Luis Severino

At the end of each season, certain players will have to decide whether to stick with their current contracts or become free agents. These contract provisions are sometimes referred to as opt-outs and sometimes as player options. Despite the different terminology, they are effectively the same, with the player being the one making the call.

Back in April, MLBTR outlined the 13 players who have a decision to make at the end of the campaign. How have they fared since then? Let’s take a look and see who is trending towards opting out and who isn’t.

Players are listed in alphabetical order. Ages in parentheses are for the 2027 season.

• José Berríos (33): can opt out of remaining two years, $48MM

At the start of the season, it didn’t look likely that Berríos would be opting out. His strikeout rate had dipped below 20% in both 2024 and 2025. He still found a way to post decent results but looked more like a back-end innings eater than a playoff-caliber starter. To walk away from $48MM, he would have needed to complete a pretty strong platform season in 2026.

Unfortunately, he was battling an elbow injury in the early going and ultimately required Tommy John surgery in May. He’ll be sidelined until midway through the 2027 season. There’s no chance he’s opting out now.

• Bo Bichette (29): can opt out of remaining two years, $84MM, taking a $5MM buyout

Bichette reached free agency after the 2025 season and was presented with an interesting choice. The Phillies reportedly offered him a somewhat standard long-term deal for a player of his caliber, a seven-year deal worth $190 to $200MM, about $28MM annually. That was pretty close to MLBTR’s prediction of $208MM over eight years. But the Mets offered him $126MM, a smaller guarantee but over just three years, or $42MM annually. The deal also came with opt-outs after each season, with $5MM buyouts.

The young infielder opted for the Mets path, which seemed logical at the time. He was leaving some money on the table, in a sense, but he had a path to coming out ahead in the long run. He could post a good season with the Mets in 2026, bank $47MM, then return to free agency looking for more. Since he initially reached free agency ahead of his age-28 season, he would still be fairly young when returning to the open market.

Unfortunately, that plan is falling apart right now, as it’s missing the key component of Bichette putting up good numbers. Through 309 plate appearances as a Met, he has a dreadful .239/.285/.361 line. That is miles below last year’s .311/.357/.483 slash.

He’s also not really getting a chance to prove himself at a non-shortstop position, which may have been part of the appeal of the opt-out path. Bichette had been a shortstop throughout his career but didn’t have good grades there, so it was expected that someone would sign him and put him elsewhere. The Mets were going to do just that, as they have Francisco Lindor as their franchise shortstop. Bichette started the season at third and could have shown himself as a viable third baseman before returning to the open market.

But Lindor suffered a significant calf injury, which has led to Bichette becoming an everyday shortstop again. His metrics there are on a similarly poor pace to last year. In 1,139 innings at short in 2025, he was credited with minus-12 Defensive Runs Saved and minus-13 Outs Above Average. In 326 1/3 innings this year, he’s at minus-3 DRS and minus-2 OAA.

Put it all together and it seems unlikely Bichette opts out. Perhaps he could catch fire for the next few months and make it more of a consideration. For what it’s worth, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that teams are expecting Bichette to opt out. He is hitting .333/.333/.625 so far in June, though in just 51 plate appearances.

• Corbin Burnes (32): can opt out of remaining four years and $140MM ($44MM deferred)

As of a few months ago, it didn’t seem too likely that Burnes would trigger this opt-out. He is recovering from last year’s Tommy John surgery. Even in a best-case scenario, he was looking at returning after the All-Star break to maybe put up a few months of good numbers. Even if that came to pass, he seemed to pick the Diamondbacks because his family has a house in Arizona, seemingly turning down better offers to be in the desert.

In a strict financial sense, there was an argument for it. Blake Snell secured a $182MM deal ahead of his age-32 season. Jacob deGrom got $185MM ahead of age-35. If Burnes came back and looked like an ace for a few months, maybe he could beat his remaining $140MM.

But even if there was a narrow window, it’s shut now. Burnes recently suffered a teres major strain while trying to ramp up his throwing program. Now his best-case scenario will be rejoining the Diamondbacks in September. Making three or four starts and then turning down $140MM would not be wise. Since Burnes and his family picked Arizona for non-financial reasons anyway, he is sure to stay.

