As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. Many MLB teams and agencies reference our projections in their work. You won’t find anything else like this on the Internet! The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2015 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).
Service time data, the Super Two cutoff, and the 2016 MLB minimum salary are not yet official or known. We’re using 2.130 for the Super Two cutoff and $508K for the MLB minimum here. In general, if you see any inaccuracies or have questions, please leave a comment or contact us. Also, please note that we’ve fixed some errors from the original version of this post.
Angels (6)
- Fernando Salas (5.048) – $2.2MM
- Cesar Ramos (5.003) – $1.7MM
- Hector Santiago (4.016) – $5.1MM
- Collin Cowgill (3.151) – $1.0MM
- Garrett Richards (3.148) – $6.8MM
- Kole Calhoun (2.130) – $3.6MM
Astros (8)
- Luis Valbuena (5.148) – $5.8MM
- Jason Castro (5.104) – $4.6MM
- Hank Conger (4.051) – $1.8MM
- Chris Carter (3.159) – $5.6MM
- Marwin Gonzalez (3.133) – $1.9MM
- Dallas Keuchel (3.089) – $6.4MM
- Josh Fields (3.000) – $800K
- Evan Gattis (3.000) – $3.4MM
Athletics (15)
- Ike Davis (5.155) – $3.8MM
- Sam Fuld (5.140) – $2.0MM
- Jesse Chavez (5.108) – $4.7MM
- Josh Reddick (5.050) – $7.0MM
- Craig Gentry (4.125) – $1.6MM
- Danny Valencia (4.118) – $3.4MM
- Fernando Abad (4.073) – $1.5MM
- Eric Sogard (4.064) – $1.7MM
- Brett Lawrie (4.055) – $3.9MM
- Felix Doubront (4.041) – $2.5MM
- Fernando Rodriguez (4.032) – $1.3MM
- Jarrod Parker (4.000) – $850K
- Drew Pomeranz (3.013) – $1.3MM
- A.J. Griffin (3.000) – $508K
- Evan Scribner (2.142) – $700K
Blue Jays (9)
- Brett Cecil (5.152) – $3.4MM
- Michael Saunders (5.138) – $2.9MM
- Justin Smoak (5.077) – $2.0MM
- Ben Revere (4.149) – $6.7MM
- Josh Thole (4.126) – $1.8MM
- Josh Donaldson (3.158) – $12.0MM
- Drew Hutchison (3.128) – $2.6MM
- Aaron Loup (3.083) – $900K
- Steve Delabar (3.008) – $700K
Braves (5)
- Mike Minor (4.138) – $5.6MM
- Pedro Ciriaco (3.049) – $800K
- Shelby Miller (3.030) – $4.9MM
- Arodys Vizcaino (2.168) – $1.1MM
- Chris Withrow (2.132) – $600K
Brewers (3)
- Jean Segura (3.065) – $3.2MM
- Wily Peralta (3.033) – $2.8MM
- Will Smith (2.155) – $1.2MM
Cardinals (7)
- Brandon Moss (5.160) – $7.9MM
- Peter Bourjos (5.062) – $1.8MM
- Steve Cishek (4.143) – $7.1MM
- Tony Cruz (4.105) – $1.0MM
- Trevor Rosenthal (3.058) – $6.5MM
- Matt Adams (3.033) – $1.5MM
- Seth Maness (2.154) – $1.2MM
Cubs (8)
- Clayton Richard (5.154) – $1.1MM
- Chris Coghlan (5.148) – $3.9MM
- Travis Wood (5.004) – $6.4MM
- Pedro Strop (4.156) – $4.7MM
- Jake Arrieta (4.145) – $10.4MM
- Ryan Cook (3.086) – $1.4MM
- Hector Rondon (3.000) – $3.6MM
- Justin Grimm (2.170) – $1.0MM
Diamondbacks (8)
- Daniel Hudson (5.117) – $2.0MM
- Josh Collmenter (5.000) – $2.8MM arbitration projection; has a $1.825MM club option.
