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Luis Severino

Latest On Luis Severino

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Luis Severino is schedule to take the mound for the mound for the Athletics later today, and he certainly seems to be relieved that this start will come on the road. Severino recently went public with criticism of the team’s stadium situation. After departing the Coliseum in Oakland at the end of the 2024 campaign, the A’s have temporarily moved into Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento, the home of the Triple-A Sacramento River Cats. Severino compared the feeling of pitching at his current home ballpark to a Spring Training game, as noted by Brendan Kuty of The Athletic.

“Because we play in a big-league stadium on the road,” Severino said when asked why his road splits are significantly stronger than his home numbers, as relayed by Kuty. “We don’t have that at home right now. It’s not the same. It’s not the same atmosphere. We don’t have a lot of fans. Our clubhouse is in left field. So, when we play day games, we have to just be in the sun. There’s no air conditioning there, too. It’s really tough.”

If those home/road splits are anything to go by, it’s hard to disagree with Severino that he’s been impacted by the new stadium situation. The right-hander has looked solid in seven road starts with a sparkling 2.27 ERA, but that same figure balloons up to 6.79 when looking at his ten starts in Sacramento. Aside from the criticism Severino mentioned in the above quote, it’s undeniably that Sutter Health Park heavily favors hitters. According to Statcast, it has an overall park factor of 112 this year, making it the most offense-friendly ballpark in the majors ahead of Coors Field (111) and Camden Yards (110). The environment is only likely to improve further for hitters as the summer continues, with temperatures sure to continue rising in a park that has little protection from the sun.

Severino’s comments seem to have been noticed by Athletics brass, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Nightengale writes that the A’s “can’t wait” to trade Severino after his recent comments about the ballpark in Sacramento. For a 34-51 ballclub like the A’s, a seemingly unhappy veteran starting pitcher who might welcome a change of scenery would seem like a no-brainer as a trade candidate on the surface. That’s especially true given the fact that many clubs, even including some buried in the standing like the Orioles, are still holding out hope that they might be able to fight their way back into the postseason picture before the season comes to a close. That lack of surefire sellers is sure to limit the supply of quality arms on the market, and it’s easy to see why the A’s might want to take advantage.

With all of that being said, there’s some very clear obstacles standing in the way of a Severino trade actually coming together. Severino’s numbers are undeniably lackluster, with a 4.83 ERA and 4.00 FIP to this point in the season, While his ERA is much better on the road, his already weak 15.5% strikeout rate is actually even lower (12.9%) on the road this year. He’s also posting the lowest ground ball rate of his career, and his 7.7% home run to fly ball ratio is far below his career norms in spite of calling the bandbox that is Sutter Health Park home. Severino’s 4.73 SIERA is the seventh-worst figure among qualified starters this year, and rival clubs would be justified in proceeding cautiously regarding the righty.

Poor performance by itself isn’t enough to make a player an unrealistic trade candidate. Plenty of clubs are willing to buy low on players they think they could help turn things around, happy to pay a lower acquisition cost and bank on their own internal development to make up the difference in quality. That figures to be a much tougher sell with Severino specifically due to the nature of his contract. He’s set to make around $10MM for the remainder of the 2025 campaign, which is already a hefty price to pay for clubs with limited payroll space available. He’s then due $25MM guaranteed for 2026 and holds a $22MM player option for the 2027 season on top of that.

Perhaps taking on upwards of $57MM in salary over the next two-and-a-half seasons could be worth it for a team with money to spend and confidence that they can turn Severino into a reliable, playoff-caliber starter, but if Severino is healthy and successful in 2026 he’d be likely to simply opt out of the 2027 campaign entirely for another bite at the apple in free agency. It seems very unlikely that there will be a significant number of teams interested in taking on Severino for more than a marginal return without the A’s eating substantial money on the deal, and it’s unlikely that a team with competitive aspirations in the medium term and a $78MM payroll in 2025 (per RosterResource) would have much interest in taking on dead money.

Even if there was a deal to be made, it’s an open question whether or not it would actually behoove the A’s to make it. After all, A’s brass acknowledged outright that convincing free agents to join a club that had averaged more than 102 losses over the previous three years and would play the next few seasons in a minor league ballpark was a tough sell. That’s likely a big part of the reason they made such a lavish offer to Severino in the first place. It’s hard to imagine the A’s being able to replace him via free agency this winter following what looks to be another unsuccessful season where high-profile players like Severino, Zack Wheeler, and Carlos Correa have criticized the ballpark conditions and pitchers have seen first-hand what a difficult environment the park creates for pitchers. All of that makes a Severino deal seem unlikely even before considering the fact that the A’s would reportedly risk a grievance if their luxury tax payroll for 2025 were to fall below $105MM, a threshold which they would fail to clear if they traded Severino without retaining substantial salary.

AL West Notes: Severino, Pena, Langford

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The Athletics are playing all of their games for the next few years at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento while they wait for their stadium in Las Vegas to be constructed. It’s been expected from the very beginning that playing in a minor league stadium would be an adjustment for the players, and before the season began there were issues raised by the MLBPA that resulted in a brief scuffle over whether the park would have grass or synthetic turf. Even with concessions such as the use of grass, however, some players were bound to find the change jarring.

