The 2016 season is still rather young, but decisions made late in Spring Training or early in the year can have lasting impact not only on a team’s results but also on the long-term earning power of players who find themselves in new roles due to injury or poor performance. This is perhaps most true when looking in the bullpen, where middle relievers are modestly compensated in arbitration (and, to a lesser extent, free agency) while their ninth-inning brethren receive significantly higher salaries due to the accumulation of saves. This past winter, we saw significant paydays for Trevor Rosenthal ($5.6MM), Hector Rondon ($4.2MM), Cody Allen ($4.15MM), Jeurys Familia ($4.1MM) and Shawn Tolleson ($3.275MM) 1in each reliever’s first trip through arbitration. Liken those figures to the arbitration salaries awarded to quality middle-relief/setup options like Justin Wilson ($1.525MM) and Bryan Morris ($1.35MM), and it’s clear that the ninth inning comes with clear financial benefit for relief arms. Even Allen’s setup man, Bryan Shaw, took home $2.75MM in his second trip through arbitration. Granted, many of the closers listed also possess gaudy strikeout rates, which do help to improve their earning capacity, but the saves are the most notable factor working in the favor of closers over setup men.
With all of that said, let’s take a look at a few early bullpen shifts that have bolstered (or, in some cases, hindered) the earning power for relievers around the game…
- Arodys Vizcaino, Braves: Jason Grilli opened the 2015 season as Atlanta’s closer and pitched well in that role until an Achilles injury ended his season. Vizcaino stepped into the ninth inning and performed quite well in his stead, and while Grilli received the Braves’ first save opp of 2016, it took one blown save for Vizcaino to move up the ladder. Vizcaino is earning just under $900K as a Super Two player this season, but if he can add a full season’s worth of saves to the nine that he tallied last year, he’ll have a case for a markedly improved salary in his second trip through arb this winter.
- Ken Giles, Astros: Conversely, the Astros’ decision to put Giles in the eighth inning after parting with a steep package to acquire him this offseason was a surprise to many. Houston’s decision has looked wise early on as Giles has struggled with home runs, but his troubles don’t figure to last long based on his track record and a strong 9-to-1 K/BB ratio through his first six appearances. Had Giles been placed into the ninth inning right away, he’d have hit arbitration following the 2017 season with nearly three full seasons as a closer under his belt and potentially had a case to top Rosenthal’s first-time record. Keeping him in the eighth inning could keep his future arbitration earnings more manageable and also allows manager A.J. Hinch to use him in higher-leverage situations as opposed to holding out for the ninth inning, as many managers tend to do with their best relievers.
- Jeremy Jeffress, Brewers: The 28-year-old Jeffress was originally slated to share the ninth inning with Will Smith, but when Smith suffered a torn LCL in Spring Training, Jeffress received sole ownership of the ninth inning and has run with it through the first two weeks of the season. A full year of saves won’t get him into Rosenthal territory, but Jeffress could compare nicely with Tolleson if he holds onto the ninth inning all season. Smith, of course, is still attempting to return, but it’s easy enough to imagine Jeffress simply holding onto the ninth, if he’s pitching well, even if Smith proved able to pitch in 2016. Jeffress arbitration eligible for the first time in the 2016-17 offseason.
- Jeanmar Gomez, Phillies: The 28-year-old received a save opp only after David Hernandez and Dalier Hinojosa blew their first opportunities, but he’s converted on four straight since getting his first chance. Gomez doesn’t have the traditional high strikeout rates or hard velocity that come with most closers, but he’s been an effective reliever and could cash in significantly this winter if the Phillies entrust him with ninth-inning duties all year. Gomez personifies the lack of earning power for low-leverage middle relievers; he’s earning $1.4MM this season after his second trip through arbitration despite a combined 3.19 ERA in 217 1/3 relief innings across the past three seasons. The Phillies ‘pen could be the biggest carousel of any listed here (or of any in MLB), so perhaps Gomez’s mention here merits the “barring a change” caveat more than any of the others. For now, the ninth inning appears to be his, though.
- Roberto Osuna/Drew Storen, Blue Jays: Toronto went the opposite route of the Astros, allowing their excellent young reliever to continue to pitch in the ninth inning despite having an experienced veteran alternative in Storen. Assuming he holds the job and isn’t sent down to the minors at any point, Osuna will hit arbitration following the 2017 season with three seasons’ worth of saves under his belt. That’s a recipe for a significant payday, but the Jays opted not to tinker with a role that worked quite well for Osuna in 2015. I listed Storen also due to the fact that while the impact on free agency is lesser, there’s no doubt that he’d have had a more compelling free agent case this coming winter were he coming off a full season as a closer. Instead, he’s slated to hit the open market one and a half seasons removed from his most recent ninth-inning work.
