The Red Sox are willing to move southpaw reliever Andrew Miller in a trade, according to multiple reports. Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (via Twitter) says that Boston is shopping the lefty, adding that the Pirates have been scouting the club for weeks and have interest in Miller. Likewise, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution hears (Twitter link) that Miller is available and reiterates that the Braves are still on him, with Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reporting that Miller is Atlanta’s “prime bullpen target.”
Miller, 29, could well be the most impactful late-inning lefty available, as I noted yesterday in a breakdown of the left-handed relief market. He owns stellar peripherals (14.5 K/9 vs. 2.8 BB/9, 51.9% groundball rate) to go along with excellent results (2.31 ERA). Unsurprisingly, ERA estimators are also a fan: Miller sports a 1.77 FIP, 1.82 xFIP, and 1.47 SIERA.
This is undoubtedly Miller’s finest season, as he has only once sported an ERA of below three earned per nine (last year) and struggled earlier in his career, when he was use a starter. But his results have steadily improved since he shifted to the pen, and Miller has plenty of value to a contending team that does not want to take on long-term commitments. He is earning just $1.9MM this year and will hit the open market following the end of the season.
Hmmm, all of the astute sports analysts on here who kept imploring Ben to “DFA Miller” seem to have gone silent. Maybe it’s just nap time.
He’s a top twenty reliever this year. Not surprised there is interest.
c’mon Neddy, get ‘r dun.
Miller could fetch a very nice return, as could Koji. Miller is a top reliever and could return Soria and Steet like prospects. Pipe dream would be to package both of them and send them to the Pirates for Josh Bell and a lower level prospect, or a Kingham and Ramirez package
Neal Huntington isn’t giving up Josh Bell for any reliever.
“Pipe dream would be to package both of them and send them to the Pirates for Josh Bell ” I know reading can be hard.
You don’t trade top 10 prospects for a rental reliever. I guess Ramirez would work because the outfield is set for a while, but I’m guessing Bell will move to 1st soon. I’d rather not deal pitchers.
Soria alone got 2 top 10 orginizational prospects, Street got the same type of return by himself. The pirates could really use at least one of them because their bullpen is shaky after Melancon and Watson. If they went for both arms it would take a package like that, if they only got one I would expect a Ramirez/Kingham return…
Soria and Street got 2 top 10 organizational prospects out of 2 bottom 5 farm systems. Pit’s farm is easily top 3. Therefore the players aren’t always interchangeable.
Yeah I highly doubt that happens. The best prospect Huntington has ever given up was Dilson Herrera or maybe Robbie Grossman, neither of whom were in the top 100. So I see no way that Bell or Kingham leave town for a rental reliever or two, maybe Harold Ramirez, but he would be the headliner. Anything more, and I’d expect Huntington to simply say no
If you look at the going rate for top RP it’s basically Kingham or ramirez for one of the relievers, both RP would cost that package or Bell+ a flier… I didnt say it was likely, just what it would take if the Pirates tried striking a deal for both RP, hence the “pipe dream” comment
How the hell do we know exactly what it takes? The Boston FO may evaluate Pittsburgh’s prospects much differently than you. In fact, I’m not even sure if you know anything about the Pirates’ prospects. For instance, Nick Kingham is currently a top 50 prospect. Harold Ramirez might not even be a top 200. So are they really interchangeable in a deal for a single rental reliever? Regardless, history tells us that Huntington will not part with good talent for the sake of two months of one good reliever.
I like how you call Nick Kingham a “lower level prospect” because he is a top 80 prospect in all of baseball… I know you called it a pipe dream but that trade idea is laughable.
You might of misread that
Oops lol yeah I did. I thought he said Bell AND Kingham. either way it seems unlikely.
Baseball America actually has Kingham ranked #37 in their mid-season updated rankings. Bell is #35. Not that it matters, just wanted to make sure he gets his proper credit.
As a Red Sox fan, Bell and a sweetener would work.
As a Red Sox fan, Bell and a sweetener would work.
Bring him back to Detroit!
Would make sense. But why not just call up Robbie Ray and make him a temp Reliever? Also Blain Hardy is doing well and their is a chance that Coke can put it together for the last 2 months.
They can keep their prospects that way.
He’s pretty lights out. K’s errrrrybody. Hope they get a lot for him
Go get em frank
Lester and Miller for Joc Pederson and a B prospect.
It would take 2 of peterson, urias, or seager + another prospect just to land Lester, let alone Miller too.
I wish this was true. But it is not. Seager or Pederson plus a lower level guy is a good return for Lester.
Have you been paying attention to how much people are drastically overpaying for starting pitching? No way Boston deals Lester away for a package smaller or equivalent to what Jake Peavy brought. Maybe 1 of those 3 and a few other prospects from the dodgers top 20. But to think 1 top 5 and a B level guy land Lester, you must be a Colorado resident hitting the peace pipe too much if you catch my drift. LOL! But seriously, this market for SP is insane right now thanks to the precedent set by the Shark deal and the Peavy deal. Big Ben the Cher Bear is no dummy…he knows that he doesnt NEED to trade Jon, so if he isnt overwhelmed, then they keep him to either allow him to turn down a qualifying over to gain a comp pick or maintain exclusive rights after the season to negotiate an extension.