According to Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, Luis Severino is one such player. Severino has performed much better on the road this year, with a 2.27 ERA in seven road starts as compared to a 6.79 ERA in ten starts at Sutter Health Park. When asked about the discrepancy, Severino was quick to attribute it to the fact that the team gets to play in a traditional MLB stadium when on the road.

“We don’t have that at home right now,” Severino said, as relayed by Kuty. “It’s not the same. It’s not the same atmosphere. We don’t have a lot of fans. Our clubhouse is in left field. So, when we play day games, we have to just be in the sun. There’s no air conditioning there, too. It’s really tough.”

The A’s are expected to remain at Sutter Health Park through the end of the 2027 season, so conditions aren’t likely to change in the short-term. Severino signed with the A’s for three years and $67MM over the winter, and while his deal comes with an opt-out clause after the second season he’s still locked into that contract through the end of the 2026 campaign.

Given Severino’s displeasure with his home ballpark and the Athletics’ lackluster 34-51 record, it’s easy to speculate about the possibility of a trade benefiting all parties. The righty was floated as a possible trade target for the Cubs earlier this week, but there’s plenty of reason to think the A’s might be reluctant to part with Severino considering the struggles they’ve had luring high-dollar free agents into the organization previously. While most clubs would expect to be able to replace a high-dollar veteran they part with in trade via free agency the following winter, it’s not hard to imagine the A’s ballpark situation making free agent pitchers reluctant to sign there.

More from the AL West…

  • Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena was out of the lineup today after getting hit by a pitch in the ribs during yesterday’s game against the Cubs, but manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Athletic) that Pena came in today feeling better after being considered day-to-day yesterday. Espada added that Pena would receive treatment and do light baseball activities but be held out of tonight’s game. That creates reason for optimism he could be back in the lineup for the series finale on Sunday, which would be a huge boost given that Pena has put himself into the MVP conversation with a blistering first half. Mauricio Dubon has filled in at shortstop in Pena’s absence.
  • Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford was placed on the injured list due to an oblique strain yesterday, but MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry writes that both Langford himself and Rangers brass have suggested the issue isn’t a serious one. President of baseball operations Chris Young told reporters that the team having two upcoming days off on the schedule played a role in the decision to send Langford for what the club expects to be a minimum IL stint, and added that the injury was “right on the cusp” of being something they’d just rest Langford on the bench for a few days for. Langford has struggled to a lackluster .224/.286/.342 in June this year, so perhaps a ten-day reset could benefit the 23-year-old in more ways than one. Alejandro Osuna has joined Evan Carter and Adolis Garcia in the regular outfield mix while Langford is out of commission.

Latest On Cubs’ Rotation Targets

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The Cubs are on the hunt for rotation upgrades — a fact that’s both been widely reported and publicly confirmed by president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer. It’s easy enough to see why. Ace Justin Steele was lost for the season due to elbow surgery back in April. Shota Imanaga is returning to the rotation tomorrow, his first start since a hamstring injury sent him to the 15-day IL back on May 4. Javier Assad hasn’t pitched this year due to multiple oblique strains. Young right-hander Ben Brown was optioned to Triple-A yesterday amid ongoing struggles. Swingman Colin Rea, moved into the rotation during that injury deluge, has begun to struggle after initially excelling in a starting role.

Few teams have decided on a deadline direction yet, but Chicago has already been in contact with some clubs that know they’ll operate as sellers. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Cubs have inquired on Marlins right-handers Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that the Cubs also have some interest in Pirates righty Mitch Keller (as well as closer David Bednar). He adds that they’ve kept tabs on A’s righty Luis Severino before quickly downplaying the possibility that the Athletics would actually trade the veteran right-hander in the first season of his three-year, $67MM contract.

There are surely other names on the Cubs’ radar, but the early connections are notable. That’s particularly true on the heels of 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine reporting earlier this week that the Cubs are being aggressive and are hoping to push something across the finish line well ahead of next month’s deadline — perhaps even within the next week to ten days (audio link). Levine suggested that Alcantara was not the likeliest target and that someone a bit more under the radar was more probable.

The Marlins duo stand as obvious trade candidates. Alcantara entered the season as perhaps the most plain-as-day trade candidate in the sport. The 2022 NL Cy Young winner is in his first full season back from a Tommy John procedure that cost him all of the 2024 campaign. He’s earning $17MM this year and next, and the Marlins hold a $21MM club option for the 2027 season.

Alcantara, 29, didn’t do his trade candidacy any favors early on. He pitched to an awful 8.47 ERA through the end of May, striking out only 16.9% of opponents against a 12.2% walk rate along the way. He’s since shown signs of life. Alcantara has pitched 23 innings over his past four starts and allowed a total of seven runs (2.74 ERA) on 18 hits and five walks with 19 strikeouts (20.4 K%, 5.4 BB%). His 46.4% grounder rate in that time is comfortably better than average but a ways from its 53.4% peak. His fastball velocity hasn’t been much of a question all year, averaging better than 97 mph — 97.6 mph over his past four starts. That’s down a slight bit from his 98 mph average pre-surgery, but not by an alarming measure.

