Here are a few notes on the Braves’ trade of Andrelton Simmons and Jose Briceno to the Angels for Erick Aybar, Sean Newcomb and Chris Ellis.
- Simmons’ departure is a tough pill for Braves fans, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution writes. Simmons was a regular and was signed for several more seasons, and there was a good possibility he would make a brilliant defensive play in any given game. Simmons is the best defensive shortstop since Ozzie Smith, O’Brien says, and there’s a parallel between the Simmons deal and the Padres’ regrettable decision to trade Smith in December 1981 after four years in San Diego as a light-hitting infielder. O’Brien also notes that the Simmons deal is likely to make the Braves less competitive as they open their new ballpark in 2017.
- The Braves’ rebuild will likely be painful in the short term, but is more likely to reap rewards in the long term than a more cautious approach, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes (Insider only). The Braves’ series of trades leaves them not only with a big collection of prospects, but also with the third overall draft choice next year and likely another top pick in 2017. The Braves are now at a low point in their rebuilding efforts (although perhaps not the lowest point, as Olney notes). The Cubs’ and Astros’ 2015 seasons, though, demonstrate the potential rewards of completing the task ahead.
- Braves GM John Coppolella says the team made the deal reluctantly, writes MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. “We didn’t want to trade Andrelton Simmons,” Coppolella says. “But we felt this was too good for us to pass up. We felt like we were getting so much talent back in this deal, that if we didn’t make this trade, it would be very tough for us to keep going forward with our plans.” Interestingly, Bowman implies that the Yankees pursued Simmons last offseason and offered a package that included top prospect Luis Severino.
- The Braves’ return for Simmons was merely a decent one, ESPN’s Keith Law writes (also for subscribers). The Angels did give up their top two prospects in Newcomb and Ellis, but they got a player in return who’s so good defensively that he’s valuable even if he doesn’t hit much. Simmons can also help the Angels win now, which is good, because their remaining farm system isn’t much to speak of.
- With the departures of Simmons and Jason Heyward, the Braves seem to be betting against their elite defenders aging well, FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron writes. Cameron finds, however, that great young defenders do tend to lose some defensive value from ages 26 to 30 (the age through which the Braves would have controlled Simmons), but that they compensate for that with stronger offensive performances (much as Smith did after moving from San Diego to St. Louis).
The Cubs/Astros were loaded with impact bats though not pitchers, relying on pitching is much riskier, Hart can still move a lot of it for those impact bats though, but when is he going to start? The Braves have been fairly unlucky with young arms and TJ’s along with shoulder problems too.
I think he should wait a year so they can evaluate those young arms see how they perform and determine their worth a little better. My understanding is catching and outfield are their priorities they should hit up the yankees about gary sanchez and gardner for that teheran
Outfield is not the issue with the Braves. The major issues with the Braves are the bullpen and 3B. 2B could become an issue if Jace Peterson doesn’t improve.
We have plenty of young arms though none have consistently proven to be an ace. We need to have a dominant #1 starter to solidify the rotation. If Newcomb can live up to comparisons (Mark Bowman compared him to Jon Lester) then it will lessen the blow of the Simmons trade. This also puts pressure on Ozzie Albies to mature quickly.
Braves don’t need outfielders at the moment. Markakis has RF locked and CF is set with Maybin for now and Mallex Smith in the future. LF will be taken up by Hector Olivera so we are set there.
Our need is for the bullpen, 3B, and catcher. An ace pitcher would be nice but the other areas of need are far more pressing. If Newcomb can be an ace like Jon Lester (Mark Bowman compared the two) then it softens the blow but it was a poor return for a major trade piece.
Our bullpen was horrible this last year and cost us a lot of games. That has to be our #1 priority. We also don’t have a future 3B at the moment. Rio Ruiz, who we got in a trade for Gattis, had a major setback last year in production and barring a miracle he isn’t in the future of the team. Austin Riley was just drafted this past year but he won’t be ready until 2018 at least. Which means we have 2 years without an everyday 3B.
