Bob Elliot of the Toronto Sun has a host of Blue Jays news including numerous quotes from GM Alex Anthopoulos:
- Elliot hears that the Blue Jays have been "shocked" by the asking prices they've received when contacting the representatives for free agent closers. Anthopoulos sounds wary of signing closers to four- and five-year deals. Noting some research he did on injuries long-term deals for relievers when he was still an assistant GM, Anthopolous said: "…basically if you were giving out a five-year deal you were only going to get a player for four seasons."
- When asked what the club's greatest surplus was, Anthopoulos replied "prospects," which Elliot speculates could hint that the Jays may try to acquire a closer via trade.
- The Blue Jays aren't prepared to trade J.P. Arencibia because of Travis d'Arnaud's minor league success. The 22-year-old d'Arnaud ranked 36th on Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects list prior to a 2011 campaign that saw him hit .311/.371/542 and crush 21 homers at the Double-A level.
- The organization is at least one year away from considering d'Arnaud for the Major Leagues, and the same goes for shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria.
- The Blue Jays are content with Colby Rasmus as their center fielder for 2012, and Anthopolous calls him an upgrade defensively.
- The Jays need an everyday second baseman, which leads Elliot to speculate on Brandon Phillips.
Frickin’ RAJ…
partially his fault for sure but , id blame bush and the infamous a-rod deal for just blowing up all MLB salaries
Typical blaming bush, when he wasn’t even the owner.
your right it was chaney’s fault
Colby Rasmus…. Forgot about that guy. What an utter disappointment.
I’m too tired for this.
I meant for the Cardinals.
oh, okay. Though he was plenty good for the Cards.
I wouldn’t agree with plenty good. I’d say he was under achieving. Which is not good.
You mean in 2011. He was damn good in 2009~2010
Disagree with ’09. And 2010 was a good year, but not Damn good.
7.1 fWAR for age 23~24 seasons. I’d say that’s damn good.
hahahah
Laugh all you want, but I vaguely recall the Cardinals winning the World Series this year in large part thanks to that move (it significantly improved the team in the short-term, which they needed every bit of to make the World Series in the first place). It’ll help the Jays down the road too in all likelihood, but nobody in St. Louis is crying over having lost Rasmus.
to make the playoffs in the first place*
Got ahead of myself.
Yet!
I agree. Without that trade St Loius doesn’t even make the playoffs let alone world series. So no matter what happens with Rasmus’s future its a win for the Cards cause they reached their goal in the trade.
Now hopefully Toronto gets their return and has many years of production from Rasmus and everyone comes out a winner!!
Without the Braves the Cardinals don’t make the playoffs. Maybe the trade helped them, but 9 out of 10 times they still don’t make the playoffs and have traded away a good young player.
Compared to his outlandish projection and ‘potential’ yes a disappointment. But in his three seasons he’s had a really good year, an average year, and a bad year. That’s a solid player. He’ll have a nice career. Probably an all star once or twice. But I don’t miss him in the least bit. I’ll take Jon Jay’s heart and hustle over anything Raz brings any day.
The heart and hustle is where my disappointment stems.
again… hahahaahah
an honest assessment….also in line with expectations from most Jays fans.
Shut up Bob Elliot. Shut up, shut up, shut up.
doing it right
I don’t know why they’re shocked. Scott Boras represents two of the better closers available (Madson and K-Rod).
I’m sure Heath Bell wants a lucrative deal to leave San Diego. I can’t think of reasons anybody else would have a high asking price in terms of years. Dollars, I can see for a lot of guys but I can’t see Joe Nathan asking for a four year deal at this point in his career.
You replied to yourself. #foreveralone
Oh, way to go bruh you got him there {rolling eyes}
Oh, I see what you did there…(eye roll).
Oh, I see what you did there…(eye roll).
I didn’t want to edit it in case somebody replied to me… just adding on to what I was saying.
At least The B.J. Ryan Experience was a good learning experience for the Jays’ front office crew.
I get that the bullpen was a major area of concern last year, but I really hope AA doesn’t sign any big FA deals or trade any significant prospects for any bullpen help
with Janssen, Litsch, Beck, Villanueva, Carreno and possibly a Cecil or Mcgowan joining as well, the bullpen just needs 1 or 2 pieces to round things off, perhaps a Broxton or Harden.
I’d throw a 2 years 6 million for harden and use him in late innings.
↑ He knows what he’s talking about.
I have to disagree with Harden though, well, sorta. I’d be cool with a Broxton signing. Hell, I’d be cool with a Brad Lidge signing. All 3 are made out of glass, so midaswell look to sign the one’s that have more experience in the bullpen, for whatever that experience is worth.
No Brad Lidge, thank you.
why no dice on harden? I think in a limited role, he’d really excel and maybe it would help keep him healthy.
Broxton shouldn’t cost much, harden made 1.5 mil this year, these would all be pretty small investments.
