The Phillies' trades in the past week are signs that the club is getting ready to send off even more pieces, opines Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (video link). Philly hasn't quite put Cole Hamels out on the trade market yet, but as they sit far behind the first-place Nationals, it seems inevitable. Morosi says that moves involving Hamels and Shane Victorino look likelier by the day. More on the Phillies..
- The Phillies might be saying publicly that they're not prepared to sell, but that doesn't appear to truly be the case, writes Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. One rival executive who talked to a high-ranking Phillies official told Knobler, "They told me, 'If we lose any more games, we could be selling soon.'"
- Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel agreed with a reporter’s observation that the team's season riding on these next three weeks, writes Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. Meanwhile, Victorino argued that the returns of Roy Halladay and Ryan Howard will make a major impact on the club and will be bigger than any two acquisitions the Phillies could possibly make.
- Victorino also told reporters, including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com (via Twitter) that he doesn't think his days in Philly are numbered and it's up to the team to show the front office that they can win as-is.
As a Phillies fan, I’m almost happy that they’re losing. I’m excited that they are going to get good young players that they need this year. A down year isn’t the end of the world, they will be back next year.
The market for Victorino? I dont know what it will possibly look like. But there are three teams — St. Louis, Texas and Detroit — who would match up well for Hamels.
If the Phillies find themselves a franchise 3B and hopefully some more good pieces, and end up picking top-10 in the draft, then they just turned a bad year into productive one.
I would want Castellanos/Turner + from Detroit
Olt/Perez or Martin + from Texas
Cox/Tavarez/Wong or Martinez from St. Louis
D’Arnaud/Gose or Gose/Snydergaar OR D’Arnaud/Marisnick
Lee/Reed/Webster (with a signing Window).
(yes I know those are high asking prices… however I think two top prospects is fair for a guy who could carry you to the World Series like Cliff Lee did for Texas in 2010. Pair him with Justin Verlander and nobody’s going to touch you)
I think the Dodgers, Reds, Royals (maybe), Pirates, Indians, Nationals, and Marlins could all be suitors for Victorino.
I think the Reds would be the best fits for Victorino and I’d probably ask for:
JC Sulbaran or DiDi Gregorius and JJ Hoover. Maybe a guy like Soto to have as depth if Howard gets hurt again.
Ehhhhhh, I like your thinking, but I don’t think it’s realistic partially because it’s high for a rental and the rules of the CBA where there’s no compensation for FA’s.
I could see Olt and/or Martin in a deal, but not much more.
Castellanos could probably be had because of Miggy moving to third. But forget about getting both him AND Turner.
I don’t see the Jays parting with D’arnaud for anything. Nor would the Phillies have anywhere to play him.
A combination of 2 of Cox/Wong/Taveras I think would be the most likely to happen of your proposals.
All-in-all I would be perfectly happy to just get Olt or Castellanos and a bag of baseballs for Hamels.
I’d rather sign him long term. I’d want at least two legit prospects and two lottery tickets (or two guys who would project to be relievers/back end of the rotation pitchers… throw ins that have some type of upside beyond throw ins) to deal Cole. We still have the leverage that we can either A) sign him or B) get draft pick compensation for him if he leaves us.
Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Worley/May, Kendrick, Cloyd, whomever looks better than:
I’d love Olt or Castellanos in our line up but I wouldn’t want JUST them back. (thinking it over, Castellanos might be the better fit as he could come up alongside Biddle, May, and Valle and be part of the next core).
Victorino I’m fine parting ways with, Pence I’m fine with. I think long term Hamels is potentially as valueable of a piece as Olt/Castellanos/whomever would be, considering the lack of certainty surrounding our pitching staff going forward.
I don’t think we have leverage to sign him. If it hasn’t happened yet, i don’t think it will. Plus, it’s just not worth it financially. Especially with the good pitching in their farm system.
Also, we don’t the team who signs him’s first round pick under the new CBA. I think we get a sandwich pick, though.
Halladay/Lee/Worley/Edwin Jackson, Colby Lewis, Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook, Anibal Sanchez, Guthrie/Kendrick, Pettibone, etc. still looks pretty damn good to me.
I thought we got the pick in front of the signing team and a supplemental pick. I’m probably wrong… but whatever.
The only real stumbling block has been years with Cole. The Phillies wanting to do 4 and Cole wanting 6-7. There’s mutual interest and Cole’s mentioned recently how much it meant to him that the Phillies kept scouting him after his career threatening injury.
I don’t think there’s that much good pitching in the farm system to be honest with you. Biddle/May are middle of the rotation starters (unless Biddle’s fastball’s ticked up and I’m unaware), Pettibone is a Mid-to-back end guy and everybody else is a #4/5 type. Those guys can replace Halladay and Kendrick in 2014.
