Headlines

  • Astros To Sign Jake Odorizzi
  • Brewers To Sign Jackie Bradley Jr.
  • Surgery Recommended For Framber Valdez
  • No Planned Future Discussion On Expanded Playoffs, Universal DH In 2021
  • Out Of Options 2021
  • Royals, Hunter Dozier Agree To Four-Year Extension
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Indians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Oakland Athletics
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2020-21 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions
    • 2020-21 MLB Free Agent Tracker
    • 2020-21 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2021-22 MLB Free Agent List
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2021
    • 2021 MLB Arbitration Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • Last 100 Comments
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Most Improved Free Agent Stock

By Brad Johnson | September 19, 2015 at 8:57pm CDT

It may be premature to talk about the most improved free agent stock – after all it’s mid-September. We still have two weeks left in the regular season. More importantly, the playoffs can be a massive boon to October’s top performers. Big numbers on the biggest stage are often parlayed into bigger paydays. For now, let’s just make do with what we know.

When thinking about the players who most improved their stock, there are two angles we can consider. Some players entered the season with sky high expectations. All they had to do was get through the current campaign at a level similar to their career rates to ensure a free agent windfall. David Price and Zack Greinke have outdone themselves and could be in line to earn even more than originally conjectured.

Price, 30, has long been viewed as a reliable left-handed ace. He’s largely matched his terrific 2014 campaign, and he’s turned up the gas since joining the Blue Jays. Prior to the season, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked him as the third best free agent with a chance to reach $200MM. A minor injury or lackluster season could have easily pushed him down closer to $100MM. Dierkes’ most recent update to the power rankings has Price as the top free agent with a realistic chance to exceed Clayton Kershaw’s seven-year, $215MM pact with the Dodgers. As an added bonus, Price won’t come with a qualifying offer attached since he was traded at the deadline.

While it was clear that 31-year-old Greinke would opt out of his contract with the Dodgers (assuming health), the success he has enjoyed was not wholly expected. Projection systems tabbed Greinke for around a 3.00 ERA this year. Instead, he’s worked to a 1.65 ERA through 30 starts. Home run suppression and a .231 BABIP have helped matters, but his dominance has allowed him to crawl out from under Kershaw’s shadow. Prior to the season, Dierkes thought another typical season from Greinke could get him $100MM in new money. Now he thinks Greinke could exceed Jon Lester’s six-year, $155MM deal.

Another pair of soon-to-be free agents may have increased their value by nearly nine figures this year. In a monetary sense, these are the clear victors of the most improved stock game. Neither slugger was a consensus top free agent prior to the season, but they’ll certainly be treated like royalty in a few months.

First baseman Chris Davis entered the year as an enigma. After a 53 home run campaign in 2013, Davis followed with a miserable 2014 season. For what it’s worth, I expected 2015 production somewhere around the mid-point between the two platform years. The 29-year-old has definitely exceeded that by a wide margin. Back in February, Dierkes considered Davis as an also-ran for the top 10 free agents list (along with Steve Pearce, Doug Fister, and Mat Latos among others). Now he’s fourth in the power rankings. Dierkes believes a seven-year deal worth more than $140MM is well within reach. I agree.

Right there with Davis is Yoenis Cespedes. Like Davis, he missed Dierkes’ top 10 before the season. Now he’s fifth and in a virtual tie with Davis. Dierkes projects the same seven-year contract of more than $20MM per season for Cespedes. The outfielder will turn 30 in a month and has reached new career heights with 35 home runs. His acquisition by the Mets is a big part of their current success. He’s in a bit of a mini-slump going 0-for-17 over his last four games. A slow end to the season and playoffs could remind buyers of his previous production. Alternatively, a noisy postseason could propel him past Davis.

This all begs the question – who most improved their stock? Is it the star who has all-but-secured a $200MM payday? The aging ace who’ll receive another massive contract? Or is it one of the surging sluggers?