• Kyle Freeland (34) – $17MM player option for 2027 if 170 innings pitched in 2026

This player option was always going to be tough to reach for Freeland. He has only twice reached 170 innings in his career. The first instance was way back in 2018. The other was in 2022, when he just barely got there, finishing that campaign at 174 2/3 innings.

Even if he stayed healthy, it’s hard to get there just on an innings-per-start basis. Freeland was essentially healthy in 2025. He had one minimal injured list stint for back stiffness, probably missing two starts. In the 31 starts he did make, he logged 162 2/3 frames, about 5.2 innings per outing.

Here in 2026, he’s already had another minimal IL stint for shoulder inflammation. Around that, he has taken the ball 12 times and logged 58 2/3 innings. That’s only 4.9 innings per start, a lesser pace than last year. His 7.98 earned run average doesn’t suggest he should be getting longer leash.

Even if he picks up the pace and starts to make 170 seem viable, the Rockies probably don’t want to let it happen. They are rebuilding and won’t be eyeing contention in 2027, so it wouldn’t be their preference to commit $17MM to a pitcher, even a franchise stalwart like Freeland.

They clearly see value in investing in the rotation, even while rebuilding. They signed Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana and Tomoyuki Sugano in the most recent offseason. But each of those guys got $8MM or less, not even half of Freeland’s player option. Even if the Rockies want to bring Freeland back next year, they would want the price to be lower.

• Ryan Helsley (32) – $14MM player option

Helsley signed a two-year, $28MM deal with the Orioles in the most recent offseason, with an opt-out halfway through. Ideally, he would post a bounceback season in 2026 and then return to the open market. He had been a dominant closer in previous seasons but had an ill-timed swoon in 2025, just before hitting the open market. He posted a 2.04 ERA while racking up 49 saves in 2024. Last year, he only saved 21 as his ERA jumped to 4.50.

The results in 2026 are mixed. Helsley posted a 2.53 ERA and racked up seven saves before he hit the injured list at the start of May due to elbow inflammation. The IL stint isn’t ideal but he began a rehab assignment a few days ago and should be back soon.

Digging into the pre-injury results, his 32.6% strikeout rate was encouraging, as he had dropped to 25% in 2025. However, he walked 15.2% of batters faced, a massive jump. From 2022 to 2025, he walked 9.4% of batters faced.

Ultimately, it’s a small sample of data. If Helsley stays healthy the rest of the way, the numbers after this IL stint will be more important. Beating $14MM is very doable for a reliever. In the most recent offseason, 13 different relievers signed deals with guarantees larger than that, including Helsley himself. On the other hand, Pete Fairbanks is a strong reliever and he landed a $13MM deal, so it’s not a slam dunk.

• Clay Holmes (34) – $12MM player option

At the start of the season, this looked like one of the most likely opt-outs. Holmes spent most of his career as a reliever until he signed a three-year, $38MM pact with the Mets ahead of the 2025 season. The club stretched him out as a starter with solid results. He logged 165 2/3 innings last year with a 3.53 earned run average. He got fewer strikeouts as a starter but the ground ball rate stayed strong. As the 2026 season got going, it only became more likely that Holmes would walk away from the final year of the deal. He posted a 2.39 ERA in his first nine starts of the season.

However, the situation is a bit more murky now for health reasons. Holmes suffered a fractured fibula in the middle of May. He’s going to avoid surgery but is probably going to be sidelined until August.

If he returns and looks fine down the stretch, beating $12MM isn’t too hard for a competent starting pitcher. Just looking at the most recent offseason, guys like Dustin May, Justin Verlander, Nick Martinez, Steven Matz, Chris Bassitt and Adrian Houser all topped that number despite concerns related to health, age or performance. Though if the injury lingers and Holmes misses the remainder of the season, or maybe only makes a handful of starts, then perhaps he would prefer to just take the bird in the hand.

• Tatsuya Imai (29) – can opt out of remaining two years, $36MM

Imai was one of the biggest unknowns coming into 2026. He had put up some great numbers in recent seasons in Japan but with some asterisks. He had big control problems earlier in his career. He reined in the walks in 2024 and 2025 but Nippon Professional Baseball was operating with a deadened ball in those years. With that ball and many Japanese hitters prioritizing contact over power, it was perhaps easier for Imai to fill up the strike zone and not worry so much about getting burned.

