The Reds are known to be entertaining offers on all of their players, and ESPN’s Jayson Stark spoke to an exec with a rival club that is convinced third baseman Todd Frazier is “legitimately out there” as a trade piece, albeit only for a significant return (links to Twitter). According to Stark, the Reds are prioritizing young talent that is Major-League-ready in trades for either Frazier or closer Aroldis Chapman. ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote yesterday (Insider subscription required) that he spoke to an NL evaluator and was told that the Reds “aren’t pushing Frazier at all,” so it doesn’t sound like the Reds feel any urgency to move him (not that one would expect an aggressive push to move a player of Frazier’s caliber at this point in the year with multiple seasons of club control remaining).
Stark doesn’t list a preference between position players or hitters — perhaps because Cincinnati doesn’t truly have one; talent is talent — but most of the Reds’ top prospects are on the pitching side of the equation. Outside of top organizational prospect Jesse Winker, the team’s best hitting prospects are mostly in the lower levels of the minor leagues. For a team that is open to dealing its third baseman, second baseman (Brandon Phillips) and right fielder (Jay Bruce), that leaves plenty of openings around the diamond — especially considering Billy Hamilton‘s underwhelming bat to this point in his career. (That’s not to suggest that Cincinnati has given up on Hamilton, but rather that he’ll need to hit more than he has at some point.)
The price to acquire Frazier will — and should — be steep. The reigning Home Run Derby champ is set to turn 30 years old in February and is coming off a pair of seasons in which he has combined to bat .262/.322/.479 with 64 homers and well-above-average defense at third base. Frazier is also affordable, as his 2016 salary is locked in at $7.5MM by virtue of a two-year deal signed prior to the 2015 season. He’ll be arbitration eligible once again next offseason and is a free agent after the 2017 season.
The primary red flags with Frazier will be his woeful 2015 second half and his production (or lack thereof) away from the hitter-friendly confines of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. Frazier was hitting .284/.337/.585 with 25 homers prior to the 2015 All-Star Game, but he batted just .224/.270/.390 with 10 homers in 72 second-half games. Checking out his home/road splits, Frazier has batted .281/.341/.537 at home over the past two seasons compared to .247/.304/.421 on the road. Many players tend to hit better at home regardless of park factor, but the notable discrepancy between Frazier’s home and road production figures to at least be some cause for concern for teams that play in pitcher-friendly environments.
Regardless of home/road splits, Frazier is capable, at worst, of producing league-average offense (he has a wRC+ of 99 on the road) with an above-average bat at third base. Two years of that skill set alone would have some value, but considering that’s more or less the floor on Frazier, while the ceiling is that of a legitimate superstar, multiple big-league-ready assets will probably need to be in play for Cincinnati to seriously consider parting with him.
Chapman is projected to earn $12.9MM in 2016 by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. That will be Chapman’s final year of club control before free agency, so with one year of control at top-of-the-market money, he comes with less trade value than Frazier. Nevertheless, it’s easy enough to envision a team being willing to part with an MLB-ready asset and another lower-level piece or two in order to secure a season of Chapman’s 100mph+ dominance.
Teams that could conceivably look for help at third base include the White Sox, Angels, Astros, Padres and possibly the Tigers, to name a few. There’s always a wide swath of teams seeking bullpen help — particularly when the reliever in question ranks among the game’s two or three best arms — and Chapman has recently been connected to the Yankees, Astros, Diamondbacks, Tigers and Red Sox (though Boston’s trade for Craig Kimbrel would certainly seem to take them out of the Chapman market).
Hey Steve, any idea on what the Frazier deal would look like? I’d imagine a cost controlled young SP, a close to ML SP and a upside position player could do it depending on who that controlled SP is. I saw one recommendation on another article as Quintana, Montas, and Courtney Hawkins for Frazier, and an upside prospect Not sure how that looks though
Hawkins’ stock is in the tank, and I can’t see Hahn giving up five years of Quintana (plus six of Montas) for two years of Frazier. I’m sure the Reds would probably take the five seasons of Quintana, but that’s just not a realistic scenario to me.
