In Thursday’s edition of his Insider-only blog, ESPN’s Buster Olney opines that the Reds should give serious thought to trading ace Johnny Cueto this offseason. Cueto has a no-brainer $10MM club option for 2015, making him a highly affordable and elite talent — an appealing alternative to clubs in win-now mode that don’t want to commit long-term dollars to Max Scherzer, Jon Lester or James Shields. The Reds will see Cueto, Mat Latos and Mike Leake hit free agency following the 2015 season, with Aroldis Chapman set to do the same the following year. Those losses, coupled with the rising salary of Joey Votto, give the Reds incentive to create some flexibility and add prospect depth. Olney wonders if the Reds could look to pair Cueto with Brandon Phillips in an effort to free themselves of the $36MM remaining on the second baseman’s deal. Of course, even if a team were to take on Phillips, they’d still likely need to surrender notable prospect value.
Here’s more from the NL Central…
- Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan looks at Jake Arrieta‘s breakout season through a historical lens, noting that he has the sixth-largest season-to-season K-BB% improvement since 1920 (min. 75 IP each season) and the single largest FIP- improvement in that same span. Sullivan looks at how much more effectively Arrieta has repeated his mechanics with the Cubs, and he also points to the fact that Arrieta has doubled the usage of his hard slider/cutter while moving to the third-base side of the rubber. Both David Ross and Ryan Zimmerman noted that Arrieta, who now busts right-handed hitters inside at a much greater rate, often appears to be “throwing behind you” before his ball breaks over the plate. Whether or not Arrieta is a legitimate ace, the trade that sent him and Pedro Strop to Chicago in exchange for Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger looks like quite the feather in the cap of GM Jed Hoyer and president Theo Epstein.
- The Brewers announced that they have agreed to a new minor league contract with catcher Shawn Zarraga and invited him to 2015 Spring Training. Zarraga, 25, was Milwaukee’s 44th-round pick out of high school in 2007 and enjoyed a strong season at Double-A this year before struggling in his first crack at Triple-A. The Aruban backstop hit .330/.440/.419 in 267 plate appearances with Double-A but just .213/.304/.255 in 57 PA at the top minor league level.
- In more Brewers news, GM Doug Melvin isn’t happy about the split between his organization and the team’s Triple-A affiliate in Nashville. Melvin told reporters, including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, that he asked the Sounds to let them know if they were considering re-affiliation three weeks ago. The Brewers heard nothing and then saw the Sounds sign a new player development contract with the A’s, which Melvin feels cost the Brewers a chance to pursue an affiliation with what they considered to be an attractive fallback option. The Sounds, McCalvy writes, weren’t pleased with the losing product the Brewers had put on the field in the two seasons prior to 2014.
I could see the Red Sox going after any of the Reds 3 starters this offseason. I would preferably want Cueto or Latos. And if they got Cueto I hope they would be willing to work out an extension.
Keep hoping. Cueto will be highly in demand by every team. Even if they got him, then an extension could very easily run $150MM.
I can always hope. I prefer Cueto but I realistically I want Latos because he is probably going to be cheaper to extend than Cueto. If you get what I am saying
Cueto is a great pitcher, but that arm is going to break down quite quickly. He has over 220 innings this year.
It’s not like he has thrown 220 for 6 straight seasons and he is entering FA at 32.
I’d rather see Latos go over Cueto, but I totally understand the reasoning behind it. And while I’d love to watch Phillips go, I don’t see him waiving his 10-5 rights.
If they are trading one, then all should go unless they get extensions at cheap. If they aren’t good enough this year with Cueto, then they won’t be good enough next year without him. If you are out of it then trade all your assets that will be gone at end of year.
I can see this line of thinking as well. If they do trade him, I’d trade Latos as well but maybe hang on to Leake. He’s a durable innings eater who keeps the team in the game more often than not. A guy like that probably brings more value to the Reds than he would bring back in prospects.
Votto has been out most of the year, Phillips for a long stretch and others for significant time. Unless you assume a lot of injuries, they’ll be a different team.
The Brewers AAA team was 77-67 this season. It was recent prior years that had poor records. Maybe I’m wrong, but I wonder if there was/is the proverbial waxy buildup between the team and the Sounds.
I meant the 2012-13 seasons, which McCalvy outlined in a far clearer manner than I. Amending the wording now. Thanks.
I don’t get the move at all by the Sounds. Is the A’s AAA squad really that good? They traded away a ton of their big time prospects. Not like they were getting some big time minor league system.
Oh well I’d rather all the hitting prospects go play in Colorado anyway. Clint Coulter should put in quite a show in a couple years.
I really think the Reds have a great opportunity here, but would be a gutsy move. They were way out of it this year, and seems like immediate future could be tough with Pittsburgh and STL, so a win window right now doesn’t make as much sense.