I got nothing against the guy as a player, I got something against his stubbornness. He only wants to start, and then proceeds to have his arm in need of replacing for the upteenth time. If he were an intelligent specimen, he’d change to being a reliever, stay healthy, and make $8MM a year being (most likely) solid instead of signing for $1.5MM every year because some team decides he’s worth the flyer. If he were to agree to stay in the pen, I’m all for it, but it won’t happen. Oh, he hasn’t even been average for the last 2 seasons when healthy.
Lidge would be perfect if he were to sign on a one year deal with a vesting option, regardless of what FrankieRex says :p
Lidge’s 5.2 BB/9 over the last 3 seasons will work real well in the AL East… yup, real well.
… … well played Mauer…
Funny how you use the last three seasons as your endpoint. Juuuust long enough to include that disastrous ’09, eh?
Say what you want about how disappointing Lidge was for the Phillies, but since changing his approach after that horrible ’09, he’s been very effective. Most hard-throwing relievers completely collapse once their fastball starts losing velocity in their early-30’s and never recover, but Lidge realized it and went from throwing 50% fastballs and 50% sliders to throwing 30% fastballs and 70% sliders. It’ll probably destroy his elbow, but it’ll at least keep him effective when he’s on the mound. For the right kind of contract (low base, heavy incentives, short-term) he’ll give you some good value, and might just give you a surprise year of closer-level performance.
well, considering he’s 34 (he’ll be 35 in December) right now, yeah. He’s not going to be posting the numbers he had at age 27.
His “very effective” BB/9s of 4.73 in 2010 and 6.00 in 2011 are really impressive. I’m almost tempted to sign him. Not.
And yet Carlos Marmol comes up in the thread as a good solution….
For the record, I never said Marmol was a good option.
Also, come talk to me when Lidge posts a K/9 of 15.99
edit: also, Marmol is 6 years younger than Lidge.
Fair enough on the first point.
As for the second, he got closer than most in 2004 with his 14.93 K/9. I know he’s now a mere figment of the pitcher he was then, but the same can be said about Marmol now compared to Marmol 2010…
that was 7 years ago. 2010 was last year (or 2 years ago). Whichever you cut it, Marmol is a much better bet than Lidge.
Financial commitments even, sure, but not at $17MM.
Marmol, last 3 years: averaged 1.47 fWAR. 2.94 fWAR – $17MM = roughly negative $3.77M.
Lidge, last 3 years: averaged -0.07 fWAR. -0.07 fWAR – $4M = roughly negative $5.32M.
Again with the three year endpoints, eh? We get it, Lidge sucked in 2009. Completely different pitcher now. He probably won’t be on the mound much in the coming years and I certainly won’t bet him being a closer because these guys just don’t last long. Not sure if what you’re getting is that I’d rather have Lidge than Marmol as my closer, because, well, I kind of would rather have neither.
Also, past performance from closers over multi-year spans – particularly those of over two years – RARELY indicates future success for same-length spans.
Okay then, use last 2 years:
Marmol, last 2 years: averaged 1.9 fWAR. 3.8 fWAR – $17M = $0.01M
Lidge, last 2 years: averaged 0.3 fWAR. 0.3 fWAR – $4M = negative $2.65M
Edit: Then why the hell are we arguing this? Lidge is terrible, Marmol is nearly as bad. I don’t want either.
You’re kind of missing my point about the whole past success not ensuring future success and 2010 Marmol being a figment of history.
But, yeah, neither is someone I’d want as a closer.
Then what’s the point of even signing “proven” closers like Rivera? Yeah, he was elite for 15 years, but none of that matters because past success doesn’t ensure future success. That means signing Rivera to a long term contract is the same as signing Brad Lidge to a same long term contract, which is ridiculous.
I suppose I should elaborate. Carlos Marmol has, for the better part of his career, relied on pure velocity and gobs of effort in his delivery to blow people away. It’s just the way he pitches, and it works. But it only works for a short time until the rigors of closing and all of that effort sap his arm of that velocity and render him as a nice complimentary reliever.
What makes guys like Mariano Rivera, Dennis Eckersley, and Trevor Hoffman seemingly able to close until their dying day is the fact that they really don’t rely on pure velocity or on max-effort deliveries: they use either movement (Rivera) or deception (Hoffman). But that’s not the typical closer, it wasn’t Lidge, it’s not Marmol, and it certainly isn’t Papelbon (LOLPhillies).
Of course, there are outliers with all things, and the big example for the hard-throwing camp is Billy Wagner. But there’s really only one Billy Wagner in the last 20 years, and a veritable wasteland of Gagne’s, Wetteland’s, Nen’s, Benitez’s, Rocker’s, Mantei’s, Urbina’s, and Ryan’s.
i think people should be more concerned with marmol 2015 and beyond if they think handing him 40+MM bux is a good idea
I think people should be concerned with Marmol 2011 and beyond.
as much as Lidge?
