The latest on the Red Sox, via Alex Speier of WEEI.com…
- The Red Sox are currently evaluating five starters for the final two spots in their rotation, Speier writes. Daniel Bard, Alfredo Aceves, Vicente Padilla, Andrew Miller and Felix Doubront are all in the mix for a starting job. Aaron Cook and Ross Ohlendorf could join the competition, but they have yet to pitch in games.
- The Red Sox are open to the idea of trading for a starter during Spring Training or once the season begins, but they’re comfortable with what they have, Speier reports.
- Speier also has the details on the contracts of Boston's pre-arbitration eligible players. Junichi Tazawa($920K) and Mark Melancon ($521K) will earn well over the $480K minimum in 2012. The Red Sox announced today that they have agreed to terms with the 16 players on their 40-man roster who aren't yet arb eligible.
I have to think that Bard and Doubront will secure the number four and five slots. Felix is out of options and I doubt that he becomes the third lefty in the bullpen behind Morales and Hill. That, and I think that half of Boston will go on a murderous rampage if we have to put up with Miller again this season.
I would love to see Bard and one of Doubront or Padilla over the atrocious Miller.
It’s funny, I actually think that the best case scenario would be Miller working out and taking the 5th spot. He has way more upside than either of Padilla or Doubront (if he could ever reign it in and put it all together he has the “stuff” to be a #1-#2 type pitcher), the problem is that he is the least likely to actually be successful (he showed some of his potential in AAA last year, but other than that he hasn’t had any amount of success since college).
“The Red Sox are currently evaluating five starters for the final two spots in their rotation, Speier writes. Daniel Bard, Alfredo Aceves, Vicente Padilla, Andrew Millerand Felix Doubront are all in the mix for a starting job. Aaron Cook and Ross Ohlendorf could join the competition, but they have yet to pitch in games.The Red Sox are open to the idea of trading for a starter during Spring Training or once the season begins, but they’re comfortable with what they have…,”
“…they’re comfortable with what they have…” Every other team in the American League is VERY comfortable with what the Red Sox have.
I wouldn’t sell them short. They did all right with completely dysfunctional 4 and 5s last year. Could those spots be any worse this year? I doubt it. This is coming from a Yankees fan, by the way.
My friend. The way I see it. If Bard and Aceves make the rotation then their bullpen is nowhere as strong as it was last season, because Bailey and Melancon and whoever are not Papelbon, Bard and Aceves. If Bard and Aceves aren’t good enough to make the starting rotation then then yes their 4 and 5 spots this year could/would be worse than than last year.
So like I said in my initial comment as it stands right now. I think every other team in the American League is VERY comfortable with what the Red Sox have.
Bailey and Melancon are not Papelbon or Bard but they are pretty damn close. I think it is reasonable to say that as long as John Lackey is not going to pitch this year …….the Sox are instantly better.
Just my opinion but I think you’re kidding yourself if you believe they are “pretty darn close”.
Bailey hasn’t pitched more in then 47 games or 49 innings since 2009. And Melancon for the last 2 seasons pitched in the Astro Dome in the NL Central a lot different then Fenway and the AL East.
But you’ll find out soon enough how they will do.
lol Dice-K too, but I believe he’s supposed to come back midway through the season if I’m not mistaken. Maybe earlier.
Sox rotation isn’t bad at all…Beckett was in the Cy Young race up until the final month of the season where he and Lester and subsequently the entire Red Sox team fell apart. Buchholz is back. Wakefield isn’t getting thrown out there every fifth day to attain his own personal statistical achievment while racking up loses. Lackey isn’t going to throw a single inning. Bard should be a serviceable starter and Padilla/Dubront shouldn’t be a terrible 5th. Clearly there are a lot of question marks including Daisuke in this rotation but I think they will undoubtedly be better overall than last year.
“Padilla and Doubront shouldn’t be a terrible 5th”. Really, are you sure you want to stick with that comment?
I don’t see why they shouldn’t be. Most projection systems have either of them with a 4ish FIP, which is plenty good for a 5th starter, and Aceves actually projects better than either of them. Lackey had the worst season by any starting pitcher in the history of the Red Sox, so any one of them would be an upgrade over Lackey, and they won 90 games with Lackey in there last year.
I think the real question mark is the #4 spot – how does Bard transition to starting? If Bard transitions to starting as well as they hope there wont be any worry about the Sox’s pitching; if he doesn’t transition well I think is where the “the Red Sox are open to the idea of trading for a starter during Spring Training or once the season begins” gets applied.
Well maybe because those sites for the most part are only predicting both those guys to only pitch in the area of about 60 innings or so. And Zips is really the only site that’s projecting them to start more games then they relieve in. Most of the other sites aren’t projecting them to start a whole lot of games.
