The Cubs are preparing to make a run at top free agent catcher Russell Martin, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. That does not come as a significant surprise given Chicago’s apparent spending plans and its current roster alignment; indeed, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently predicted that the Cubs would ultimately land Martin.
Of course, the Cubs are not the only club with significant interest in Martin, who had an outstanding 2014 campaign and stands alone on the starting catching market. As Heyman notes, the Dodgers, Pirates, Blue Jays, and even Red Sox have been connected to Martin in rumors or by way of analysis. And the list of plausible landing spots is probably longer than that.
At present, Welington Castillo sits atop the Chicago backstop depth chart, with John Baker in reserve. That unit ranked fourth from the bottom last year in terms of fWAR, with Castillo taking a big step back in terms of his offensive output. After two straight years of above-average production at the plate, to go with BABIP tallies that landed just under the .350 mark, Castillo managed only a .237/.296/.389 line over 417 plate appearances, in 2014. And both Stat Corner and Baseball Prospectus are down on his work behind the dish.
Castillo did register double-digit home runs (13) for the first time last year, and remains a valuable young player. But there is little doubt that Martin would represent a significant upgrade.
Totally plausible the Cubs land Martin as well as A and B level starting pitchers. Could easily see Lester, Peavy, and Martin all on the north side.
I’ve seen McCarthy’s name bandied about as that lower guy. If that’s a real thing, I’d rather have McCarthy over Peavy.
And I would take Volquez or Liriano over either one of those 2.
Volquez? Scary. He pitched for my team the last half of 2013, he’s great if you like pulling out your hair. He’s like the Marmol of starting pitchers.
The cubs already have the marmol of starting pitching with EJax
Not true. Marmol was occasionally effective.
I like the way Liriano is pitching lately! He would be a good upgrade.
While Liriano has had somewhat of a resurgence in Pit. he has yet to start 30 games there and has yet to hit 163 IP in a season. If they were to get him (doubt it) they would be wise to not break the bank on him. 15 mil/year for only 2 years TOPS is more than what I think he’s worth but is probably what a pitcher of his status is probably going to go for in this day and age. He’s a guy who comes with a lot of injury risk.
True, pitching is outlier unless you are the giants every other year!
Liriano, yes. Sign me up.
Volquez is nothing special and hasn’t been for 6 years. That ERA this year was an anomaly.
Totally plausible other teams land Martin, etc. Just sayin….don’t get your hopes up yet.
Not sure why you think I have my hopes up…Red Line goes to both parks in Chicago
I’d be surprised. Jed and Theo keep talking about “the next 13 months” and “next winter.” Despite the Maddon signing I just don’t think they’re ready to spend the big bucks in FA yet. Probably more likely that they will stick to the plan of reclamation arms and useful veteran bats.
What are they going to say….they aren’t going to vocalize arrogance.
On Mike and Mike this morning Cris Carter asked Theo Epstein what his plans were for the off-season. Theo stated quite frankly a couple front of the rotation starters and a position player or two that would not make Byant or Soler hit in the 3 or 4 spot so they could develop slowly. I was surprised at how forthcoming his answer was but he sounded like a kid in the candy store with a fifty dollar bill in his pocket.
I’m a White Sox fan…so I say this as no Wrigley fanboy….but if anyone thinks that the cubs are incapable of running roughshod through free agency..they’re wrong
They’ve always been rather up-front with their plans each year. Some people have just chosen to ignore things that they don’t want to hear. This is the first time during their Cubs tenure that they’ve been so adamant about spending big $$$ this FA.
Regardless of who is/isn’t a Cubs fan, I think following the Cubs and watching how they are going to attempt to build this within the next few years will be a really interesting storyline throughout MLB.
I see Lester, Martin, and another project arm to rebuild. Then in 2016 they bring in Price as the final piece.
Lester, Price, Arrieta, Hendricks, and CJ Edwards is a pretty good WS caliber rotation…
I agree, I could see a few different guys this winter. Brett Anderson, Brandon McCarthy, or Jason Hammel as back of the rotation guys.
Then David Price or Jordan Zimmerman, or maybe even Samardzija next winter.
