Archives for March 2011

Cesar Carrillo Clears Waivers

By Tim Dierkes | March 22, 2011 at 1:28pm CDT

Cesar Carrillo's journey will continue in Oklahoma City, as he's been outrighted and cleared waivers according to a tweet from MLB.com's Brian McTaggart. Carrillo was claimed off waivers by the Astros from the Padres to conclude a tumultuous September for the right-hander. A January trespassing arrest probably did not help Carrillo's stock.

Carrillo, 27 next month, was drafted by the Padres with the 18th overall pick in 2005 but needed Tommy John surgery soon after. In various stints in the high minors in recent years, Carrillo's strikeout rate has been poor and he's been very hittable. He last cracked a Baseball America Prospect Handbook before the '09 season, when the publication said "his stuff is still recovering" from the June '07 surgery.

Best Arbitration Eligible Pitchers Without Extensions

By Tim Dierkes | March 22, 2011 at 1:15pm CDT

Earlier today we looked at the best arbitration eligible position players without extensions, including Geovany Soto, Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo, and Hunter Pence. Now let's tackle the best arbitration eligible starting pitchers currently on one-year deals. I've included agency info from our database.

Jensen Lewis Clears Waivers

By Tim Dierkes | March 22, 2011 at 12:14pm CDT

TUESDAY, 12:14pm: Lewis cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Columbus, reports Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

MONDAY, 9:13am: The Indians placed reliever Jensen Lewis on waivers, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Non-roster invitee Jack Hannahan is expected to make the team, so the Indians will need to open up at least one 40-man roster spot.

Lewis, 27 in May, posted a 2.97 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 0.2 HR/9, and 30.4% groundball rate in 36 1/3 big league innings last year. He has stronger peripherals in Triple-A, where he posted a 2.67 ERA in 30 1/3 frames. Arbitration eligible as a Super Two player after the 2010 season, Lewis signed for $650K. Typically such contracts are not guaranteed, but Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer wrote yesterday that Lewis' is.

Braves Looking To Trade Rodrigo Lopez

By Tim Dierkes | March 22, 2011 at 12:00pm CDT

The Braves are "looking to make a deal involving Rodrigo Lopez," tweets ESPN's Buster Olney. The news comes as no surprise; MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith highlighted Atlanta's rotation surplus yesterday.

Lopez, 35, posted a 5.00 ERA, 5.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.7 HR/9, and 37.6% groundball rate in 200 innings for the Diamondbacks last year before signing a minor league deal with the Braves. He's been pretty good in 13 2/3 spring innings this year. The Braves would likely seek a modest return.

Latest On Rotation Battles

By Tim Dierkes | March 22, 2011 at 11:11am CDT

Rotation battles are being decided left and right. Here's the latest.

Scott Baker will serve as the Twins' fifth starter and Kevin Slowey will work out of the bullpen, tweets Kelsie Smith of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Slowey was highlighted by MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith as a potentially available starter, and the Twins appear willing to listen. With Kyle Gibson on the horizon, can the Twins spare the depth?
Barry Enright made the Diamondbacks' rotation, reports MLB.com's Steve Gilbert. Assuming Joe Saunders makes the cut, that leaves Armando Galarraga and Aaron Heilman duking it out for the right to fill in for Zach Duke. If Heilman sneaks into the rotation, the D'Backs have to decide by March 28th whether they want to pay Galarraga $2.3MM as their long man. If they cut him by then they'd only owe him about $569K.
Bartolo Colon went six strong innings for the Yankees last night, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports figures this means he'll make the team somehow. Colon and Freddy Garcia have opt-out dates of March 31st and March 29th, respectively. Ivan Nova probably has the fourth starter job, leaving Colon, Garcia, and Sergio Mitre for two spots.
The Cubs are meeting today and could decide on their fifth starter, reports Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. If Andrew Cashner gets the nod, I can see the Cubs trying to dump Carlos Silva.

Average Free Agent Prices By Position

By Tim Dierkes | March 22, 2011 at 10:51am CDT

131 free agents signed Major League deals this offseason, ranging from Scott Olsen at $550K to Carl Crawford at $142MM. The group was guaranteed just over $1.3 billion for 203 contract years, for an average of $6.4MM per year. The average player scored a contract worth $9.93MM. These numbers do not include Ted Lilly, Brandon Inge, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Frank Francisco, Jason Frasor, who were not signed on the open market.