As I said above (in the article), most of the Reds’ top prospects are pitchers, so getting an MLB-ready bat plus another couple of upper-level pieces would be a reasonable goal for Cincinnati in my eyes.
I guess I don’t consider the White Sox a great match in a trade, even though the need is there on Chicago’s end. Avisail Garcia is the *type* of player I’d think would interest Cincinnati — controllable corner outfielder — but he himself has been terrible every time he’s sniffed the Majors, and I can’t see him garnering much interest.
So you want to give up 3 years of Quintana, 6 years on Montas, and 4 years of Hawkins for 2 years of an unreliable 3rd baseman? You might be the real Hawk Harrelson because that is a homer of a trade.
Unreliable? In what way? Frazier is a very good 3B and to my memory always been healthy. I’d say Quintana plus is about right, but Montas is probably too much for the “plus.” Not unless the Reds take one of the Sox’ bad contracts back.
quintana comes with 5 years of control. it is frazier plus for quintana not the other way around.
^ agreed this is what I was getting at
Reds aren’t going to go making deals for pitching. They need position players. If they have to add additional players, they aren’t making a deal for a pitcher
just speaking in terms of value, quintana isn’t as young as they would want back anyway
Perhaps you’ve missed Frazier’s play on the road and in the 2nd half of 2015. Unreliable, indeed.
Perhaps you missed his .262 average, 64 homers, and above average glove over the past two seasons.
At the end of the day, numbers are numbers whether they come at home or on the road. No team is going to say “we don’t want you to hit 35 hrs because you hit too many of them at home.”
not totally true. Coors Field has made many hitters numbers look much better, so acquiring Rockies hitters has a lot of red flags attached. This past year, Troy Tulowitzski hit .300 for the Rocks and .239 for the Jays. But in the case of Cincinnati, the home-road numbers don’t suggest a significant advantage of playing at the Great American Ballpark.
Unreliable?
By what sense?
Referring to his home and away splits. I guess unreliable was the wrong word choice. I’m saying he’s not perfect and comes with a risk, especially if it’s for an elite pitcher such as Q.
Farzier’s not perfect, but Quintana is? He has his share of faults as well. Granted, he might end up being great, but he’s not there yet. And he might also end up as nothing more than an innings eater.
the last 3 years quintana is 9th among war for all pitcher per fwar. he is much more than an innings eater. he is not an ace. but a number 2 on a ridiculously team friendly deal for his prime years.
@jedihoyer not many people realize that Quintana is actually that good. He doesn’t have one standout tool but he is just consistent in a mark buehrle-esque mold for the white sox where he is highly dependable year in year out
fwar is one stat. And I didn’t call him an innings eater, I said he may end up as nothing more than an innings eater. Besides if everyone agreed on talent evaluation, then trades would never happen.
I rather have an innings eater putting up possible sub-4 ERA then a player who sucks outside of Cincinnati.
To each their own.
Not really my trade idea and I highly doubt Quintana and Montas would be packaged for someone like frazier I’d rather see them go after someone much larger and id personally say quintana for frazier + would be what I’d go after
What? You waaay overrate Todd Frazier. Quintana = 4.8 War, Frazier = 4.4 WAR and Quintana is cheaper, younger, and signed longer. Why pray tell should the Sox add more? I swear some Sox fans care more about home run derbies and sports center highlights than winning. Frazier has awful H/R splits, he’s a low OBP, low batting average player (we’ve seen those before) and he has 2 years of control. His 2nd half in 2015 was embarrassing. Sox need to stay far away from Todd Frazier. Further, the Sox have holes at C, SS, LF, RF and in the pen to fill.
You can’t really compare WAR between pitchers and position players. It doesn’t really compute properly.
One year of Chapman and two years of Frazier…Cincy better temper their expectations on the trade returns. Controlled time is as important as OBP these days. I would guess teams who are in their win-now window would be the only trade partners. Frazier would be perfect in Houston. Chapman…well, 100 mph plays well anywhere.
I agree if they keep chapman they get a comp pick, which sits between first and second round. So don’t expect to some to over pay. Maybe they will over pay at the deadline.