MLB teams seemed to be skeptical about how he would make the move. Some evaluators, including MLBTR, thought he could secure a major nine-figure deal. Instead, he signed a three-year, $54MM deal with the Astros with opt-outs after each season. If he ultimately proved himself as a viable big league starter, he could return to free agency and get a better guarantee later.

Overall, the results are poor, though with some good flashes. Imai has nine starts under his belt with a 6.43 earned run average. Imai allowed four earned runs in his first start without getting through the third inning. He rebounded with 5 2/3 scoreless in his second but his third start was a disaster. He faced seven batters and only recorded one out before being pulled. After that, the Astros put him on the injured list with the vague diagnosis of arm fatigue.

He came off the IL a month later and was still shaky. His first start in May saw him go four innings, allowing six earned runs. His next outing was a bit better, with three earned runs allowed in 4 2/3. He got much better from there, throwing six shutty in his next game. Next time out, he again went six, this time allowing two earned runs. His next outing saw him surrender another two runs, this time over five innings.

But most recently, he had another nightmare. Against the Royals on Friday, he faced seven batters and couldn’t get out of the first, recording two outs while allowing five earned runs. Looking at the season-long numbers, there’s no way he opts out. He did look to be in a good groove for a few weeks but just spoiled his momentum. He’ll need to lock in for an extended period of time to make the opt-out seem realistic.

• Michael King (32) – can opt out of remaining two years, $58MM for a $5MM buyout

King was once on track for a big nine-figure deal, as he was one of the best pitchers in baseball for a span of almost two years. The Yankees mostly kept him in relief earlier in his career but he got a rotation shot late in 2023 and took off. From August 24th of that year to May 18th of 2025, getting to traded to San Diego along the way, he logged 267 2/3 innings with a 2.72 earned run average, 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. FanGraphs credited him with 6.7 wins above replacement in that window. Tarik Skubal, Chris Sale, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb, Cole Ragans and Dylan Cease were the only pitchers ahead of him in that regard.

Health questions got in the way from there, which clouded his free agency. A pinched nerve in his shoulder sent him to the injured list for almost three months. He came off the IL in August but a left knee issue put him right back there. He was reinstated and made a few starts in September.

With the health questions lingering into his free agency, he settled for a three-year, $75MM pact with opt-outs after each seasons. So far, the 2026 results have been more good than great. He has stayed healthy and has a 3.46 ERA through 14 starts but his strikeout rate is down to 22.1%.

The reduced strikeouts are somewhat concerning but perhaps more important is that King is healthy and his velocity is actually up. It still seems likely he will opt out. MLBTR recently placed him fourth on the June update to the 2026-27 Free Agent Power Rankings. Since he’s not quite as dominant as in previous seasons, it will be worth watching to see how he progresses the rest of the way.

• Yuki Matsui (31) – can opt out of remaining two years, $13.5MM

Matsui’s first two years in the majors had him as a serviceable but not particularly dominant reliever for the Padres. Over the 2024 and 2025 campaigns, he he gave San Diego 126 innings with a 3.86 earned run average. His 24.6% strikeout rate was a couple of points above average but his 11.3% walk rate was a few ticks worse than par. He wasn’t used in too many important situations over that span, securing just one save and 12 holds.

He began 2026 on the injured list with a groin strain. Since returning, he has fired off 20 2/3 innings with a 1.74 ERA. That’s obviously an impressive number but some caveats apply. For one, it’s a fairly small sample. Second, his .182 batting average on balls in play and 95.2% strand rate are both incredibly lucky. His 28.7% strikeout rate is a nice jump but his 11.3% walk rate is still high and his velocity is actually down a bit from last year. Metrics like his 4.22 FIP and 3.48 SIERA think he’s a fairly similar pitcher to last year, just with better luck.

He’s also still not being used in leverage roles, having not been put into a save/hold situation yet this year. Part of that is because the Padres have one of the best bullpens in the majors. Perhaps Matsui would move into a setup role with another team but his results have been more decent than overwhelming.