If Alcantara can continue distancing himself from that bleak two-month start and continue resembling his 2022 self, the chances of a trade will only increase. Every club with even a glimmer of postseason contention would love to add the two-time All-Star with his ability to its staff, particularly when considering the relatively affordable nature of his salary under the terms of the contract extension he signed a few years back. The asking price on Alcantara figures to be steep, however, and the Marlins may wish to hold him a bit longer to allow him to continue posting improved results and further drum up interest. If that’s the case, the timing may not align with Chicago’s more urgent push for a starting pitcher.

Cabrera, 27, isn’t as well-known as his teammate but was a highly touted pitching prospect himself prior to his big league debut. He’s shown glimpses of that potential in the past, but the 2025 campaign thus far has the makings of a possible breakout. In 59 innings, Cabrera has pitched to a 3.81 ERA with a 24.8% strikeout rate, a 10.2% walk rate and a 42.9% ground-ball rate. He’s averaging a career-best 96.7 mph on his four-seamer, has ramped the usage of his sinker up to a career-high 23% and is throwing more sliders than he has in the past two seasons.

Cabrera entered the 2025 season with 2.147 years of major league service. That was enough for him to reach Super Two designation, meaning he’s already gone through the arbitration process once, coming away with a modest $1.95MM salary. He’ll be owed a raise in each of the next three offseasons before hitting free agency following the 2028 season. He’s nowhere near as established as Alcantara or Keller — Cabrera has never even pitched 100 innings in a big league season — but his power arsenal, low salary and that remaining club control hold obvious appeal.

Turning to the Pirates, Keller is a sensible enough trade candidate, even though the Bucs probably aren’t in a rush to trade him. He’s only in the second season of a five-year, $77MM contract. The former second-round pick and top prospect is earning $15MM this year, and that extension (which tacked four years and $71.6MM onto his previously agreed upon arbitration salary for 2024) calls for salaries of $16.5MM, $18MM and $20MM in the three subsequent seasons.

Keller has appeared in at least 31 games in each of the past three seasons and is on pace to do so again in 2025. He’s started 16 games and totaled 94 innings with a 4.02 ERA, an 18.5% strikeout rate, a 6.1% walk rate and a 45.5% ground-ball rate. That strikeout rate is down from 23.5% he posted in 2023-24, but Keller is getting more grounders and issuing fewer walks than in those seasons. His velocity is down about a half-mile per hour from last year, with his average four-seamer clocking in at 93.9 mph and his average sinker at 92.8 mph. Keller has made some alterations to his pitch selection, throwing his sinker less and his slider at a career-high 34.9% rate. He’s also ditched his cutter and is reincorporating a changuep that he effectively shelved for 2024.

The possibility of an intradivision trade with a player of this caliber is fascinating, if only because it rarely occurs. The Pirates are deep in pitching talent, however, with Paul Skenes anchoring the rotation and Bubba Chandler — perhaps MLB’s top pitching prospect — seemingly ready to go in Triple-A. Bailey Falter is a relative veteran at this point, and the Pirates have a deep stock of additional young arms including Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft, Thomas Harrington and Hunter Barco. Jared Jones underwent Tommy John surgery this summer but looked promising as a rookie last year. Johan Oviedo was a solid fourth starter in 2023 before his own Tommy John procedure. Veteran Andrew Heaney is eating innings in the rotation right now but seems like a lock to be traded before the deadline if he’s healthy.

Whether that depth would be enough to persuade the Pirates to part with Keller is an open question. This is Ben Cherington’s sixth year as Pirates general manager, and the Bucs haven’t won more than 76 games in a season during his tenure. Trading Keller would be more akin to the large-scale rebuilding moves made earlier in his tenure, but if a trade partner were to give up immediate MLB talent, it wouldn’t necessarily indicate a step back. Dealing from a position of strength and then using the money that had been earmarked for Keller to bolster other areas of the staff could make good sense. Of course, given the Pirates’ history, it can’t be assumed that owner Bob Nutting would just pump Keller’s salary right back into the payroll by way of offseason free-agent signings or trade acquisitions.

From the Cubs’ stance, Keller or Alcantara would fit nicely into the payroll (and Cabrera even more so, of course). They’re veterans on the sort of mid-range contracts Cubs ownership seems to prefer with regard to pitchers.

The Cubs only have about $123MM in guarantees on the books next year, though that number will almost certainly rise to $138MM when the team picks up a three-year club option on Imanaga. Even still, that leaves plenty of room for Keller, Alcantara or just about any other rotation target. Assuming that Imanaga option is exercised, he and Dansby Swanson will be the only players signed beyond 2026. The Cubs obviously hope to extend Pete Crow-Armstrong and re-sign Kyle Tucker, but those goals arguably only increase the importance of finding some cost-effective ways to round out the starting staff.

Luis Severino Discusses Offseason Talks With Mets

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Luis Severino is scheduled to start for the Athletics on Sunday when the Mets and A’s face off in Sacramento, and as the veteran righty gets set to face his old team, Severino opened up about New York’s limited pursuit of a reunion last winter when Severino was a free agent.  Severino told SNY and other media members that he had interest in re-signing with the Mets last winter, and said he “told my agent that I’d stay for two years and $40MM.”