Guys like Travis Wood, Edwin Jackson and Tsuyoshi Wada aren’t likely to stick around long-term
I think they sign Lester, Martin, Shields, Price and Cueto in 2016 and Hanley to back up Castro (tongue pressed against cheek). Let me guess you’re a cubbie fan, in all seriousness they can’t sign everyone.
I sense the sarcasm in your comment, but my scenario isn’t out of the question. They only have 2 players on long-term deals and both of them are on team friendly contracts (Castro and Rizzo). The rest of their entire team is full of young, controllable players. They could theoretically have the funds to sign 3 aces and have their full team for 5 more years before they have to pay any of the young players a huge salary.
Theoretically they could and maybe should but I wan’t to see Ricketts stop behaving like an investment banker (spending cheaply, complaining about lack of revenue streams,etc) before I pencil them in for 3 of the biggest dollar free agents in recent memory. I think the cubs should sign Lester, Price and maybe even Martin if Theo doesn’t like what he sees out of Schwarber. It’s probably smarter and cheaper to let some of the kids develop before pushing your chips all in. The most experienced of the kids (Rizzo and Castro) haven’t exactly been models of consistency. This team could just as easily decline in 15, personally I think 2016 is the year they challenge in that deep NL Central. Show some patience Cubs fans, jeesh.
Patience? 107 years ain’t long enough?
So people like you harp on them being realistic that even if they go on a free agent spree they know they probably won’t compete right away yet the same people would harp on them if they said they are in win now. Can the cubs do anything right? Lol
I think the game has changed immensely due to the second wild card. It makes sense given their financial state to bring arms in…a shot at .500 isn’t out of touch..or even dark horse contender status. None of what they’d likely do this winter would prevent obstacles to future success
I disagree, I think they will start upgrading the pitching big time this off season!
We got 9 million top prospects, a ton of money and no pitching, and a young, controllable, average hitting catcher named Castillo. Lets sign a catcher for big money, guys! Cubs make me wonder sometimes.
Martin makes a pitching staff better. I’ll trust Epstoyer until I’m proven wrong.
If he can make EJax be better.. well okay then. I’m not saying they should sign him, it just doesn’t make much sense when you can get a guy like Carlos Ruiz for cheaper in a trade, especially when you’re going to be dropping 200-250M on other FAs this offseason possibly.
If Russell Martin can make Edwin Jackson better, then I say give Martin all of the money.
Jackson’s you know what better be gone lol.
Jackson was a much better pitcher in Tampa under Maddon years ago.
if Russell Martin can make Jackson pitch like a pro they should just bypass all the niceties and put him in the HOF immediately.
Signing a catcher and pitchers are not mutually exclusive, as the post notes.
Castillo’s not bad, but Martin’s a clear upgrade over him across the board. I’m just not sure they want to commit to the years it would require and risk blocking Schwarber.
“We got…no pitching” The Cubs ranked 6th in Pitching WAR in the majors this year and 24th in offensive WAR.
Does that include Hammel and Smardzjia?
It does. But the pitching would have still ranked higher than the O after you subtract what Shark & Hammel did for the Cubs. They would have ranked 16th subtracting their combined WAR (4.0)
well, in theory the Cubs can gamble of Kris Bryant, Javy Baez, Alcantara and Jorge Soler to improve the offensive issues
on the pitching side, though, the only starters you can pencil in for next year are Arietta and Hendricks.
Agreed, but the notion the Cubs have no pitching is flat wrong. AND, it’s easier to “find” pitching right now than it is offense.
they don’t have ‘no pitching’… but they also don’t have a lot of ‘proven pitching’. Hendricks isn’t going to repeat his rookie performance (just doesn’t have the ‘stuff’ to sustain it) and Arietta, while probably for real, is still unproven.
They need to strike now why the market’s in their favor and get some proven starters to go with the the promising ones.
I see the Cubs signing some major pitchers in the next 2 years. Pitchers like Lester, Shields, McCarthy, Peavy, and Maeta. Of course they won’t get them all, but the will upgrade the rotation drastically.
Wada?
Yet pretty much middle of the pile in xFIP, which to my mind is a better indicator than an added up counting stat in WAR.
That’s just sheer luck IMO. Got out-of-character great years from a bunch of guys and no injuries. That’s not going to happen again. Pitching is VERY clearly the Cubs weakness.