Honestly, yes. 2010 Marmol isn’t coming back, I guarantee it. His velocity drop is here to stay unless he needs major surgery – the only closer I can think of in my brief study who ever gained velocity after seeing the first signs of serious drop-off was Billy Wagner in 2010, and he needed TJ to get that velo back. Marmol lost about 3 mph last year from 2011, so the 2010 Marmol is here to stay.
I’d be willing to bet that Lidge’s ERA is lower than Marmol’s in 2012. He won’t be on the mound long enough to have similar overall value, but I do think he’ll be more effective when he’s out there.
ask brett anderson how throwing tons of sliders is working out.
It’s a good recipe for effectiveness, particularly for once-late-inning relievers who have lost the power to their fastballs, but a bad recipe for staying healthy.
Marmol is a mess
Id sign lidge to be a set up guy if he were able to get his fast ball back above 88 but im not sure he will close again unless the guy he sets up for just sux out loud or gets hurt. but your right worth a shot if he comes cheap
Where do you people keep getting your info that Villaneuva will be a reliever? He is now a starter as he proved himself before hitting the DL. Expect him in the top 5 rotation. If anyone is going to the bullpen it’s Litsch, Drabek, McGowan or Cecil.
Where do you get your info that Villanueva will be a starter? He was drastically better as a reliever as a starter and he won’t be a starter unless he is somehow pressed into the role. He came back after his stint on the DL as a reliever for a reason, he is simply better and more suited there.
Oh and no chance Drabek ends up in the pen next year. The kid can still be kept in the minors to work things out and there’s no reason to give up on him as a starter just because he had 1 bad year when he was 23.
umm seriously?
When he came back from the DL was he put back in the rotation?
Litsch is already in the bullpen.
Mcgowan will be given every opportunity to start because of his ceiling and because they decided that rest days are more important to keep him healthy
Drabek in the bullpen? Seriously?
Cecil, maybe, one day, but he’s probably ahead of Charlie on the depth charts so when the day comes that Brett is put in the pen, it will be to join Villanueva.
Villanueva filled in admirably when the rotation needed help, but that doesn’t mean he’s a starter moving forward, a few times around the league and batters started to knock him around.
He’s much better as a starter though… he’s not needed in the bullpen we have enough spots for it. Cecil and McGowan should fight for #5 spot. Drabek needs to stay put in AAA
He’s not better starting than in the bullpen though, and like I said, Cecil will be given a chance to start over Villanueva..
So if the jays dont acquire a starter it will be Romero-Morrow-Mcgowan-Cecil-Alvarez
if they do require another starter, it will be Romero-Morrow-starter-Alvarez- Mcgowan/Cecil
Unless their are a bunch of injuries in spring training, Villanueva will start in the bullpen.
If McGowan progresses as the Jays like, then I wouldn’t expect Cecil to be around much longer. He simply does NOT have the stuff to keep up in the AL East; and his softer tossing style isn’t really suited to the ‘pen either. AA has repeatedly said that they Jays are strongly interested in hard throwing, ground-ball pitchers. Romero, Morrow, Alvarez and McGowan all proved last year that they are very good, hard throwing ground-ball pitchers.
I’d also like to bring up Morrow’s splits from the last two years:
’10 Home: 8-1, 82.0 IP, 2.74 ERA, 24 BB’s, 97 K’s
’10 Away: 2-6, 64.1 IP, 6.72 ERA, 42 BB’s, 81 K’s
’11 Home: 4-8, 91.1 IP, 6.31 ERA, 36 BB’s, 105 K’s
’11 Away: 5-2, 88.0 IP, 3.07 ERA, 33 BB’s, 98 K’s
If Morrow can figure it out, there’s really no need to bring in another starter, as Morrow has posted Cy Young type numbers if you are to combine his ’10 home and ’11 road stats. He’s had success both at home, and on the road, so what’s left? He needs to draw from his success and build on it – If all goes well (best case scenario), he could seriously challenge for the AL Cy Young.
wow what a weird home/road split
The 1.60 ERA as a reliever compared to a 5.15 ERA as a starter disagrees with you.
His low percentage of quality starts should be the icing on the cake.
Doubt very much Villaneuva is in the rotation.
After Romero and Morrow,(and whoever they add via trade or FA to go with those two) the rotation will most likely consist of Alvarez and either Cecil, Drabek or McGowan.
Whomever they like best out of spring training.
Litsch and Villaneuva are most likely done as starters.
AA could really buy low on Broxton. I like the idea, he’s worth taking a chance on at least. Can’t be any worse than two-headed monster of Frank Frank and Rauch.
The problem is that you are going to have to over pay for a free agent!
I agree. kinda like repeating what we’ve done the past few years in taking chances on retreads and questionable arms for the 8th and 9th but theres no sense in spending 10m+ on a FA reliever.
With Francisco likely leaving we’ll need to replace him with another FA or trade.
So those two (Broxton/Harden) would be interesting.