This is notably less than the three years and $67MM than Severino received from the Athletics, but the righty was open to the lesser payday.  “I knew it was going to be less money, but I just liked the environment there,” Severino said.  “The trainers were unbelievable, everything there, it was good.  So I was trying to sacrifice more money by staying in a place that I know…I can get better.  But by the end, like I said, I was not in their plans.”

From the Mets’ perspective, the club had some level of interest, though apparently only at an even lesser price.  Severino said he heard from his agent that the Mets’ “only offer they were going to give me was the same deal that they gave [Frankie] Montas.  So I think for me that was not fair.”

New York signed Montas to a two-year, $34MM deal that allows Montas the ability to opt out of the contract following the season.  (Severino’s deal with the A’s also has an opt-out clause following the 2026 season.)  The $17MM average annual value of that contract is also well below the $22.333MM AAV Severino is getting from the Athletics, and also less than the Mets’ one-year, $21.05MM qualifying offer that Severino turned down last fall.

Even if Severino was willing to drop to a $20MM AAV with his proposed two-year, $40MM contract, a further haircut down to $17MM was a bridge too far for the 31-year-old, especially given the interest he was garnering from other teams.  The Cubs and Blue Jays were publicly linked to Severino’s market before he surprised many by joining the low-payroll A’s, whose uncharacteristic spending spree this winter was more than a little related to the team’s desire to post a minimum luxury tax number related to its revenue-sharing recipient status.

Apart from the unique circumstances of the Mets’ record-setting splurge to add Juan Soto, president of baseball operations David Stearns was otherwise relatively measured in his offseason transactions, as evidenced by the lengthy staring contest of a negotiation with Pete Alonso before the slugger returned to the fold.  It could be that Stearns simply didn’t value Severino beyond a particular price point, or that the Mets prioritized Alonso and Sean Manaea (who both also received qualifying offers) moreso than Severino.

The QO perhaps factored into the Mets’ decision process in another fashion, as the Mets ended up down one draft pick overall for the winter despite having three players rejecting QOs.  The compensatory pick the Mets received for Severino ended up being one of the two picks the Mets had to surrender as compensation for signing Soto.  Of course, the club didn’t get any compensation for re-signing their own free agents — Alonso re-upped for two years and $54MM (with an opt-out after this season), and Manaea for a three-year, $75MM deal that contains $23.75MM in deferred money, dropping the current value in terms of luxury tax numbers to roughly $22MM per season.

Severino signed a one-year, $13MM deal with New York in the 2023-24 offseason, which he viewed as a bounce-back contract after several injury-plagued years with the Yankees.  The plan worked out well, as Severino had a solid 3.91 ERA over 182 innings with the Mets that paid off in the form of his three-year commitment from the Athletics.  It proved to be a win from the Mets’ perspective as well, as Severino provided steady rotation work for a team that made the NLCS, and New York even get an extra draft pick back for its investment.

Time will tell if the A’s made a wise move in locking up Severino, or if the Mets made a good call in letting him walk.  In the short term, however, some second-guessing is inevitable since both Manaea and Montas are hurt.  Manaea will be out until late May at the earliest after suffering an oblique strain and then a setback in his rehab, while Montas also figures to be out until roughly mid-May after a lat strain cost him all of Spring Training.  Severino has a modest 4.74 ERA over his three starts in an Athletics uniform, but he is at least healthy and on the mound, whereas the Mets have already had their rotation depth stretched in the early going.

Athletics Finalize Season-Opening Rotation

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The Athletics have finalized their season-opening rotation, reports Martín Gallegos of MLB.com. The five spots will be taken by Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, JP Sears, Osvaldo Bido, and Joey Estes, though not necessarily in that order. Mitch Spence will pitch out of the bullpen, at least to start the season.

There was never much doubt about the first three. Severino has been almost exclusively starter dating back to his 2015 debut. He has had some injury absences and some wobbles in his performance, but he just posted a 3.91 earned run average over 31 starts for the Mets last year. The A’s gave him a three-year, $67MM contract in November, the largest guarantee in franchise history, hoping that he would serve as a veteran anchor for the starting staff.

Springs emerged as a viable rotation candidate with the Rays in 2022, starting the year in relief but eventually posting a 2.46 ERA over 135 1/3 innings. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of the past two seasons but he returned to the Rays last year and had a 3.27 ERA over seven starts. That was enough for the A’s to send three young players and a competitive balance round pick to Tampa in order to acquire Springs and Jacob Lopez. Sears made 64 starts for the A’s over the past two seasons with a combined ERA of 4.46.

The last two spots were a bit more up for grabs. Estes had a decent but not overwhelming season in 2024, his first extended look in the majors. He tossed 127 2/3 innings over 24 starts and one relief appearance with a 5.01 ERA. His 16.9% strikeout rate was well below average but he demonstrated strong control with a 5% walk rate. He’s had a decent spring, with 11 2/3 innings of six-run ball, a 4.63 ERA. He’s only punched out eight opponents but also given out just one walk and hit one batter.