- Matt Reynolds (4.046) – $800K
- Welington Castillo (4.009) – $3.6MM
- Patrick Corbin (3.105) – $2.3MM
- Randall Delgado (3.100) – $1.0MM
- Rubby De La Rosa (3.097) – $3.2MM
- A.J. Pollock (3.052) – $4.3MM
Dodgers (9)
- A.J. Ellis (5.151) – $4.5MM
- Kenley Jansen (5.073) – $11.4MM
- Justin Turner (5.045) – $5.3MM
- Juan Nicasio (4.084) – $3.1MM
- Yasmani Grandal (3.115) – $2.7MM
- Luis Avilan (3.077) – $1.1MM
- Joe Wieland (3.027) – $508K
- Scott Van Slyke (2.151) – $1.2MM
- Chris Hatcher (2.146) – $900K
Giants (4)
- Yusmeiro Petit (5.016) – $2.4MM
- Brandon Belt (4.128) – $6.2MM
- Hector Sanchez (3.113) – $900K
- George Kontos (2.171) – $1.0MM
Indians (7)
- Josh Tomlin (4.151) – $3.1MM
- Bryan Shaw (4.081) – $2.8MM
- Lonnie Chisenhall (3.158) – $3.0MM
- Zach McAllister (3.077) – $1.0MM
- Cody Allen (3.076) – $3.5MM
- Nick Hagadone (3.056) – $600K
- Jeff Manship (2.130) – $700K
Mariners (3)
- Mark Trumbo (5.027) – $9.1MM
- Charlie Furbush (4.121) – $1.7MM
- Anthony Bass (3.148) – $1.1MM
- Leonys Martin (3.063) – $3.75MM*
Marlins (9)
- Aaron Crow (5.000) – $1.975MM
- Henderson Alvarez (4.051) – $4.0MM
- David Phelps (3.156) – $2.5MM
- Dee Gordon (3.154) – $5.9MM
- Adeiny Hechavarria (3.060) – $2.3MM
- A.J. Ramos (3.030) – $2.8MM
- Tom Koehler (3.016) – $3.9MM
- Bryan Morris (3.011) – $1.1MM
- Carter Capps (3.007) – $800K
- Jose Fernandez (3.000) – $2.2MM
Mets (8)
- Ruben Tejada (4.171) – $2.5MM
- Lucas Duda (4.137) – $6.8MM
- Addison Reed (4.002) – $5.7MM
- Carlos Torres (3.114) – $800K
- Jenrry Mejia (3.085) – $2.6MM
- Matt Harvey (3.072) – $4.7MM
- Jeurys Familia (3.030) – $3.3MM
- Josh Edgin (3.015) – $600K
Nationals (9)
- Craig Stammen (5.160) – $2.4MM
- Drew Storen (5.140) – $8.8MM
- Stephen Strasburg (5.118) – $10.5MM
- Wilson Ramos (5.047) – $5.3MM
- Jose Lobaton (4.138) – $1.5MM
- Danny Espinosa (4.113) – $2.7MM
- Tyler Moore (3.018) – $1.0MM
- Anthony Rendon (2.130) – $2.5MM
Orioles (10)
- Brian Matusz (5.156) – $3.4MM
- Nolan Reimold (5.113) – $900K
- Paul Janish (4.156) – $600K
- Chris Tillman (4.113) – $6.2MM
- Miguel Gonzalez (4.095) – $4.9MM
- Ryan Flaherty (4.000) – $1.5MM
- Zach Britton (3.158) – $6.9MM
- Vance Worley (3.112) – $2.7MM
- Brad Brach (3.063) – $1.1MM
- Manny Machado (3.056) – $5.9MM
- David Lough (2.149) – $800K
Padres (8)
- Marc Rzepczynski (5.132) – $3.0MM
- Andrew Cashner (5.126) – $7.0MM
- Cory Luebke (5.033) – $5.25MM arbitration projection; has a $7.5MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout.