Long term, we’d only be committed to Lee, Hamels, Howard, Papelbon, and Jimmy Rollins in terms of guys making $12 + million. It’s 2013 that’s the only year where they’d be stretched out payroll wise. Sign Cole to a 6 year deal and he’s a free agent around 35. We’d be paying $20-$25 million for the prime of an ace left hander.
I’m all for selling, I just would have to be blown away to trade Cole Hamels, who for the next 6 years would be the ace of the staff as the guard changes.
I wouldn’t be opposed to trading him and if Ruben came away with Castellanos or Olt, I’d have a very hard time complaining, but I think Ruben’s thinking the same as I am.
I guess where we differ is that you find it feasible to sign Hamels and I do not.
You’re out of your mind if you think any team is gonna give up any top prospects for what is basically a rental of Hamels.
The prospect market has all changed with the new CBA, since the teams won’t get any first round pick for Hamels if they get him.
I think two mid level prospects is fair value.
And no, I don’t want Phillies to try to re-sign Hamels.
He’s a player who it will take 20+ million to get, and Phillies aren’t gonna be contenders in the next 2-3 years, they need to completely rebuild.
So better ship off Hamels to a contending team, and spend those payroll resources on younger guys, and prepare to sign upcoming prospects to multi year deals.
Phillies will easily get a top prospect.
What team are you thinking of? Which team will give up a top prospect for Hamels? And what top prospect would that be?
“They’re not going to be contenders.”
Says who? This isn’t 1997, they can buy players. They won’t be favorites is what you mean. Smart free agent decisions on smaller, role player types would be key. Look at the Mets this year. Mediocre team on paper, they have a Wild Card spot or are really close to one.
Either way, Cole Hamels is the type of player you acquire. He’s 28 years old. If we’re not contenders for 2-3 years as you say, he’d be 31, right in his prime. There’s no guarantee guys like Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, etc will become free agents, so it’s probably best to hold onto your Ace at this point.
“2 mid level prospects”
Then I take draft pick compensation at that point. No reason to give away a difference maker like Cole Hamels for two B prospects. At least one A and one B.
Why would the Royals do that? They already have a crowded outfield between the players on the roster & the prospects knocking on the door
The Phillies always mess up big time in their draft picks. I’m from Pa. I’ll always stay with the Philies, but I’m just saying that they’ll get squat.
Phillies have actually drafted well recently
What? Their only #1 pick to not make the majors from 2001-2008 and who isn’t knocking on the door is Anthony Hewitt.
2008 and 2011 were great drafts by the organization.
Frank- you couldn’t be more on the spot. People forget that there will still be a team after this year. I’m not going to miss Victorino and his streaks one bit. Let him go play for a middle-place team in the AL. Trade Hamels for a top 3B prospect on the verge of breaking the bigs.
“One rival executive who talked to a high-ranking Phillies official told Knobler, “They told me, ‘If we lose any more games, we could be selling soon.'”
So it’s time now?
This team is not going to the playoffs. Its time to start planning for 2013.
they wont sell or act like they are selling till the last minute after ryho and halladay comeback at the deadline. I won’t believe them till then.
If they lose the Mets/Braves serieses it could be a lot sooner. If we lose 4/5 of these games, for all intents and purposes, the seasons over. I expect we’ll be seeing reports of Ed Wade, Pat Gillick, and some of the Phillies top scouts out scouting the minor leagues.
Still think it’s unlikely they trade Cole. Nobody’s going to meet the asking price (if they do, I’ll pack his bags for him). He’s priced not to sell.
Victorino’s as good as gone.
Do not underestimate Toronto or Texas they may go all in Coke and tryto get extension too boot. Have the Phils considered trading Halladay
Less prospects-than they have to pay Halladays contract off and then Phils sign Hamels
Why is no one talking about trading Pence? He has a year and a half till free agency. Unless Ruin Tomorrow Jr is going to sign him long term he better trade him now.
I’d take bets he and Cliff Lee are available in addition to Hamels/Victorino.
Phillies will pay a vast majority of Lee’s contract if they trade him
why trade Lee he has 5 more years on his contract that would be plain silly
aging pitcher+5 years your lucky to get 1 good prospect rather than anything else.The phils would haveto tpayy the contract
I did not say they would or should
I don’t think they’d have to pay the Majority of it. At least 1/3 of it. If they got it down to 3 years $60 million I think it’d be worthwhile for someone to acquire him.
His #’s this year aren’t all his fault. I think he had a 3.01 FIP coming into his start today.