Thing though is that they shouldn’t trade one as many have suggested. They should trade Latos, Leake, and Cueto. If they are trading Cueto then they are out of it, get the prospects back for all their players.
the pitchers market this off-season is thin, so if they’re going to sell they might as well go big. If pretty much everyone looking to trade for a pitcher has to deal with Cinci, that also gives them considerable extra leverage in the negotiations.
The problem with the Reds and Phillips is that they still think he is good. They wanted Gardner for him last offseason, and on that contract there really isn’t a ton of excess value. I could see some team sticking him at 2b, but who wants to commit to $12MM a year for the next 3 years on a 0.666 ops hitter?
Arrieta has been unbelievable this year. I don’t see him going the way of Travis Wood in 2015. The Cubs broadcast had a great point about Wood’s struggles; He’s pitching almost exactly the same as he did in 2014 as far as pitch frequency, etc., but that’s the problem. The league adjusted to him and he’s not adjusting to the adjustments. Arrieta has the stuff to pitch around hitters’ adjustments and seems to have a great approach to the game. Can’t wait to see him for a full season in 2015!
Only concern with Arrieta is what is going to happen to him when expectations hit. His biggest problem in Baltimore is he would have panic attacks on the mound. Going to the Cubs helped him because it didn’t matter, there was no pressure. He wasn’t who the franchise banked their future on, and the Cubs weren’t going to win. I think he is going to be fine going forward, but I would still be somewhat in “wait and see” mode when the Cubs are ready to win again and start putting expectations on Arrieta.
Its a good point. Arrieta also had no control in Baltimore or ability to repeat his delivery. Who knows, seems like switching to the NL really helped him out and the Cubs did a good job with a guy who has an insane amount of talent.
I think the Cubs have def. helped him. But I remember at one point while he was in Baltimore there were talks from outside scouts that he might benefit from therapy. So even if the Cubs have worked out mechanically what was wrong with him, a Cubs fan should maybe still worry about what is going to happen to Arrieta mentally when pressure gets put on him again. Is that Jake going to come back, or has Jake turned a corner on everything that plagued him in Baltimore?
As an O’s fan, I was very happy to hear Arrieta admit in an interview around the time of the all-star break that one of the greatest steps forward he had taken was to listen to what the coaches were telling him to do in Chicago. It was widely known and reported that Arrieta would listen to what coaches were staying and all but ignore what he was told to do on the mound. I have no problem with that deal even if the Cubs have landed themselves a solid starter. Arrieta had exhausted his options in Baltimore and there was no way he was going to turn it around with the O’s. We wish him all the best as long as he’s not facing the O’s.
Completely off the top of my head and most likely outrageously bad but I enjoy this so here I go…
Cueto and Phillips for Luis Severino, Ian Clarkin, Eric Jaigelo, Jake Cave and a choice of David Phelps or Manny Banuelos.
Or
Matt Latos and Phillips for Luis Severino, Robert Refsnyder and Tyler Webb.
Thoughts?
( This is from a Yankees fan point of view so rip me apart if I deserve it)
Please ignore my spelling!
Probably getting there, but honestly the Yankees need to work on retooling, not trading for a rental. Keep in mind that contrary to what the Reds may think Phillips has negative value right now. Yankees have Prado that can play 2nd next year, they better off signing headley and company for an extension than taking on the $36MM for Phillips.
The problem is that the Yankees have next to zero depth in the upper minors and are strapped at the Majors as well. They absolutely must stop piecing it together through long-term free agent signings where they lose draft pick after draft pick. I would recommend no trades for the Yankees unless they can add bodies in the deals. It’s going to take three to four years of rock solid drafting and signing of amateurs to restock the Yankee farm system and set them up for a brighter future.
Rangers might be interested in latos as well
I think the Rangers would be interested in a pitcher who can just pitch without getting hurt.
Latos is a good pitcher Charlie
Oh, no doubt about it. I am just saying that the Rangers would be happy to get any starting pitcher, regardless if it was Latos, Cueto (highly doubtful they would try to pull the trigger on that one) or some schmo who is at least able to stay reasonably healthy, they just want something, regardless almost of who it is.
There’s been a lot of talk about Hamels potentially being on the trade block this winter and being a cheaper dollar compared to Lester or Scherzer. Thus RAJ could wait out for a big return. I gotta imagine if the Reds hang out a for sale sign on any one of Cueto, Leake, or Latos or better yet more than one it would mean it’s more likely Hamels will be staying in Philly.
Cueto and Latos would bring in a great return, but what would the Reds get for Leake? I’d personally rather see them extend him. Leake is pretty solid in every aspect of the game, but still will likely be affordable. Behind Cueto, Leake is my favorite Red to watch pitch.