The Yankees will extend a qualifying offer to closer David Robertson, Jack Curry of the YES Network tweets. They hope to keep him, Curry writes, citing a source.
The decision was probably not a difficult one for the Yankees. Robertson continued his strong work in his first season as the replacement for Mariano Rivera, posting a 3.08 ERA with an excellent 13.4 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 64 1/3 innings. Even given the qualifying offer, he’ll be the most desirable player on the closer market, particularly given his relative youth — he’ll be 30 in April. MLBTR’s Steve Adams predicted that Robertson would receive a four-year, $52MM deal this offseason.
I know the fine writers of MLBTR disagree with me but Robertson should accept the QO. I dont think any teams will be lining up to give up a draft pick for the right to offer a high AAV deal to a reliever, even one as good as Robertson.
Yep. It’s basically going to be he pitches for the Yankees on a 1-year $15mill dollar deal or for a lot less if he rejects it.
That’s what everyone said about Soriano two years ago. Soriano wasn’t as good as Robertson.
There was no QO when Soriano became a free agent. (EDIT: Yes I know this statement is incorrect)
Yes there was. He got one of the first QOs two offseasons ago, same year LaRoche, Lohse, etc. got Qualifying Offers.
Soriano. Swisher, and Kuroda rejected QOs after 2012.
I believe there were nine that year: Hamilton, Bourn, Upton, Swisher, LaRoche, Lohse, Soriano, Kuroda, and someone else, right?
Possibly, I’m not sure.
Meant to reply to WKTRM as well
Yeah, I think it was those eight plus David Ortiz.
Turns out your right, I thought Soriano was a FA the year prior. That being said, Soriano was actually coming off a better season than Robertson and landed only a two year deal.
He’s also much older, and not that much better, really. Robertson’s peripherals were fantastic this season. Soriano’s deal minus some AAV plus some years is exactly what MLBtr is predicting, and it only takes one team to go that far to make it happen.
Soriano was a free agent in 2011 when he signed for 3 and $35M with the Yankees which was before QOs. He opted out and then signed with the Nats. That’s the deal I was referring to.
Robertson has the better track record though even if one could argue his 2014 wasn’t excellent.
2.68 FIP despite a 15.3 HR/FB rate, the highest of his career by five full percentage points? Sign me up. Normalize that HR/FB rate and xFIP gives Robertson a 2.13 xFIP.
I think NY is in the driver’s seat. The QO has to be a killer for Closers and high relievers. I think he’ll take a 3 year offer between 11-13 aav.
Rafael Soriano is the only Qualifying Offer recipient for a relief pitcher and received a two-year deal with an AAV higher than the QO at the time (14 MM over 2 years, versus a 13.3 MM QO)
I agree, Robby gets 3/36 deal from the Yanks!
Real question:. The QO offer is made 5 days after the World Series and then the player has 7 days to accept or reject… are those *business* days or calendar days? I am assuming calendar days?
Every day is a business day in baseball!
If he declines the QO he’s free to negotiate a longer term deal with the Yankees right? You’d have to figure this as a good negotiating tactic if that’s the case. It depresses his value with other clubs if he declines it. If he accepts it they have their closer for another year.
You’re forgetting if he signs with another team they forfeit their first round pick to the yanks. Being extended a qualifying offer pretty much decreases his negotiating power.
It is a good negotiating tactic for the Yankees, not for Robertson.
Ah, I thought you said something else. My apologies.
It’s all good.
So if Robertson is worth four years and 52 million what would Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland be worth? I know only Holland was the closer but the other two put up better numbers than Robertson and are under 30 years old. As you can probably tell I am a Royals fan and may just be slightly bias towards our bullpen.
Robertson is better than Herrera, and Davis is getting paid handsomely as it is via his club option – I believe about 9 MM on a team friendly deal. This is also the first year of Davis being a lights-out reliever. Holland is worth a good penny, though. I’d agree there.
Davis will get 7 million in 2015, 8 in 2016 and 10 in 2017
Thansk! That’s actually basically what MLBtr is predicting for Andrew Miller but on a three-year term.
I was just noticing that as well. Davis was almost unhittable all year. I think KC needs to suck it up and pay their bullpen what it is worth. With the type of baseball KC plays, they need a lock down bullpen.
Davis would get Andrew Miller money. Unlike Robertson, Holland might actually get 4 and 52. But if Robertson is worth 4 and 52 then Holland would be worth 4 and 60.
Herrera and Davis also don’t have a platform of four elite seasons heading into the open market. As good as Herrera was in 2012 and 2014, he was fairly ordinary in 2013. Plus, there’s no way you can bank on any relief pitcher to go an entire season without giving up a single HR like Herrera did this year, so he’s due for some regression when he doesn’t repeat that feat.
If Davis pitches anywhere near this level for another three seasons, he’ll get an enormous contract himself, but Robertson and Davis are the same age right now. Even if Davis were to hit the open market after three more great years, he’d be doing so at a much older age than Robertson.
Not a knock on anyone in their bullpen. They’re all great.
I think Robertson should accept it, but he won’t. What’s his downside? He comes back to the Yankees for a cheaper deal than the Qualifying Offer? 1/13? 1/12? The Yankees would take him back. His upside is a pretty sizable deal, and he will probably explore that option and maybe eventually re-sign in New York anyway.
He would probably sign a 3/33 deal with the Yankees if he strikes out in free agency.
It’s the right move, but with the luxury tax, that’s a lot of coin for a closer, if he takes the QO. I guess the better question for the Yankees is the alternative. If they don’t make the QO, and he signs elsewhere, they still need to deal with the bullpen. Even putting Betances back there means you have to replace Betance, and that will cost. So, the actual cost is the difference.
Robertson is stuck between a rock and a hard place… well as much as a person who’s been offered a guaranteed $15M can be. The yanks seem to only want him as a placeholder for Betances so likely no long term deal there. But attaching a draft pick to his signing diminishes his negotiating power. Accepting seems to be his best move.
15 million was the top dollar for a closer last year, some place holder.
I don’t see the Yanks losing Robertson to another team!
The Yankees should not risk losing him, the bullpen is their only sure strenght.
Robertson HAS to decline.
What’s the risk? Losing two to three million, and resigning with the Yanks on a one year deal anyway?
While the reward is getting a multi-year deal worth 40m+.
This is an easy decision.
what´s the market for closers? the Papelbon deal was awful for example, one pitcher doesnt make the difference, actually 64 innings doesnt; you need a strong group, otherwise your leads will be lost before you get to the 9th
my point was that you need to have everything set minus the closer for this to be viable, if you dont have a bridge for the 7th and 8th, your closer will be useless; not every team fits that
I’m not sure how your comment(s) responds to mine. Did you mean to reply to someone else?
I’d honestly would give Drob a multi-year contract. This post season has shown the importance of shutdown relievers. Yankees need someone like Drob to fill a relief spot.