Who’s going to be in the rotation? Villanueva & Cecil are the 4th & 5th starters next year?
romero, morrow, alvarez, mcgowan and a 5th starter
Guess the Jays won’t be “Coming Hard” at any closers?
I kind of hope Dayton Moore is taking notice… If the FA price for closers is that high, Soria and his club friendly contract should be able to be the centerpiece of a deal for a quality starter.
if a team has a quality starter to spare, why wouldnt they just put him in the pen instead of given them up for a one trick pony?
Because a mid-rotation starter probably won’t make as good of a closer as Soria is? Unless you’re looking at Edwin Jackson’s clone as your spare starter, you’re probably not going to find someone with the electric fastball to pitch in the ninth inning in some spare, mid-rotation starter that’s lying around.
unless we’re talking about a mariano, a good young, controllable mid rotation starter will almost always be worth more than any reliever.
Well of course, but that wasn’t the scenario that was framed. As a starter, he’ll be worth more than the reliever, but if moved to the ‘pen because of a surplus of starters, as you suggested, he’ll likely be worth less than the guy who is already a phenomenal reliever.
People seem to forget that most good closers were once failed starters.
I very much did not forget this, but you forgot an important detail. Most closers are actually a very specific type of failed starter, a starter who had one or two excellent pitches but no third pitch. Quite a lot of #3 starters in the big leagues don’t have the two killer pitches that are typically required to close, but instead have a balance of three pitches that are all above-average (maybe with a plus pitch). If moved to the ‘pen, that three above-average pitches < one/two dominant pitches.
strange, because that’s exactly how Soria operates. He uses 5 pitches, a fastball, cutter, curveball, slider, and changeup. Not one of them is a dominant pitch. He doesn’t have a +95 MPH fastball or disgusting slider. Instead, he gets by using a combination of all his pitches. This is exactly the opposite of what you just described.
In fact, Soria would make a very good starter. I don’t know why they haven’t converted him yet.
Four pitches, almost 75% fastballs according to FanGraphs. Might add a bit of cut to a fastball on occasion but it’s not enough for FanGraphs to recognize that he’s thrown even a single cutter in his career. Heavens knows how it works, but that sounds a lot like a closer to me. The three off-speed offerings are unusual, sure, but he rarely uses each of them and he’s also a bit atypical in that his “dominant” results are more the product of low BABIPs and walk rates than exorbitant K-Rates, like most supposed “closers” have.
Over last 2 years: 53.9% Cut Fastball, 22.2% 4-seam Fastball, 8.8% Changeup, 8.1% Slider, 7.0% Curveball.
According to Texas Leaguers.
FG clearly not seeing the cutters and fastballs as materially different….
…. Except that on their Pitch f/x charts, they have cutters cropping up in 2010. No fastballs in 2010, then a mix between fastballs and cut fastballs in 2011. Weird one, FanGraphs.
However, the difference between the two pitches seems pretty minimal. Vertical movement nearly identical, horizontal movement typically within five inches of each other. Still awfully confusing, though.
Texas Leaguers is much more accurate than FanGraphs when it comes to Pitch f/x. Arm slot and velocity are pretty different for the two fastballs.
Can’t claim to be an expert on the differences between the two. Soria would probably make a solid starter if the pitches are as different as TL suggests. Shame the Royals probably won’t try it.
Maybe Soria is injury prone or has a violent delivery, the other reason a good starter is converted to a reliever, I’m not speaking from a factual basis here, I actually want this question answered I’ve barely seen Soria pitch.
It’s called scouting, AA appears to be afraid to take a chance because of what has happened in the past. He is a 4th place team trying to move up, you can’t do that unless you are the Rays and stink for a number of years. Then you will be drafting in the top 10 and get players like Starling, Hultzen, or Bundy. These players look to be can’t miss.
some of the rays’ best players were drafted after the 1st round, so you dont necessarily have to suck to get good players through the draft. many players fall because of signability, so if you’re willing to pay you can still get high end talent late in the draft, which the jays have done.
Well if they were not content with Rasmus, I think they might be able to get Brandon League back for him. Maybe Zduriencik would take Lind for League. The M’s could use a power hitting DH more than a closer at this time.
I don’t think AA would trade Rasmus for League even if he had a gun pointed at his head.
it would really depend on the type of gun in my opinion.
but then he’d be dead
But then Tony LaCava will just slide in!
How high is LaCava’s midichlorian count? Not as high as AA’s I’d wager.
The Rasmus trade was a bad one for the Jays, just another below average player.
Do you know what they actually let go to get him? Spare parts and one younger lefty specialist who could excel at the role—-for a young, controllable, potential all-star player. It worked out for the Cards, and hopefully it will work out for the Jays, but don’t label him a “below average player” at this point in his career–not even you–in all of your evidently OBVIOUS baseball knowledge can say that yet
Him calling Rasmus a below average player is no different than you calling Rzep a lefty specialist. That’s what they were this year but both have a lot more potential.