Seager and Pederson are both worth much much more than what they got for Peavy. Yes teams are overpaying and that is why I think Lester can get a top 20 prospect in MLB for him plus something else. If you think a team is going to give up two blue chip, among the best in the league prospects for Lester then I wish you were the GM. And nobody needs to trade anybody. But hanging onto him gets them nothing but a comp pick. If you think one of the dodgers top three prospects are equal to a comp pick then there isn’t anything else I can do for you. Also Lester is not any more likely to sign during the exclusive period than he is right now. Obviously the sox don’t want to make him a legit offer. I really can’t understand how you value the peavy return and one of Seager/Pederson as equal or less. Where are you getting that crazy logic? Peace pipe?
I think that you guys are ignoring the market trends and overvaluing the dodgers top prospects slightly. Dont get me wrong, I feel that the ask for Lester is going to be way too high, which is why I have been yelling from the mountain tops that acquiring Price should be my teams top priority, not Lester. Im not a dodger fan or a sox fan, Im just informing you that the Red Sox ask will be for more than just one of those players. Also, if a hungry organization wants to make the playoffs and feels he is there guy, they will get more. Its America people, you can ask any price if people are willing to pay it.
by equating the Peavy haul as lessor or equal to the Dodgers top three you have essentially ruined any value your opinion may have been worth. Sox can ask, and man it would be great if it happened but if it did it would be insane and Dodger fans would lose their minds.
Two of them for two+ months of Lester? In your dreams.
I think the hope from the Dodgers is that it’s 2+ months AND a shot at a World Series win. That’s a very different context. I’m not saying it’s worth gutting the system but the Dodgers have shown in the past that they are not against trading their farm for seasoned vets. I know that fans of every team fall in love with their top farm guys before they ever reach the big leagues (Red Sox fans are the same in that regard) but if the Dodgers are being run like a business and they see an opportunity to win THIS YEAR then they might do it. Don’t be surprised.
Of course the trade is predicated on improving the Dodgers chances of winning the world series. If it wasn’t there is no way they’d even consider trading Pederson for a 2-3 month rental. That’s a given. The BoSox have a chance of adding a highly regarded outfielder prospect (a need) AND resigning Lester for next year and beyond. That’s a sizable return since Lester isn’t taking them anywhere this year. If they can do better than that, more power to them. Kershaw/Grienke/Ryu for a post season rotation ain’t chopped liver.
I love the Dodgers top 3 but you can never have enough in case of injury. Assume that Becket will be in the bullpen for the playoffs but having another top of the rotation guy makes them the favorites to win the world series. Put it this way: would you rather have Lester go to the Giants or to the Dodgers? For years the Yankees and Red Sox have been trying to sign or trade for the same players but I see a shift this year to the west coast. Put it in that perspective and then tell me that the Dodgers would not consider trading more than just one top guy from their farm.
The Giants just blew their wad on Peavy. They don’t have a Pederson to offer. I can see the Dodgers giving more than Pederson, but not Seager and probably not Urias. That is simply too much. They could probably get Price for this year and next for that haul.
According to the Giants’ fans on here the haul for Peavy didn’t include their top minor leaguers (though I disagree). Just saying.
Sal, I completely agree with what you said about Giants fans. I went semi scouting the internet yesterday to see how highly Escobar was, because I knew Hembree was supposed to be one of the best closing prospects I think last year. And according to Keith Law’s top 10 Giants prospects at the beginning of the year I know he was top 5 and if my memory serves me right he was number 3. And I know looking MLB’s top prospects each player moved into the top 20 of the redsox system. Escobar at 7 and Hembree at 17, I think.
So now my thoughts on a Lester Dodger’s scenario using just the Peavy trade as a comp. I could see Pederson and ONE OF EITHER Urias and Seager plus a B prospect. Which I consider to be a bottom 20 prospect in the dodgers system or maybe a high high risk high reward player.
You should see the thread from yesterday’s Peavy announcement. You cannot convince the Giants fans that they gave anything away, which is just silly. Outside of SF, most writers feel like the trend is in favor of the sellers, not the buyers. Whatever. I’d like to see Lester signed and not traded but if he is traded he’s going to command some serious mlb-ready talent.
Just read some of those comments. And it was only a couple of guys trashing on them. And I also a lady try to tell me that when Beckett signed his extension with Boston that his performance at the time and prior to made no sense. This was on one of the Lester threads. See was discussing the Red Sox dodgers trade in 2012 and said the Beckett contract was horrible. And I took the stand and said it was not horrible at the time. All I was doing was playing devil’s advocate with her.
Shields had one more year of control and netted Myers and Odrozzi, Lester is a rental so I doubt he will get more.
I would just be happy if Hurdle actually used his bullpen correctly. That would be a bigger upgrade than any acquisition, imo.
This is a guy I would want if I needed a lefty
Never cared for Andrew Miller. Would be happy to trade him.
The Sox did a great job helping Miller turn his career around. Good for both of the team and Miller.
Miller has expressed an interest in closing. I’d shop him and Koji to the highest bidder. Keep one and trade the other.
It would be a grievous error to deal Seager or Pederson (who is needed since the current OF you have is overpaid and aging). How about a reunion of Hanley and the Bo Sox kind of a salary dump. He could mentor X and be insurance against Brooksy who can’t seem to stay healthy and productive for a long period of time.