Boston’s Andrew Miller has been the most talked-about left-handed relief option on the trade market, and with good reason. The impending free agent has pitched to a 2.34 ERA with dazzling secondary stats: 14.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 52.5 percent ground-ball rate. ERA estimators such as FIP (1.69), xFIP (1.76) and SIERA (1.42) feel that Miller has been even better than that 2.34 mark, and he’s dominated both lefties (.420 OPS) and righties (.537 OPS) this season.
Here’s the latest …
- The Tigers are “making a big push” on Miller, tweets ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick.
- There is some internal resistance to moving Miller, tweets Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com. If that is the case, Edes wonders whether the club would instead consider dealing closer Koji Uehara.
- Another club that is a possible landing spot at this point is the Pirates, tweets McAdam.
- The Orioles are also in on Miller, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
- Boston expects to deal Miller by this afternoon, tweets Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com. Offers are rising with strong interest from many clubs, he adds.
- The Tigers have strong interest in acquiring Miller to bolster their bullpen for a potential postseason matchup with the A’s or Angels, tweets Bruce Levine of WSCR-AM/670 The Score.
- The Red Sox are being “swarmed” with offers for Miller, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Needless to say, the club has kept its asking price high in light of the demand. A rival executive tells Nightengale that Miller is holding up the rest of the market.
Earlier Updates
- Jon Lester helped the Red Sox out last week by publicly stating that he’d be willing to re-sign with Boston if traded, and it appears that Boston thinks the same scenario could play out with lefty reliever Andrew Miller. Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald spoke to a source (Twitter link) who told him that the Sox “believe they have built up enough good will that [Miller would] consider coming back as free agent.”
- Miller has drawn interest from the Braves, Royals, Dodgers and Pirates, but the asking price is said to be very high. The Sox are reportedly seeking a rival team’s top prospect and a lesser prospect in order to move their dominant setup man. Earning just $1.9MM in 2014, Miller is owed only $633K through season’s end.
Not to be too cynical about this, but if Miller and Lester are going to be sent for top prospects (a number one and a lesser one for a setup man?) and they are expected to return to the Red Sox after the season, teams would be foolish to enable the Red Sox this way. Yo yo rentals.
I’ve kind of thought the same thing. It may end up not mattering, but I wonder if this actually hurts the trade value of either one.
With Miller, this might be less true, but at least one of the prime trade partners in St. Louis usually likes to try to lock up rentals, even if it’s after the season (like they did with Matt Holliday, and a lot of other big acquisitions in the 2000s).
I’ve kind of thought the same thing. It may end up not mattering, but I wonder if this actually hurts the trade value of either one.
With Miller, this might be less true, but at least one of the prime trade partners in St. Louis usually likes to try to lock up rentals, even if it’s after the season (like they did with Matt Holliday, and a lot of other big acquisitions in the 2000s).
Why would that matter? Teams are trying to get Miller to the playoffs and increase their chance to win the World Series. Who he plays for in 2015 really doesn’t matter. If he returns to the Red Sox, so what? If a team trades for Miller and he helps them win a championship in 2014, they won’t haul the flag down because Miller went back to Boston.
This is no more “enabling the Red Sox” than trading for David Price and sending several top prospects in return would be “enabling the Rays.” After all, everyone could just refuse to trade with the Rays, and then the Rays would have to non-tender Price in the off-season, making him a free agent, because they can’t afford to pay him.
I’d say a reliever is more likely by token of smaller contracts, though Miller’s performance tends to prevent that from being all too likely.
The only cases of players going back to the teams that traded them midseason are relievers and platoon/bench pieces. Always on one year deals. Neither Lester nor Miller fit that bill as Miller is probably in line for the 3/15 type deal Joe Smith or Boone Logan got. The Sox will already have a fairly pricey bullpen before Miller comes into the equation.
And, somehow, Cliff Lee
Lee was traded that midseason from Seattle to Texas, though his circumstance is both odd and one of a kind.
Uehara will be given the QO.. so you are absolutely correct.
I doubt they do. The Sox will offer a competitive 2 year deal before they do that. I’m not sure why they’d want to pay him 15 million for one year if they don’t have to.
i agree, but I wonder if they will offer him a QO. As terrific as he is, that’s an enormous amount of money for a closer, especially for a team that has so many young and touted arms.
My guess would be that they figure something out before the offer is made. We have all of October to talk to Koji’s agents since we won’t be playing baseball.
My guess would be that they figure something out before the offer is made. We have all of October to talk to Koji’s agents since we won’t be playing baseball.
Uehara will get the QO? Really? I get that he’s pitched great, but he’ll be 40 next season and he’s never made more than $5MM in a season.
If 2015 contention is the plan they need a dominant lefty bullpen piece and Miller is one of the most dominant relievers period in the game right now. Unless you get an organization top ten or top 5 from Detroit the trade isn’t worth it they should just keep him!
I really like Miller because he fits my “failed starters make the best relievers” philosophy. He could really help a contender with a shaky pen, but I think his biggest trade value is when packaged with a starter to sweeten the return
“The Sox are reportedly seeking a rival team’s top prospect and a lesser prospect”…good luck with that.
… Translation: They are not looking to trade Miller.
Yet this very post suggests strongly that they want to. Look, everybody knows his trade value becomes zero…or close to that… at 4pm today. There’s a point above zero that the Sox will accept. It’s just dumb not to do so.
I agree that they would move him, but no team is giving up their number one prospect for two months of a bullpen pitcher.
In all honesty, if you think the Red Sox cannot make the playoffs, and you can get a number one prospect and another one, why not?
Says who? Some “expert”? Even if they did say it, it’s the starting point of negotiation.
Remember, Miller is a former top prospect that finally came into his own late last season and this one. Just before his walk time.