Share 6 Retweet 29 Send via email0

Chris Davis David Price Yoenis Cespedes Zack Greinke

Injury Notes: Tulowitzki, Phegley, Harvey
Main
Quick Hits: Walker, Cespedes, Gyorko
8 comments
newest oldest

Comments

  1. jklaus37

    5 years ago

    My vote is cespedes. He has improved a lot ever since coming to the mets

    Like
    Reply
    • jvoynik

      5 years ago

      I’ve got to agree with you. He has been on a hot streak ever since joining the National League and is considered as a candidate for NL MVP

      Like
      Reply
  2. Joe

    5 years ago

    Chris Davis reminds me of Ryan Howard
    Just a bad contract waiting to happen

    Like
    Reply
    • gomerhodge71

      5 years ago

      Davis is a risk to me because of the medication he is on. The adderall is obviously a major factor in his performance. Does he continue to use it? Does he try to switch to something else that gets a rejection from MLB? Does he build up an immunity to it? And he still whiffs a little too much for my comfort zone. I’d give him 4-5 years, but not 7.

      Like
      Reply
  3. ryan211

    5 years ago

    Cespedes reminds me of Carlos Beltran circa 2004: power hitting out-fielder traded mid-season who then went on an absolute tear. If he continues his success in the post-season, as did Beltran that year, he’ll land a huge deal. And even if he doesn’t, he’s already doubled his production (per WAR) from any previous year. Put my vote down for Cespedes.

    Like
    Reply
  4. Drewnasty

    5 years ago

    I voted for Cespedes, but that doesn’t mean I would want to sign him to whatever deal he is now seeking. Big difference. In terms of who I’d want out of this group, give me Price every single day.

    Like
    Reply
  5. bobbleheadguru

    5 years ago

    Heyward for 8 years or Cespedes for 6 years at same AAV?
    I would go Heyward at age 26 v. Cespedes at age 30.

    Like
    Reply
  6. 73SFGiantsFan

    5 years ago

    Without taking away from the obvious production all of these impending Free Agents being discussed has put up. The idea of cash strapping an organization and locking a player into a contract anything more than 5 yrs is pure insanity. A perfect example of this are the Zito and Howard contracts of past and present. That doesn’t mean they are all bad, but percentage of failure far exceeds the history of success on these long term contracts. You ultimately backlog an organization. Consistently, year in and year out a teams 40 man roster gets held for ransom which forces teams to cut or expose players to the open market that they would normally not find themselves doing. I think 5 yrs is more than enough for teams to conduct medium range planning and assess their current crop of talents ascension through the organization while adding key pieces to solidify their teams ability to contend. The teams that are successful year in and year out have all limited their liability to long term contracts. Exception to this case would be the Dodgers because of Kershaw, and he is the exception to the rule in their case. I doubt they will get beyond the 2nd round of the playoffs again this year, and I’m perfectly fine with that. 300 million dollars does not buy you a ring.

    Like
    Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Please login to leave a reply.
Log in Register

ad: 300x250_1_MLB

    Top Stories

    Astros To Sign Jake Odorizzi

    Brewers To Sign Jackie Bradley Jr.

    Surgery Recommended For Framber Valdez

    No Planned Future Discussion On Expanded Playoffs, Universal DH In 2021

    Out Of Options 2021

    Royals, Hunter Dozier Agree To Four-Year Extension

    Giants, Scott Kazmir Agree To Minor League Deal

    Kelvin Herrera Announces Retirement

    Braves Extend Brian Snitker

    Yankees Sign Justin Wilson

    Recent

    Nationals Release Jeremy Jeffress

    AL Notes: White Sox, Angels, Ward, Tigers, Greiner

    NL Injury Notes: Soroka, Mikolas, Kelly, Martinez

    Top Remaining MLB Free Agents

    Pirates Acquire Duane Underwood, Designate Carson Fulmer

    AL West Notes: Seager, Bregman, Lowrie, Murphy

    COVID Notes: 3/7/21

    Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

    Astros’ Forrest Whitley Suffering From Right UCL Sprain

    Quick Hits: Cishek, Souza, Herrera

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Kris Bryant Rumors
    • Jackie Bradley Jr. Rumors
    • Jake Odorizzi Rumors
    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Go Ad-Free
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • 2020-21 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions
    • 2020-21 MLB Free Agent Tracker
    • 2020-21 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2021-22 MLB Free Agent List
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2021
    • 2021 MLB Arbitration Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Indians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    ad: 160x600_MLB

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • Feeds by Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    hide arrowsFOX Sports Engage Network scroll to top
    Close

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version