- Kevin Jepsen, Twins: Jepsen is in the ninth inning out of necessity for the Twins following another injury to Glen Perkins. There’s no timetable on Perkins’ return, and while Jepsen isn’t likely to stick in this role all season, another successful run as an interim closer — he filled this role quite well for the Twins last year when Perkins was also hurt — would be a nice added bonus to his free-agent stock this coming offseason.
Better yet, stop valuing saves as a stat in arbitration and as a measurement of value.
No, I think there would be a disagreement here, it should be counted, what should also be counted is Holds. Holds should be made an official stat, and count for a tad less than a save in arbitration, since Set up men are basically 8th inning closers, and it gives set up men an achievement, I think Wade Davis would thank me.
The amount of control a pitcher has over saves and holds is incredibly small.
They are worthless stats, much like pitcher wins and loses.
getting a save with a three run lead vs a one run lead. Coming in in the 7th in a higher leverage spot than getting a 3 out save in the 9th up 3 are incredibly different values to a team.
If you enter in the 7th up 3-2 with nobody out and the bases loaded and get a 6-4-3 double play but the rubber on third scores, you just got a blown save with absolutely no chance from your manager to have even earned the save in the first place.
It’s a worthless stat and it shouldn’t be determining pay
Saves and holds are arbitrary. They are determined by the manager. If we got rid of the save stat tomorrow it would be great; managers would then stop managing to a stat and instead bringing in their best pitchers into the highest-leveraged situations.
I agree with you to an extent but in their defense, what exacty do you deem a deciding factor? Era, whip and k/9inning? Inherited runners would make sense but again you could allow two runners to score off a bases loaded no out situation where you allow 2 sacrifice flys. Or a runner to score where your up by 5 when everyone concedes a run for a out. Every sport has trouble with this. In hockey they use gaa for goalies but dont seperate goals allowed on the power play. So a goalie could allow two goals when on a 5 on 3 disadvantage and it counts the same as a goalie who allows two short handed goals.
In football interceptions count the same wether its just a hail mary to end the half or a deflecfion off a wrs hands into a defenders.
Im a giants fan, casilla got a blown save the other day because a sure thing double play ball was botched and the runner on 3rd scored. They got one runner out and since you cant assume the double play an error wasnt charged. There are imperfections with almost every pitching category but until they find something better this makes the most sense
I’m so sick of hearing that pitcher wins and losses are worthless. That is only partially true. Pitcher wins and losses for relievers have much less value, but there is still some value for starters. Yes they don’t tell the whole story, but neither does ANY single statistic. Wins and losses can tell you whether a pitcher will fight and struggle to win that 2-1 game. I know I will get chastised for it, but I would much rather have a pitcher that wins a 5-4 game than one that loses a 1-0 game.
I don’t get why people have such a problem with wins. If you don’t like them as a stat, that’s fine, but everything doesn’t have to think that nor are they wrong for thinking that. I don’t like FIP as a stat. I think it is meaningless to look at what might have happened in a vacuum rather than what actually happened in real life, but I am never going to call that stat worthless if someone thinks it has value. That’s just too self-absorbed and rude in my opinion.
I think Losses for Relievers (setup men and closers in particular) are undervalued because they probably 9 times out of 10 have 1 of 2 roles – Protect the lead or keep the game tied.
And if they threw the same number of innings in your sample, and assuming all runs are earned, give me the pitcher who gave up 1 run and the loss over the pitcher who gave up 4 runs and the win
I agree with you on FIP. I think it’s worthless. It suppose to tell you how a pitcher does without defense, but that is not true because Innings Pitched is a stat in its formula. It basically credits pitchers for getting defensive outs (which is fine) but it also ignores all in the park hits allowed by a pitcher. Why give credit to a pitcher for getting a batter out but assume a pitcher isn’t responsible for any hit allowed? (Except HR)
@Ray Ray
Your logic is so flawed. Pitching Wins are an official MLB statistic, meaning, they impact a players’ earnings in arbitration, whereas FIP has no impact.
It’s not about liking or disliking stats, it’s that players are rewarded (or penalized) for the wrong results.
Results are Results. If you lose 10 games, but have a 2.04 era then that still Results in a good payday. If you win 10 games
And have 5.04 era I’m sure there won’t be a payday
“Results are Results. If you lose 10 games, but have a 2.04 era then that still Results in a good payday. If you win 10 games and have 5.04 era I’m sure there won’t be a payday”
Brandon Morrow 2011 stats:
ERA 4.72
W/L Record 11-11
K’s 203
Brandon Morrow’s 2012 salary was $4m, which marked his second time in arbitration process
That’s a reasonably significant payday for 2011 standards.
Bravo Jeffy. Well said!
I love WPA for relievers
Correct this.
And FIP is what happened.
It’s the measurement of their BB, K, and HR allowed. It’s showing us what a pitcher should have earned. The real differences from FIP to ERA is the frequency a pitcher strands runners (and some are better at that than others, high K guys for example)