12:47AM: Other sources tell Wittenmyer that no deal between the two sides is close. Jorge Soler is still a part of trade discussions between the Cubs and Braves (Twitter links).
12:35AM: The Braves and Cubs are close to a deal that would involve righty Shelby Miller going to Chicago and slugging infield prospect Javier Baez headed to Atlanta in the return, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports (Twitter link).
Miller has been one of the winter’s most oft-discussed trade candidates, with as many as 20 teams reportedly checking in on his availability. Atlanta has demanded a major return in any deal for the 25-year-old starter, with such names as the Diamondbacks’ A.J. Pollock, the Yankees’ Luis Severino and the Marlins’ Marcell Ozuna all being asked about in talks with their respective clubs. The Cubs were one of several teams linked with Miller, with Jorge Soler and Baez both being mentioned as possible trade chips.
Wow, Atlanta is really selling low on Shelby Miller.
No kidding. Javier the whiff, no thank you.
there is literally no way it’s just baez. There will be more to that deal. Also don’t knock baez already. Bat was improved when he came to the majors a second time. He’s still adjusting and learning. Potential superstar is still there.
There has to be more to it…. A straight 1 for 1 wouldn’t be fair at all.
ya…because Shelby Miller’s more than 3 BB per 9 innings pitch, less than 8 k’s per 9 and over 4.00 FIP and xFIP is so incredible???
Miller is being overvalued. He out-pitched his peripherals last season. His projections for next season is that of a number 3 or 4 in a rotation.
You guys obviously didn’t pay much attention to Baez last year, he cut his K% after realizing he didn’t have to murder every ball he swung at. I’m personally a touch miffed that we’re giving him up at all. You guys are going to love him.
He had 80 plate appearances (95 if you want to count the postseason). That’s not enough of a sample size to show serious improvement.
He didn’t just cut down on the strike outs at the ML level though. His K-rate in the minors was down to 23% in 2015 as opposed to 30% in 2014. Yes, he only had 80 plate appearances at the ML level in 2015. But in that sample size he was down to a 30% k-rate as opposed to his appalling 41% in 2014. 30% is still high but it is going in the right direction and a 11% drop within a single season is huge, and a 7% drop in the minors is huge as well. He’s only getting better.
As for Braves saying this is selling low on Miller…… you guys are the only people who value Miller as highly as you do. His ERA is artificially low when you look at his other stats. He walks a ton of guys too, 3.2BB/9IP. He had 73 BBs in 33 starts. That’s 2.2 per start. He struck out only about 5.2 batters per start as well. Hardly this shut down ace you all think he is. He’s a #2 or 3 quality SP at best. middle of the rotation if you will. 33% of hit balls off him are hard hit. He also has a VERY high fly ball rate, 38.6%. He’ll get murdered at Wrigley. While you’re all saying this is a bad deal for your Braves, stats and Cubs fans say this is a bad deal for the Cubs. Best case for Cubs fans is Baez doesn’t pan out, then this trade would be a wash. My prediction for Miller in 2016, 3.80 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 3.5BB/9, 7K/9. 4.10 FIP…….. which is way more OPTIMISTIC than what fangraphs thinks of him.
A couple of things, Fangraphs has Miller with a 34.1% Fly Ball rate, that is hardly “VERY high” (emphasis yours). In fact, that was basically middle of the road, and lower than a couple handfuls of upper echelon pitchers (including some pitchers at Wrigley and smaller ballparks, who did not get “murdered”)
Yes, his walk rate was high, but it’s comparable to pitchers such as Gallardo, Shields, Ross (the last two had a much higher BB/9).
As for “you guys are the only ones who value Miller as highly as you do”… ummm, no we’re not. Not even close. There’s a reason more than 20 teams have checked in on Shelby Miller. Their advanced scouts have likely seen a fit they thought could be of value to their team.
I do not believe he is worth A.J. Pollock, Joe Panik, or any team’s major core pieces, but I’m also not sold that Javier Baez is going to miraculously turn into some superstar for anyone either.
Based on passed experiences, Gordon Wittenmeyer has no real sources since the change in the front office. He seems angry at the team and constantly takes shots. He also just seems to report things for clicks. For example he has sources that say they are close and some that say they aren’t. This is him just throwing mud and hoping something sticks.
