There have been several memorable performances this postseason, “but Madison Bumgarner has not only helped write this October’s script, he wins the Oscar for best actor,” Peter Gammons writes. Bumgarner’s phenomenal work in the playoffs (only six earned runs allowed in 47 2/3 IP) has already earned him a spot in baseball history, though the Royals still have a chance to get the last word in the World Series. In a separate piece on his Gammons Daily website, Gammons shares a few news items…
- A member of the Giants ownership group “said there is a swelling thinking” that the Red Sox will sign Pablo Sandoval as a free agent this winter. “The bigger the stage, the better he plays. He would love Boston,” the Giants official said. San Francisco is no small stage itself, of course, and rival general managers tell Gammons that they think the Giants will re-sign their star third baseman.
- One GM predicts that Luke Hochevar “will be a big item this winter” in free agency. The former No. 1 overall draft pick struggled as a starter in the majors but had a fantastic season out of the Royals bullpen in 2013. Hochevar missed all of 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and, if healthy, would be a nice under-the-radar pickup for teams looking for relief help.
- Gammons believes the Marlins can’t trade Giancarlo Stanton before his contract expires at the end of the 2016 season. “If they do, owner Jeffrey Loria’s credibility will take such a further hit that he may have to sell for the Marlins to ever be accepted,” Gammons writes. I’m not necessarily sure this would be the case — if Stanton makes it clear he won’t sign an extension with the club, Miami fans obviously wouldn’t be happy, but they’d understand that a trade would be a logical move for the Marlins to get a big return.
Jeffrey Loria’s credibility… Jeffrey Loria’s credibility… Jeffrey Loria’s credibility. Huh. I keep re-reading these words together but still can’t make any sense of them.
The Marlins don’t need a big return for Stanton. They have great youth coming up and made some noise before Fernandez went down. What the team needs is to sign it’s star player to a lifetime extension with a no trade clause. Well, at least a Trout type of contract.
If he will accept an extension you gotta do whatever is possible to sign him. They have money so there is no excuse not to if he is interested.
Do they really have the money? I don’t think they can really and truly afford to make him one of the highest paid players in baseball.
With a max payroll for the Marlins of about $60 million according to the team itself, how can they sign a guy that is going to have several years of any extension that are around $30 million? MLBTR calculations say about $14 million in arbitration for this coming year and $20+ for 2016. After that he is looking at $25 million as a minimum AAV on a long term deal. Personally, I think several of the years on Stanton’s deal will be closer to the $33.25 million Trout is getting the last 3 years of his deal. Those are the free agent years the Angels bought out. So please explain to me how you think the Marlins can do that?
Will Panda numbers exceed “what Lester was offered” numbers? Ironic.
6/126 for Panda from the Red Sox, with incentives, maybe a vesting option/buyout for the seventh year. The Ortiz Era is coming to a close (maybe not this coming year) and the kids may not be ready to take all the limelight (not a reflection on talent). I think Red Sox management is going to want more stability than the extreme high/lows of the last few years, and Sandoval would be a part of that. It’s an overpay, but the Red Sox are a marketing machine as well, and they could use the energy.
I think 21 million a year is a bit too much AAV for him.
On pure value, you are probably correct. But I think he might have enough additional marketing pizzazz to make it worth the Red Sox while. Especially if they are seeing some decline in Ortiz where his options may not either vest or, in 2017, get picked up.
Yes he is marketable, but you still don’t want to overpay. 15-18 AAV is probably what he is worth, but you may end up in some sort of bidding war. Or he may resign with the Giants. Either way I think this means Headley is going to get more than he is worth. I do not envy Ben C.
Sandoval is an atypical player. His signing could be like the Angels’ signing of Torii Hunter eight years ago. Everyone thought is was a gross overpay, (5/90) but he delivered 21.2 bWar and was very consistent.
It’s less a question of whether he will live up to the salary and more a question of having enough money to fulfill all of your needs in the offseason. The Sox need a third baseman, two starters, a backup catcher and at least one bullpen piece. They have between 55-60 million to do all of this. If they give Sandoval 21 million, they may not have enough to sign a number one starter.
Sandoval’s average over the last 3 seasons: .280/.335/.424, 116 OPS+, 26 2B, 14 HR, 72 RBI …even in this market, I’m not sure how that screams “$100 million player”
A little less than a 3WAR so around 15/per is most appropriate. So either being a FA will gives teams the incentive to tack on more years or more $ but yeah I don’t see how he’s a “100 million player” either.