$13.5MM over two years is possible to beat for a decent reliever, even if he’s not a star. Phil Maton just got $14.5MM over two years in the most recent offseason. But it’s also possible that Matsui would end up in the range of lefties like Caleb Ferguson, Caleb Thielbar and Sean Newcomb, who all signed one-year deals worth $4.5MM. If he declines this opt-out chance, he’ll have another after 2027.

• Emilio Pagán (36) – $10MM player option

Pagán signed a two-year deal with the Reds going into 2024, with an opt-out halfway through. He struggled in the first season of that deal, posting a 4.50 earned run average, and decided to stay in Cincinnati. The second season went much better, as he took over the closer’s job and saved 32 games while putting up a 2.88 ERA.

That prompted the Reds to bring him back on a new two-year deal, again with an opt-out halfway through. Again, the first season is not going well, and it’s even worse this time. Pagán put up a 6.43 ERA in 14 innings before a hamstring strain put him on the injured list in early May. His 17.7% strikeout rate this year is barely half of last year’s 30% clip.

He is ramping up now and could be off the IL soon, so he has time to change his numbers and finish strong. But right now, it looks like an easy call for Pagán to once again decide to stay in Cincinnati for the second year of his deal.

• Wandy Peralta (35) – $4.45MM player option

There are some similarities between Matsui and Peralta, as Peralta is another lefty with decent results, mostly in low-leverage work. Over the 2024 and 2025 seasons, Peralta posted a 3.44 earned run average in 110 innings for the Padres. His 17.9% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate weren’t too impressive but he induced grounders at a huge 57.3% clip.

Like Matsui, he has improved his ERA dramatically this year, as he’s down to 2.18 through 33 innings. But also like Matsui, there’s a lot of luck in there, as Peralta currently has a 91.5% strand rate. His 16.4% strikeout rate, 12.1% walk rate and 50.5% ground ball rates are actually worse than usual for him. That’s why his 4.62 FIP and 4.70 SIERA have gone up while his ERA has gone down.

$4.45MM isn’t a massive number to walk away from. As mentioned with Peralta above, many lefty relievers signed for basically that amount in the most recent offseason, but many also signed for less and some even had to settle for minor league deals.

• Nick Pivetta (34) – can opt out of remaining two years and $32MM

Pivetta signed a four-year, $55MM deal with the Padres going into 2025. He then went on to have the best season of his career, posting a 2.87 earned run average over 31 starts. If he had put up another season even close to that in 2026, he would have had a strong case to opt out of the final two years of his deal.

That has not come to pass. Pivetta made just four starts this year before elbow inflammation put him on the injured list in mid-April. He was later diagnosed with a flexor strain with manager Craig Stammen saying the absence would likely be measured in “weeks and maybe months.” It has now been two months since those comments were made and Pivetta is still on the IL. He hasn’t begun a rehab assignment.

It is possible for a 34-year-old mid-rotation starter to beat $32MM. In recent years, Sonny Gray and Nathan Eovaldi got $75MM at that age or older. Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi both got three years and $63MM. Merrill Kelly just got two years and $40MM going into his age-37 campaign.

But Pivetta will obviously have to come back healthy and effective to make a contract like that seem realistic and it’s still unclear how much is realistic to expect from this point on. If he’s back on the mound and putting up good numbers for two months, is that enough? What if it’s just one month? If the Padres make the playoffs and he makes some big starts under the bright lights, maybe that’s a factor as well. While Pivetta is hurt, the safest guess is that he won’t opt out, but he could change that narrative if a few things break his way.

• Luis Severino (33) – $22MM player option

Since signing with the Athletics, Severino has provided serviceable innings, all things considered. Over 41 starts, he has a 4.43 earned run average, 19.4% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 42% ground ball rate.

Since the A’s are playing in a hitter-friendly minor league park, his splits get some attention. It is true that he has a 5.85 ERA at Sutter Health Park compared to a 3.14 ERA on the road, but there’s some luck at play there. His 4.77 FIP at home and 3.69 on the road are much closer than the ERA split.

With those numbers at Severino’s age, walking away from $22MM would probably be a borderline call from a financial point of view. Since he is obviously not thrilled about playing in a minor league park, perhaps that would have tipped the scales for him.