Depends on the team really, where they are on the win curve and whom they have in the minors. For some teams, a two year commitment is right in the sweet spot. You get a player’s prime years but nothing after, and then get a draft pick when he leaves. That’s perfect if you’re competing now and have some potential replacements in your system, much better than taking on a $5-100m contract or what have you.
Disagree. There are always plenty of teams who think they are 1 or 2 pieces away and both Frazier and Chapman could be real difference makers.
The Reds should expect a good return for both of them
Good…but not sky-high, which is what the price this past trade deadline. They need to come down some in what they should expect.
man i would love for the pirates to get frazier so the pirates don’t have to pitch to him if for no other reason. Too many times with the game on the line and Frazier up he would hit a home run or a RBI double… something…
I was thinking the same thing. Fraizer always finds a way to stick it to the Pirates. I wonder if something centered around Harold Ramirez could get the job done
the other issue is where to put him. Todd has some Experience at first. Correct me if i’m wrong but wasn’t Todd a first basemen but with the Reds having Votto he moved to 3rd?
Pirates definitely got a small surplus of quality OF’s. I would say one of our fringe starters like a Locke, a near MLB ready position prospect like a Bell, Hanson or Diaz and a pitching prospect, not like one of our top ones of course but like a Kuhl (sp?) or Holmes. If nothing else would get the conversation started,
Might be to costly to consider especially if they think of Bell as the everyday first basemen after this year.
Frazier would at least start the season at third. Jung ho Kang won’t be ready to start the season, and Josh Harrison is not a very good defensive third baseman. Then when everyone is healthy, Frazier could shift over to first. The Pirates would love to not rush Bell to Pittsburgh if they don’t have to.
Frazier was a SS through the minors. Played 1st while Votto was hurt.
thanks for the correction.
Reds are stalling….still plenty of offseason left but I feel like Red Sox were their best bet for a deal for chapman. I’d rather trade Frazier at the deadline if he is having a good first half, his value has slightly declined from his 2nd half performance last season. I wonder if any teams wouldn’t be interested in a big swap with a chapman and Frazier package.
I think the White Sox should make a play for Frazier. Would Frankie Montas and a low level A+ pitcher get it done?
Not enough, or really even close. Frazier had a bad 2nd half but before that, he was genuine MVP material, and is cheap. White Sox don’t sniff him without Rodon or Quintana.
Montas + Johnson/Sanchez ?
probably not, montas is super risky. maybe montas, johnson, fulmer. but thats a lot to give up. maybe danish instead of montas.
rodon and quintana are more valuable than frazier. you must be a cincy fan.
Value, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder. Carlos Rodon or Jose Quintana would not hold as much value to the Mets as they would to the Rockies due to other holdings of the team. Likewise Frazier would be very valuable to a team needing a solid bat and a very good 3B like the White Sox or Braves, but not as valuable to a team with a solid 3B like the Cubs or Rockies. It’s all in the needs.
i think teams would value them the same, however there are better fits. just because i have fransisco lindor and correa wouldnt mean they have less value if i wanted to deal one.
Regardless of how good any player on either side is compared to each other, the bottom line I think is the Reds won’t be interested in a trade centered around either Rodon or Quintana.
The Reds need bats. They already have about 37 young SP
Nonsense. Quintana or Rodon are both far more valuable than Frazier. And Sox fans need to give up this fascination with Frazier. Low obp, low batting average, horrible splits and horrible second half of 2015. Only 2 years of control.
Would the Braves dare go after Frazier? With a package of Tehran, Maybin and prospects?
The Braves hardly seem like contending in 2016 is an immediate goal, and Frazier is only controlled through 2017. They can control Teheran for five more years. I don’t see the logic in that suggestion from their end.
They need a 3B, and would have money to resign him when his contract is up.
What he ^ said.
Belliard said it perfectly. We need a 3B desperately. BP, 3B and Catcher are our three biggest areas of need and I don’t know that one is more important than the other. Getting Frazier would soften the blow of the Simmons trade and I think would at least help us put together a competitive team for 2016 if some other moves are made.