Is that not what he did this year and is it not what he seemed to excelled at this year? Why would they want him for something other than that–it is a high leverage, very important role. Check out his numbers as a starter or middle reliever, not nearly as impressive when he faces an entire order especially a number of times through. The jays struggled with finding a role for him, and I personally really liked him in that role. But considering he is not in the American League East anymore, he could perfom better than what he did for the Jays as a starter or middle reliever–
Yes that is what he did this year just like Rasmus was a well below average player. They both have potential to be much more. Rzep has the upside to be a very good MOR starter, just as Rasmus has the potential to be an all star cf.
Look— I am not knocking Rzep, and I hated the fact that he was in the trade. For the last 3 years i have seen him struggle to find a role on the team, and I seen him pitch a good game and then get hammered in the next two, all the while I cheered for him to make it as a starter. This year he seemed to have found his role as a lefty specialist, and he was awesome doing that job, but it was a small sample size. However, as far as his upside, when compared to that of Rasmus is certainly not the same. Rasmus could be flop, but given the volitility of relievers from year to year, so could Rzep. All things being equal I would much rather take the potential value of a Rasmus over that of Rzep who has struggled as a starter. At best Rzep would probably slot in as a #4 or #5 starter, i don’t agree with your analysis of his future potential being anything more than that.
and I’m not knocking Rasmus. I liked him. I also don’t care if you think Rzep can be a starter or not. A lot of people around St. Louis can say the same about Rasmus. He had some good times and showed his potential, then he had some really ugly times. It’s just not fair to knock someone for calling him a below average player and then you say Rzep is a lefty specialist.
If that trade doesn’t happen Scrabble is in bullpen in 2012. It sounds kinda weak to call Scrabble a lefty specialist because he did well for the Jays. But even if he becomes a middle of the rotation starter, there wasn’t a spot for him in the rotation in Toronto.
Hopefully he is a good addition to the Cardinals rotation, but if that trade doesn’t happen, he wouldn’t have the opportunity to be a starter.
haha…you’re kidding right? Are you trying to say he only has a chance to be a starter because the Cardinals rotation isn’t as good? If a guy is good enough to be a starter, you make him a starter. The Cardinals rotation is stacked with guys ahead of him but that shouldn’t stop them from seeing what he can do as a starter. If he turns out to be a decent starter, that’s a lot more valuable than out of the bullpen.
He will most likely come out of the pen in 2012 for the Cardinals, but that doesn’t mean that’s his ceiling. Cardinals have Carp, Wainwright, Garcia, Lohse, Westbrook and Lynn on the big league roster that are all starters. They also have 2 of the top 5 pitching prospects in all of baseball.
No, I was trying to be nice. I guess we agree. He has failed as a starter and is now a LEFTY SPECIALIST.
In the same way the Colby Rasmus has failed as a CF and is now a ~.200 hitter? Then yes, we agree.
I never called him (Rzep) a below average player, and the truth is he is a lefty specialist to this point, and does not really project to be much more. Me calling him a lefty specialist is not an insult, look at my post-these guys come in to the game in high leverage situations, which would also suggest a more prominent role than just a “middle reliever”. I am suggesting to you two things, IMO a lefty specialist is important and good on him for for that and excelling at it, and secondly that generally speaking he does not have the same potential upside as Rasmus does. If he can find himself as a middle of the order starter in the NL, then great, but his “stuff” has not translated like that in the AL and his numbers suggest that.
Don’t want League back. He’s been fantastic at home and terrible on the road.
I don’t see why they had to put the Rasmus piece in there. Obviously their content with him.
slow news day
When a headline is that AA is shocked that a player’s price is high…it’s been an uneventful day.
What I don’t understand is why Anthopolous was so defensive when he called Rasmus an upgrade :shrug:
because he knows how batshit crazy most fans are. just wants to prevent them from jumping all over rasmus after 100 PA’s.
Might go without saying, but there’s a pretty natural fit here to bring Brandon League back to the Jays. They’re heavy in prospects, and one of those young catchers would be right up the M’s alley.
He’s only got 1 year of control. I wouldn’t give up any of the C prospects straight up for League.
I seem to be the only person that remembers what League was like with the Jays. Every time he was out on the mound, I was afraid of a 3 or 4 or 5 run inning. Even watching him with the Mariners, it was the same old Brandon League. In my opinion, he just got lucky and converted a good chunk of his save opportunities.
er, no. He’s pretty good. Pretty much the equal of Francisco. Not something worth trading a whole lot for, but nice to have.
edit: He also seems to have changed since he became a Mariner. More of a “Pitch-to-contact” guy now, in a good sense (if that’s possible)
I guess ackley would be coming back our way in this scenario?
League is the guy the Jays should have kept, he has nasty stuff, no wonder they are looking for pitching the Jays traded it all away in the past few years and now AA is crying that the market is too high. Go figure!