There it is folks!
Really Braves? Another prospect? We don’t need anymore of those. We need players that can play not be in the minors. I see that Baez did play in the majors but I didn’t see any good stats. I understand the rebuild but at least get some good players so we can win at least one game this season…
Baez does still have tons of potential. Still needs to prove it. Miller is a solid #2 though, will prob be the number 3 or 4 in Chicago though.
The braves just got done clearing the roster of all or nothing hitters. Baez has the potential to be a good player but he also has the potential to be a poor defender and league leader in strikeouts.. I hope this does not go though if all the braves get is baez.
Wow. Lack of knowledge here. Baez is an excellent defender. Don’t judge him based on the one error he made in the playoffs. He’s also a very good baserunner.
Six years of Baez control vs. three years of Miller. As a Cub fan, I wouldn’t like this trade.
That can’t be it if the trade concludes. Has to be more than baez
As a Cardinals fan, drat. Having Shelby as your #4 is a scary good rotation
Lol
Jorge Soler would seem like a more likely pull in return for Miller. Hard to believe Baez is the main piece, especially after John Hart said that they were “absolutely not in the mode” of shopping Miller. Maybe they see something in Baez that we don’t… Maybe.
course they do. You and everyone outside of chicago saw the first time he came up and k’d every other at bat. He’s still adjusting and learning and looked a lot better the second time around. Still 23 and you can see the potential still there.
Hart lied in order to get more.. He’s clearly pushing him since he’s talked to multiple teams about him. Braves are too cheap to pay his $7M in ’16 and $10M in ’17.
Bob Nightengale just said Cubs sand No Deal haha
*said
Yeah this isnt happening.
No deal apparently
The yankees should of got Shelby dammmmit !!!!! another one gone
It wasn’t based around Baez. That would be rediculous.
I don’t get it. The Braves whine and scream about wanting someone like A.J Pollock for Miller. Obviously doesn’t happen. They continue to huff and puff (via the media reports) about the kind of haul they expect for Miller. And now they are supposedly close to a deal for Javier Baez? Is there something about one of these two that no one knows about? Baez looks like a wreck offensively. He looks like a poor man’s Pedro Alvarez.
I think he will do well if and its a big if he can show more patience at the plate hes got all the tools to be a great player Yankees would love to have him
He’s got insane upside. He mashed in the minors while cutting down his K-rate considerably. he had a freak injury and an all around horrible year in his personal life yet raked at triple A. Plan was to call him up in August and trade Castro until Baez got injured. In the limited time he was up in september he looked like a completely different player than he did in 2014. Yes, he only had 80 plate appearances in September but he hit .289 in those plate appearances, which is way better than the .169 he hit in 2014 in 229 PAs.
I hope the Braves nix the deal or the Cubs come to their senses. Cubs are way better off with Baez than Miller. Miller is not as good as his ERA indicates if you look at his peripheral stats he’s put up in his career. Mediocre FIP, high fly ball rate, high “hard contact” rate, walks a ton of guys, doesn’t strike out enough for how many he walks. mediocre WHIP. But hey, despite all that he miraculously has a low ERA. I’d rather see them go after one of the injured Rays pitchers they’ve been rumored to be interested in than see them get Miller. Better yet, try and trade for Salazar out of Cleveland…….. or do a blockbuster deal with the Rays and trade Soler, Baez, Vogelbach, McKinney, and Hammel for Chris Archer and Jake McGee. Then immediately after that trade sign Heyward to a 10 year $200M deal with an opt out after 5 years. You essentially replace Soler with Heyward, Hammel with Archer, and Baez for McGee. Yeah it sucks they give up Soler Baez and McKinney, but they are LOADED with OF prospects, they can afford to cough up McKinney. Almora, Happ, dewees, Zagunis, Martinez, and Jimenez are all just as promising as McKinney. Vogelbach is forever blocked by Rizzo. So while the Cubs lose 5 guys in the deal and only get 2 back, it really isn’t much of a loss as long as they ink Heyward to a deal.
Projected 1.5 WAR for Baez next year vs. 1.7 for Miller. Let’s not forget, last year at this time, Shelby Miller looked cooked. He’s as much of a prospect as Baez is, and Baez is under control longer at a more premium position.
