The Phillies have several players they could trade this offseason, but Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that Marlon Byrd is drawing the most significant interest in the early-going. Byrd has a four-team no-trade clause that previously included the Blue Jays, Mariners, Royals and Rays, but Chris Cotillo of SB Nation’s MLB Daily Dish reports (via Twitter) that he has since made some changes to the teams on the no-trade list as the Phillies gear up for the offseason. Players are often allowed to edit their no-trade protection following the completion of a season.
Byrd is owed a very reasonable $8MM in 2015, but the complication in trading him will likely be a vesting option at the same amount for the 2015 season that will trigger if Byrd reaches 463 plate appearances next year. That would lock a team into paying Byrd $8MM for his age-38 season. The option further complicates matters because Byrd can use it as leverage; in July when the Mariners and Royals expressed interest in acquiring him, Byrd reportedly offered to waive the clause only if Seattle or Kansas City would agree to exercise the 2016 option in advance. He could take a similar approach this offseason, identifying four clubs with a need in right field — the Royals and Mariners would make sense — and again attempt to use the option as leverage.
Byrd posted a strong season with the Phillies, batting .264/.312/.445 with 25 homers and plus defense in right field (+3.5 UZR/150, +6 DRS). Given the thin market for outfield bats — Melky Cabrera, Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis, Colby Rasmus, Nori Aoki and Alex Rios are among the available names — it’s not surprising that many clubs would consider Byrd to be a more affordable alternative. The question will be whether a team will meet GM Ruben Amaro Jr.’s asking price given Byrd’s age and option, as it seems unlikely that Amaro would be content to simply dump the salary of a productive player elsewhere. Amaro’s asking price on Byrd was said to be rather high at the trade deadline.
I would much prefer the Royals try to sign Rasmus if he would agree to play RF than to sign a player like Byrd. Having an outfield of Gordon, Cain, and Rasmus would be fun to watch. Plus I think he would actually fit in with the young, high energy locker room and coach that lets his players play and doesn’t micro manage them.
That’s a thought! Plus, I can’t see Moore doing a deal with Ruby. Mike Arbuckle works for the Royals and I don’t see the Royals and Phillies doing business because of it. That and I don’t see the Royals giving up prospects for Byrd.
If a GM refuses to deal with another GM because one of his assistants didn’t get the job – that’s just flat out petty.
I think Colby Rasmus is always a bad idea for any team. The only advantage he has over Byrd right now is age.
Just curious why you say he is bad for any team? Seems to me like most of the bad reputation was based on things dating back to his time in St. Louis. I think in the right environment a guy like Rasmus could really flourish.
Fair point. I recall him struggling to fit in after the trade, but admittedly haven’t heard his name in a while (I’m an NL guy). But I also don’t think his production makes him very attractive. At some point it seems fair to question whether there is a right environment for some guys.
I dont think he had trouble fitting in at all in toronto. He said he really enjoyed playing here. I think rasmus would be a great fit for kansas, the only thing is that kauffman stadium may cut down his production, as he is almost entirely a hr hitter and not much else.
He is already hitting poorly in Toronto, and Byrd is even a more productive long ball hitter. Just not seeing the upside of Rasmus over Byrd.
Rasmus is a very down to earth guy, at least in his interviews…..hes not the most articulate man when it comes to his speech. His biggest problem to date is not being able to adjust to hitting the breaking ball….find the right hitting coach (seltzer wasn’t it) and this guy can be a STAR
Alex is going to the Mets
Trust me. As a life-long blue Jays fan. If you have Rasmus, HE IS YOUR CF. The guy gsn flat out go get em in CF. He IS better than Cain. I wish the Jays would bring him back…..wont miss his 170 strikeouts…..hes got 40 homeruns in that bat too….gonna be nice for whoever gets him
Reds could be a fit, they were rumored to be interested. I think they’ll first take a shot at Aoki, and if that number gets two high or for too many years, then they’ll consider trade options like Byrd.
In regards to him changing some teams on his NTC, I’d have to imagine he left Toronto and Tampa on there (because he didn’t want to play on turf). But it will be interesting to see who the new teams are (if we ever find out). Of that list of FA OFers, I think he’s the 3rd best option (behind Melky and Cruz – although he’s better defensively).
Given the lack of terrific outfield alternatives on the FA market, Byrd might very well go high. Although paying RA’s price (probably something scorching) might lead people to look elsewhere on the trade market. If you are going to have to pay top dollar, better to get someone younger and more athletic.
I think asking for a #5-10 organizational prospect (or 2 in the #10-15 range) isn’t exorbitant. Judge falls in that range (or did mid-season). Judge has the “allure” of Stanton to Yankees fans – but I’ve seen him compared to Kyle Blanks much more often.
The problem, I think, for a GM on the other side of the deal is that if Byrd ages/get’s injured/underperforms and the prospect turns out to be even a solid major leaguer, it’s going to be the deal that the fans remember.
GM’s take that risk on every single trade they make.
True, but buying two years of a 38 year old is a little risky.