I wouldn’t necessarily call it luck. This has been a pretty set pattern for a few years now. Obviously the pitching coach Chris Bosio is doing something right.
We’re talking Paul Maholm, Jason Hammel, Shark, Jake Arrieta, Travis Wood (for a year or so), Ryan Dempster, Scott Feldman, Garza, all had “out of character” years or half years under Bosio. I may be missing someone, I don’t know.
The Cubs also had Jason Hammel (the really good version of him) and Shark in the rotation for most of 2014. That helped boost their pitching WAR in 2014.
well, not entirely sure Shark’s numbers were all that helpful… he had something like 2 wins total at the time of the trade.
WAR, rightfully, ignores wins completely. Shark’s 3.09 FIP, 8.6 K/9 and 6.1 IP per start on the other hand really helped his WAR.
During his half-season in Chicago, Shark had 2 wins and 2.0 pWAR. He pitched very well in a lot of losses and no-decisions, he just had terrible luck.
the pitching would have still ranked higher than the O after you subtract what Shark & Hammel did for the Cubs. They would have ranked 16th subtracting their combined WAR (4.0)
don’t worry they will sign at least 1 big pitcher as well
I’m sure it’s not Martin OVER starting pitching… Why can’t they sign both?
yeah, i’ll believe it when i see it. They’re going to give 4 years and 50 million guaranteed to a catcher after making all that noise about Schwarber starting the year as a AA catcher… They may want Martin, but i doubt they’re the ones offering the biggest deal.
To play the other side, it would be nice to have a veteran like Martin in place in a couple years *if* Schwarber is then ready to catch some games at the big league level. It’s unlikely Schwarber will ever be catching five or six games a week, and pairing him with Martin sounds pretty reasonable to me.
in a perfect world that’d be great, no denying that. I just don’t see it likely that the Cubs would commit 15 million a year to a part time catcher… or that Martin’s all that interested in the arrangement either.
Schwarber is still a few years away from being a full-time starter (or close to it). The idea with Martin is to pay him big money to be our main catcher for the next few seasons and then as a mentor to Schwarber after that. If we’re lucky, Martin’s numbers won’t fall off before that happens.
Schwarber is not a ML catcher. He’ll likely move to 1B
Totally disagree. I’m from Indiana and I have seen many Indiana Hoosiers baseball games and Schwarber is very underrated catcher. He really is. He can handle being a catcher at the ML level
I have never seen the guy play. I have heard it from people in the industry. You probably have a better idea than me if you have seen him play
I have. I’m not saying he’s going to be a gold glover or anything. No where close like Yadi Molina. But how good his bat is, his catching skills is good enough
Don’t see the Red Sox being the slightest bit interested in Martin. They have other more pressing needs like starting pitching, 3rd base and some bullpen help. Signing Martin would only block what they see as their catching prospects.
I’m guessing Martin will come down to Chicago, LA, Pittsburgh, and Toronto.
So it will come down to Chicago v LA, no way PIT or TOR can keep up in that bidding war.
Yeah, most likely, they said Boston was also interested but they got a couple young catchers either in their system or already with the big league club. Martin is from Canada so he might consider Toronto.
Toronto can if they really want to. The have one of the richest ownership groups in the sport. They usually just don’t want to.
Even if the Jays really want Martin they still have to get him to come north of the border and sometimes the player wants a premium for that. Personally, I love Toronto but it seems a lot of players don’t wanna go up there. Toronto is kind of like Seattle in that regard.
Martin is Canadian…
You are correct, my bad. That should make Toronto much more appealing.
He’d be a big upgrade for both, so its possible they could bid up against each other till the numbers get silly.
I think he’s priced himself out of returning to the Pirates.
I don’t think so. IMO, he’s lined up for a 5 year, 75 million dollar deal and, the Pirates should be in on that price. The Pirates offered Martin and Liriano a QO so, it’s not like they can’t afford one of them accepting it. So, I think it’s certainly possible.
Draven…as a Pirate fan, I put it at a 04.5% chance of him returning.
And I think you right, and I’d say they’re better off not overspending to get him after his career year. But, it’s not like they couldn’t go after him if they wanted, it’s just not a typical move the Pirates would make, overspending on players.