Oh yes a setup man who became a closer for a number 2 starter horrible trade, also realistically there’s no reason any one of the pitchers jn the jays bullpen can’t step up and be a closer just like league did look at beck he’s got the stuff
Morrow is brutal, he’s a number 2 starter on 4th place teams like the Blue Jays.
A fourth place team that probably could have competed for the title in three out of six major league divisions.
His 3.4 WAR and 3.64 FIP suggest otherwise. Morrow was definitely a victim of poor outfield defence. A full season of Colby Rasmus in CF will certainly help Morrow’s ERA.
Snider will also help, he’s a much better fielder than Thames
4.85 ERA, 1.462WHIP 2.33SO/BB. Who would want to keep that?
League was great while in TO, except those long centre field moon shots I seem to recall him giving up to NY and Boston. I wish him well in Sealttle, but I see no chance of reacquiring him now that he is established there.
Carlos Marmol is likely available.
he also comes with a 17 mil price tag
however considering its only for 2 years it wouldn’t be such a bad idea depending on what would have to go the cubs way.
Marmols one of my fave pitchers in the league.
If the Jays ate all of the contract, not as much as if the Cubs took on some of it. Dude’s got tons of value, but his price tag kills much of it.
I like the idea though.
I’d argue his price tag is getting more and more attractive. This relief market is full of potential closers, and Papelbon still got 4/50. I’d think Marmol is highly movable, if the Cubs wanted to do it.
If they did, I’d guess they’d slot Cashner in as the closer for next year, to let him build up his arm for the rotation in 2013.
Dude’s unhittable when he’s on!
well, technically, he’s unhittable when he’s off, too. He’ll be walking everyone.
Ask Vladdy if a pitch is unhittable.
He’s also rapidly on the decline. Average fastball velocity went from 94.1 mph in ’10 to 91.8 mph in ’11, and having done some similar research to what AA reportedly did, that velocity doesn’t come back once it starts leaving. Marmol’s doing the smart thing as far as effectiveness goes and throwing more sliders, but the arm is clearly showing signs of breaking down, and the sliders are probably going to eat at his elbow pretty quickly.
I’m afraid the end is nigh for Marmol. Just another fabulous Hendry move.
crap, nevermind
64% – 59% < 0!!! 🙂
If I was the Braves, I’d look at shopping Johnny Venters for a boatload of prospects.
He’d be a really good closer, but I trust Kimbrel more, and I think EOF and Medlen would be lights out at 7th/8th inning guys as well. Also, the Braves have so many guys that some will be converted to lights-out relievers as well.
??? Why would the Braves trade a cost-controlled, ridiculously good reliever?
because they have so many arms, they could use one or two to fill some holes.
Braves usually don’t go the FA route. its not the worst idea actually, but a team would have to pay handsomely
Why would they trade Venters though? They should trade O’flaherty. He’s the worst of the three.
he’d also be the least likely to bring back something significant to improve their offense.
Braves are literally stacked with pitching prospects, they can stand to lose a couple of important pieces if it means they get some offense. Jays don’t match up with the braves will though.
And would get the least haul, since he’s 1 yr from FA.
I’d be ok with trading EOF as well though, if it meant getting the player we really wanted (in addition to a Prado or JJ combination, EOF himself doesn’t have great value as trade bait, you’re not getting say Dexter Fowler or Headley for EOF)
I don’t know, I just think trading Venters seems like a huge waste for the Braves. The guy’s a monster. Him and Kimbrel should be the best relief 1-2 combo in baseball for the foreseeable future
a good back of the bullpen only matters if the team has the lead.
and having the lead only matters if you can keep the lead. It works both ways.
The Braves made their pitching trade dumping Lowe, remember a good trade is one that works out for both teams.
That knocks the Jays out of the picture.
Because they break down remarkably quickly?
that’s true
You’d be selling high on Venters, too. He’s also run out of gas the past two Septembers. I think you could get a ton for Everyday Jonny, move EOF or Medlen into the eighth-inning role, and do just fine.
What? No more BJ Ryans on the market!! Ha no closer in baseball can keep you out of 4th place
If every closer on the market gets a 4 year deal of at least 40 million in value we’ll have one of the most amusing offseasons for bad contracts. I look forward to it.!
I can’t see why the Jays are so shocked, it’s only a million or two more than what the Jays forked out for BJ Ryan. We could say they set the market that lead to these outrageious prices. It’s basic supply and demand. There’s short supply of proven closers and many teams who need one. If I was a closer or his agent, I wouldn’t exploit this as much as I could.
he’s basically saying this doesn’t make any sense so I’m not doing it.
of course the supply and demand has lead to the contracts, but it doesn’t mean every team will partake
“I can’t see why the Jays are so shocked, it’s only a million or two more than what the Jays forked out for BJ Ryan.”