All depends on if you’re a contending team and what prospects are involved. If you give up 2 of your team’s 10-15 ranked prospects as phillyfan425 suggested and both ended up being stars, that’s just the luck of the draw and most fans realize that. Giving up prospects in those ranks are much more likely to never make it to the bigs than to be all-stars.
Sure. But he’s done a better job staying healthy than most, and he’s performed more-than-adequately.
If your outfield is weak, but the rest of your team is solid and you’ve got a strong farm, that’s a risk you probably have to take.
1 year and and if he doesn’t reach 460 PA, the option won’t vest. More like 1 year of a 5-days-a-week outfielder/DH who has had back-to-back good years.
also trading him out of the division helps. I rather get Nimmo over Judge who seems to get hurt and Yankee prospects like Tiger prospects usually don’t pan out
Byrd is passable, but he isn’t going to get traded unless the Phillies lower their demands. They had the chance to trade him at the deadline, but teams don’t want to give up a ton of money for him on that contract at that age.
I don’t think it’s been mentioned here yet, but I read reports that they are trying to trade Howard also.
That’s because they can try all they want and it’s not going to happen.
it’ll take a very savvy maneuver to trade Ryan Howard and I don’t think Ruben has it in him. If there is a suitor, management is more than willing to eat most of Howard’s remaining salary and trade him, but I don’t know if they are willing to just release him and pay it all
The amount of salary relief obtained from moving Howard makes it not worth moving him.
Pretty much the best way they can maximize their R.o.I. on Howard is to keep playing him while continuing to capitalize on a segment of the fan base’s nostalgia, and hope he has a surprisingly-good season in 2015, which lets them move him at the deadline or off-season for about half of his remaining salary.
If the team were likely to contend next year it’d be another story, but since not… The advantage of maybe getting $5MM off the books over the course of the next 3 years is so marginal that even though the odds of his coming back are low, the advantage of possibly getting out from $15MM+ over the 2016/2017 seasons makes it more worth it.
I couldn’t agree more and I think this every time I see someone say the phillies p
must trade howard. Players bounce back every year (for example marlon Byrd) and Howard could be next. He’s never getting back to his MVP production, but a slash of 250/320/450 I don’t think is completely out of the realms of possibility. Then his value as a dh or 1b could climb somewhat back to where a team would pay him 8-15 mil or so.
We’d probably be hard-pressed to find someone willing to offer $15MM for 1+ years of a .770 OPS DH. Especially one who struggles so much against LHP (although if he has a second straight year where he does much better against LHP than RHP, then I don’t know what to think).
Although personally, I think .770 is probably his ceiling at this point. A .200 ISO is feasible, but I think he’s more likely to reside in the .160-.180 range, which realistically puts his probable OPS in the vicinity of .740.
Now, that would land him in the neighborhood of the 7th-best DH in the AL this year (roughly equivalent to Dunn), so there’s definitely some teams who might be interested in that if current trends hold… But I think $8MM is probably the most we’d get back. Which, for 1 year plus an option, isn’t too bad, all things considered.
Yes my initial estimate was a tad on the outrageous side. I must admit as a phillies fan, there’s still a huge rush of euphoria every time big peice goes yard. It’s a shame it’s all fell apart for him.
Maybe the only way they trade Howard is to package him with someone like Revere and some cash. Detroit may need a DH/1B platoon and a CF.
This would be a modest upgrade in the outfield for the M’s if he shares time with Ackley and Saunders. A good relief pitcher plus a long-shot prospect is about all I would trade for him, though. I don’t see giving him a long extension at his age so his impact is going to be short-term. No way the M’s should give up a real prospect for him.
The Rangers should be interested. They need a bat, preferably an OFer…plus Byrd is familiar with the ballpark.
I don’t know how much they are going to want to invest in a 39 year old outfielder. They’res alot of only-ifs for that team to contend. They need a lot of luck on the health side of things.
They have a few young OFers that are close but need more time in the minors. A vet like Byrd could be a good stop gap for year or two.
And by “39-year-old” you really mean “37-year-old,” right?
My bad. You’re right.
That article was more about how Cole Hamels would be a better deal then Scherzer or Lester on the Market and I agree with Ken…..
First off, this shows how bad the hitting is, and the GM’s knew it – they locked up almost everyone half-decent to long-term contracts.
Next, somehow MLB is going to have to address why the hitting during the season was about the worst in almost 40 years. Fans come to see the ball put in play, not to see people coaxing walks.
Its a 2 year deal with an avoidable option. What.
I think you got it backwards.
8 Million in 2015 and 8 Million in 2016 if his option vests. (550 PA)
How is it backwards? He needs 460 PA for that option to vest. As a 37 year old, that shouldn’t be an issue.
Fans come to watch baseball – what they want to see on the field varies. I’d rather watch a pitcher’s duel over a ridiculous 12-11 slug-fest, because then I know that the game won’t go on for 5 (or 7) hours purely because the pitchers are terrible.
Also, you’re exaggerating and ignoring the fact that we’re just now coming out of 20-30 years of heavy steroid use.