Seemingly every team out there is going to make a run at Russ. It is good to be Russ this offseason.
1. I have this as one of my picks. I just want to say this now, so if it happens before the 7th, I can have it on record.
2. I think this would be a great signing. Russell Martin is a quality catcher and pitchers (like the free agent pitchers that the Cubs want to sign) like working with him. And they have all those young kids on the team who could use a veteran to guide them. This would work.
Tigers still have not exercised their 2015 option on Avila. Could be talking with Martin now.
Dont need to, have till Nov 20, then can still go through Arb even if we decline the option.
Avila is an excellent defensive catcher by all the metrics, so i really dont see DD wasting whatever FA budget we have on a position that doesnt desperately need filling.
But. Avila has had an awful lot of concussions. That might be an issue, sooner rather than later.
Maybe down the line, but i dont see that as a line in the Tigs thinking short term.
It really depends on how bad his concussion issues are.
Avila also has that concussion issue. I don’t know if DD is going to want to gamble he can stay healthy. The clock on them is running out. Miggy, Verlander, Sanchez and Kinsler aren’t getting any younger.
Would be a mistake. They are going to have problems come 2016 with all the contracts they have.
This would be a big mistake for the Tigers, upgrading a position that doesn’t need to be. I get it, Avila has had concussions issues the past two years but, no need to sign a big deal when their is no point, especially when Avila is pretty good when he is healthy. Also remember, Avila’s father is apart of the Tiger’s FO (I believe, correct me if I’m wrong).
His father is Al Avila, the assistant general manager and a vice president of the Detroit Tigers
True… but he is a Father first, Assistant GM second. Avila has had a good career. Does Alex really want to take a concussion risk of someday not remembering his kids when he gets older?
the Giants just outrighted Bruce Bochy’s son. Baseball’s not a very sentimental business.
I doubt it. The Tigers have stated they are limited by budget constraints this off season. Their outfield, 3B and BP situation will certainly take priority over spending big on Martin.
If Avila is gone, Catcher is more important than signing VMART or even a BP piece.
Exactly, why create an unnecessary need by non-tendering Avila when the Tiger already have needs to fill and limited payroll space.
I think youre panicking over Avila with no reason.
Hes said hes fine, the scans are all clear, sure his concussions arent great, but come April he’ll be in the Opening Day lineup without doubt.
As the top free agent catcher on the market and the Cubs average-ness (i just made that word up i think) at the position, its an obvious fit for Martin, but hes no doubt going to get big interest.
Its going to take an overpay whoever gets him, be interesting to see just how much.
In Pittsburgh Russel Martin built the reputation as the catcher that turns mid-tier starting pitchers into aces (See Liriano, Burnett, Volquez). He would have been highly sought after even if he hadn’t put up a career offensive year in 2014.
Martin has been a great handler of pitchers since his first season with the Dodgers.
Makes almost too much sense for the Cubs at this point. They may have to pay a premium for his offensive statistics from last year but people underestimate the value of a proven veteran with defense behind the plate and Martin does it all well (especially frame pitches) and his bat is far from useless.
Good, LOVE it. Really hoping the 2 big guys the Cubs get is Lester and Martin. I also think they could surprise us by trading for Hamels but it depends on what exactly Phillies are wanting. Cubs aren’t going to give up any of the very top prospects.
The Cubs are loaded with prospects. Getting Hamels will cost something. The Phillies ask of the Red Sox was Betts, Owens, Swihart, Margot (which was nuts). What would be a fair deal from the Cubs point of view? Would you include high K guys like Baez or Alcantara?
OO I know they wont get him for free. I think if the Cubs eat the whole contract and I would trade them Travis Wood, Alcantara, Vogelbach, and some lower-level high upside guy for him. I think that is pretty fair
You say the Cubs won’t get him for free, and yet that is basically what the proposal indicates
How? Cubs eat the whole contract, Wood has been an all star before, Alcantara and Vogelbach both top 100 prospects and the lower level prospect be one of our better arms down in A or A+
Yea and the Phillies are asking for 3 TOP prospects along with teams taking on most if not all of the money. Like posted earlier, they asked the Red Sox for Betts, Owens, Swihart and more for just Hamels. No money attached coming to Boston.