My guess is he gets traded for another potential relief pitcher. Bullpens turn over every year.
“My guess is he gets traded for another potential relief pitcher. Bullpens turn over every year.”
I agree. My point was that no one was giving up their number one prospect.
Well that is common sense. It is also common sense to start your asking price high, so you can settle where you want to be. You would be a horrible GM if you went into trade talks being realistic with your trade offer…
If that’s the case the Brewers will trade Zack Duke who is a clone of Andrew Miller.
Neither Lester or Miller will be back next season. It’s all lip service to try and keep the fans from buying Boston Bruins season tickets instead.
That’s what I’m saying. Players are traded because they couldn’t come to an extension agreement with their team. It’s ridiculous to think the Red Sox are suddenly going to pay Jon Lester market value when their first offer was so ludicrously low.
Maybe, maybe not.
They trade Lester, get a power hitting bat for 2015, and sign Lester in the off-season. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least.
That is not the only reason players are traded. We do not know what talks are had behind closed doors. Maybe they already had talks where Lester told them to trade him so they can get something out of him in a season that is shot, and that he will come back next season?
Now, for how many times a player has been traded only to re-sign with the same team that coming offseason, not sure that happens very often!
I asked that question on another article board recently, and only one person could come up with one traded player who had resigned with their team that offseason. It’s not going to happen.
I agree that chances are slim. It is a great question though. Would be hard to research. Even if we found something, I would think it was a smaller name (not someone with the status like Lester). I just have a feeling Lester would still like to be back in Boston next year.
I think he’d like to, but I don’t think the Red Sox want to pay him, or they would have by now. I think the fans who think he’ll resign are giving their FO too much credit. That FO doesn’t want to spend. It’s pretty sad, actually, considering their market size and lack of big contracts on their books.
Someone explain to me how Lester and Miller telling everyone that they are cool with being traded, because they’ll just sign back with the Red Sox in the offseason… Helps the Red Sox??? Maybe it helps Red Sox fans ego.
In Miller’s case, he didn’t actually say anything of that sort.
We’ll be lucky to get one of them (Lester or Miller ) back if at all.
Cut & paste this prediction: Lester will be either a Yankee or Mariner next season. Miller will sign with Baltimore, Atlanta or San Francisco.
This “willing to re-sign with Boston” (at least in Lester’s case) is just as much a benefit to the player’s free-agent leverage as it keeps a rich team as a potential suitor.
Do they think they can resign everyone?
They won’t resign Miller, but Lester, I think they do. Too many personal ties there.
They have the money. They can if they want to. The Yankees can’t sign everybody…
Given that all we got for Lester (+Gomes) was Cespedes, what are we being “swarmed” by for Miller? 26-year old A-ball pitchers? Backup infielders? Cash considerations?
You also got a first round pick.
Isn’t compensation round B after the second round?
I thought it was first round, thought I read that somewhere. I could (and probably am) be wrong.
I believe round A is after the first round, and round B is after the second. I could be mistaken.
Gotcha.
You’re correct.
“All they got?” All they got was a guy who will hit 30 home runs next year playing 81 games in Fenway, on a team that desperately needs power hitters. They wanted a sure thing, and that’s what they got. Better Cespedes, from Boston’s point of view, than some 22-year-old in Double-A who might be good in two or three years. The Red Sox already know Cespedes can play.
All they got was one year of a middle-of-the-pack outfielder (who hit under .200 this month!)
Cespedes reputation seems greater than his production. Since his rookie year he is sub .800 ops guy who hits home runs and not much else. Still not a bad deal, considering Lester is a rental. I like the Lackey desk though, Kelly isn’t much but I think Craig will do well in Boston.
All they got was the OF who has the tenth highest ISO among OF with 400 PA and is top 25 in WRC+ and is 28. I mean come on man he is not middle of the pack OF he is a middle of the lineup type hitter with good defensive value and fills the position the team needed the most. I understand wanting prospects but Cespedes isn’t anything to be upset about.
How does it help the Red Sox by making it clear to potential trade partners that they don’t have much chance of resigning their rental player after the season? If anything, I think it hurts their prospective return.
Makes no difference. You rent a player to win immediately. You worry about next year when the season’s over.
Disagree. A rental player is worth more to a team if they think they might be able to sign him after the season.
I would not be happy if my team’s GM didn’t think about next year.
Because player loyalty ends with a trade. Miller and Lester aren’t secretly leaving just for prospects only to return in the offseason. You don’t sign rental players as long term acquisitions.
bzzzzz. Fascinating endgame on this. he’s very good, but the team’s asking price is enormous.
Of course the Red Sox are getting swarmed on Miller, he’s the only player they haven’t already traded.
It is obvious that Boston are putting their team together for 2015. Cespedes in left, Victorino in center and Craig in right. They are set at DH with Ortiz, 2nd with Pedroia, third with Bogaearts, or at short and Middlebrooks at third. To trade Miller, they would try to get either a first baseman, 3rd baseman, catcher or pitching, which narrows the options dramatically with detroit. They aren’t trading Castellanos or Cabrera. lol.
I think that JBJ is in center he has been a pretty good hitter for almost two months and his defensive in CF is top 5 defensive value in the game! Craig can rotate around LF/RF/1B unless Nap is traded which wouldn’t surprise me at all.
They don’t need a cathcher Vazques is great defensivily and not terrible with the bat and Swihart is number 1 catching prospect in the game. A young corner infield prospect would work though.
Anyone else have any 30 year Olds who hit .250 and are under contract till 2015?!…ship em up to Boston!
Considering what the Sox have been getting in return for their players, every contender should be hitting Boston up right now.
If only the Tigers still had Fernando Rodney….deal would have been done already.