2014 MLB average OPS: .700
’92: .700
’91: .708
’90: .710
’89: .695
’88: .696
Hopefully he’s included in a real trade this time.
Byrd is a mediocre player with very little trade value. They tried to move him at the deadline when teams were desperate for some help on offense, and it didn’t go anywhere. B prospect maybe?
Byrd had positive defense, and the 3rd-best offense of all available OF.
In what world is that “mediocre,” and when he’s tied to a relatively small contract, in what world is that “very little trade value?”
I’d be cautious of a guy who sees a surge in power and defensive stats at 36. Eventually he’s going to decline from his career averages which are already lower than his output from the last 2 years. I think mediocre is fair for a player that K’d 185 times and walked 35 times in 2014. The eyes go as we age and power peaks generally around 30-31 (I think). If his batting eye continues to suffer and the power slips he could easily be a below average player for the simple fact that besides the power he can’t afford to lose much anywhere else. Defense actually peaks and declines earlier than any other skill so good luck to teams banking on his “plus” defense.
I assume you’re unfamiliar with the Marlon Byrd story.
First of all, this isn’t Byrd’s first good year with the bat. He was quite good from ’07-’10, then still passable in 2011. Then he was even better in 2013 (age 35, not 36) than this year. He got nailed for PEDs in 2012, but he also drastically altered his approach at the plate during his down-time there (noticeably), which seems to have greatly and positively affected his outcomes.
High K and low BB are unpleasant and all, but he posted a BA of .264 and an ISO of almost .200 (lower than last year, but still higher than 2010-2011, and in line with ’09/’08), which is more than enough to be a very positive force on offense.
Byrd’s always been a plus defender. His entire career. He used to be ridiculously good, now he’s just above average. He’s a darn sight better at D than any FA corner outfielder who has a positive bat.
That’s right he was busted for PED’s in 2012, explains the age 36 power surge.
It probably has something to do with it, yes. It probably had something to do with his ’07-’10 too.
However, the change in his approach at the plate has been serious, and plenty of people have commented on it. Do I think he goes back to posting ISOs in the .190-.200 range? No.
Do I think it’s probably he’ll be able to maintain them in the .150-.180 range? Yes.
Mr. Byrd has played for 5 teams in 3 years.
If it’s true that he’s a decent defender that hits, why did that happen? How come someone didn’t lock him up with a 4-5 year contract?
Season 1: Got off to a slow start with Cubs, BoSox needed an OF (after 3 got hurt), they traded for him. Suspended for PEDs, and Sox didn’t bring him back.
Season 2: Signed a minor league deal with the Mets (coming off the PED suspension) – they were bad, he was good. Traded him to the Pirates for (what looks to be) their future 2B.
Season 3: Pirates didn’t retain him, Phillies got him for 2 years, $8 M AAV (because of concerns over his PED past and age). He performed well last year (2.6 rWAR, 1.9 fWAR).
I’m with you, Byrd is being overvalued. How much value can you expect out of him in his 37 and 38 seasons?
Byrd was worth 1.9 fWAR this year. 4.1 fWAR last year. 1.8 in 2011. 4.0 in 2010.
Even if his option vests, he’ll cost $16MM, which is slightly less than the value of 3 fWAR. Do you think he’ll regress to 50% of what he is now within a year and a half?
Yes, I think he’s primed for a sharp decline. 50% of his 2014 (what he is now) is 1 fangraph win above replacement. I think there’s a good chance he’s declines further.
Based on what? His age when taken independently of his actual injury and regression history?
I think Byrd & Bastardo combined together in a trade brings back a #4 type pitcher (#3 ceiling) like Elias from the Mariners.
the past 2 year averages:
BYRD – 151 G / 608 PA / 562 AB / 73 R / 25 HR / 87 RBI / 3 SB / .278 AVG
RIOS – 144 G / 592 PA / 554 AB / 69 R / 11 HR / 68 RBI / 30 SB / .280 AVG
RASMUS – 111 G / 417 PA / 382 AB / 51 R / 20 HR / 53 RBI / 2 SB / .254 AVG
CABRERA – 114 G / 497 PA / 456 AB / 60 R / 10 HR / 52 RBI / 4 SB / .294 AVG
AOKI – 144 G / 612 PA / 544 AB / 72 R / 5 HR / 40 RBI / 19 SB / .285 AVG
MARKAKIS – 158 G / 705 PA / 638 AB / 85 R / 12 HR / 55 RBI / 3 SB / .274 AVG
Gotta say it… Byrd at 8 Million is a damn good buy… the others will all make 10-14 million a year for at least 3-4 years. With Byrd, its just this year and next (and if he gets hurt, his 2016 option doesn’t vest)
That also said… Would not bother me to keep Bryd either. But his trade value is certainly worth more than others wrote here.
I don’t think Aoki will get a deal of 3+ years or $10+ M in AAV. But other than that, pretty accurate. Like I said. He’ll probably get the Phillies 1 prospect in the #5-10 range – or 2 prospects in the #10-20.