Catcher is also a big priority. AJ can’t handle the everyday role for much longer. He was supposed to be a backup. Bethancourt isn’t working out and again, barring a miracle, he doesn’t seem to be in our future. So that means we have to get an everyday backstop QUICK. The issue with the Simmons trade is that it didn’t do anything to help those major areas of need.
Were? loaded….. Cubs system is still stacked.
Yes, the Astros and especially the Cubs relied on impact bats for their respective rebuilds. The Mets relied on impact arms during their rebuild. Seeing as how the Mets made it to the World Series by going through the Cubs I would argue that although risky, impact pitching will usually get you farther than impact bats. Another case in point was this year’s Blue Jays team. Far and away the most stacked offensive team in baseball. Yet, they could not find an answer for the Royals bullpen.
Eh, the Mets have just gotten incredibly lucky when it concerns their pitching prospects. Syndergaard and Harvey have both hit their ceilings, and DeGrom just kinda came outta nowhere. I’m not taking anything away from the Mets’ player development system, but it’s rare to see such a group of young pitchers hit their potential like this.
Pitchers, especially pitching prospects, are volatile creatures, and as you pointed out, the approach that the Braves are taking is incredibly risky. Yes, it may pay off in big ways, but it could be an utter disaster as well.
The 2018-19 Braves starting rotation should be similar to the 2015 Mets rotation assuming they keep all these arms to develop. The smart thing to do however, might be to flip some pitching prospect depth for position players.
Mets rotation is outstanding but look at the Mets as a whole it is a very volatile team, inning counts and they needed a monumental collapse from the Nationals + one of the greatest half seasons ever from Cespedes, Mets went further than the Astros or Cubs but which teams are people picking to compete long term, I don’t think it is the Mets.
Well you can’t predict baseball but speculation aside I see what you mean however their rotation is so good they’re almost guaranteed winning seasons for years to come. Their only gaping holes are middle infield so it will be interesting to see how they fill those holes, however, I’d rather have strong pitching and average offense than strong offense and average pitching. At least Mets pitching will give the offense opportunity to win day in and day out. What good is scoring 5 runs a game if you let up 6 it’s easier to try and win 3-2 every day than to try and win 6-5 every day.
But the problem is with Cespedes/Murphy leaving they’re having to rely on Conforto, Duda, Wright, d’Arnaud to produce, which they haven’t done consistently. That offense goes back from decent to just bad with another Wright injury. And it’s not like they have their bullpen to fall back on, it’s as volatile as anyone’s.
Conforto and dArnaud are new on the scene the potential is definitely still there. They also have pieces to trade for ML bats. Volatile right now? Sure, completely screwed? No, they will compete trust that.
Conforto and d’Arnaud? Why would say “rookies haven’t produced consistently” when we all know sample scales exist?
Obviously they’re young and have a small sample size, but my statement still stands: they have not produced consistently to think their offense will be any better than what it was by midseason this year, when they had to acquire Kelly Johnson, Uribe, Cespedes. And the sky is still blue.
The guys in the Braves pitching glut — except for Newcomb — are nowhere near the talent level of the Mets guys. They’re all 3-4 starter types.
I can see how you might say that only because the Mets pitchers have developed already and the Braves pitchers have not, but most of the Braves acquisitions are high-ceiling pitchers, many of which were taken in the first rounds of their drafts: Touissaint, Allard, Sims, Fried (recovering from TJ), Banuelos (recovering from surgery), Tyrell Jenkins, etc. Sure, I don’t expect our rotation to be Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz 2.0, but we don’t need it to be. I will say, seeing the makeup/early returns of Newcomb, Allard makes me think they are really special, regardless of how great Toissaint, Jenkins and the rest are.