- Tyson Ross (4.126) – $10.0MM
- Yonder Alonso (4.116) – $2.5MM
- Derek Norris (3.102) – $3.4MM
- Will Middlebrooks (3.057) – $1.5MM
- Brett Wallace (3.003) – $1.1MM
Phillies (4)
- Jeremy Hellickson (5.045) – $6.6MM
- Andres Blanco (5.007) – $1.0MM
- Jeanmar Gomez (4.063) – $1.5MM
- Freddy Galvis (3.021) – $1.9MM
Pirates (9)
- Neil Walker (5.166) – $10.7MM
- Francisco Cervelli (5.146) – $2.5MM
- Mark Melancon (5.098) – $10.0MM
- Chris Stewart (5.091) – $1.6MM
- Pedro Alvarez (5.085) – $8.1MM
- Tony Watson (4.101) – $4.6MM
- Jared Hughes (3.162) – $2.2MM
- Jordy Mercer (3.095) – $1.8MM
- Jeff Locke (3.020) – $3.5MM
Rangers (10)
- Mitch Moreland (5.067) – $5.6MM
- Tom Wilhelmsen (4.089) – $3.0MM
- Chris Gimenez (3.163) – $1.0MM
- Shawn Tolleson (3.122) – $2.6MM
- Tanner Scheppers (3.111) – $800K
- Robinson Chirinos (3.103) – $1.4MM
- Jake Diekman (3.049) – $1.0MM
- Jurickson Profar (2.167) – $508K
- Nick Tepesch (2.136) – $508K
Rays (11)
- Logan Morrison (5.069) – $4.1MM
- Jake McGee (4.127) – $4.7MM
- Logan Forsythe (4.113) – $3.3MM
- Desmond Jennings (4.101) – $3.1MM
- Rene Rivera (4.082) – $1.6MM
- Alex Cobb (4.061) – $4.0MM
- J.P. Arencibia (4.052) – $1.4MM
- Daniel Nava (4.045) – $1.9MM
- Drew Smyly (3.154) – $3.9MM
- Brandon Gomes (3.082) – $900K
- Brandon Guyer (3.066) – $1.3MM
- Erasmo Ramirez (2.158) – $2.8MM
Red Sox (5)
- Junichi Tazawa (5.086) – $3.3MM
- Anthony Varvaro (3.121) – $700K
- Joe Kelly (3.101) – $3.2MM
- Robbie Ross (3.100) – $1.1MM
- Jean Machi (2.154) – $900K
Reds (4)
- Aroldis Chapman (5.034) – $12.9MM
- Zack Cozart (4.084) – $2.9MM
- Ryan Mattheus (3.123) – $1.3MM
- J.J. Hoover (3.102) – $$1.1MM
Rockies (9)
- John Axford (5.170) – $6.5MM
- Adam Ottavino (4.087) – $1.6MM
- Jordan Lyles (4.060) – $2.8MM
- Rex Brothers (3.131) – $1.5MM
- DJ LeMahieu (3.128) – $3.7MM
- Wilin Rosario (3.123) – $3.2MM
- Charlie Blackmon (3.102) – $4.5MM
- Brandon Barnes (3.024) – $1.2MM
- Nolan Arenado (2.155) – $6.6MM
Royals (8)
- Greg Holland (5.028) – $11.3MM
- Drew Butera (5.018) – $1.1MM
- Mike Moustakas (4.111) – $5.7MM
- Tim Collins (4.097) – $1.475MM
- Jarrod Dyson (4.088) – $1.7MM
- Danny Duffy (4.085) – $4.0MM
- Lorenzo Cain (4.074) – $6.1MM
- Louis Coleman (3.018) – $1.0MM
Tigers (5)
- Neftali Feliz (5.151) – $5.2MM
- Al Alburquerque (4.147) – $2.1MM
- J.D. Martinez (4.036) – $7.8MM
- Andrew Romine (3.049) – $700K
- Jose Iglesias (3.036) – $1.5MM
Twins (6)
- Kevin Jepsen (5.163) – $6.0MM
- Trevor Plouffe (4.162) – $7.7MM
- Eduardo Nunez (4.090) – $1.5MM
- Casey Fien (3.143) – $2.2MM
- Tommy Milone (3.143) – $4.5MM
- Eduardo Escobar (3.128) – $1.8MM
White Sox (5)
- Tyler Flowers (4.148) – $3.5MM
- Nate Jones (4.000) – $900K
- Jacob Turner (3.033) – $1.0MM
- Dan Jennings (2.171) – $700K
- Avisail Garcia (2.167) – $2.3MM
- Zach Putnam (2.135) – $800K
Yankees (7)
- Ivan Nova (5.024) – $4.4MM
- Michael Pineda (4.099) – $4.6MM
- Dustin Ackley (4.087) – $3.1MM
- Nate Eovaldi (4.013) – $5.7MM
- Adam Warren (3.036) – $1.5MM
- Justin Wilson (3.035) – $1.3MM
- Didi Gregorius (2.159) – $2.1MM
*Original projection ($1.6MM) updated to reflect prior season’s salary.
Does the figure for Holland factor in his TJ surgery?
No, just his stats. But that figure means he’s all but certain to be non-tendered.
Why would they non-tender him and risk losing him to another team? I don’t think that will happen. His arbitration cost might go down, but he’ll definitely get signed
They’ll non tender him because no one is worth $12mm to do nothing but recover from TJ surgery. He was good before the injury but there’s no guarantee he’ll return to form. Most likely the team will seek a 2 year deal with a low salary for 2016 and a heavy incentive laden deal for 2017. With possibly an option year tacked on. But at any rate would cost far less than $12mm in wasted money.
In terms of Luebke’s inclusion under the Padres, would they actually be able to offer him arbitration after they buy out the option even if they wanted to?