Bido tossed 63 1/3 innings for the A’s last year over nine starts and seven relief appearances with a strong 3.41 ERA. His 10% walk rate was a tad high but his 24.3% strikeout rate was a bit above average. This spring, those rate stats have been similar, as he has struck out 25.4% of batters faced and walked opponents at an 8.5% clip. The 9.24 ERA certainly looks ugly but that’s mostly due to one really bad outing. Against Cleveland on March 7, he tossed 3 1/3 innings and allowed eight earned runs on nine hits, including four home runs, despite notching four strikeouts against just one walk.

Spence was a Rule 5 pick last year and worked out well. He logged 151 1/3 innings over 24 starts and 11 relief appearances with a 4.58 ERA. His 19.4% strikeout rate was subpar but he limited walks to a 6.4% clip and also got grounders at a strong rate of 48.4%. In the small sample of his spring work, his results have backed up slightly. He has only punched out 14% of batters faced while his grounder rate is down to 43.6%.

The spring stats are all miniscule samples but it seems Bido and Estes have edged out Spence for the final two rotation spots. As mentioned, Bido’s 9.24 ERA is rough but mostly inflated by one awful game. Since his strikeout and walk numbers are in line with last year’s, that is probably going to be overlooked as a blip. Estes has broadly posted numbers fairly similar to what he did last year. Spence, meanwhile, has seen his strikeout rate drop from an already subpar level. Again, we’re not talking about meaningful sample sizes here, but the A’s had to make a decision.

A club’s opening-day rosters are only a snapshot in time. Over the course of a long season, things will change and the mix will surely look different over the coming months. That’s especially true on a pitching staff, where injuries are almost inevitable. Spence will be in the bullpen for now but will likely have opportunities to get into the rotation later, as he did last year. The A’s will also have guys like Hogan Harris, J.T. Ginn, Gunnar Hoglund, Ryan Cusick and Lopez jockeying for opportunities. Brady Basso and Ken Waldichuk will start the season on the injured list but could factor into the mix later in the year.

MLBTR Podcast: Winter Meetings Recap

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Athletics Sign Luis Severino

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TODAY: Jon Heyman of the New York Post (via Bluesky) has the breakdown of Severino’s contract.  The $10MM signing bonus is broken up at $5MM next month and $5MM in January 2026.  The righty will earn $15MM this season and $20MM in 2026, so his player option for the 2027 season is worth $22MM.  Severino will also get a $500K assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

DECEMBER 6: The A’s are ready to spend some cash, announcing Friday that they’ve signed free agent righty Luis Severino to a three-year deal — the third year of which is a player option. Severino, a client of Klutch Sports, will reportedly be guaranteed $67MM, to be paid out in the form of a $10MM signing bonus and $57MM in salary over the three seasons. He can opt out of the contract after year two and become a free agent once again in the 2026-27 offseason.

It’ll register as a shock for many to see the nomadic A’s, who will play next year in West Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park (home to the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate), land a notable free agent with a hefty multi-year deal. They’re in the process of relocating to Las Vegas and have been aggressively pursuing free agents in an effort to boost a payroll that entered the offseason without a single contract on the books in 2025. Some free agents — Walker Buehler among them — have entirely dismissed the notion of playing in a minor league facility. Still, with a reported target payroll in the $100MM range, there’s long been a possibility for the A’s to be a surprise player in free agency. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored just such a possibility at length last month.

The general thinking has been that the A’s will need to overpay in order to pursue top-end free agents this winter. The terms of Severino’s contract indeed suggest a clear willingness to spend well beyond market expectations in order to lure free agents to their new home. Severino’s deal includes both a larger guarantee than most anticipated and an opt-out opportunity. Because he rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, Severino will cost the A’s their third-highest pick in next year’s draft. He’ll also net the Mets a compensatory pick, albeit only between the fourth and fifth rounds because of their status as a luxury tax payor.

The $100MM target payroll likely stems from the Athletics’ status as a revenue-sharing recipient. The franchise was stripped of its revenue-sharing benefits last decade after failing to sufficiently utilize those funds to improve the on-field product, as is a stipulated requirement. The 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement restored the A’s as a revenue-sharing recipient, and they’ve since spent modestly in free agency to keep payroll at least in step with the other lowest-spending clubs in the league. The deal with Severino signals a willingness to spend a bit beyond that point. It is, incredibly, the largest contract in franchise history, nominally surpassing the six-year, $66MM contract extension signed by third baseman Eric Chavez more than two decades ago.

[Related: The Largest Contract In Franchise History For Each MLB Team]

Severino, 31, will immediately jump to the top of the A’s rotation. He’s likely ticketed for their Opening Day start, barring another notable acquisition via free agency or trade. He’ll lead a staff that currently projects to also include JP Sears, Mitch Spence and Joey Estes. The A’s have a variety of in-house candidates for the fifth spot, though the Severino deal rather obviously opens the door for GM David Forst to sign/trade for another starter of note to further solidify the bunch.

Severino, of course, looked the part of a budding ace for the Yankees in 2017-18 when he posted 384 2/3 innings with a 3.18 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 45.8% grounder rate in his age-23 and age-24 seasons. The flamethrowing righty averaged better than 97 mph on his heater, recorded a hefty 12.7% swinging-strike rate and generally had the makings of a star. The Yankees agreed, signing him to a four-year, $40MM extension with an option for a fifth season.