…that’s exactly his point. he’s shocked people still haven’t learned what is a very obvious and expensive lesson
I think it is called “negotiating”….when you respond with “I am shocked by what you want” in place of…”what you are asking for is perfectly understandable given supply and demand rules….but….we won’t meet your demand”.
“Hi, Ruben, this is Alex in Toronto. I’d like to talk to you about closers. WHY DID YOU SET THE MARKET SO DAMN HIGH? THEY ALL THINK THEY CAN GET 10 YEAR DEALS!!!”
“Alex, I’m not quite certain I see the problem.”
Then Anthopoulos acquires Bastardo for a bag of balls.
I’m quite relieved.
you were worried?
All hail AA!
says the guy who uses the same name as travis snider twitter…. addicted much?
Knowing the way Alex works, he would just grab Aumont and De Fratus from the Phillies for Thames and Encarnacion. The Jays would then have the same 1 – 2 punch in the eighth and ninth that many Phillie fans hoped to see in 2012, only on the Phillies team. lol. Aumont is from Montreal which is an added bonus. I would love to see an all-Canadian team beat up on their US counterparts. lol.
League, anyone that says he should actually be traded back to the Jays for more than a rookie ball player is delusional. Toronto watched too many years of Brandon League and for fans in Toronto, Brian Tallet was a better pitcher and everyone knows what a disaster he was. League pitches to contact and unfortunately, in Toronto, too many of the contact pitches sailed over the left-field wall, or were moon-shots to center field. Safeco park isn’t the Rogers center, where pitchers can get away with mistakes. In Toronto, New York, Boston, the normal outs in Seattle are 3-run homers in those cities.
“I would love to see an all-Canadian team beat up on their US counterparts.”
No one cares.
“Toronto watched too many years of Brandon League and for fans in
Toronto, Brian Tallet was a better pitcher and everyone knows what a
disaster he was.”
Are you being purposefully ignorant? I just can’t tell.
Pap set the high bar. Every deal from here on it will be smaller and smaller so it’s a lot of posturing by a good but overrated GM.
“Every deal from here on it will be smaller and smaller”
Okay
“so it’s a lot of posturing by a good but overrated GM”
Huh?
If the Jays want to be cheap with money they can trade prospect but that price isn’t going to be cheap either.
I just (like, literally yesterday) did research along the lines of AA’s following the Papelbon signing. These guys break down most often between the ages of 31-33, and the only real shining examples in the last 20 years of hard-throwing closers showing any real longevity are Dennis Eckersley and Billy Wagner. Not sure I’d give someone in this market four years because I’m banking on them being the next Billy Wagner….
Oh, and to address the “ZOMGZ MARIANO RIVERA” cries, the dude isn’t really a hard thrower. He gets by with his disgustingly good movement. Like, really, it’s just silly.
And Eckersley wasn’t a particularly hard thrower his final three or four years. His control was unreal and that slider/changeup/whatever it was could be unhittable. So yeah, Wagner’s the only truly hard throwing closer with any longevity.
I wouldnt mind Hanrahan from the Pirates. Few years left of control. Not gonna be a 18 million price tag like marmol. Throw two B prospects to the pirates and closer situation fixed.
Because, if he was available, he’d only fetch 2 B prospects, right?
Frank: You are everywhere.
I am. I wish I could be at more places though.
casey janssen…call him the closer…done.
Hanrahan, Bailey or Street IMO.
Any guesses on what it would take the Jays to get Phillips from the Reds?
why would they want to?
Because he is one of the best 2b in the major leagues?
Exactly. That’s why he won’t be traded. Duh.
I don’t get it. they don’t have any in house options?
What about RP League/ RP Dan Cortez / 2B Kyle Seager for 3B Brett Lawrie?
haaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Wtf?? Are you serious????
Not a chance Bob. Lawrie, if you didn’t know, is the best player in the league, and should be in the Hall Of Fame already.
ya…fans are thinking Lawrie is good only because the start of his career is comparable to the stats of Hall of Fame third basemen at the start of their career. Stupid Blue Jays fans.
Did u seriously just offer up Lawrie? Brutal. and for what…not much
If we could get League, Cortez and Seager… That’d be incredible.
Definitely not giving up Lawrie though…
Is there a shift in baseball that everyone’s kind of sitting on right now? Like the new thing is to go hard after bullpen arms?
-You saw the RP market go practically stagnant at the 2010 deadline because the price for guys like Scott Downs was just stupid.
-You saw 3-year deals getting carted out for guys like Joaquim Benoit a year ago… Scott Downs, Jesse Crain, guys like that… all got decent-sized deals
-Trade deadline this year the Rangers and Cardinals go berzerk trading for relief arms
-This offseason we’re seeing the first two closer contracts offered be ludicrously high..
Not that those things enough on their own are indicative of a trend, but are front offices re-thinking relievers all of a sudden?
I’d be disappointed if they were, I understand the value the reliever provides but that effectively eliminates my favorite part of baseball, the starting pitcher who finishes what he started.