Supply and Demand. And he’s a lot better than Chase Headley (didn’t used to be, which is odd considering their respective body types, but there you are).
He’s going to be 28 years old at the beginning of next season. He could get 100 million on a 6 or 7 year deal. AAV 15-18 million wouldn’t be unreasonable considering what fWAR is going for these days.
While he seems to come alive in the postseason Sandoval hasn’t cracked the top 10 in 3B fWar since 2009. I’d be very concerned that given his early peak and inability to hit since then he’s going to be more Andruw Jones then a guy still in his peak years.
Also unless something dramaticly changes, he hasn’t hit well enough to carry 1B/DH since 2009 either, he basically has to play 3B for the majority of his next contract to be anywhere near worth the deal.
I wouldn’t see him playing third as an issue. He’s a third baseman. And he hasn’t cracked to top 10, but this year he was 11th overall in fWAR and 6th in defense. He’s the best available third baseman and he’s only going to be 28 next year. He’s not a bad player, and he’s an above average hitter and fielder. He hasn’t had an inability to hit, he’s still a good hitter. If he can be a 3 fWAR player, which he is, he’ll earn his money.
That’s wish casting, he’s been a 3 fWAR player just twice in the past 5 years. Expecting him to arrest his declining offense while maintaining his passable defense is a bad bet. It’s a faulty assumption to think a player prime is going to be when they’re in the standard age bracket, particularly ones who debuted early. There’s a variety of guys who were far better then him (Jones/Griffey Jr. etc) who haven’t had documented workout issues who fell apart at age 30.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m a Giants fan, I think Pablo is a nice player. I also think he’s gone because I think someone is going to give him just the deal you’re suggesting and it’s going to be a disaster halfway though when his body starts to break down, he can’t play 3rd regularly and he doesn’t hit well enough to play someplace down the defensive spectrum.
Past 3 calender years:
Sandoval 7.9 WAR, 4.9 defensive value, 18.7 offensive value, -9.4 Bsr, 115 wRC+, .280/.334/.434 slashine
Aramis Ramirez 9 WAR, 4.1 defensive value, 34.8 offensive value, -12.8 Bsr, 127 wRC+, .291/.352/.482 slashline
If
anybody is deserving of 15 million AAV, it’s Aramis Ramirez. As a Sox fan, I
would much rather see Boston sign him on a 2 or 3 year deal as opposed
to Sandoval long term.
He’s right handed and he may not even be available. And I’d be concerned about his age. Sometimes the wheels fall off very fast. Especially since he’ll be 37 next season. It’s very rare for a position player of that age to still be productive. I’d be afraid you’d get another Beltran.
I can confirm. Being 37 years old, I lost 2 wheels this morning.
I’m 38. I lost three.
I’m 40. I’m a man. …and I’m old.
I’m 58, and while I can still run, those wheels aren’t exactly the high end Pirellis
If the Giants win the Series, Panda will most likely return. 3 championships in 5 years… hard to go against that.
If the Royals win, I could see a bidding war for his services between the Yanks and Sox.
I don’t think the Yanks will be in much of a bidding war for Pablo, it just seems as though they aren’t superbly interested in him plus, spending BIG in this years FA doesn’t to be there plan. Honestly, I’d say they’ll more than likely end up with Headley, and the Sox and Giants will ultimately be the front runners for Pablo.
I was just looking at Sandoval’s numbers the past few seasons; obp, slg, and ops have all declined the past 4 seasons, while K’s (though still a decent number) have gone up. His BA is consistent and he did have the 2nd most hits in his career this season so that’s a positive number. Still, the declining numbers are a bit of a red flag for me.
I wonder if the Sox would consider trying to put something together for Valbuena of the Cubs? Maybe for a couple of pitchers? I’m not sure the Red Sox would go for it after having been burnt by youth a few times, but the Cubs are stacked in the minors and could replace him without missing a beat.
It’s an interesting idea to pursue as a back-up option one would think, and I’d be all for it, as long as the price isn’t high or unreasonable (even though it may be). I didn’t realize the dude had such a good year for the Cubs, and he fits the Red Sox motto perfectly; having the ability to take a walk and get on base (even though he has only had one good year). The only thing is, you have to question, will you get the Valbuena of 2014, or the Valbeuna pre-2013?
