Free agent righty Tim Lincecum expects to wait until the calendar flips before seriously considering signing, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports. Having undergone hip surgery in September, the two-time Cy Young winner is hoping to return to health and put on a showcase in January.
Passan suggests that Lincecum and his camp are hoping that the procedure will help the 31-year-old rediscover some of his former form. Between 2008 and 2011, he compiled 881 1/3 innings of 2.81 ERA pitching with 10.0 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9. It’s been quite some time since Lincecum rated as a top-of-the-rotation arm, though, as his last All-Star appearance and sub-4.00 ERA came in the last year of that four-season run.
Lincecum has, however, shown the potential to deliver some innings since. His earned run average sits at 4.68 in 615 2/3 frames over the 2012-15 span, but he carries a 4.08 FIP in that time. Other metrics have been even more bullish on the righty in prior years, though both xFIP (4.64) and SIERA (4.82) panned his 15 starts in 2015. And Lincecum’s strikeout rate has continued to fall along with his velocity — though, somewhat curiously, his swinging strike rate was nearly as good as ever last year (10.7%) even as his average heater landed south of 88 mph.
It remains to be seen whether a healthy hip will fuel a late-career burst, but it seems likely that clubs will be intrigued to see how Lincecum looks. Interestingly, his plans also seem to indicate a willingness to fully test the market, suggesting that a return to the Giants may not be in the offing. (It had been reported earlier this fall that San Francisco might be interested in striking a minor league deal.)
Regardless of what kind of show he can put on come January, the likelihood is that Lincecum will land a one-year contract — both because that’s all the market will give and because he’ll want a chance to re-enter free agency after a better platform season. If Lincecum can show enough to achieve guaranteed money, odds are it’ll be fairly modest, though he also seems a likely candidate for an incentive-rich contract.
Id love to see if Ray Searage and the Pirates could work their magic on a cheap one year deal with Big Time Timmy Jim
I thought of either Lincecum or Latos when it came to who the annual reclamation project would be. At this point, and reading what I’m seeing here, I think I might prefer Latos even though Latos may cost more.
For no strategic reason at all..I’d love to see him in a Jays uniform
Anyone think the Phillies could sign him?
Not likely, if Lincecum is going to a rebuilding club for a sign and flip deal, he’ll look for a bigger park to pitch in. He may also still have some bad blood with some of the Phillies org and players after the drama during the ’10-’11 seasons.
The Phillies could easily give him the most money and then he will sign there.
Not really. He wants to rebuild value so he will not want to go to a park like that unless he was way overpaid.
I second darthjadyer’s sentiments I think he would be a great fit for the bluejays.
Unless can get Lincecum for 2-3m tops, or better on some kind of minor league deal with an opt out, I’d pass. Better chance of another guy who used to rely of velocity to get it back in Justin Masterson than Lincecum, who now operates in Jamie Moyer mid 80’s ranges and has been on a slow spiral down for 7-8 seasons velocity wise to the mid 80’s. Masterson’s was an all at once to 89-91mph which was injury related and a small chance of returning, Timmy’s is gone.
He’s going to have to try and remake himself totally. Pitching the same way hasn’t worked, last 4 seasons are valid proof. Wish him well, but waiting until January don’t see any benefits, unless he was to throw in winter ball and work on a new delivery.. Trick pitch etc..
Lol what? Timmy’s done nothing but remake himself over the last 3 seasons. He lost his velocity because of his hip. Thats why he had surgery. If he’s even 60% of Timmy from 2010 I’ll sign him for 2 or 3x that in a heart beat.
Masterson v. Lincecum is ridiculous. Masterson has never and will never been in Timmy’s league
Just what you wrote describes every last one of his issues and what’s wrong with giving him any kind of MLB contract, or one worth more than 2-3m.. He throws mid 80’s, he HASN’T managed to transform himself into a lower velocity pitcher succesfully over the last few seasons, not even in one of the top 2-3 home pitching parks in the entire game. WHY would anyone think things will change?
Masterson hurt his knee, which in turn caused him to hurt his shoulder a season and a half ago. His velocity is a bit higher than most site’s give him credit for because he throws 50% sinkers/cutters and 50% 2 seam fastballs and always has. When he would sit 94-6, I noticed earlier 2 sites are showing him at 91-3. Now they are showing him around 87-88 and last year his 2 seamer was 89-91. That’s a lot closer to old former self than a 7mph drop Lincecum has suffered.
Doubt Masterson will ever touch upper 90’s again, he used to hit 97-8 in his early Boston and Indians days, but if he could get back to touching 94-5 and sitting 92-3, plus that very heavy sinker around 90-91, which always was his best pitch? He could make a return and Masterson was a #2SP for a bit, before he hurt that knee which led to problems, just like Lincecum was a #1 before his velo went south.