Let’s not forget that DeGrom wasn’t supposed to be anything more than a 3/4 starter. With all of the arms Atlanta has stockpiled, 1 or 2 are bound to become TOR pitchers. Plus, some of them will surely become trade bait or solid bullpen arms in the near future (Wisler, Folty)
I loved Newcomb as a prospect, but Simmons is the type of player you give him up for. He’s right in the middle of his prime, signed to a team friendly deal through his prime and we didn’t have any other option ready to replace Aybar after this year. As long as the Angels spend some money this offseason, the trade was a good decision imo. I do think Newcomb will be special though.
Boy, I just don’t know. If I were a Braves fan I would have some serious concerns over trading the best defensive SS in the game, probably in the past decade at least. Have to wonder now if they will ship Freddie away too. Have a lot of friends who are die hard Braves fans and they were disappointed in the Simba move, but if Freddie is traded away they will be even more upset.
They were probably in the same boat when Heyward was traded then. This is the same overreaction that happened almost exactly one year to the day. Patience is not one of our strong suits. Constantly going to the playoffs for the duration of your childhood-college creates a sort of entitlement complex that demands immediate satisfaction and dividends. I suffered from it for quite some time.
But I’m also realistic. There’s a reason Hart is stacking up on arms. Medlen and Beachy were gone. Minor has had one good season so far and was on the DL. We had next to no MLB ready pitchers in the Minors. Finally, if they dont trade him this offseason then this is Teherans last chance.
Fans want to keep the band together. That band was a mess with only Kimbrel, Simmons, Freeman and Gattis locked up. I for one do not want to rely on a possibly broken Mike Minor, second TJ Medlen, Second TJ Beachy, and Teheran who keeps going back and forth between a 1,2,3 starter.
Once Hart makes another move that paints a clearer picture people will stop overreacting.
Also you don’t rank a kid in the top 20 when he’s got a walk rate of 5.0 per 9 unless you think he’s got it. Roger McDowell works wonders.
I like Teheran, but I love that he’s locked up at a reasonable rate and even if he only pitches to be a SP3, we have some assurances that the extension is still a decent deal, which might actually help his trade value down the road if he can rebound. I really, really like the makaeup of Allard, Newcomb, Touissaint, and Jenkins. Sure, I didn’t mention Fried and Wisler, which they could actually be some of the best, but we’ve got a few that could be special.
Well ‘layercake’ if memory serves me correct, while the Heyward trade was a shock to the system for we Braves fans, I don’t think that the feedback from it was anywhere near as negative as it is & will continue to be, from this Simmons transaction. At least not from my personal point of view or more importantly, from what I have read & heard from America’s so-called baseball ‘experts’ either.
Obvious reasons too. Heyward was a free agent to be and Simmons is a Locked up defensive star.
They Heyward deal was great for both teams and paid dividends for both.
The Simmons trade, unless Aybar is brilliant this year (doubt) will be scrutinized every time Simmons does well or Newcomb has a poor game.
The Braves brass simply don’t hold defensive value as high as others do. They figured Simmons would only get worse and sold him for a top prospect plus another decent one.
Ellis would’ve slot in at 7 for the Braves but with Newcomb entering as well slots in at 8 in a farm that doesn’t have huge top talent but is very deep with quality prospects. It isn’t a bad deal, especially since they ideally wouldn’t be contending until 2018 anyway.
The trade isn’t horrible for the Braves except for one HUGE aspect: you don’t trade a star player that’s controlled for cheap, ever!
It’s the type of contract and player they hope Olivera will be, just defensive instead of offensive.
Braves just don’t value defense as much as these experts do. Not saying I like the trade, I love Simba. I just understand why the Braves pulled the trigger on the deal.