No one should expect playoffs from the Braves next year but I don’t think you can say we won’t try to compete. So far we haven’t adopted the the tank for picks thought process… at least not fully.
We would have the money to resign him after 2017 if they haven’t already found their 3B of the future. Not to mention a guy with the power of Frazier would go a VERY long way in attracting people to the new stadium in 2017.
I think Teheran would have to be in any package for Frazier. Maybin would probably have to be in there as well, but I’m not sure what else they would need to finish it out. They have pitching prospects and that is where we have an abundance.
Yes, Teheran is affordable and controllable, however, if we used him to highlight a package of prospects for Frazier we’d be doing what the FO has suggested and trade for middle-of-the-order hitting. For what it’s worth, Teheran isn’t at the height of his value but was also a Wren-signing, not Hart/Coppy. They’d be getting future money off the books, while possibly setting us up for a nice extension. Austin Riley isn’t MLB-ready, but we like him for a long-term fit, at 3B or otherwise.
I’m not convinced that JT hasn’t bottomed out with his worth. Maybe I am wrong, but I have no issue with trading him away right now. We have too many other young starters on the roster who will be able to take his place.
Riley should be the future 3B but that is still at least 2 years away. He likely won’t see MLB time until 2018 or 2019.
If we were to get someone like Frazier it would knock out one of the major needs of the team. It would be one less issue that we have to worry about and allow us to focus on other major needs like the BP or catcher. Also by the end of 2017 if Frazier doesn’t want to resign with us we are in a lot better position with Austin Riley at that point that we are now.
That’s a lot of risk – giving up prospects for someone that might walk after ’17 – but it’s definitely more feasible than signing a B-I-G free agent deal to reignite fan interest going into the new stadium. Agreed, we could fill in for Teheran by that time easily barring a catastrophe.
It would largely depend on what the prospect(s) were that they wanted in return. I’m okay giving away Teheran because I think we have his equal (or better) in the system. I think they would be ready to go either at spring training or All Star break at the latest. I’m fine with Maybin going because Mallex Smith will be here this year by the All Star break. It would largely depend on who else would be needed to make the trade go through.
We won’t be able to sign a huge free agent. We will give 1 or 2 people a $20M deal and that’s it. We just don’t have the budget that Yankees or Dodgers do to have multiple big contracts.
Frazier I think would be in the $15M range by the end of 2017. If he stays there then I think we could make a good run at locking him up for another few years. Or if Riley is ready then we could give him a QO and walk away happy.
Either way we have to do something QUICK for 3B because Garcia is not an everyday player and Rio Ruiz doesn’t seem to have what it takes to play at the MLB level.
The trade value of Chapman should be 1/2 or even 1/3rd of Kimbrel, because there is only one year of control.
Fulmer for Chapman would be fair for the Tigers and Reds. I would not go any higher.
Except any trade value equation would have more variables than just years of control. Chapman is still a fairly young lights out closer, the Reds won’t settle for just Fulmer.
Then you would not get Chapman and your division rival might. Teams won’t want to take that chance, so they will overpay. Especially with the only close comparable, Kimbrel, off the market.
Tigers logic might be that Fulmer (or maybe Norris) as a short term temporary closer (2016 only) may be 80% of Chapman right now, without giving up anything.
Except even if someone believes Fulmer is 80% of the value of Chapman next year, how certain are they of even that fact. On one hand you have a top established closer, on the other you have a prospect who hasn’t pitched in the majors yet.
You may think they have equal value but I garuentee if the Tigers and Reds sat down in trade talks and the Tigers said “we’ll give you Fulmer and nothing else” then that conversation is over.
The Reds already have several starting prospects of Michael Fulmer’s caliber. He’s not a fit for the Reds, nor is he MLB ready.
I feel that the Reds already took what they wanted from the Tigers’ system last year when they traded Alfredo Simon. Although I like Norris.
Really, however, any team that acquires Chapman is getting a year of the best closer in baseball and a supplemental draft pick if he leaves. I agree, though, he likely won’t bring the depth of return that did Kimbrel.