As it is, neither have managed to turn into soft tossers. Masterson’s sinker has little bite in the mid 80’s and needs to be thrown harder, that was why he got over 9m last year.
I’d like to see Lincecum back too, but the velocity dip was slow and steady, those kinds just do not return. All at once drops have a chance.
Actually, Timmy’s been losing velocity since at least 2011. IMO, his velocity declined so much because he is tiny for a pitcher, he depended on a max effort delivery to throw hard, and as he got older/less athletic, he couldn’t keep it up. That’s debatable, but it’s crazy to blame his hip injury for the velo loss when it’s been happening for like 5 years now. I’m a Giants fan BTW.
Just because you’re a Giants fan doesn’t give your statement any more validity. Just because he’s been losing velocity since 2011 is fine but maybe just maybe his hip issue accelerated the degeneration of his velocity. So no, its not so crazy. The same thing happened to Jurrjens
Then you are calling his surgeon that because the doctor was quoted as saying that the surgery fixed Lincecum’s hip problem which the doctor said was the reason for his loss of velocity.
Since so many people missed this bit of news back then, here are some links:
cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25290842/giant…
sfgate.com/giants/shea/article/Shea-Dad-expects-Ti…
And yes, his Dad is extremely biased, but the article has a lot of information. In any case, the Heyman article has the information I’ve been drawing upon (and it was not exclusive to them, the Doctor told all the local beat writers too).
So unless you are a world renown hip surgeon who can point out some issues with what the Dr said, I’m going with what the guy who actually operated on him said.
Show me the radar gun with Timmy at 94-96 again and then I will believe that it was a hip problem and would be open to him returning to the Giants. A doctor saying it was the cause and Timmy being able to find his lost velocity again are two different things entirely. Let’s not forget that his arm is also 4 years older than the last time he was consistently effective as well.
I don’t know why teams would want Masterson OR Lincecum at this point. Neither one has shown much the last 3-4 years and to sign them for anything more than a minor league deal doesn’t make a lot of sense. Because Tim was once a great pitcher is irrelevant today. Same for Sabathia.
If Timmy doesn’t demand too high of a figure, he could be a solid buy low option for most teams looking for pitching depth. If AA is looking to stay frugal, he would be an interesting addition to the Tigers.
With an 88 mph fastball, he had better be twisting off some pretty excellent breaking pitches.
Correct. See Timu-san 2015 success! 15 start before July. Hip no give out then Timu-san make 30. Timu-san-tacki success! 8W 7L in 15 start of Timu-san. Not bad. Not good but not bad.
Timu-san pitchu 6 inning Timu-san-tachi success! 6 W 1 L. Very good. Timu-san not pitchu 5 inning Timu-san-tachi success 1 W 5 L. Very bad.
2 big weapon of Timu-san are big curvu and long stride from pitchu rubber to releasu fast. Bumu hip say Timu-san you no stride to proper releasu. So! Big curvu of Timu-san only sole pitch. So! Timu-san no last 5 inning.
Hipu operation for make long stride again. Timu-san 140 kph 14 meter frm battu-san slow. Timu-San 140 kph from position 15 meter from battu-san NOT slow.
Timu-san 30 plus not to be Timu-san 25. No need!
I’m sure that was funny in your head.
Lincecum would be a great depth signing on an incentive laden deal for the Jays on a 1 yr deal. This wohld also be great for Lincecum since he would be pitching in front of a great defence and a juggernaut offence.
I’d love to see the Phillies take a flyer on him. Lottery ticket…if he’s good they can flip him at the deadline.
only 31 so i wouldn’t consider this “a late career burst”, as stated.
the way his career has been going lately i don’t think it’s an unfair phrase
Lincecum and hellickson…hell of a 1.2 in Philly.
…If only it was 2011
More like a 4-5.
Thompson, Nola and Eickoff are all better.
Prediction: Lincecum signs for less than a $10 mil annual salary. His last contract was really the Giants being exceedingly generous to a household name and a once dominant ace. His best years are behind him, unfortunately.
Mets should give him a shot at either a 5th starter or a bullpen pitcher
He wouldn’t want to play for them.
At this point, I think Lincecum will take whatever opportunity gives him the best chance to do what he wants, which seems to be as a starting pitcher.
I could see St. Louis taking a flier on him with Lance Lynn going down for 2016 to Tommy John Surgery. It depends on how much of his velocity returns I suppose.
Unless he really fixed something with this surgery and is looking lights out at his showcase, anything more than vets minimum with performance incentives would be a mistake. Been waiting 4 expensive years to see the “Old Timmy” or the “Reinvented Timmy” to no avail. He will string together a couple good starts and get your hopes up and then look lost, like he has no idea what is coming out of his hand.