However, he suffered a strain of his shoulder capsule and subscapularis muscle at the end of May. The A’s plan to reevaluate him at four to six weeks from that injury, which would be around the All-Star break. Even if he were declared healthy at that point, he would probably need to ramp through a decent chunk of August before returning. He needs to come back and have some good starts to even make this a possibility, unless he really wants out of West Sacramento.

Photo courtesy of Denis Poroy, Imagn Images

At the end of each season, certain players will have to decide whether to stick with their current contracts or become free agents. These contract provisions are sometimes referred to as opt-outs and sometimes as player options. Despite the different terminology, they are effectively the same, with the player being the one making the call.

Naturally, the player’s health and performance leading up to the decision will impact which way the player leans. Which players have that decision looming after the 2026 campaign? MLBTR takes a look, in alphabetical order. Player ages in parentheses are for the 2027 season.

• José Berríos (33): can opt out of remaining two years, $48MM

The Blue Jays and Berríos agreed to a seven-year, $131MM extension back in November of 2021. The Jays had just acquired Berríos from the Twins a few months earlier, when he had a year and a half of club control remaining. A few months later, with that control window down to one year, they locked him up to keep him around. He could opt out of the final two seasons of the deal, giving him a chance to hit the open market after his age-31 season, when another long-term deal would still be theoretically possible.

Back then, Berríos was a front-of-rotation workhorse who could be banked on for 3-5 WAR per year. He hasn’t been getting as many strikeouts lately, making him feel more like a veteran innings-eater type. From 2022 to 2025, he posted a 4.14 ERA with a 20.7% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 41.7% ground ball rate.

Even that has been undercut by some injury concerns in recent months. He finished 2025 on the injured list due to elbow inflammation and has started this year on the IL as well, again due to elbow inflammation. The issue doesn’t appear to be major and he could be back with the Jays in the near future. He would have to come back healthy and pitch really well in the next few months for this opt-out to even be a consideration.

• Bo Bichette (29): can opt out of remaining two years, $84MM, taking a $5MM buyout

Bichette’s recent trip to the open market was an interesting case. He wasn’t the first notable free agent to settle for a short-term deal, but we do know that he could have taken a more traditional long-term pact. The Phillies reportedly offered him a seven-year deal worth around $200MM. That was pretty close to the eight-year, $208MM deal that MLBTR predicted at the beginning of the offseason.

Instead, Bichette went another way. The Mets offered a much higher average annual value on a short-term deal with opt-outs after each season. Bichette can collect $42MM from the Mets for his age-28 season. If he decides to return to free agency, he can take a $5MM buyout on his way out the door, going into his age-29 season.

He would be walking away from a big salary but another $200MM deal might be out there for him if he has another typical Bichette season. Perhaps he would look to lock that in but we have already seen him opt for the bigger salary once. Maybe he would do so again. On the other hand, it’s theoretically possible he can garner better long-term offers this coming offseason. Last time, he had question marks due to his knee injury and uncertain future position. This time, it’s possible he’ll be healthy and have some proof of concept as a third baseman.

Bichette will need to turn things around to even make this a discussion, as he’s off to a .228/.262/.263 start as a Met, but that’s in a small sample size of 61 plate appearances. He has lots of time to heat up.

• Corbin Burnes (32): can opt out of remaining four years and $140MM ($44MM deferred)

Burnes was a free agent after the 2024 season and few expected him to land in Arizona, but the Diamondbacks signed him to a six-year, $210MM deal, with $64MM deferred. The deal gave Burnes the chance to opt out after two seasons, which would be his age-30 and age-31 seasons.

The deal has not worked out as hoped so far. Burnes did give the club 11 good starts last year, posting a 2.66 ERA, but then required Tommy John surgery in June. He will be on the shelf for at least half of the 2026 season, if not more.

It is theoretically possible for Burnes to beat the remaining money on his deal. Blake Snell was going into his age-32 season in 2025 when the Dodgers gave him a five-year deal worth $182MM. A couple of years prior, Jacob deGrom did better at an even older age. He was going into his age-35 season when he got a five-year, $185MM deal from the Rangers.