SIGN PUJOLS TO CLOSE OUT THE GAMES
oh my
ONE OR TWO STUPID CONTRACTS CAUSE A BURRITO. JUST CAUSE ITS A BURRITO DOESN’T MEAN ITS FOR REAL
Wha….
You gotta pay to play.
that’s the philosophy which has taken the rays to the playoffs 3 of the last 4 years! (!)
So that automatically means they Jays can do it.
the player the Jays should trade is Travis Snider. if you have an OF of Bautista/Rasmus and Thames/Davis in LF with Encarnacion at DH, there’s no room for Snider. Snider has shown he can hit in the minors, but 3 years now hasn’t done much in the majors.
Ramus obviously didn’t do well with the Jays last season, but he is still capable of repeating/improving on what he did in 2010.
U know between all the juggling around of snider the jays have done he actually has only played one seasons worth of years even if they were spread out so don’t give up sooo easily
trading snider now would be dumping him when his value is low.
His value is just going to get lower…..
based on what?
you’re the same guy who flipped when we put Villanueva in the 2012 bullpen, your opinion is fluff
My opinion is my opinion, much like yours is too. He will get lower because he’s going to start in AAA. Thames is going to make left field and has proven his bat is more consistent. Snider keeps having to make adjustments and I don’t see how he can improve unless he stays in the minors longer…
I agree. I think we deal Snider while he is worth something.
Isn’t Kyle Drabek ready?
Romero-Morrow-Drabek-McGowan-Cecil
Ready, just overrated as hell.
by scouts?
ya…stupid MLB scouts…what do they know about rating baseball players?
You wouldn’t put Alvarez back in the starting rotation? if not, why not?
I would…. Romero-Morrow-Villaneuva-Alvarez-Drabek/McGowan/Cecil/or a new starter
lol villanueva is not going to start did you just skip all the stats list on the previous page that disprove this opinion completely?
You don’t know that he won’t be, your not manager. How can you say no to an idea that worked before he hit the DL and an idea that is still possible (maybe not in your eyes but the actual organization it might be if needed).
After the Red Sox sign their closer, I would expect the price to drop. Heath Bell would be a good fit for the Jays IMO
Not if it takes a pick to sign him AND he wants three to four years.
For the Jays yes, but for Bell – no. He’s already expressed accepting arb. from San Diego because he wants to stay with a team on the West coast.
The comment board beneath that Sun article makes me appreciate MLBTR all the more.
haha, the mlb site usually does that to me too.
Love the talk of Phillps. Really good glove, really good bat, and a real character guy. Someone to help keep locker room loose and and some quotes to the media. Would really help bring some attention to the Jays in and around TO.
There is no “talk” of Phillips. It was an off the wall suggestion by a Jays writer/homer.
Jays won’t acquire Phillips. His contract is too much.
what? do some research before you post please
His option is worth more than 10m a year, and Reds will want too many prospects. You do your research… I’m from Toronto I know what I’m talking about lol
its a 1 year option though
Funny, AA is shocked and RA offers 2 closers 4+ year deals in the matter of days.
How does RA have a ring?
Don’t know which way your comment is going, but AA keeps making himself look smarter. That Papelbon deal is gonna bite the Phillies.
50 MM for Papelbon, that´s what I call “shocked”
Can McGowan be considered a lock for the rotation then?
hh
Thoughts on Cespedes.. would it makes sense for the jays?
Alex, Just hurry up and sign Madson for 4 years and $40M. Its only adding $10M/yr onto our payroll and we will still be under $100M payroll. Its gotta happen, so just let it happen.
I’m glad the Jays aren’t willing to spend big money and long term on relief pitching, as for the most part it makes 0 sense. A guy like Nathan could be interesting, depending on the price. Bailey is another guy that has been brought up in trade talks, another guy i’d be happy with, depending on what Toronto was giving up. The Brandon Phillips talk interests me more, as I think he’d be a great fit in Toronto…but he’d probably cost a kings ransom, coming off his best year ever.
Am I the only one that laughs when i read grown men on the internet complaining about people who type in CAPS instead of what the person wrote? Who cares if a person writes in caps it still reads the same.
So the Blue Jays are satisfied with Colby Rasmus in CF, and consider him a good defender? Have they actually seen him play yet? And yes, I know he finished the season there, but it’s still a valid question, seeing as he hit less than .200 for them after the trade, and the Cardinals considered Jon Jay an upgrade in CF.
they considered his bat an upgrade..
and only in the short term
Brandon Phillips is available? News to me.
This is why the Jays will never compete, they don’t want to spend. They need a closer. Either give up some prospects or open your wallet cause that’s the only way the Jays are going to get someone who can close games.
The years the Jays won the world series, they had the highest payroll in baseball. I don’t need them to be #1 again, but Rogers can afford to be in the top 10, and we’re not even close. Stop being such cheapies and SPEND ALREADY!!!!