I’d make Baez the centerpiece of a Hamels trade. Someone has to go in the Castro/Baez/Russell middle infield and Baez’s numbers suggest a huge gamble, one that the Cubs should be willing to send off to someone else. Cubs can afford to take on Hamels’ contract (they claimed him after all) so all the cash plus Baez should get a deal pretty close with a few minor pieces thrown in.
I’d rather have Baez+others and Lester for $150 million than just Hamels for $90-110 million
Baez is expendable with Russell knocking on the door, and the Cubs could then have both Lester and Hamels while not losing much of anything up the middle with Castro and Russell. I’d like to keep all of them as well, but if there is a log-jam Baez is my vote to be cashed in for a need elsewhere.
Much more likely Cubs get Montero or Carlos Ruiz in a trade and Martin goes to Texas.
Watching the press conference yesterday you could see the Cubs are all in this winter. I can see them signing Lester or Shields, Peavy or McCarthy, and another pitcher. Martin seems to be a good fit. I think they will also move some prospects like Addison, Almora, or Soler for a stud pitching prospect.
They aren’t all in. Addison, Almora, and Soler will NOT be getting trade, guarantee it. Will they sign an ace? Yes. But they aren’t all in
I would trade Addison to the Nats, Mets, or Marlins for pitching. Giolitto, Syndergaard, or Heaney!
No Thanks
Elite prospect for elite prospect trades like that never happen
The last one I can think of is the Montero for Pineda swap like 5 years ago between the Yanks and Mariners. And we all know that did not turn out to well for either side.
Giolito may be the most untouchable pitching prospect at this point in the game.
I would not trade Russell or Soler. Nor would I trade Bryant and I would have a hard time trading Almora. I would trade Alcantara and Baez though because I think they are long shots to hit based on bad plate discipline and lousy K/BB rates. They are both young but statistically speaking it’s historically difficult to fix issues extreme as their’s. I know Cub fans are excited about Baez and rightfully so. His bat speed is second to none. I just have a hard time seeing him becoming a star because of his plate discipline. Plus I think Russell is going to be this generation’s Derek Jeter (with defense). I’d go get something decent with Baez while he still has prospect shine.
And think how much easier it would be to sell the Cubs as a destination for that TOR arm if the they could say “Oh, and you will be pitching to Martin”
Russell, Almora, and Soler seem like the least likely guys to be traded of the Cubs’ collection. Would rather see Baez go if the deal was right.
I don’t think Baez unlocks any of those Mets arms they have stashed. Baez is 52 flavors of raw
Would the cubs have to give up a draft pick due to his QO?
2nd round. 1st round is protected
Noted. Given the Cubs ability to draft well, Russell is looking extremely pricey to me. No thanks!
It is pretty easy to draft well when you have years at the top of the draft. Ask the Rays
I thought so too. I was sort of surprised that the Cubs were still interested after the QO, knowing Theo’s desire to develop prospects for future growth.
yeah but at some point you have to win now, and with the cubs’ stacked farm system draft picks that won’t bloom for another 5 years isn’t exactly the timetable Theo is on.
I like the idea of signing Russell, and what he can bring to team. He’s a guy that is easy to talk up his strengths and what he would add to the club, however he comes with some risks- specifically, being injury-prone and his .340(ish) BABIP inflating his stat line last year. If Martin agrees to a deal appropraite for a 110 game-a-season catcher, likely to produce a line closer to his career .250/.350/.400, then I’m all for it.
A .750 OPS catcher that draws walks and frames pitches well would be a welcomed addition. Martin is known for working well with pitchers and could help mentor Welington Catstillo, and more likely keep the spot warm for Schwarber, who may well be the Cubs real catcher of the future. Castillo looks to have blown his shot at the startering job, too bad because he seemed to have a lot of potential on both sides of the ball…
No more than a 3 year deal for Martin.
I’d rather try and buy low on a trade for Montero, maybe a package of Lake, Olt, Wood, might get it done. Prolly not that seems pretty low low.
Lake and Olt look a lot like AAA roster fill.
Come to the White Sox with V-Mart, Jason Hammel, and Luke Gregerson
Gotta have a lefty power bat
No Martin needs to go to Texas now chirnios is not going to be good next year
True, but he is a young prospect with an injury in his recent past!