For Burnes to make this a conversation, he’ll probably need to come back and shove for at least a few weeks. One or two starts in September won’t do it. It’s also worth considering that Burnes seemingly turned down larger offers from other clubs because he and his family live in Scottsdale. Even if he thinks there’s a chance of slightly more money out there, he might be happy where he is.

• Kyle Freeland (34) – $17MM player option for 2027 if 170 innings pitched in 2026

Freeland and the Rockies signed a five-year, $64.5MM extension back in April of 2022. The deal runs through 2026 but Freeland can unlock a $17MM player option by getting to 170 innings pitched this year. He hasn’t done that in a while, with 2022 being the last time he hit that mark. Even a minor injury that puts Freeland on the IL for a few weeks would quickly take this off the table.

Presumably, the Rockies don’t want him to trigger this. The deal was signed under the previous front office regime. Even at the time, it was a bit of a head-scratcher. Since it has been signed Freeland’s ERA has mostly been hovering around 5.00. That’s not so bad for a pitcher who plays his home games at Coors Field but the Rockies are now rebuilding and don’t seem likely to be in contention next year.

On the other hand, even without a real eye on contention, they have considered it worthwhile to invest in making the rotation more respectable. After losing 119 games last year, the new front office invested almost $20MM to sign Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana and Tomoyuki Sugano. Each of those guys got $8MM or less. Deals like that are probably preferable to spending twice as much on Freeland but it’s not as though that would be back breaking. Freeland is making $16MM this year, so it would be a modest raise.

• Ryan Helsley (32) – $14MM player option

Helsley became a free agent after last year and a pillow deal seemed likely. He had been so dominant at his best but was coming off a poor platform. From 2022 to 2024, he posted a 1.83 ERA with a 34.6% strikeout rate. But in 2025, his ERA jumped up to 4.50. It was an even worse 7.20 for the Mets, who had acquired him from the Cardinals at the deadline. He only struck out 23.2% of batters faced after the deal. There was some talk that he may have been tipping his pitches, as his stuff seemed the same.

The Orioles gave him a two-year, $28MM deal, with even $14MM salaries in each season. Ideally, Helsley would return to form. That would give the O’s a lock-down closer without a lengthy commitment, while Helsley could return to free agency and get a bigger payday.

The early results are mixed. Helsley has thrown 4 1/3 innings for the O’s. His 30.4% strikeout rate is a nice uptick but he has also walked 17.4% of batters faced in that small sample. He still has lots of time but the sooner he locks in, the more it will help him in the coming offseason.

• Clay Holmes (34) – $12MM player option

Holmes spent most of his career as a reliever until he hit free agency, when he drew interest as a starter. The Mets gave him a three-year, $38MM deal and stretched him out. That deal contained an opt-out after two years. That would give Holmes a chance to return to free agency with some proof of concept as a starter, while the Mets would hope to at least get a couple of decent seasons from him.

So far, so good. Holmes is striking out fewer batters as a starter but is still getting plenty of ground balls, leading to good results on the whole. He has thrown 178 1/3 innings as a Met with a 3.38 ERA. His 18.2% strikeout rate is well below his work as a reliever, when he was usually above 25%, but Holmes has induced grounders at a 56.4% clip. He has had a bit of luck from a .273 batting average on balls in play and 75% strand rate, but his 4.09 FIP and 4.39 SIERA suggest he would be a competent back-end starter even with more neutral luck.

A decent starting pitcher can beat $12MM these days, even one in his mid-30s. In the most recent offseason, Nick Martinez got $13MM from the Rays for his age-35 season. Chris Bassitt got $18.5MM from the Orioles for his age-37 season. Merrill Kelly got two years and $40MM from the Diamondbacks starting at age-37. Adrian Houser got two years and $22MM from the Giants beginning with his age-33 campaign, even though he had to settle for a minor league deal a year prior.

Holmes hasn’t been getting as many strikeouts as Kelly or Bassitt but he was comparable to Martinez and Houser last year, with far more grounders than anyone in that group. He’s not an ace but there could be a path to something better than what will be left on his deal.

