Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. discussed the upcoming season with Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, addressing stars such as Cole Hamels, Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence along the way. Here are the details on the five-time defending NL East Champions:
- The Phillies are optimistic that John Mayberry Jr. can add offense in left field. “We believe in the things he can do,” Amaro said. “Laynce Nix is a good complement to him out there in left field. Hopefully we can get the production we need out of those guys.”
- Amaro said he feels “awful” for Ryan Madson personally, but expressed confidence that the longtime Phillies reliever will come back. Madson will miss the 2012 season to recover from Tommy John surgery.
- Cole Hamels is on track to hit free agency after the season, but the GM hinted that an extension remains possible, saying the club can afford to have three $20MM pitchers in the rotation. “I know we can,” Amaro said.
- It’s possible though not necessarily probably that the Phillies will sign Hamels, Pence and Victorino long-term.
I think Victorino will be the odd man out. Mayberry can play CF and Gillies might be ready next season.
I’d doubt it. Not saying it can’t happen but Gillies missed 2 seasons of crucial development time. I don’t think it’s realistic to say he’d be ready any sooner than 2 years.
Brown is the more likely answer.
Gotta agree with Phillies_Aces on Gillies. I don’t think there’s any way he is on the big team in 2013. But who knows, if he has a monster year it could happen. Either way I wouldn’t be surprised to see Victorino walk. If they’re high on Gillies or Mayberry has a good season, CF can be much cheaper to fill with a stopgap for a season or two or Mayberry (remember that guy Dom Brown? Maybe he can still play left).
Take your pick between the 3, but 2 of them will be gone.
incorrect.
I believe Pence still has one more year of arbitration, so maybe two of them will be gone in two seasons, but at least one of Vic or Hamels will be back in 2013.
Pence has two more abr. years
It will be pence and Hamels in Philly. Unless Shane takes an offer like Jimmy, he’s gonna be gone. Hamels 6/144 and pence 6/90 starting next year) would be my guess.
With the Phillies’ bankroll? Doubtful.
I would not extend Victorino. His main value to the club has been that he’s been a relatively good bargain. No sense in paying for his decline years. I will be more than fine with Hamels and Pence long term. I’d also pick up Chooch’s option year at some point this year as a sign of good faith. Hopefully he can come back at a team friendly deal too, but I also wouldn’t over pay him with Valle waiting in the wings.
I’m assuming this deal gets done sometime in the next week or so. All indications have been that the only hold up is years and now there’s a market price set at 5 years, if there wasn’t already.
Matt Cain is not a comparable to Hamels. Cliff Lee is more a comparable and Lee is almost 5 years older than Cole. Lee Got a 5 year deal. If you go off age and everything Hamels is probably looking at 7/$168M
Cain is very comparable to Hamels.
I do not see it. One key thing is Cain is a RHP Hamels is a lefty. Thus Hamels already attains greater value. In equal seasons(though Cain has about 200 more innings) Hamels has surpassed Cain in K. Thus his K/9 is greater. Hamels is almost a full walk better in his BB/9 as well. And while W-L are not the best indicator of a pitcher the disparity there is fairly noticable. Hamels also has a WS and NCLS MVP in his back pocket too. Cain has also significantly outpitched his xFIP numbers Hamels not so much.
If you go off numbers Jair Jurrjens and Matt Cain are more equivalent. Their BB/9 rate is about equal, Jurrjens is ever so slightly better. Cain has Jurrjens beat in K/9. Their HR/9 is about equal too(Jurrjens has a higher GB% and thus a higher HR/FB). Their xFIP Jurrjens:4.22 Cain 4.26. FIP Jurrjens 3.88, Cain 3.69. Now what will hurt Jurrjens is durability questions but still numbers do tell a decent story and they do say that Jurrjens and Cain are fairly similar.
Cole Hamels is on track to hit free agency after the season, but the GM hinted that an extension remains possible, saying the club can afford to have three $20MM pitchers in the rotation. “I know we can,” Amaro said.
There’s no doubt they can afford it. One of the owners is a “Billionaire”! However what will be the rate of return on the investment or even will the owners get their money back is the bigger question!
PS Mayberry,Jr. stinks and so does Nix for that matter!
Can the Phillies afford Hamels? I’m sure Amaro knows better then any of us. But if you look at their 2013 payroll for Luxury Tax purposes. Between Halladay, Lee, Papelbon, Rollins, Utley and Howard. Those 6 players come to about $105MM not including any incentives built into their contracts. Now let’s assume they intend to sign Hamels, Pence and Victorino long term that’s minimally another $50MM combined per. So for 9 players they are at about $155MM. Not including the balance of the 25 man roster plus 15 more players to round out the 40 man roster plus incentives and benefits that are included in the Luxury Tax calculation. There is no chance of the Phillies staying under the Luxury Tax Threshold in 2013 if they sign all 3 (Hamels, Pence and Victorino) long term.
True, which is why Vic is probably gone.
Two of the three they can do.
On Matt Cain’s extension and its relation to Cole Hamels, I think that at this point, it may well be a foregone conclusion (although Ruben Amaro won’t say it) that Hamels is headed into free agency.
I don’t get Joey Votto’s extension at all, however.
I have been banging the drum to not resign Victorino. I love Shane as a player but this team cannot sign another position player that is 31 years old. IMO they should go and get a Bourne type player and let Shane walk, unless Shane takes a big discount. The Phillies will not let Hamels walk. Dollars is not the issue in regard to the contract only the length. Eventually the phillies will come up to 5 years and with an 6th option. He is way to important to let walk.