Marlins top prospect Tyler Kolek underwent Tommy John surgery today, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo reports (via Twitter). Kolek was said in late March to have been sidelined with an elbow issue after a strong Spring Training. Miami made the big right-hander the second pick in the 2014 draft (behind Brady Aiken and directly ahead of Carlos Rodon and Kyle Schwarber), but his career hasn’t taken off as the Marlins had hoped.
Kolek wasn’t considered a reach by any means when the Marlins took him, as the high school righty drew rave reviews for his 100 mph fastball and landed among the top three on the pre-draft rankings of Baseball America, ESPN and MLB.com. Miami gave Kolek a hefty $6MM signing bonus — the third-largest ever for a high school pitcher.
Now 20 years of age, Kolek has battled his control in his pro career so far; he’s pitched for the Marlins Gulf Coast League and Class-A affiliates, working to a combined 4.55 ERA with a 99-to-74 K/BB ratio in 130 2/3 innings. Kolek rated firmly within the game’s Top 100 prospects prior to the 2015 season, but he lost that distinction in the eyes of BA, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus this year. ESPN’s Keith Law slipped him just inside the Top 100 prospects on his list, rating Kolek 97th.
Widely regarded as the organization’s top prospect, Kolek was three years younger than the average competition he faced at Class-A last season, so he’s certainly young enough to bounce back and restore his prospect status if he makes a full recovery. However, a season on the shelf will clearly slow his development, and his injury further depletes a Marlins farm system that both Law and BA rated 29th in all of Major League Baseball.
When will these teams learn that velocity is second to pitchability. Any blind man could see that a HS player throwing 100 was destined for TJ. I’d rather have the 90-92 with a couple of offspeed pitches who knows how to pitch. Velo does not equal success.
Nope, but to a certain extent, 100 mph cannot be taught!!
GM’s, rather foolishly, will always be tantalized by a 100 mph fastball, thinking their collective pitching coaches can teach the rest of what that guy needs…lol
Honestly, for velocity, aka throwing fast it’s more about your torsos angle rather than the form your arm makes, kids tear up there arm by how they are throwing the ball, not how hard they are throwing the ball. The main reason Chapman throws so hard is because of his torsos angle which (which is around 45 degrees), all be it, he is tall and takes a big step toward the plate. But a kid like Carter Capps, who’s injury wasn’t because of his jump step like many claim, it’s most likely the way he throws the ball which is a side arming, “whip motion” where he is snapping his wrist, which in turn messed up his elbow.
I also used the wrong “there, their” because it’s like 1:00 here
Noah Syndergaard threw in the 80s and low 90s in high school, now throws 100mph fastball and 95mph slider.
He was a late bloomer, but I found articles on him touching 97 in the 7th inning of a playoff game his senior year. There are guys who don’t find velocity until later, but most pitchers are at their max velocity once they reach the majors.
“Pitchability” sounds good, until you realize that 34 of the 37 pitchers that had at least 3 fWAR last year had an average fastball velocity of 91.5 or higher. Basically, 90% of the best pitchers are touching 95, so velocity is quite important.
This news definitely has to be tough for Kolek and the Marlins. I mean it truly has to be tough for the Marlins front office, especially with guys like Rodon, Schwarber, and Conforto, already having success at the ML level, and guys like Trea Turner, and some other players drafted after Kolek already knocking on the door…
But that is definitely the risk you take as a GM, when you go after the young, high school flamethrowers…Although I can easily understand how they were tempted with Kolek. When he is on, his stuff is simply just filthy!!
By no means does this mean the Marlins made a poor decision in taking Kolek, he is still very young!! The reward is still there waiting to be developed in Kolek, so if Kolek can come back healthy and turn it around, it will only just take a bit longer for the Marlins to truly reap the rewards.
All in all, it is just bad news for Kolek and the Marlins, but hopefully he bounces back and he can get his career on track. If Kolek does live up to his potential, then he very well could be the Marlins ace of the future, assuming Fernandez is probably long gone by then…
Agree. With everything you said (particularly re mechanics and stress on arm/elbow)
Some additional thoughts …HS kids inherently have more risk and potentially represent the opportunity to lock up talent. Instead of the colleges filtering and developing talent (and exposing weaknesses), the club takes on the risk and the upside
Re TJ for a 98-100mph pitcher. The ‘risks’ seem to be pretty low (14-24 months of delay yes) as we continually hear about how many pitchers have come back. View his progression more like a young Dominican where it will take 4-6 years to develop the talent
I guarantee you that all 27 remaining clubs would ‘gladly’ take kolek off your hands (they wouldn’t pay $6mm, but again, that’s the risk that the M’s took when they drafted him).
Btw.. This type of thing (i.e. Potential ‘out of the blue’ risk of 18-24 delay) is exactly why theo Epstein went the route of high draft picks = position players (i.e. Hitters). He knew he couldn’t take the risk, so drafted Bryant, Schwarber and happ (all 3 were superior hitting position players who had played 4 years of college). His first first rounder (Almora) was a HS kid who only hit AAA this year .. Their spent 70% of their 2nd to 10th round picks on pitchers … (Two years ago they took a HS 98-100 pitcher (Dylan cease) who had already blown his elbow in the 6th round. They paid overslot and built in his physical recovery into his development plan. This spring it looks like a good bet, but all part of a player selection and development strategy)
Good luck with kolek. Sounds like a good kid. Will just have a more traditional pathway (timeline) to the majors than some of the other names we all know