That deal bought out all of Severino’s arbitration years and his first free-agent season. At the time, some thought a pitcher with his upside and demonstrated excellence to date was perhaps selling himself short. In the long run, it worked out wonderfully, as injuries frequently kept Severino off the field and rendered him a shell of his former self when healthy enough to take the mound. From 2019-23, Severino managed only 209 1/3 innings in the majors, dealing with multiple lat strains and requiring Tommy John surgery along the way. His 2023 campaign included 89 1/3 frames with a 6.65 ERA.

The 2024 season marked a resurgence for Severino, who inked a one-year, $13MM deal with the Mets on the heels of that injury-plagued finish to his Yankees tenure. The right-hander’s 182 innings nearly matched his total over the five prior calendar years. He logged a 3.91 ERA with a below-average but passable 21.2% strikeout rate and a strong 7.6% walk rate. His 46% ground-ball rate, while not elite, was comfortably north of league average.

At the same time, Severino simply wasn’t the dominant force he was earlier in his career. His average fastball with the Mets was about 1.5 mph off from its peak levels. His 9.4% swinging-strike rate was decidedly below-average — a near mirror-image of his 9.1% mark in that disastrous 2023 season and nowhere close to his career-best 13.3% rate. Opponents made contact on just 81.9% of Severino’s pitches within the strike zone in 2017-18 — league-average was 84.7% — but did so at a whopping 88.2% clip in 2024 (when the league average was 85.2%).

When the Mets signed Severino to his one-year deal, it had the makings of an upside play on a former front-of-the-rotation arm. Last year’s rebound showed that he was healthy but also seemed to further support the notion that his prior ace-caliber form is in the rearview mirror. Severino now has the feel of a third or fourth starter, making his $22.333MM annual salary and an opt-out rather jarring.

Many pundits thought Severino could have — and should have — accepted the Mets’ $21.05MM qualifying offer; he and his agents deserve credit for not simply eclipsing that guarantee in notable fashion but surpassing that number on an annual basis over a lengthy deal that affords him another bite at free agency in the 2026-27 offseason. The contract tops recent guarantees for Chris Bassitt, who was seen as a steady and dependable No. 2-3 arm, and Yusei Kikuchi, whose torrid finish with the Astros made him one of the most sought-after pitchers on this offseason’s market. Both pitchers signed for $63MM over the same three-year term.

For the A’s, a commitment this weighty was likely deemed a necessity to land a mid-rotation arm whose velocity and ground-ball tendencies perhaps create some hope that he can still eke out some incremental improvements over his 2024 form. That said, there’s quite a bit of injury risk still associated with Severino, and fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.21) and SIERA (4.22) were actually more bearish on his 2024 performance than his already solid-but-unspectacular earned run average. There’s little doubt he improves the club and shows that the A’s are serious about spending this winter, but it’s a steep price to pay when taken in totality.

Severino will nevertheless add some credibility to a rotation that was largely lacking it. And the A’s, with a burgeoning core of quality players — Brent Rooker, Mason Miller, JJ Bleday, Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers — could hope that a few subsequent additions and strides from young talents like Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom and Zack Gelof might help them exceed expectations sooner than most thought possible.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the two sides agreed to a three-year, $67MM deal. Yahoo’s Russell Dorsey reported the signing bonus. Passan added details on the opt-out.

A’s Also Made Offer To Sean Manaea

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The Athletics’ three-year, $67MM contract with Luis Severino stunned many baseball fans. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the West Sacramento-bound club hadn’t spent more than $15MM on a free agent since signing Ryan Madson to a three-year, $22MM deal nearly a decade ago. The $67MM guarantee stands as the largest in franchise history, surpassing Eric Chavez’s 20-year record by $1MM. The A’s had signaled that they might be willing to spend in free agency or via trade — MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored the possibilities at length last month — and there were multiple reports that the A’s were aiming for a $100MM payroll. Many still took an “I’ll believe it when I see it approach.”

We’ve now seen it — or at least the early stages of it. It might still feel unusual to say the A’s agreed to sign a player for $22MM+ annual value, but that’s the reality. There are also some indications that the on-the-move A’s could continue to spend. For instance, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the A’s also made a “big” offer to free agent southpaw Sean Manaea, who made his MLB debut with the Athletics after coming over from the Royals in the 2015 Ben Zobrist trade.

That offer came prior to their deal with Severino, Heyman notes. It’s not expressly clear that the A’s would be willing to put forth another competitive offer for an upper-tier free agent like Manaea, but the Severino deal and talk of a $100MM payroll target suggests it’s certainly possible. Even with Severino in the fold, RosterResource projects a modest $58MM payroll. There’s room for another weighty salary to be added to the mix, be it in the form of a free agent, a trade acquisition, or both.

One notable aspect of the reported offer to Manaea: the left-hander, like Severino, rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets at the beginning of the offseason. The A’s seem willing to spend at the expense of next year’s draft pool. Severino cost them their third-highest pick — the standard price paid by a revenue-sharing recipient — and now that they’ve forfeited that selection, the cost to sign an additional qualified free agent is reduced. The A’s surrendered their second-round pick to sign Severino — they pick in the first round and in Competitive Balance Round A, between the first and second rounds — and they’d now “only” need to punt their third rounder to bring in Manaea, Nick Pivetta, Christian Walker or another free agent who turned down the qualifying offer.