• Tatsuya Imai (29) – can opt out of remaining two years, $36MM

Imai is just making his major league debut. Coming from Japan at the end of last season, there seemed to be big divisions in how he was viewed by major league teams. Some saw him as a viable mid-rotation guy but others felt his future would be as a leverage reliever.

Some, including us, thought that a team would bet on the upside. MLBTR predicted Imai to land a six-year deal worth $150MM. It seems no club was willing to go to that length, at least not yet. Imai signed a three-year, $54MM deal with the Astros. Opt-outs after each season give him a chance to return to free agency, ideally with a track record of success as a major league starter. He is still relatively young, turning 28 in May, so he should still be able to secure a long-term deal in the future if the results are there.

It has only been two starts but the numbers have been mixed. Imai has a huge 35.1% strikeout rate but a massive 18.9% walk rate. That lack of control is one of the worries with Imai. He got his walk rate down to 7% in his final NPB season but was above 11% from 2019 to 2023. Beating two years and $36MM would be easy if he’s a 29-year-old mid-rotation starter but he will probably stay if he doesn’t quite cement himself or gets pushed to the bullpen.

• Michael King (32) – can opt out of remaining two years, $58MM for a $5MM buyout

Not too long ago, King looked to be on his way to a nine-figure deal. He got a rotation chance with the Yankees late in 2023 and made the most of it. The Padres acquired him and put him into their starting group. King responded with an excellent 2024. He kept that going into 2025 until some injury issues popped up. From August 24th of 2023 until May 18th of 2025, King tossed 267 2/3 innings with a 2.72 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. FanGraphs credits him with 6.7 WAR for that span. The only six pitchers ahead of him on that leaderboard are Tarik Skubal, Chris Sale, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb, Cole Ragans and Dylan Cease.

But King wasn’t able to carry that all the way into free agency. A pinched nerve in his shoulder sent him to the IL for a while. He returned but then quickly went back on the IL with left knee inflammation. He made a few starts in September but wasn’t as dominant as before.

Due to that unimpressive finish, he seemed likely to get a short-term deal with opt-outs, and that indeed came to pass. The Friars brought him back with a three-year deal worth $75MM. It’s a bit backloaded, a team preference since the Padres have been working with some payroll restrictions. King gets a $12MM signing bonus, $4MM annually, but he’ll get all of that even if he opts out. It’s a $5MM salary in the first season and then a $5MM buyout if he walks. Then there’s a $28MM salary in 2027 and $30MM for the final season.

He can easily beat that if he’s back in top form. As mentioned, he was pitching like an ace a year ago and was on a path to something well over $100MM. Even with the injuries, he almost got to nine figures. Through three starts, he has a 3.24 ERA. His 22.1% strikeout rate and 11.8% walk rate aren’t amazing but it’s a very small sample size.

• Yuki Matsui (31) – can opt out of remaining two years, $13.5MM

After years working as a closer in Japan, Matsui came over to North America ahead of the 2024 season. The Padres signed him to a five-year, $28MM deal. That pact allowed him to opt out after three years, as long as he didn’t have a major injury in the first two.

Matsui stayed healthy and has generally given the Padres solid relief work. He made more than 60 appearances and logged more than 60 innings in both 2024 and 2025. On the whole, he has a 3.86 ERA in 126 innings thus far. However, his 11.3% walk rate is high and his 24.6% strikeout rate is only about two ticks above average for a reliever. He hasn’t really been in a leverage role, with just one save and 12 holds. He began the 2026 season on the IL with a groin strain.

Two years and $13.5MM isn’t a massive amount of money in baseball terms but Matsui won’t beat that if he’s a low-leverage reliever. Those types of guys usually get one-year deals worth a few million. He would have another chance to opt out after 2027.

• Emilio Pagán (36) – $10MM player option

Pagán’s profile is well known at this point. He gets a lot of strikeouts but also allows lots of home runs. That leads to big swings in his ERA, depending on how many fly balls are leaving the yard. He had a 4.43 ERA with the Twins in 2022, then dropped that to 2.99 in 2023. The Reds signed him to a two-year deal with an opt-out. His ERA spiked to 4.50 in the first season and he decided to stay. He then had a 2.88 ERA in 2025.