This is no way like the Heyward deal. However, you’re missing a few things. You don’t even mention Chris Ellis – LAA’s #2 prospect. And Aybar can easily be flipped for someone else at the All-Star Break with how shallow the SS market is, not to mention his reputation as a leader/gamer. You also don’t factor in the $53 million savings from Simmons’s deal coming off the books. Yes, that would have been a good deal, but that’s more that goes into the treasure chest to be able to rebuild an offense that wouldn’t have been helped much by Simmons’s bat. I actually think this FO (Hart/Coppy) put more emphasis on defense than Wren did – though Wren inherited Simmons/Heyward, 2 of possibly the greatest defensemen in MLB. It’s really about balance, and if you can sacrifice some defensive runs saved at SS for better future pitching (Newcomb, Ellis), more money to plug holes, and a decent SS stopgap and possible offensive upgrade in Aybar (especially when your top position prospect is a SS), why wouldn’t you do it if you’re rebuilding?
A lot of us were not in that boat with Heyward. Honestly, his Defense was awesome in R. field, but the bat never seemed to come back around after the season he hit 27 homers. Part of the problem could have been the way he was marketed. You remember the braves talking about the nets they had to install in spring training because of all the power he had. Then his very 1st AB he hits a shot into the bullpen. That kind of stuff is hard to live up to. That’s why he was never offered a contract extension like Freeman and Simmons.
I think Simmons will thrive offensively in Anaheim. I can see him hitting a ton of doubles down that left field line. I see him as maybe a .275/15-20hrs/35-40doubles guy in Anaheim
If he hits 250 and gets on base 35 percent of the time the trade is still worth
Simmons is never going to be a .250/.350 hitter. Ever.
He just doesn’t walk enough for that. If he hits .250, his OBP most likely tops out at .310. As it stands right now, he’ll at least have to hit in the high .280s to even approach a .350 OBP.
His stats don’t suggest that…at all. If he can hit .240 and add a handful of more doubles, then he’d be an elite SS. .275 is definitely a reach.
I see Simmons as hitting as well as Brendan Ryan in his prime moving to the AL West – pitcher park central.
The Angels’ stadium is among the worst offensive parks in baseball. So, no.
Angels stadium is great for line drive hitters. The gaps are decently big, so I really hope they add Heyward versus the rest of the expensive outfielders. He’d fit well in their stadium.
Yankees offered severino last year and the braves said no. Lol, they messed up
Yeah I agree, Severino is massively better a prospect than Newcomb, who I don’t like much at all due to his control issues.
I dunno about that. I don’t like Severino’s body type as far as aging well or staying healthy goes. Newcomb is a much more typical SP horse. There have been a few, like Pedro, who have done it at Severino’s 6′ 195 lb, but more have declined quickly as the innings pile up. Doesn’t help that Severino has a fairly violent delivery. I think I’d take Newcomb.
I like Newcomb — I’m fine with the deal especially if Aybar rebounds from 2015 and Chris Ellis is anything. Even then, they doesn’t count what ATL can do with the cost savings of Simmons’ contract.
They don’t save anything on his contract and it was an incredibly team friendly deal.
Have you watched severino at all?
Too early to tell, but if Severino can continue developing his …yup, they will regret saying no.