The A’s could use more stability in the rotation and have at least one corner outfield opening. They have young options at first base (Tyler Soderstrom), second base (Zack Gelof) and shortstop (Jacob Wilson) — all of them picked in the top two rounds of the draft and all of whom are/were highly touted prospects. There’s more of an opening at third base, where Darell Hernaiz and Max Schuemann likely lead the pack, although Gelof could potentially slide over to third base as well if the A’s want to pursue a second baseman. The bullpen, of course, could use some setup arms behind standout closer Mason Miller. There’s no shortage of areas at which to spend, and it seems the A’s are indeed intent on bolstering payroll ahead of the move to their temporary home at Sutter Home Park.

Free Agent Faceoff: Luis Severino/Nick Pivetta

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The market for starting pitching this winter has moved a bit more rapidly than the rest of free agency so far, with lefties Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi both having already found new homes with the Dodgers and Angels, respectively. This year’s pitching market is characterized by the depth of quality arms available, however, and plenty of solid pitchers still remain available. One quirk of this year’s class is that the vast majority of top-tier, and even mid-tier, starting pitchers received Qualifying Offers. Snell and Kikuchi were both exceptions to that, and other exceptions such as Jack Flaherty and Nathan Eovaldi remain on the table, but the majority of mid-rotation or better arms available this winter are attached to draft pick compensation.

The volume of QO pitchers is helped by the fact that three somewhat surprising arms were extended the QO this winter. Those three pitchers are Luis Severino, Nick Pivetta, and Nick Martinez. While Martinez opted to accept the QO and stick with the Reds on a one-year deal worth north of $21MM, both Pivetta and Severino opted to reject the QO in search of a multi-year deal in free agency. As both pitchers are already on the wrong side of 30, that’s a defensible decision for both as this winter may represent their best opportunity to land longer term guarantee in free agency. Both pitchers have considerable upside and could provide solid value for their new club if they pitch to their potential, but both also have noticeable red flags in their profiles that could give teams pause.

Severino is no longer the pitcher he was in his early 20s, when he made two All-Star teams and asserted himself as the ace of the Yankees rotation with a 3.13 ERA and 2.99 FIP across 66 starts from 2017-19. Since that peak performance, the right-hander missed nearly three full regular seasons thanks to a lat strain that cost him the majority of 2019 followed by Tommy John surgery, which wiped out 2020 and almost all of his 2021 campaign. His next two seasons also saw him wind up bitten by the injury bug, as he suffered another lat strain in 2022 and an oblique strain in 2023. While 2022 saw him look mostly like himself when healthy enough to take the mound with a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts, 2023 saw his performance take a nosedive. In 89 1/3 innings in his final year as a Yankee, Severino was torched for a 6.65 ERA and 6.14 FIP. That production was 35% worse than league average, and left him to enter free agency last winter surrounded by plenty of question marks.

The right-hander generally answered those questions after taking a one-year deal with the Mets last winter. He enjoyed his first fully healthy season since 2018, making 31 starts and throwing 182 innings. With that said, his results were clearly diminished relative to his peak as he posted a 3.91 ERA (101 ERA+) and a 4.21 FIP that cast him more as a league average pitcher than one capable of fronting a rotation. After striking out 28.8% of opponents from 2017 to 2022 and walking just 6.6%, both figures trended in the wrong direction this year as he punched out batters at a 21.2% clip and allowed free passes to 7.9% of hitters. He made up for that somewhat by posting his strongest groundball rate in years, however, with a 46% figure that ranked 14th among qualified starters this year. Severino’s fastball velocity isn’t far off from where it was at his peak, which could provide optimism for a rebound, but it seems more likely that Severino will continue as a quality third or fourth starter going forward.

Pivetta, by contrast, has been regarded all throughout his career as a high-potential arm with electric stuff. That hasn’t changed even as he’s gotten into his 30s, but he’s still yet to put up the type of quality, front-of-the-rotation production that stuff models have projected for him all throughout his career. The righty had a season in 2024 that’s become typical of him during his years since being shipped from the Phillies to the Red Sox. In 145 2/3 innings of work, he posted a 4.14 ERA with a 4.07 FIP despite striking out 28.9% of opponents and walking just 6.1%. Those ratios are actually even better than Severino’s numbers throughout his peak, but Pivetta is held back by a proclivity towards allowing homers.

He’s never allowed less than 20 long balls in a 162-game season with 102 allowed over his four years as a regular in Boston. That’s tied with Kikuchi for the fifth-most in the league over that time, behind only Patrick Corbin, Jose Berrios, Aaron Nola, and Jordan Lyles. Severino allows his fair share of home runs as well, but when accounting for the fact that he threw nearly 40 more innings than Pivetta, the difference between his 23 homers allowed this year and Pivetta’s 28 is stark. With that said, it’s undeniably that Pivetta’s high-octane stuff offers more upside than Severino at this point in his career; if a club has a pitcher-friendly ballpark or a plan to help Pivetta control his homer-happy tendencies, it’s easy to see why they’d be tempted to roll the dice on the 31-year-old’s upside.

