Although many are considering it a given that Yu Darvish will join the offseason's free agent class in the coming weeks, there's no guarantee that Darvish will be posted, as Yahoo's Jeff Passan wrote yesterday. Passan wonders if the right-hander might end up subtly protest NPB's posting system by remaining in Japan, and spoke to one general manager who has the same worries:
"I’m concerned we're not going to see him for a few more years," said the GM. "He's not your average Japanese player. I get the impression he wants to stand for something."
Here are the rest of the latest Darvish-related notes:
- Not all GMs are concerned about Darvish staying in Japan. One who has scouted the 25-year-old for years told Passan, "He's coming. The money is too good. He makes [$7MM] there. He'll be guaranteed $50MM or $60MM here."
- SI.com's Jon Heyman agrees, tweeting that Darvish is still "more likely than not" to be posted.
- Hal Steinbrenner said the Yankees won't be affected by Kei Igawa's lack of success when deciding whether to bid on Darvish, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
- Tom Verducci of SI.com cites Igawa and others when looking at some rocky NPB-to-MLB transitions in the past.
If Hal wants Darvish his going to be a yankees, that’s if he wants the most money which the Yankees will probably offer him.
Wow That’s crazy…those Yankees offering the most money. Carlos alert the media
It doesn’t work that way. Darvish isn’t going to be a free agent with the ability to choose where he wants to go. Whichever teams submits the highest blind bid gets the exclusive negotiating rights with him, and if he doesn’t accept the numbers they offer he has to go back to Japan.
I love these type of comments. Why does MLBTR talkback for Free Agents even exist if apparently “YANKEES CAN OFFER MOST THAT’S ALL THAT MATTERS DERP”
nah. It’s the Miami Marlins these days…
Well, in all fairness, when it comes to the posting system, that is pretty much all that matters.
Darvish is a world class star pitcher and it would cool to see him in the majors next year.
Hopefully if he wants to pitch in the MLB he gets his chance sooner not later.
A Japanese all-star team in the MLB would be cool. But that can’t happen.
Part of me wonders if the Yankees are just pumping up the market for Darvish so that other clubs will have less money to spend, a la Carl Crawford last season.
Still, the Yankees could use pitching.
But wouldn’t Darvish be smarter to just wait a year and be in for an even bigger payday by being a free agent? 1 year means the difference between his club getting an extra 50 million and him getting the 50 million
I think he has to wait 2 or 3 years before he is eligible to be a free agent under the Japanese rules.
The FA marketing for starting pitching stinks this year. The younger he is, the less miles on his arm — even though he has quite a bit.
This is the year to do it if he’s going to do it and maximize his earning potential long-term (this contract, plus a potential second contract).
He’s not a free agent until 2014.
CJ Wilson’s agent is the one spreading rumors about Darvish not being posted lol.
Why spend on this guy, he hasnt proved anything
Because his potential ceiling is the highest of anyone on the free agent market this year. Also when you look at salary counting towards the luxury tax he will cost less than CJ Wilson, while being 6 years younger than Wilson.
He’s also by far and away the best prospect to ever come out of Japan, posting 5 straight seasons of a sub 2 ERA. If a prospect had posted his numbers even 2 years in a row in Triple A he would be the number 1 prospect in baseball.
Yeah but the japanese league isnt impressive at all? Nishioka destroyed the japanese league and didnt do much this year. Darvish can dominate japanese league hitters, but big league hitters? Spending 50 million just to negotiate with a “prospect” then dishing out another 70 plus million. Besides Ichiro and Matsui, there isnt much credibility. I realize he has loads of potential for a prospect so big market teams can afford it
Well, Nishioka did kind of break his leg right at the beginning of the season.
I have a hard time understanding how NPB players break anything. They wear more armor at the plate than an M4A3 Sherman.
He broke his leg in the field when someone slid into him trying to break up a double play. They may wear armor at the plate, but not when they’re on defense.
While there has been notable pitching failures, I think Darvish is nothing close to someone like Daisuke or any other pitchers to come from Japan. Daisuke never had full season era below 2 while Darvish did it 5 consecutive years. And Darvish’s frame is your typical MLB power pitchers body with long lengthy arms which probably gives him more perceived velocity on top of his already plus velocity for a pitcher coming out of Japan (a bit skinny looking tho).
I am more concerned about how Yu Darvish will hold up when he has to pitch every 5th day then his stuff. He has a filthy curveball of what little I saw of him too.
You hit the nail on the head for biggest adjustment for Japanese pitchers. Completely changing your in between starts routine and pitching every 5th day is the biggest hurdle any Japanese pitcher faces. There really is no way to know how someone will handle that until they do it.
