NOV. 6, 4:07pm: It more or less goes without saying, but Justin Upton will also get a QO, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets.
11:35am: The Padres are indeed planning to make the qualifying offer to Kennedy, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
NOV. 4: The Padres are leaning toward extending a one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to free-agent right-hander Ian Kennedy, reports Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. An official decision won’t be announced until shortly before the 5pm ET deadline for qualifying offers this Friday, but Lin calls a QO a “likely” outcome for Kennedy.
Previous reports have indicated that the Padres weren’t 100 percent set on the offer. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports noted in mid-October that Padres people were considering making one, but rival executives remained skeptical.
From our vantage point at MLBTR, Kennedy’s a natural qualifying offer candidate on the heels of a solid season. While he logged an alarming 7.15 ERA through the season’s first two months, Kennedy rebounded with a 3.41 ERA and an outstanding 137-to-38 K/BB ratio over his final 129 1/3 innings of the season, leaving him with a 4.28 ERA in 168 1/3 innings on the season. Dating back to 2011, Kennedy ranks 14th of 278 qualified starters with 1175 innings, topping the marks of free-agent peers such as Yovani Gallardo and Mike Leake.
Kennedy figures to reject the qualifying offer in favor of a multi-year deal, and it seems possible that there’s a four-year pact waiting for him on the open market. A three-year deal would seem to be a virtual certainty for Kennedy from where I sit, although even if the market completely collapsed on him, he’d still be able to find a one-year deal worth more than $10MM, as Ervin Santana did prior to the 2014 season with the Braves.
Yep. Since they didn’t trade Kennedy they pretty much HAVE to give him a QO.
Kennedy is not accepting the QO
Even with the QO, Preller really blew it by not trading JUpton
Mmm… that extra draft pick (and the extra cash allotted to pay the signing bonuses of our draftees) has a lot of value. Altho I find it hard to believe that Preller didn’t get better offers for JUp than the draft pick.
Yeah it still confuses me why they did squat at the deadline when it was obvious try weren’t going to contend. There had to have been some team out there that was willing to deal for Upton at least, I know the mets were considering him at the time.
There were teams that were willing to deal for him. The official word was that Preller was “asking too much for him” and “never knew what he really wanted.”
If you assume the Mets were offering more or less the same thing for Upton that they traded to Detroit, I’m not sure I would value Fulmer over the pick and slot allocation.
Fulmer’s a top 100 prospect with pedigree, stuff, and a better Minor League track record than the vast majority of supplemental picks. It’s hard to understand why you think Fulmer, a guy close to MLB-ready, would be worth less than a supplemental pick.
I’ve watched him throw a few times and I’m not sold on his durability to stay in the rotation. Totally get that generally, you’d favor a former #44 pick who’s in the back of the Top 100 at Double-A already over the ~34 overall pick next June, but I don’t think he massively outweighs the pick and money either.
IKennedy, considering the Pads drafting history
Kennedy had a -0.4 bWAR and a 0.8 fWAR, meaning he was worth somewhere between ZERO and $6 million. Since 2013 he has a CUMULATIVE 1.0 bWAR. He has been worth about as much in 3 seasons as Brandon Morrow was in 5 games in terms of his contribution to the Padres winning games. With those facts in mind, why would the Padres even consider taking a chance that he would break tradition and accept a QO. He certainly wont get $15.8 million for 2016 anywhere and he wont get much at all considering the other team has to give up a 1st round draft pick that has more value than Kennedy does.
Ervin Santana was coming off seasons in which he put up 2.9 bWAR in 2013 and 1.2b WAR in 2014. Comparing the $14.1 million (not $10 million) deal Santana got from the Twins with what Kennedy is worth now is comparing apples to rotten tomatoes.
I would be amazed if Kennedy is signed on opening day if some team has to give up a draft pick to get him. Yes, he may get a 3 year deal, but its not going to be that much more than the $15.8 million total for the 3 years. I could see some team giving him 3 years and $21-$24 million and hoping he rebounds to at least be worth that much.