Right field: $10.975MM per year ($153.65MM over 14 years). This group includes seven players, with Jayson Werth pulling up the numbers.
Closer: $10MM per year ($40MM over four years). I've included only Mariano Rivera and J.J. Putz here, as the other relievers were not signed as certain closers.
Left field: $9.775MM per year ($156.4MM over 16 years). This group of ten is greatly skewed by Carl Crawford.
Third base: $9.4MM per year ($103.45MM over 11 years). Adrian Beltre makes up almost all of this.
Designated hitter: $9.16MM per year ($128.25MM over 14 years). Adam Dunn and Victor Martinez were compensated abnormally well for players who will mostly be serving at DH.
Shortstop: $8.19MM per year ($73.75MM over 9 years). Derek Jeter is the headliner.
Starting pitcher: $7.42MM per year ($229.975MM over 31 years). Cliff Lee leads the group of 22 pitchers I designated as starters. Aside from him, starters were paid $4.2MM per year.
First base: $7.38MM per year ($110.65MM over 15 years). Paul Konerko leads.
Second base: $4.84MM per year ($38.75MM over 8 years). Juan Uribe received the biggest deal.
Right-handed reliever: $3.66MM per year ($146.28MM over 40 years). Rafael Soriano tops the chart.
Left-handed reliever: $3.06MM per year ($58.05MM over 19 years). Scott Downs got the biggest deal.
Catcher: $3.04MM per year ($57.675MM over 19 years). John Buck's surprising deal tops the list.
Center field: $1.14MM per year ($3.425MM over 3 years). Center fielders were tough to come by this winter, as Rick Ankiel, Melky Cabrera, and Tony Gwynn Jr. make up this group.
Click here to download a spreadsheet with all the data.

Best Arb Eligible Position Players Without Extensions

By Tim Dierkes | March 22, 2011 at 8:44am CDT

These days, most of the best arbitration eligible players are signed to multiyear deals. So far this offseason 25 players signed extensions covering at least one arbitration year, with more to come in April. It's rare to see a star player make it all the way to free agency going year-to-year. Many don't even make it to arbitration. With that in mind, let's take a look at the best arbitration eligible position players currently on one-year deals. I've included the agencies from our database.

Catchers

Geovany Soto, Cubs – Wasserman Media Group
Mike Napoli, Rangers – Brian Grieper
Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks – Octagon

Soto, signed for $3MM in his first arbitration year, is probably a candidate to begin extension talks in the near future – especially if he starts strong in 2011. Napoli's escalating salary makes him a non-tender candidate after the season. It's understandable that Montero was not locked up, given Arizona's GM changes and the player's injuries.

First Basemen

Prince Fielder, Brewers – Boras Corporation
Kendrys Morales, Angels – Boras Corporation

Fielder didn't technically go year-to-year, as he signed for $18MM over his first two arbitration seasons. He'll end up making $33.5MM over the three arb years, 88% of what Joey Votto will make despite Votto signing for all three years at once. At any rate, Fielder represents a real live star player who will get his six years service time and hit free agency. Morales' situation is no surprise, given the Angels-Boras factor and his injury-shortened 2011 season.

Second Basemen

Kelly Johnson, Diamondbacks – SFX
Martin Prado, Braves – Peter E. Greenberg & Associates

Dan Uggla headed this list for a couple of years, but the Braves bought out his final arbitration year recently. Johnson hasn't had the consistency to justify an extension, as he was non-tendered after '09. Prado, who also could be grouped as a third baseman or left fielder, could be a candidate if the price is right.

Shortstops

Yunel Escobar, Blue Jays – Wasserman Media Group
Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians – Octagon
J.J. Hardy, Orioles – LSW Baseball

We should note that Stephen Drew is on the Fielder/Matt Holliday plan, where his extension did not buy out free agent years. Injuries have gotten in the way for Cabrera and Hardy, while the Braves clearly didn't like Escobar enough to commit to him. At $18.25MM over four arbitration years, Hardy didn't do too badly anyway.

Third Basemen

Kevin Kouzmanoff, Athletics – Wasserman Media Group

Kouzmanoff hasn't done enough to justify an extension, and he could be non-tendered after the season.