He returned to free agency and the Reds re-signed him to basically the same deal as before. The first was $16MM over two years. The second deal gave him a slight bump to $20MM. Pagán has already allowed two home runs through 7 1/3 innings this year, leading to a 6.14 ERA. This one literally depends on which way the winds will be blowing this summer.

• Wandy Peralta (35) – $4.45MM player option

Peralta got a four-year, $16.5MM deal from the Padres going into 2024, with the final three seasons all being player options. That was a surprise at the time but the Friars like deals like this, seemingly because of their financial situation. The extra years lower the average annual value and therefore the hit to the competitive balance tax. If the player has a good season and opts out, that’s a loss to the roster but the Padres get him off the books.

With Peralta, he has mostly been a ground ball specialist in his career, getting opponents to pound the ball into the dirt at a 53.8% clip. His 19.1% strikeout rate is below average but he’s still been able to have some good seasons. His first two campaigns in San Diego were fine but weren’t enough for him to trigger either of his first two opt-out chances. He had a 3.99 ERA in 2024 and a 3.14 ERA last year. He has a 3.60 ERA in the early going in 2026.

$4.45MM isn’t a ton of money but veteran relievers can sometimes get squeezed. Andrew Chafin keeps having to settle for minor league deals, for instance. Peralta should probably just stick with San Diego for 2027 unless he has a surprisingly dominant season.

• Nick Pivetta (34) – can opt out of remaining two years and $32MM

The Padres signed Pivetta to a four-year, $55MM deal ahead of the 2025 season. Due to San Diego’s aforementioned payroll crunch, they backloaded the money. Pivetta got a $3MM signing bonus and $1MM salary in 2025. He is making $19MM this year, followed by two player options worth $14MM and $18MM. The 2027 option becomes a club option if Pivetta misses 130 days for a major injury.

The first season of the deal was the best of Pivetta’s career. He took the ball 31 times and posted a 2.87 ERA, though that may have been a bit fluky. His strikeout and walk rates held fairly steady compared to prior seasons. He went into 2025 with a 15.5% home run to fly ball rate but only 9.7% of his fly balls went over the fence last year. If his home run rates revert back to previous levels, his ERA would likely jump back to his usual range of the low 4.00s.

Two years and $32MM is beatable as a decent 34-year-old. Sonny Gray and Nathan Eovaldi both got three-year deals worth $75MM in recent years. Eovaldi was actually one year older, going into his age-35 campaign. Bassitt got three years and $63MM from the Blue Jays a few years back. Yusei Kikuchi got the same deal from the Angels. As previously mentioned, Kelly got $40MM over two years going into his age-37 season.

• Luis Severino (33) – $22MM player option

Severino signed a three-year, $67MM deal with the Athletics ahead of 2025. The A’s were desperate for pitching. Luring big leaguers there was going to be tough since they were going to be playing in a minor league park from 2025 to 2027. They also needed to spend a bit more to avoid putting their status as a revenue sharing recipient at risk. The Severino deal surpassed expectations and the industry consensus is that the A’s realized they had to overpay someone.

Though Severino accepted that job and has 67 million reasons to feel good about it, he also has a few reasons to feel annoyed and went public with those. It’s possible he’s eager to move on and maybe the opt-out was put into the contract so that he would have the ability to do so.

Last year’s results weren’t amazing, as he posted a 4.54 ERA. The minor league park played as hitter-friendly and may have hurt him, as he had a 6.01 ERA there compared to a 3.02 ERA on the road. However, that road ERA was helped by a tiny .249 BABIP. He only struck out 17% of batters faced in away games, so it’s not as though he was dominating. His 4.34 home FIP and 3.87 road FIP were much closer than the ERA splits.

Unless he really dominates in 2026, sticking with the A’s may be best financial decision. In the most recent offseason, decent starters got less than the $22MM Severino would be turning down. Zac Gallen got $22.025MM but with deferrals that knocked the net present value below $19MM. As mentioned, Houser got $22MM on a two-year deal. Steven Matz got $15MM over two. Bassitt got $18.5MM, Martinez got $13MM and Dustin May got $12.5MM via one-year deals. His 2026 results will play a role but his desire to get out of that minor league park may also be a factor.

Photo courtesy of D. Ross Cameron, Imagn Images