Same depth, no. The Reds would be foolish to expect 4 prospects, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect 1 elite or 2 good prospects
It’ll take more than Fulmer…and I’m a big fan of Fulmer (as a Met fan it hurt for him to go).
Before the discussion gets too deep into proposing deals, I think it’s worth bringing this quote from Walt Jocketty up again. From an MLBTR article a few days ago:
“The Astros and Cubs ‘were losing for a long time and a lot of markets can’t do that,’ says Reds president Walt Jocketty. ‘We can’t do that in our market.'”
It seems to me that that means one of two things:
1. Either they won’t tear it down completely at all, or
2. They will want major-league or near-ML-ready talent in return for anybody they trade.
That’s what the article already says. They want MLB ready players in return. Jocketty’s quote pretty much says just that.
For what it’s worth, John Hart said the same thing last year.
If I am Jocketty and I know my time as a big league GM is coming to a close, then I wouldn’t want to take part in an all out rebuild either. It’s fine for a 35 year old GM, because he has time to build a winner. Jocketty is only going to be around for another year or two max. I can’t blame him for trying to build a winner for his last hurrah.
Jocketty has already said he’ll retain control for 2016, and will move into an advisor role for new GM Williams in 2017.
The Reds are clearly gearing towards 2017 or 2018, when many of their young pitchers will be ready. What the organization generally lacks is young hitting to help in that time period.
I dont feel this will necessarily work for Jocketty. A majority of the success from teams like the Cubs and Astros is through the draft. Teams would be dumb to keep a prospect all the way to the point where they are finally able to play in the majors, and trade them for short term control of another major league ready player. Jocketty is trying to rebuild without the pain of rebuilding.
I agree that Jocketty is trying to rebuild without the pain of rebuilding… but I see it a different way.
The Reds were reasonably competitive from 2010-2013, although in that time he made few trades of young players. Grandal, Alonso, and Boxberger left in the Latos trade, but he otherwise kept the farm system intact. He’s treated the prospects like valuable assets, rather than expendable chips to send away every month.
Now Baseball America is calling it a top 10 farm system, despite the team not yet even making its #2 overall pick. Out of major rebuilding trades of Latos, Simon, Cueto, and Latos only John Lamb, Cody Reed, and Keury Mella qualify as (noteworthy) prospects, so it’s not like they added some top 10 guy to raise the system. The Reds organization doesn’t have a barren farm system, and the organization doesn’t need to be burnt to the ground and restarted from scratch – aside from a RF, 3b, and perhaps SS and CF, they have all the talent they need to be competitive in the farm system already. It’s here, much of it has been developing for years.
Seemingly the Reds have quietly planned for years to avoid an Astros-esq teardown, starting their rebuild with a strong farm system.
steve adams, i believe you meant position players or pitchers, not position players or hitters in the first sentence of your second paragraph.
How about the mets trade for Frazier and move David wright to shortstop
David Wright will need to move to 1b to further his career.
CIN will ask for too much…just like everyone else who wants an elite arm+ from the Mets. I’m not sold on Frazier, as his 1st / 2nd half split was scary. His numbers away from Cincy are concerning too. I love Chapman, but I hope the Mets run away from him bc someone is going to over-pay.
Pirates and Astros could make a run. the astros could afford both Chap and Frazier.
I wonder if one of Holmes/De Leon plus Ronald Torreyes for Frazier could get it done for Frazier.
Frazier isn’t elite, isn’t controllable for very long, and to be quite frank, isn’t very good away from GABP (.246/.310/.429).
1 top 100 prospect and another prospect that looks like a potential every day infielder or a very good utility man for 2 years of Frazier seems like a good fit.
The dodgers have turner for this year and next year.
He can play 2B.
don’t the Dodgers still have Guerrero? Verdugo and DeLeon might help push Frazier to the Dodgers…but Turner has been more than solid.
They do still have Guerrero, but he was awful last year.
You could go with Frazier/Seager/Turner/Gonzalez as your INF and maybe trade Peraza to help fill in the void left by Greinke.