It will be some team that doesn’t have to give up its first rounder and who had already signed a higher level free agent requiring giving up. A 2nd rounder.
Even so, knowing you have already sacrificed your 1st round pick, would you give up your second for this guy? He is a 3rd starter for a poor team at best. I don’t think I would. You could probably trade a weak prospect and get a better return.
I’ll tell you why. It’s because we really don’t have a choice since we didn’t trade him at the deadline. To not extend him a QO would be to let him leave while we get absolutely nothing.
I think Kennedy will surprise us by doing just fine in free agency this winter. Scott Boras is a good agent and when Kennedy is on, he’s REALLY on. There are teams with protected picks and teams that will have already lost their first rounder for signing another QO’d free agent so they wouldn’t have to give up their first rounder to sign Kennedy.
There is absolutely no chance he takes the QO and whether or not anyone signs him after he declines it doesn’t matter at all. In the event that no one signs him we are in the same position we would have been in if we hadn’t given him the QO. He can’t come back and accept it later if no one offers him a good enough deal.
No one on planet Earth thinks Kennedy will get a multi-year deal for $15.8m a year but he could easily get a total guarantee approaching $30m. Baseball players will take the higher total guarantee over the higher AAV 99% of the time.
Kennedy will make at least $40M this winter.
You have more faith in the stupidity of GMs around the league than I do. Kennedy has been worth 1.0 WAR over the past 3 seasons combined. That means in 3 years as a Padre, he has been worth paying him a TOTAL of $8 million. If the Padres DONT extend a QO Kennedy may get a 3 year deal with $8 million as an AAV, but he is certainly not worth any more. That is about $8 million more than the QO for one year. The QO will KILL his value on the free agent market.
It didn’t kill Santana and Cuddyer’s values.
Either way, if you know a player isn’t going to take the QO, there is absolutely no reason not to extend him one. We already know that Boras isn’t going to let Kennedy take the QO.
You’re mistaking whose stupidity is on display in that evaluation of what he will get paid. [HINT: it’s not the guys who are paid to understand the business and sport of baseball who will pay Kennedy multiples of what you are suggesting. ]
You can keep writing the same incorrect drivel as many times as you’d like. You still are incorrect.
What part is incorrect? The fact that Kennedy only had a 1.0 WAR over the past 3 seasons combined? Or the fact that each point of WAR is worth $8 million so Kennedy has been worth $8 million to the Padres over the past 3 seasons? Or the fact that Kennedy has about the same value to winning in 3 years that Morrow did in 5 games? Or the fact that a QO kills the value of most players in free agency? Or the fact that the largest crop of free agent starting pitchers in history will drive down the price of mediocre starters like Kennedy? Which FACT is wrong?
disgruntledreader Instead of answering you downvote my post. Can’t answer can you? That is because I was correct.
Most of the things I posted on this thread are stats. By definition, stats are the facts. The rest are based on facts. The fact that this offseason we have the largest crop of free agent starters and by far the best crop of free agent starters in history. Law of supply and demand = Kennedy and every other non-all star will be worth less than in other years. The fact that WAR has been a very accurate indicator of what a player will be paid in free agency. Except in the cases of a few very top free agents, bWAR has not missed by more than a $1.5 million AAV in predicting future free agent contracts. The draft pick compensation attached to a QO offer has meant many players have not signed a deal until opening day or later and even those that do sign earlier often received a one year deal for less than the QO. Kendrys Morales, Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew, Ervin Santana are all examples from last year of one or both of those effects of receiving a QO. Kennedy certainly fits in that same “tweener” category of player.
I enjoy intelligent discourse about baseball, but it seems that all you have done is try to insult people without actually discussing baseball at all. Just personal attacks. I feel truly sad for you feel that you have to stoop to such a level, especially on a forum such as this.
If you have actual intelligent arguments as to why those facts I stated are wrong, please post them. I would love to see them and debate them. If not, please cool it with the personal attacks. They only serve to make you look bad, not to change my opinion or change the facts.