If you were looking to sign a mid-rotation righty to a multi-year deal this winter, would you prefer to lock down Severino’s volume and quality mid-rotation production despite his lengthy injury history? Or would you rather roll the dice on Pivetta’s upside and more consistent health track record despite a lack of volume and inconsistency brought on by frequent homers?

Blue Jays Interested In Alex Bregman, Luis Severino

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The Blue Jays are known to be in the Juan Soto bidding, but like all teams, they have to consider backup plans. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet takes a look at their Soto pursuit and notes that they also have interest in Max Fried, Luis Severino, Anthony Santander and Alex Bregman. MLBTR has previously covered their interest in Fried and Santander.

Bregman, 31, is one of the top free agents available this winter. He has a career batting line of .272/.366/.483, which translates to a 135 wRC+, indicating he’s been 35% better than league average at the plate overall. His strikeout rate hasn’t been higher than 13.6% in any of the past six full seasons, barely half of league average. His walk rate dipped a bit in 2024 but has been above par for most of his career.

He also gets strong grades for his third base defense and is willing to move to second if he signs with a club that has a greater need there. His clubhouse and leadership qualities are often lauded by those who have played with him. MLBTR predicted Bregman for a seven-year deal worth $182MM at the start of the offseason. It’s well established that the Astros want him back, but he’s also been connected to the Tigers, Red Sox, Phillies and now Blue Jays.

For the Jays, third base and second base are both fairly unsettled. Ernie Clement was the primary option at the hot corner in 2024 and he had a serviceable season. His .263/.284/.408 batting line was slightly below average, translating to a 94 wRC+. But he also stole 12 bases and got strong grades for his glovework at third and shortstop, as well as brief looks at second base and left field.

The total package added up to 2.2 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and Clement is still on the roster, but he shouldn’t stand in the way of someone like Bregman coming aboard. If Bregman took over as the everyday guy at the hot corner, it could move Clement into a utility role, which could still allow him to contribute fairly regularly.

At second base, Spencer Horwitz and Davis Schneider got decent chunks of the playing time, alongside the now-departed Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Horwitz has hit well in his major league career so far but is not a natural second baseman, only moving there since his first base spot is taken by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. A lot of the designated hitter plate appearances went to Justin Turner in 2024, who is no longer with the team. Perhaps that frees up Horwitz and Guerrero to share that spot and first base in 2025, depending on what other moves the Jays make this winter. Schneider is coming off a down season and can also play left field.

The Jays have some other players on the roster capable of playing either third or second base, including Addison Barger, Orelvis Martínez, Will Wagner and Leo Jiménez, but no one in that group has even 70 games of major league experience. With the Jays looking to quickly bounce back from a poor 2024 campaign, there’s logic in going for an established major leaguer like Bregman as opposed to hoping that someone in that group takes a step forward. The Jays have also been tied to shortstop Willy Adames, who is reportedly willing to move to third base with his new club if they already have a shortstop. The Jays have Bo Bichette at short but he’s only one year from free agency, so that’s a move that could potentially help in the short and long term.

The interest in Severino aligns with the club’s other rotation pursuits. As mentioned, they’ve been tied to Fried as well as Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell, though Snell is now off the board due to his agreement with the Dodgers. Severino once seemed like a budding ace with the Yankees but he didn’t pitch much from 2019 to 2021 due to injuries. He was able to pitch partial seasons in 2022 and 2023 but with inconsistent results.

He’s coming off a solid bounceback year with the Mets. He made 32 starts and tossed 182 innings, his first time throwing more than 102 innings since 2018. On top of the quantity, there was also some quality, as Severino allowed 3.91 earned runs per innings. His 21.2% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate were all pretty close to league average.

Severino isn’t as exciting as Burnes or Fried but he also won’t cost as much. MLBTR predicted Burnes for a $200MM guarantee and Fried a bit behind at $156MM. Severino, on the other hand, was projected for a three-year deal worth $51MM.

The Jays have a veteran rotation nucleus consisting of José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt. Another spot is likely ticketed to Bowden Francis after his strong second half. Options for the fifth spot include Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss but there’s sense in the Jays adding. Rodríguez has plenty of relief experience and the Jays need help in the bullpen, so he could be pushed there, at least until an injury opens up a need in the rotation. Bloss has less than 12 big league innings and only 112 in the minors, so he could get some more seasoning in Triple-A until a big league opportunity arises.

On the financial side of things, RosterResource projects the Jays for a payroll of $189MM next year. President Mark Shapiro has suggested the club will end up with a roughly similar payroll as they did in 2024. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegged their Opening Day figure at $225MM last year, so that could leave them with about $35MM of wiggle room.

Adding one of these notable free agents could certainly fit into that window, though Soto would be a unique case. The average annual value of his contract will certainly eclipse that number but it’s been reported by Nicholson-Smith that the Jays would make an exception for Soto, willing to stretch the budget further than they would otherwise.

Each of Soto, Bregman, Severino, Fried, Burnes, Santander and Adames rejected a qualifying offer, so the associated penalties will also have to be a consideration. The Jays seemingly ducked under the competitive balance tax in 2024 with their midseason selloff, though it’s not yet official. If that proves to be the case, the Jays would have to surrender their second-best pick in the upcoming draft as well as $500K of international bonus pool space for signing one of these players.

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