Outfielders

Shin-Soo Choo, Indians – Boras Corporation
Josh Willingham – Sosnick/Cobbe
Hunter Pence - Beverly Hills Sports Council
Nelson Cruz – ACES
Andres Torres – ACES
Delmon Young – Wasserman Media Group
Angel Pagan – Wasserman Media Group
Michael Bourn – Boras Corporation
B.J. Upton – Reynolds Sports Management
Adam Jones – CAA Sports
Jacoby Ellsbury – Boras Corporation
Ryan Ludwick – Beverly Hills Sports Council

Note that Josh Hamilton, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier are among those on multiyear deals that did not buy out free agent years.

Choo, Bourn, and Ellsbury may continue going year to year, as Boras typically encourages. Choo is already just under $4MM in his first arbitration year, and could top Pence's $6.9MM for 2012. Cruz, Torres, and Pagan haven't shown the consistency and/or durability as everyday players usually required for a multiyear deal.

Willingham, Pence, Young, Upton, Jones, and Ludwick may fall into an interesting bracket: too good to be non-tendered, but not at the level where you need to lock them up without a significant discount. Willingham made $13.55MM over his three arb years, while Ludwick did even better at $15.925MM. Pence, though, won a huge second-year award of $6.9MM and is already at $10.4MM with two more arbitration years to go. If he remains consistent, the Astros are going to have some tough decisions in the near future.

Schierholtz, Ishikawa On The Bubble For Giants

By Tim Dierkes | March 22, 2011 at 7:24am CDT

The Giants have a pair of out of options position players on the bubble in Nate Schierholtz and Travis Ishikawa. According to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News, "Schierholtz could be the easiest and most likely to be dealt. Perhaps soon."

Schierholtz, a right fielder, is trying to break into an outfield that already features more expensive players such as Cody Ross, Andres Torres, Pat Burrell, Mark DeRosa, and perhaps Aaron Rowand. And don't forget top prospect Brandon Belt, who could force Aubrey Huff to left field or play there himself. Just for good measure, Ishikawa is playing a little outfield this spring.

The 27-year-old Schierholtz has failed to produce in 758 scattered big league plate appearances. He has, at least, shown the ability to hit for average, power, and a strong contact rate in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Going back to the Baseball America 2008 Handbook, Schierholtz "plays a strong right field and has an above-average, accurate arm." He would have been a more interesting player for the Royals to try in right field than Jeff Francoeur, and could make sense for the Phillies currently.

Trading Rowand would alleviate the Giants' outfield logjam slightly, but Baggarly says there's nothing cooking on that front. Rowand is a release candidate in my mind, unless there's a team willing to pick up a couple million bucks of the $24MM owed to him for 2011-12.

Baggarly notes that both Schierholtz and Ishikawa could be on the outs if Belt makes the team. On Friday, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote that the situations of Rowand, Ishikawa, and Schierholtz will not be big factors in the Belt decision. Belt's service time might be a consideration, not that the team would admit that publicly. If the Giants can survive the season's first nine games without Belt, they can delay his free agency by a year.

American League Links: Orioles, Francisco, Indians

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | March 21, 2011 at 10:25pm CDT

Links from the Junior Circuit, as Bartolo Colon comes closer to earning a spot in the Yankees' rotation…

Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun previews the Orioles' Opening Day roster and checks in on some 2010 Orioles who have since joined other organizations.
Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas asks whether the Rangers made a mistake when they traded Frank Francisco for Mike Napoli. Rangers GM Jon Daniels says Francisco was "very good" out of the bullpen when healthy, but notes that Francisco isn't completely healthy at the moment. The right-hander is set to visit Dr. James Andrews.
The Indians are almost ready to announce their starting rotation, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.
Meanwhile, Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer says the Indians didn't draft well enough from 2004-07.

Braves Still Hoping To Deal Kawakami

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | March 21, 2011 at 9:06pm CDT

The Braves are still hoping that Kenshin Kawakami draws interest from another team that's willing to take on a considerable portion of the $6.67MM he’ll earn in 2011, according to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Kawakami lost his rotation spot last June after losing his first nine decisions.

He appeared in just three big league games after June 26th, partly because the Braves sent him to the minor leagues for five starts. The 35-year-old started today, but is not competing with Rodrigo Lopez, Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor for Atlanta's open rotation spot. Instead, the Braves will trade Kawakami or return him to the minor leagues.

Japanese teams were willing to take on more than half of Kawakami's salary as recently as last month and some MLB teams, including the Brewers, could use rotation depth. I examined some options for Milwaukee earlier tonight.

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