You guys are crazy. Baez looks like a legit 40-20 guy. Sure the batting average might not be at 300 but who on the braves has that potential?
I have to disagree with most of you, I think that this would be more of a bad trade for the Cubs. Baez has tremendous power for a middle infielder and also has great range at his position. His upside is way more than Miller’s who may not improve at all with last season’s performance. His projected stats seem to reflect that as well. The Cubs would basically be getting a slightly above average # 3 guy in the rotation, while the Braves would potentially be getting a future All Star SS or 2B. As far as the possible trade for Soler, I only think that trade would be a good idea if the Cubs had intentions of acquiring Heyward. Otherwise, it leaves even more gaps in the Cubs outfield which is not strong defensively and especially weak in CF.
How long does it take for comments to post?
To all of the people don’t think miller not worth top hitting prospect I found interesting stats for you
Age 25 plays
Play—w—L—era—g—Ings—-so—-whip
A. 6. 17. 3.02. 33. 205.1. 171. 1.247
B. 10. 8. 5.05. 22. 118.1. 93. 1.458
C. 14. 12. 3.70. 32. 202. 136. 1.396
D. 8 11. 3.18. 26. 161. 134. 1.147
E. 12. 13. 3.48. 34. 224.1. 218. 1.137
F. 12. 11. 3.22. 28. 192.2. 172. 1.173
G. 11. 17. 4.84. 33 201.1. 163. 1.403
H. 14. 14. 3.47. 33. 233. 222. 1.220
I. 11 10. 4.33. 30. 176. 152. 1.285
J. 14 8. 5.43. 33. 179. 161. 1.503
K. 10 11. 4.32. 32. 193. 168. 1.268
M. 15. 8. 3.41. 32. 203. 225. 1.230
I think All these play very sim. Number of want to know who each of the play ask I tell you I think you all interested to know these names and bye the way Tehran is year young and number are com to other player to so after look at the stat tell me there not worth top prospect
So what u think hes worth imp hes got something wrong with him the braves know it why else would u trade a future ace
Why would Atlanta insist on Pollock and then settle on Baez? Pollock is the 4th highest in WAR! This makes no sense. The Dbacks have a lot of talent to deal outside of Pollock. They should move on if Atlanta insists on Pollock.
time for the Red Sox to swoop in and make this happen. They have the prospects to do it, and help the Braves as 2018 (and the new stadium) approaches.
Not sure i want to give up Jorge for Miller
Those of you who don’t understand Baez’s upside have to realize that
he hit 37 dingers in a season down in the minors.
Try to find another second base prospect that can do that.
He has crazy upside from a position that traditionally doesn’t produce enough offense.
Braves should target Almora or Happ instead as a center peace to a deal and get C.Villanueva tossed in with the deal.
Castro for Miller not baez and Soler. aybar isn’t that good and Anaheim killed in that trade for Simmons. Aybar will be gone after this season anyway. Whether it’s free agency or trade.
The best and simplest trade could be made with Boston Red Sox. Braves have said they want an impact bat and major league ready pitcher. If the Bosox have an interest I would suggest Shelby Miller and Christopher Ellis for Jackie Bradley and One from the following group of ready or nearly ready starting pitchers: Henry Owens, Eduardo Rodriguez or Brian Johnson. Both team would be swapping about $25Million in Payroll, about $55Million in excess value, and about eight to ten contract years of control. Boston receives a rotation upgrade while maintaining its outfield strength. The Braves pick up two helpful future additions and sacrifice from their young pitching. Not a blockbuster but both teams are helped.
I am not sure Sox need someone like Miller.He is not really as good as people think he is.And placing him in AL East?Not very smart
I cant find the like button so I will say it as a reply. and thank you I totally agree and LIKE what you had to say there.
This is a hard deal to understand. I’m guessing Baez, Garcia, and Peterson would plug in at 2b and 3b on any given day but it still doesn’t fix the braves outfield problem which is much more of an issue.
Makes me wonder if the cubs secretly hold Castro in higher regard than Baez right now, would much rather see the braves pursue a deal for soler and starlin.
Nothing against Baez, braves fans are just jaded against high power low contact guys after 2014.
Cubs dont necessarily hold Castro in a higher regard, they just realize that Baez will being more of a haul back