It depends. If you think he’s legitimately taken a step up and is this player now, then great. If you think he’s the guy from before that just had some luck, then you don’t do it. It’d be a risk, but maybe worth taking. Only if everything else falls through though. They can’t afford a repeat of Middlebooks/JBJ and their pitiful offense.
Hochevar has one good year in the pen after half a decade of being an abysmal starter, sits out a year injured, and is now a big ticket item? Nutty.
I believe the Seattle mariners will sign Sandoval to a 7 year $500 million deal.
Forget Sandoval. Headley’s the better option. If anthing the sox should call up Pits to see whats up with Neil Walker, I could see him being a good fit for Boston.
I’m pretty sure that Dustin Pedroia and the 7 years/96.5 million dollars he is owed would disagree with you.
What credibility does Loria still have? You guys are saying that Stanton is looking at $14 million in arbitration this offseason and more than $20 million in 2016 before he is eligible for free agency. The Marlins have said they will increase payroll to “close to $60 million” for 2015, but that still means Stanton alone would be 25% of their total payroll. How can they field a good, let alone contending team with one guy making that much of payroll? If $60 million is pretty much the top end of payroll for them, how can Loria or anyone else seriously expect them to spend the $20 million to keep Stanton even until 2016? Beyond 2016 he is going to be making $25-30 million per season. It simply does not make any sense at all that they are even saying they are going to try to keep him. The Marlins have to trade Stanton because there is simply ZERO way they can keep him.
I agree, but they’ll wind up botching the situation in the worst way possible.
The Marlins already stated that they will try to sign Stanton to an extension and if they can’t they will keep him until he is a free agent. With revenue sharing small market teams have more money and teams are reluctant to trade a HR hitter of that caliper. Those type of players are hard to come by and there is a good chance that if they trade him for prospects, the prospects will be busts.
The Marlins can move Stanton but it has to be for a star player in return. Would a Stanton for Puig plus one of Seager/Urias be so far out of line? A generational-type hitter for a cost-controlled star player (that happens to be in Cuban in a market that is heavily populated with Cubans) and a high ceiling prospect. Its pandering, but it would probably be received well.
A 1B or DH with those numbers? Woof. And these are his prime years.
I am not so sure trading Lester for Panda (in effect) is a great idea.
Lester is just as clutch as Panda is in the postseason…. and he is homegrown… and he is lefty which should buy him an extra 2 years v. Scherzer.
Of course they could get both… for a quarter of a billion dollars. Does not seem like their new MO though.
Doubt it. Panda’s not the Sox kind of hitter. He’s an aggressive, swing-at-anything type. I think they move Bogaerts to third, find a less expensive SS, and spend their big bucks on Scherzer or Shields. Then trade Cespedes for another SP and trade for his replacement. If they spend $20m on Panda they’re probably not getting a top tier SP, which is a bigger need.
The have between 55 and 60 million to spend, so it wouldn’t stop them from also signing an ace. It would just cut into how much they could spend for a number 2.
Sox won’t be trading for any OFs even if Cespedes is traded – we have plenty.
Whose $$ are they losing? I guess Lester … who else?
No more Drew, Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Gomes. In order that’s 10, 13, 14.5, 16, 5. That’s 58.5. Depending on whether they resign Koji, there’s 4.5 there too (if you replace his bullpen spot with a rookie you save 4). If they trade one of their outfielders on expiring contracts, there’s some more money there (although that is probably eliminated by the signing of Castillo). The money is there if they choose to spend it.
They’re losing those contracts, yes, but they are also adding quite a bit in current player contracts going up in money. Buccholz is getting a ~$4.2MM raise, Craig ~$2.25MM, Ortiz $500K. And depending if you want to count it as a raise, Castillo is going from $870K to $11.2MM.
If their goal is to keep payroll under the level it was this year, they have less than $50MM to spend after arbitration cases.
That’s not their goal. Their goal is to keep payroll under the luxury tax. Their ownership has already stated that they have “a lot of money to spend.” They spent 156 last season and presently have 105 committed to next year with the luxury tax hitting at 189 million. They have three arbitration eligible players and need to sign two starting pitchers and a third baseman as well as a backup catcher. The rest can be filled in from the minors or they can sign a few relievers if they want. They could probably bump up against 170 and still have some wiggle room. Even if they gave Panda 18 AAV and a starter 25 AAV, that still leaves money for another pitcher. It’s not an either or. They’ve gone as high as 175 in the past.
Gotcha. I wasn’t familiar with their goals or what the luxury tax threshold was. This was enlightening, thank you.