Its been report that feeds is up set again like last season mad brave have been talking to other teams about both Freddy and Julio and I would blame them if they want out I would to what there doing is not for good I can say for ever 1 ” can’t miss prospect that make it I can give you 20 that end up being bust ” I’ve been Braves fan for over 30 years and I live though 80’s and I so tired of hearing that the Atlanta is transit city so that why they can’t be top team I live most of my life in Washington, D.C. Area and D.c is transit city so is la New York and Chicago is just com out to say this and ever body mite say it TV deal well first of there all way outs they have to want to. And when it come to the new stadium well I would say it easer to feel up new stadium if you have team that play off team that fan can get behind them a young team that fans don’t know the player . The plans that hart and copp have is not good one if these young player they trade for so not pan out they set Braves back for 10 years . The problem is we need owners that want to win not the bottom line because what owner need to now it takes money to make money of you don’t have fan base that will go to the games and buy the merchandise and eat the food it doesn’t matter what pay row is and what the TV contract is you will alway loss money the problem is if you don’t have pay row more then 130 to 170 million you can’t extend you play off runs look at history of team that make playoff every year Boston giant cards Yankee angels ranger tiger and this season blue jays you see that team that have pay row are 120 . And when it come to Braves trying to find next smoltz glavine Avery justice gant mercur Blasier Lopez Lemke chipper a jones Jelske .The answer is we draft them dev them the only ex is smoltz who we did trade for from tigers but smoltz was A ball blazer and we finish dev are way you taken chance trade for others that we trade for and when it come to all these great player I can make you several that were Tyler Houston Terran wade mike kelly Damon hollins George Lombard Damien moss Melvin Nieves Wilson betemit Andy marte Kelly Mann rest of player we traded to San Diego in Fred mcgriff trade or the player we trade to Oakland in Hudson trade so there is bigger risky in trading for prospect then drafting them so I hope as long time Braves I’m wrong but there better chance they will not turn out what we wanted and what sucks is if we not traded Teixera to the angel we mite have end up with trout since that pick angel
What
I think in 2 years people will be saying how the Braves won this trade or worse case scenario it was a draw. I just don’t see Simmons making any dramatic changes at the plate. I could be wrong though. We shall see. I mean it would have to be VERY dramatic going from a pathetic .300 OBP guy to a more respectable .340 guy. That’s like asking a guy to go from a .250 hitter to a .290 hitter…… which if Simmons doesn’t start taking more walks is exactly the bump he’ll need in his BA to get to a .340 OBP. Or if he suddenly develops power. In his limited minor league stint he really didn’t have much power then either, and when I say not much I mean to the tune of 6 HRs in 930 minor league ABs. Yeah. Kind of shocking though that when he was in the minors he was a 20+ SB threat, easily. Once he got called up though the speed didn’t come with. 54 SBs and 24 CS in 237 minor league games….. compared to 16 SB and 13 CS in 499 MLB games. Only thing he has going for him at the plate is he doesn’t strike out much….. but that is meaningless when you take even fewer walks. Only 184 strike outs in 1,999 big league PAs/1,847 ABs……… but only 123 BBs. That’s about 55 Ks to 37 BBs. Like this piece said, defense erodes a lot quicker…. usually, than hitting. So if he manages to maintain a starting gig past 2-3 more seasons and his well above average defense falls to “just” above average defense and he’s still a guy struggling to hit .250 and get on base 30% of the time he’ll be riding the bench. ONLY thing he has going is his defense. VERY hard to make a career solely based off that. Only player to come to mind who did is Ozzie Smith, but at least he’d hit over .260 and get on base 33% of the time…… and had 40+ SB speed. Brooks Robinson as well I guess. .267 career hitter with only a .322 OBP…….. but he could hit 20 HRs a year and drive in 100 RBIs. Simmons has shown none of these “bright sides” on offense. Again, Simmons is still young so things can change. I just haven’t seen anything yet to make me think they will.
When you’re as good defensively as Simmons is, you get a pass on the offense. If anything, they just need to get him to stop swinging for the fences on every swing.
Slow his swing down, make contact. Put him in the #8 spot and let him be a defensive wizard.
Problem is, FG wants to bat him #2 and expect him to drive in 100 runes. That’s now who he is. But, FG makin’ more mistakes, who’d have thought that..
With as bad an offense as they’ve had, no one gets a pass. What if you sacrifice some SS defense to get better in offense both in the short-term (Aybar – who is more consistent offensively), and long-term (Albies), not to mention use the $50M+ in other ways. Seitzer did a great job with Simmons this year in terms of contact hitting, but 4 HR…seriously? FG really screwed with Simmons, agreed.
We’re playing for the future? Stock piling talent? Then why gut our major league roster for 30 year old “third basemen” who have never played in the majors? While giving away our middle infield prospects. There’s just no continuity in our decisions here.
Mets have a fantastic rotation but it needs a offense now that cespy and Murphy are leaving. Hate to say it Mets fans but I think their best bet would be trying to trade one of your beloved rotation arms for a top of the line batter. Such as maybe Cruz, JD Martinez, Ect…..