Holmes and De Leon are attractive possibilities. The Reds had Torreyes originally. Not sure they’d necessarily want him back.
they already have kiki gonzales, alex guererro and jose peraza. they have no need for more IF’s
I think it’s worth clarifying that the Reds have lots of close-to-MLB ready starting pitchers, but they arguably lack top of the rotation arms. Maybe, in one of these trades, they will target someone nearly ready with top-of-the-rotation potential. Someone who looks like a future 3, 4, or 5 starter probably won’t interest the Reds, regardless of the rotation’s problems in 2015.
The organization’s greatest need continues to be hitting, where a young RF, CF, 3b, and SS might all be welcome alongside LF Winker, SS Suarez, 2b Blandino, and OF Ervin. The organization has no real successor for Frazier.
I think the Red’s and Dbacks pitchers compare favorably in terms of depth and talent and yet the dbacks still pursue the top arms as the reds should as well. Cost controlled arms that can slot in at 1 or 2 are always valuable to a rebuiliding team
I just wanted to distinguish between needing top arms and any arm to help fill out their rotation. They can stand to add more of the former, but are likely looking at pushing members of the later group into their bullpen.
The Reds will likely have 4 of their top young pitchers in their AAA rotation and 5 more in AA, assuming Lorenzen and Lamb make the Reds. Last year the Reds had some trouble filling the upper minors, relying on veteran scrubs and such, but now they can barely find rotation spots for everyone. Back to the point, I think that depth is relevant to the caliber of pitchers they might look to add. VERY good, or not at all. Oh yeah, or young relievers.
Would love to see Frazier playing the hot corner for the Angels but with Newcomb already traded there in almost zero possibility of acquiring him.
Like to see Cubs get Chapman but dont see it happening. They have other greater needs.
I’d take any young position player the Cubs have to offer.
Soler and Baez for Chapman and probably a young pitcher? Thoughts?
Absolutely no chance Jed and Theo trade two of their most valuable prospects in Soler and Baez for one year of control for a closer. He’s made it apparent he wouldn’t give up years of winning for one. They also dont tend to trade their young guys for someone else’s ‘old’ guys, just not their style.
The Cubs would have the money to potentially extend him though, and if not they’d get a compensation pick so really it’s more than just the 1 year of control
Too much for 1yr. I can see Castro (whom I think is overrated), a lower A/AA guy, and money.
I doubt the Reds would have any interest in Castro. Just not the type of player they are looking to add right now, i.e. old and expensive versus young and controllable
it would be baez as there is still huge bust potential to where he might only be a utility guy. soler is at the least a league average starter already with a big celing. baez + some low minors arm straight up for chapman is kind of fair. but people are either high or low on baez and dont realize there is an in between that still has value. guy with power that can play all infield positions is a good bench piece even if he never makes enough contact.
I think there could be something there.
The Reds are really looking for OF help, but if Frazier and/or Phillips gets traded they could see slotting Baez into the IF.
I’d love to be a fly on the wall to hear Jocketty and Williams talking that one over
Or Schwarber for Chapman, straight up.
…a man can dream, right?
The Red Sox asked about Chapman first. Then gave up 4 good prospects for Kimbrel . Sounds like the Reds are acting like the Phillies did last year., demanding 2 of Betts, Boegarts and Swihart for Hamels. Either the Reds get real or their not moving anyone.
Seattle Mariners should also be in the running for Ardonis Chapman w/ Votto or Jay Bruce as the team is in a win mode after missing the playoffs for past 14 years. Chapman can slide in as a closer, while both Joaquin Benoit
Seattle Mariners should also be in the running for Ardonis Chapman w/ Votto or Jay Bruce as the team is in a win mode after missing the playoffs for past 14 years. Chapman can slide in as a closer, while both Joaquin Benoit & Carson Smith can slide in as setup roles. As the Mariners in need of desperate offense help, what players besides Alex Jackson, D.J. peterson, and Taijuan Walker do the Reds want to pull off the deal? Luis Sardinas (just acquired from the Reds) is one of the pieces the Reds can consider since Phillips may not return to Cincy.