The doctor was quoted as saying that the hip surgery fixed what was causing his velocity to diminish, and that he should be back to normal now.
And you need to separate out different periods of his development. Early on in his decline, he definitely had no idea of how to attack hitters with his diminished velocity, hence leading to the impression that he had no idea what was coming out of his hand. Midway through, he started learning where to and not to pitch to hitters, and he was able to string together longer stretches of good pitching, but then his hip issues was getting worse and worse. You don’t go 18 starts of 3.11 ERA having no idea what’s coming out of his hand.
But I agree that it would be a mistake to give him anything more than that. But baseball teams being what they are, I expect somebody to take a flier on him and give him more, particularly if he can throw into at least the low 90’s in his showcase in January.
Once I see the rader gun register 95 again, I’ll believe the doctor.
Kansas City seems like a logical choice with their huge ballpark, 2 years 14 mil. and he might more comfortable playing in a more press free market
– Lincecum
– Ventura
– Volquez
– Duffy
– Medlin
not bad at all…. and if it doesn’t pan out just stick him in the bullpen and let him rebrand himself as a closer
Not to crush everyone’s dreams and stuff he’s not going to be the Tim lincecum of the past. He might not even be close. The Yankees have been linked to him for years and id be surprised if he winds up with any other big money team. I’d say his top 3 persuers will be the Yankees, Giants and Cardinals
Tim WILL stay with SF if he shows any bit of his old self in his showcase in January. He can fill the back end of the rotation. It would be a major PR blunder for the Giants NOT to sign him if he shows well.
I find that most Giants fans are too focused on Tim’s seasonal numbers, probably because they don’t really pay much attention to them until later, to justify their feelings that he’s lost it.
Here are the facts I know from following Lincecum’s starts, start by start. Even with his diminished velocity, he has been an effective pitcher – WHEN his hip was not acting up. He had the best ERA early in 2015 for about 6-8 weeks, which is not much, but that’s when his health took a turn for the worse.
The better recent example was his 2014 season. He had an ERA down to 3.65 until that extra inning game where he came in on his throwing day and got a save. Something was put out of kilter by that, and he wasn’t the same afterward. That was 20 starts into the season. Plus, he started the season still needing some spring training, he scuffled in his first few starts, but in the 18 start stretch from there, he had a 3.11 ERA. And he has had long (10+ games) streaks like this in 2012 and 2013 as well, covering half a season roughly, so when he’s healthy, it appears, he’s able to get hitters out.
So the skill has been there (unless you think 3.11 over 18 starts is a fluke). As the author noted, Lincecum has still been good at getting swinging strikes, so that skill is still there. He has been changing his process to account for his lessened velocity, focusing more on inducing weak contact instead of going for the strikeouts. That is, becoming a pitcher. He has also started attending the pitcher-catcher pre-game meetings to learn where not to pitch to hitters. Of course, if his hip health is preventing him from throwing to his spots consistently, that don’t matter.
I wouldn’t give him a big money contract, but I would definitely give him a low base ($1-3M) plus incentives for games started at 20, 25, and 30, say a $1M per. I don’t expect the Giants to offer him a starting job, at best, he’ll get something like Vogelsong’s job last season as long reliever, first starter if needed. I think he wants to start and will go to the team that gives him that opportunity, which, if the Giants execute as planned, there will be no spot for him to compete for in their rotation, and thus this is good-bye.
Frankly, I think he should just go Eckersley and sell himself as a super-utility rubber-armed reliever who can long relief, set-up, close, or spot start. Look at all the articles now suddenly discovering the wonders of an elite bullpen, and justifying paying them in the $10M range now. He can still make very good money as a reliever.
Plus, the rest in between appearances, as well as less innings, will help to keep his hips healthy. The surgery might have fixed the issues that was affecting him, but pitching as a starter clearly is what causes that hip problem, so starting would just put him down that path again, accelerated because of the innings thrown. I would take a low base contract, just to get the opportunity, but with incentives for appearances at 30, 40, 50, 60 and so on, and prove the concept in 2016, then he could probably get a multi-year contract doing the super-utility reliever role. And I would use his 2012 playoff usage as an example of what he can do in this role.
I’d like the braves to go after him. They need a veteran arm and a good club house guy.
Come to San Diego Timmy, throw that 3rd no hitter of yours in Petco. This guy is a team player who will do whatever it takes to win.
Agree! Petco would be a great park for him, and it would be even more fun to see him no-hit the Giants there! :^)
Will you stop it? Everyone knows the Giants are going to re-sign Timmy for at least $10m.
If he is healthy enough to stay on the mound, I think he ultimately ends up as the Giants’ closer.