stellar from what has been reported, and it was widely-known that the Cubs were likely yo move Castro to 2B to accomodate Lee’s glove. It would have given them a GREAT 1-2 combo in the lineup and an awesome defensive MI, something you never got with Fontenot and Theriot.
Now, Garza’s guaranteed to be a Cubs for 3 years. Those are 3 years of salaries that will likely balloon greatly in that span. Those 3 guys you mentioned, plus Archer–a guy who probably has a ceiling at or above Garza’s level–all get SIX years with their team. So 3 years of Garza is 24 years of those 4 prospects combined. The trade took away young, cost-controlled prospects (2 at prime postions, C and SS), and added 3 years of a 27-year old SP who has seen his overall body of work take a turn for the worse of late (3.2 2009 WAR to 1.8 2010 WAR).
The farm didn’t go like you say, either. It lost a leadoff hitter with GG-caliber defense, a mashing C that is improving defensively, a capable OF, and a #2 starter. That farm is now a few decent arms, the prayer that is Josh Vitters, Brett Jackson, and the rest.
Seriously, there’s not much in the farm that excites me now, and Garza doesn’t excite me, either. If it was ONE of Archer/Lee, one of Guyer/Chirinos, another low-end prospect, and Fuld, OK. But the team gave up 4 of its top-10 prospects.
They gave up more than MIL gave up for Greinke.
yeah, but greinke’s peak WAR is only 9.4. garza has accumulated 9.9
…in his entire 725 inning career
Good point, poor execution of joke.
thx paula <3
You have to remember that the Cubs have Garza for 3 seasons at arbitration prices. There’s a lot of surplus value there.
about 3 of the cardinals top 5 prospects came from the 2010 draft or international market. That says 2 things: 1, they had an awesome draft and 2, wtf were they doing all those other years!? Anyways, i think they will be in the 10-15 range next year, maybe closer to the 10.
It could also say that their farm was positively brutal before the 2010 draft. Things are looking brighter for your Cards though.
rays are #2 overall, will contend in 2011, and have the entire 1st round of this year’s loaded draft class to themselves
small markets can’t compete! =(
Hit that one right on the head—after this years draft class the rays farm could be the richest group of talent baseball has ever seen. Add in the fact they will compete as that organization should e a model on how to spend low and win.
The question I have is whether or not Tampa will spring for the big signing bonuses needed to get that entire first round of elite talent or will they draft modestly. Should be really fun to see how it unfolds.
yetttt the fanbase still won’t show up to cheer on the best run team in all of baseball.
That is such a shame. It really is.
You ain’t kidding, and in Chicago you had the (no offense to Cubs fans), miserable Cubs finish amongst the top attendances in the NL.
But it’s a 45 minute commute so they say!
Hey newsflash Rays fans, it takes a good half hour to a over an hour to get to Yankee Stadium by car, that is if you don’t live in the Bronx. And even with many subway delays, it still takes a good half hour by subway.
On the plus side, at least their tv ratings went way higher (and the Red Sox went way lower, although I don’t see that happening in 2011 of course unless half the team is on the DL again)
Rays (ranked #2) 3 1st round picks, 10 of top 60 plus 2 2nd round picks
Jays (ranked #4) 5 of top 57 picks plus 2 2nd round picks
Yankees (ranked #5)
Red Sox (ranked #17) 4 of top 40 picks
Orioles (ranked #21) #4 overall pick
With 3 of the top 5 rated systems already, the AL East as a whole will strengthen itself further. Rays draft haul will be huge, but Jays and Sox should also have the top few influxes of talent. Yanks don’t pick till 51, but they’ll spend by going overslot and buying elite Latin American talent. The Orioles look to be the one team left behind, but they should at least get one super talent with their #4 overall.
Seems like this division should dominate these rankings for a few more years.
I’d really like to see a separate list of farm teams ranked by Major League-ready prospects — guys in AA or AAA who are projected to be on rosters within, say, 18 months. That would remove the whole ‘teens full of potential’ debate.
Though it does bring up a problem of its own. There’s a difference between being roster-ready and being on a roster. The former would probably be a fairer way to look at things, because players in systems of top teams are less likely to break through than players in bad teams’ systems.
Looking at my Phillies as an example, Matt Rizzotti will almost certainly be roster-ready in less than 18 months, if he isn’t already. However, that does him no good, since he’s a 1B, can’t play defense well enough to go anywhere else, and has a Ryan Howard-shaped brick wall in front of him. He could make the team as a pinch hitter, but we need our bench guys to play multiple positions (or catcher), and he has trouble playing the field at the easiest one. If he came up through the Pirates’ system, he’d be their 1B soon, if not already, because Lyle Overbay isn’t likely to hit well enough to keep him off the field.
The Pirates’ composite ranking of 19 seems about right to me, as they’ve graduated 4 starting position players in the last 1.5 years. while there is pitching help on the horizon in Owens and Morris, most of the Pirates’ high-ceiling talent (Taillon, Allie, Heredia) haven’t even made their minor-league debuts yet.
Barring injury to one of them (and/or flubbing the #1 overall draft pick this year), I’d expect the Pirates to rank higher next year.
I guess the same reason that applies as the Marlins being one of the worst, and on some sites, the worst.
Congrats to evilempireny for cracking top 10. Maybe now there will be some common sense in ny with throwing money around. Now with George not throwng money around maybe some of Casnman draft picks will become finds for years.
Have you not heard of the names Randy Levine and Hank Steinbrenner?
Yea and they haven’t thrown money around like before
They were the ones that gave the increase to A-Rod after he opted out of the original contract. They were the ones that over ruled Cashman in the Jeter negotiations, which resulted in a ridiculous contract. They were the ones that basically negotiated the recent Soriano contract with the THREE opt out provisions. The don’t have the track record like George because his life span, but these two have already spent plenty in a very short time. Don’t expect it to abate anytime soon.
Hey look at that; a lot of winny red sox fan comments. Deal with it, your farm is weak and will be for the next year or two. At least there is a reason; your team traded away the good prospects for Gonzalez. Good grief, just can’t win with you guys..I just had a conversation with a giants fan (whom is staying in NYC this week) and he can’t figure you all out either. The obession with numbers is actually getting a bit scary. The Yankees’s have had some excellent international scouting and there are some high ceiling players about to come up. No matter how you face it, the Yanks always beat you in one way or another.
You can’t prove it will be weak for the next year or two. Prospects and farm rankings jump up and down all the time.
they don’t run the team. Cashman and Hal do.