The Japanese leagues is comparable to Triple A from all reports from scouts on the subject. I just think it would be silly to dismiss going after someone like Darvish because his countrymen who have nothing to do with him failed. It would be like signing Cespedes and him failing, then swearing off all Cubans from that point on. Or the same scenario with a Dominican or Canadian player. Each player has to be judged on his own merits and 5 straight years of a sub 2 ERA are some impressive merits.
Besides Matsui and Ichiro Hiroki Kuroda has been a very valuable pitcher for the Dodgers, and while Hideo Nomo had his ups and downs I don’t think you can qualify his career as a failure.
I know this is silly to ask and I’ll just put it out there. Could his hesitation be in part, that he is half Iranian? I apologize if that is a semi ignorant comment, but with the political spectrum being what it is, I just wonder if there is any outside (family) pressure. Probably incredibly unlikely this means anything, just a quick thought.
His dad is iranian and he met his mother in America at a liberal-arts school in St. Petersburg, Fla.
You know what you’re right. I didn’t want to ask, but was just curious considering whats going out there, outside of baseball.
It’s a legitimate question to ask.
There’s something outside of baseball?
Ha. Right.
I refuse to believe it.
In that case he can just come to the Toronto Blue Jays.
“He’s not your average Japanese player. I get the impression he wants to stand for something.”
bahaha so most Japanese players don’t???
I found that a weird statement as well.
Well he wants to stand for more money. Hell, I’ll stand for more money. Sitting is overrated anyway.
I bet you were sitting when you typed that comment, though 😉
Yea because no one will pay me to stand :(.
If darvish really likes to play to America, he should do it as soon as possible because japanese pitchers are already overused by their teams in japan by the year…
And pitchers in MLB are babied and still get hurt.Wow MLB pitchers are so soft these days
I hear that Darvish was brought up rather slowly and carefully at least compared to guys like Daisuke who was literally beaten tell his arms fell off.
20yo 207ip
21yo 200ip
22yo 182ip
23yo 202ip
24yo ??? but I’ll speculate over 200 again
doesn’t see like he was brought up slow to me…
relative to another japanese pitcher, Matsuzaka. His arm was absolutely destroyed and overtaxed. It`s too bad, he could`ve amounted to so much more if managed better when he was younger.
I LOVE Hal. Imagine he’s not going to let the singular bad experience with Igawa affect his decisions going forward. He’s going to rationally analyze each situation on it’s own merits. If he keeps Hankenstein and Levine at bay, Hal and Cashman + all the Yankee money can bring us back to the kind of dominance we enjoyed in the middle part of the 20th century.
I have a feeling Darvish is better than CJ Wilson. Wilson is nothing special and I am a little surprised that clubs think he is any better than an innings eater #4 guy.
#4 SP don’t generally post ERA’s below 3.4 for 200+ innings in consecutive seasons.
This probably sounds off and unconventional, but If Darvish is used to pitching every 7 or 8 days or so, is it concievable for a team to keep him on that routine?
I know they’d skip his regular spot in the rotation, but wouldn’t you rather have a situation he’s more used to in order to maximize his value in the rotation? In the MLB, you have a standard 5 man rotation, but if a team has a long reliever capable of spot starting here and there, I’d think about it. Give him his regular rest and keep his arm in its/his routine. It would obviously lower his “starting opportunities”, but it would also keep him fresh.
I guess what I’m getting at is, would you rather take 170 or so + innings from him at a premium, or go 200+ so-so innings?
I understand this would throw the rest of your rotation guys off their regularly scheduled starts, but imo, it would give you more of a 5.5 man rotation so to say, so it should lessen the tax on each starters arms.
They pitch once a week in Japan. So it’s 6 days rest, not 7 or 8.
Darvish’s team in the NPB, the Nippon Ham Fighters, used a 5 man rotation for the second half of this season and pitched Yu on the same 4 days rest as MLB pitchers.
Depends on if the Rangers bid and how much they bid. The thing with the blind posting fee is you don’t know how much you actually need to bid to get the rights to the player negotiations.
The Red Sox bid basically 52 million dollars for the rights to negotiate with Dice-K and it turned out they outbid the next team by like 20 million dollars.
I’m kind of hoping the Rangers bid for him. The biggest question for me right now is whether Jon Daniels and Nolan Ryan are going to consider the posting fee as part of the team’s payroll (even though it doesn’t count as actual payroll).
They don’t want to spend too much money this year in order to invest in the core free agent class next year with Hamilton, Napoli, etc. If they consider the posting fee as part of payroll then I don’t think they’re gonna go very high for Darvish. If not, then I think they might swoop in and grab him.
And they just resigned Tateyama, who was actually a teammate of Darvish’s back in Japan before he came over here. That has to be a little bit helpful.