Also having seen Aceves when he was with the Yankees and even last year with the Sox he’s much more suited for relief and long relief than starting. He generally tends to start to run into trouble with opposing teams after about the 4th or 5th inning of work. If your expecting to get 5 or more good innings from him on a regular basis you will be disappointed.
That’s definitely true about Doubront, but while none of them project a lot of innings for Padilla, all of the ones they use at FanGraphs (Marcel, ZiPS, and Steamer) project him to start more than relieve. And with Doubront, he had success at every level in the past, but suffered from nagging injuries all year last year, so if he’s healthy this year he should be able to find his past success and could be a decent fifth starter.
And I agree about Aceves, he looked really good last year, and he is projected to do relatively well next year, but he way out performed his peripheral stats last year (particularly when he was starting), so I’m not particularly hopeful about him as a starter next year and I think he should stay in the bullpen.
About Padilla’s start projections.
Steamer projects 4 starts
Marcel projects 10 starts
Zips projects 13 starts
And when you consider the innings each of those are projecting for Padilla it’s not a lot of production for a starter not even a 5th starter. And those are projections. And as I’m sure you realize from your previous comment Padilla doesn’t have a very good history staying injury free. So even those projects are probably very, very optimistic. Just my opinion.
Right, but my point was that none of them are projecting him to be a reliever, and they all project him to be a valuable 5th starter for whatever amount they do project him to pitch.
My friend, I’m going to go out on a limb a project that Padilla doesn’t even make the opening day roster for the Sox.
Most would have said that about Colon last year and a lot about Garcia as well.
I do agree that Padilla has no chance to make the roster unless it is as a starter. They have many others who would probably be better in the relief, even swing man role.
While you’re looking into your crystal ball would you mind telling us all who does?
Well maybe because those sites for the most part are only predicting both those guys to only pitch in the area of about 60 innings or so. And Zips is really the only site that’s projecting them to start more games then they relieve in. Most of the other sites aren’t projecting them to start a whole lot of games.
Also having seen Aceves when he was with the Yankees and even last year with the Sox he’s much more suited for relief and long relief than starting. He generally tends to start to run into trouble with opposing teams after about the 4th or 5th inning of work. If your expecting to get 5 or more good innings from him on a regular basis you will be disappointed.
It’s cool, we’re comfy with the Yankee’s rotation as well… So the season starts being comfy with each other. Good place to start.
This is baseball, we know crazy stuff happens. I remember Red Sox fans being comfortable with our pitching last year and there were a few who thought their rotation was one of the best in the AL. Turned out the opposite last year.
Sure it has question marks but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Beckett and Buchholz do well. Then agian, I woudln’t be surprised to see either of the 2 be inconsistent.
The first sentence pretty much is the best analysis of the whole situation.
Am I perfectly happy with the rotation? Of course not. However it’s far from the problem that people have been trying to make it out to be.
Aceves clearly deserves the fifth spot but I think he’s probably seen as too useful in the bullpen, especially with Bard probably going to need some long relief out of the gate. If I had to blindly pick I’d say Padilla. He’s been successful in the majors as recently as 2009. Doubront has given me little to be optimistic about. And as for the rest of the field, well, I’m not sure I can say much that falls within the comment guidelines 😛
Doubront had success at every level until last year (when he was fighting injuries and inconsistency, and was badly out of shape). If he is in shape (which he is said to be), and if that helps him find the consistency he had in the past, then I think he may be the best option for the 5th spot.
Given Padilla’s abysmal performance against the Pirates today I think I’m willing to hop on that train >_>
I actually thought he looked good for the first inning+, but then it looked like he lost it and just started grooving 89 mph fastballs down the heart of the plate.
Ah, I thought I was seeing his whole outing. Didn’t realize he had already thrown a good inning (the Celtics embarrassing the Trailblazers was distracting me. This is my excuse)
Nope, he had a 1-2-3 4th inning before it fell apart on him in the 5th.
Nope, he had a 1-2-3 4th inning before it fell apart on him in the 5th.
Ah, I thought I was seeing his whole outing. Didn’t realize he had already thrown a good inning (the Celtics embarrassing the Trailblazers was distracting me. This is my excuse)
I actually thought he looked good for the first inning+, but then it looked like he lost it and just started grooving 89 mph fastballs down the heart of the plate.
i think it’s pretty clear that bard will get the shot at the 4th spot (unless he screws up big time in spring training). so it’s really only the last spot that’s up for grabs.
Why is it even a “maybe” as to whether Bard will make the rotation? Wasn’t that the whole idea of making him a starter this year, rather than letting him to try take over the closers role? Makes no sense. If he wasn’t assured of a spot then I think they would just have kept him in the bullpen. This has to just be posturing to keep the other guys competing hard. There is no way he doesn’t secure a rotation spot.
Hill is going to start season on DL when he fully recover from the tommy john surgery..
What a terrible back end of the rotation…I love it.