And given that he’s going to again be rehabbing from surgery for at least a chunk of next year, once he’s bought out and, if necessary non-tendered, would they be able to sign him to a minor league deal, or would failing to offer him arbitration preclude that?
Yes, they could tender him a contract through arbitration after declining his option. And they non-tender him they could indeed sign him to a minor league deal.
Realistically he’s going to be bought out of his option and non-tendered. Hope he stays with us on a minor league deal tho cuz the guy was simply electric before he got injured.
Vance Worley should be on the Pirates list. Its unlikely they tender him but judging by the rest of the list I don’t think that really matters.
I’ll look into that one.
Worley is in now!
Wow, I guess I shoulda read the article yesterday probably explains why Shelby Miller is so low.
Corey Luebke is also on the 2015-16 Free Agents list on your site… can he be up for an option AND arbitration-eligible?
We need to drop him from the free agent list! Thanks.
I hope your operators will be standing by to put him back on the list when he’s non-tendered!
Anyone want to call out some early favorites for non-tender candidates?
Sure! Holland, Trumbo, Moss, Cishek, Hellickson, Axford, Valbuena, Chacin, Carter. Working on my list!
I’d put Craig Gentry, Felix Doubront, Ike Davis, and Evan Scribner as non-tender candidates.
I agree on Gentry, but Scribner is still exceptionally cheap and posted excellent peripherals outside of an extraordinarily high HR/FB%.
Ike Davis, Jordan Lyles, Domonic Brown, Neftali Feliz, Tyler Flowers, maybe Alexi Ogando and Felix Doubront.
No way on Jordan Lyles. Rockies aren’t giving away a plausible starting arm because of a couple million bucks!
Red Sox missing Josh Rutledge.
Will get back to you on that one!
Word is his service landed at 2.090, so he wouldn’t be eligible.
Really? I guess I should email Baseball Reference then because they’re the wrong ones on this one. Keep up the good work!
How is BRef wrong? They don’t have the numbers through 2016 up yet.
Awesome job, guys! Always interesting to see these numbers! I imagine the players, especially the 1st year eligibles, flock to this to see what they might make!
Would Reddick and Walker be trade candidates given their potential salaries? Their salaries aren’t terrible for their skillsets, but they seem like they’d be expensive to keep for their current clubs and neither would seem to be QO material next season.
Josh Harrison from the Pirates? Cot’s says that he’s in year 2 of arbitration. Did he sign an extension and I missed it?
He did indeed sign an extension back in April:
mlbtraderumors.com/2015/04/pirates-extend-josh-har…
Non-tender candidates for the Padres are Cory Luebke and Will Middlebrooks, MAYBE Marc Rzepczynski.
Harvey sets 1st year high water mark for SP. Donaldson resets the bar for year 2…?
I agree
Well, I’m sure the As will rest easy knowing they’re not on the hook for Donaldson’s 12MM.
Certainly part of the reason why they traded him, and why I don`t think the arb process is helping teams like Oakland and Tampa keep their great players throughout their team control like it probably should. Donaldson wouldn`t have had nearly the same numbers playing for Oakland though, so I don`t think they would`ve ended up on the hook for $12mm this offseason. Either way, I doubt Beane is resting easy knowing he gave up the probable MVP for players that I think underwhelmed this year. The only silver lining is that Barreto looks like a stud, but he`s still a ways away.
Yeah, it must be hard having to pay the probable AL MVP $12m
You project Dodgers Joe Wieland to get less in arbirtation than next years minimum salary.
They said at the top that they’re using 508K as their projected league minimum, which is what they projected Wieland for.
Ok 2nd try. Wieland with the Dodgers has to be offered more than the arb number listed as that would be below the league minimum for 2016.
We understand that the MLB minimum will go up a bit. We’re using $508K to represent an MLB min projection. If it goes up to $510K then that’s our Wieland projection.
I’d be tempted to non-tender every single Red Sox player… they’re all ineffective bullpen guys who are too expensive for AAA.
.
There seem to be some issues with your projections. A lot of your pitchers are getting salaries that are way too high given the comps from previous years. See Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Aroldys Chapman, John Axford, Jesse Chavez in particular. The salaries for those players need to be cut and/or your formula needs to be fixed.
Jon Jay??
How in the world can Mike Minor qualify for 5.6 Million in Arbitration when he didn’t even play last year. Should be maximum reduction of 20%, If not, how can any reduction ever be justified. If he gets a penny over $4.5 there is no justice in arbitration. He will probably sign a three year 15.0 million deal if he is smart, if not Braves should non-tender. He is an attitude problem anyway.
Donalsdon is under contract for another 2 years how come he still have arbitration for 2016?