Actually either someone else downvoted you or I did it accidentally on my phone.
You’ve had three different people explain multiple times why your reading of this situation is wrong multiple times in the last month. You simply have chosen to ignore it, so I’ve stopped bothering to repeat it.
The first half of your prediction (no way they’d offer it) has been proven wrong. The second half (he’ll accept it) will be within the week.
Whom? I dont see any. No one questioned even one of those facts. I said they SHOULDNT offer it, not they wouldn’t. Go back and check.
It seems an absolute no brainer to give him one.
He’ll clearly reject, so take the pick and move on.
Players like Kennedy are are perfect fit for the Tigers, who still think of themselves as contenders and have a protected top 10 pick. They may be able to push his price tag down some because of the QO and get a good deal.
The supply of good pitchers is huge this offseason. Not everyone will get paid what they think they deserve.
Kennedy will certainly reject so they might a well give him one in order to get the draft pick.
If I am Kennedy I jump at that QO. Even if he signs a 3 year deal I can’t imagine it being over 12-13 mil a year. I resign, come out with guns blazing next season, then look for a 3-4 year at 16/20 per season.
It’s a LOT easier to leave $25M on the table when it’s not your money to leave on the table! 🙂 There’s a reason players prefer total contract amount, not AAV…
Very true. Thankfully, I will never have that problem. My paychecks make me a multi-hundredaire every couple of weeks and it will probably stay the same for another 20 years.
If he comes out guns blazing he will just get another QO next year. I actually agree with you though. I think Kennedy should accept the QO if he is given one. He could put up the same season next year as he did this year and he will receive a bigger contract because the free agent pitching market is going to be pretty thin. Worse case he gets another QO which he accepts and essentially winds up with a 2 year $32ish million contract. He can accept this year which would be pretty much betting on himself and then follow in Scherzer’s footsteps and get an insurance policy on his arm. I am not so sure he gets the 3/$30+ million with a QO attached to him this year. There are just too many other options available this year. From my best guess I would say he is about the 14th best option for a free agent starting pitcher this year. Others will surely have him higher but since he has been pitching in Petco the last couple of years I expected better performance. If I am giving up a 1st or 2nd round pick I would like to get at least a Lackey or a Samardzija not Ian Kennedy.
If I’m Kennedy I take the QO this year then decline it next year because next year’s FA pitching market is REALLY thin and he’ll be 31. By that point it’s time to go for that multi-year deal. Jeff Samardzija should do the same.
In other news about difficult decisions made at 19 Tony Gwynn Drive today, it’s been announced that they’re ordering lunch from Las Cuatro Milpas, not Taco Bell.
Preller doesn’t need burritos, he eats shredded printer paper for breakfast.
As a Padre, Kennedy has a CUMULATIVE 1.0 WAR. Thats an $8 million value over 3 seasons. Why would you offer him $15.8 for one season? He won’t get much more than that if he signs a 3 year deal somewhere else. I would be willing to bet he signs a 3 year deal for less than $24 million. Because his market value is so low right now, he might just say “OK, I’ll take the QO and try to re-establish my value by having a better year in Petco and SD.”
Among the many ways your argument is flawed… if you’re going to use rWAR instead of fWAR, you should probably NOT use the $/WAR numbers from Fangraphs… You should already know this at this point, but fWAR in the 3-year window is 4.9.
I’ll take you up on the wager though, payable with a flight from your favorite SD craft brewer.
Obviously I’ve never had 30M+ being thrown at me, but from a logical standpoint, wouldn’t it be smarter for Kennedy to accept the QO (if he is confident he can AT LEAST a repeat season). Next year’s FA market is so incredibly thin after Stras and Cashner. He could very possibly end up as the 3rd best SP on the market
War or no war – this day in age it’s hard to find SP’s that throw 200 innings, decent ERA and solid K/9… That keeps your team in most ganes… He’ll likely reject and get around $30m which out of California will net him more after taxes