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MLBTR Poll: Whose Surprising Debut Is Likeliest To Last?

By Jeff Todd | April 12, 2016 at 10:55am CDT

It’s a quiet morning on the transactional front, so we’ll take a slightly tangential approach to start off the day. The beginning of the season always brings plenty of surprising, short-sample results, and this year is no different.

But this year’s crop of high-performing, debut position players is particularly interesting, as none were considered blue-chip prospects or came with much hype — at least, prior to strong results in camp this spring. While they’ll all unquestionably regress, they’ve also shown enough already to at least begin modifying their clubs’ thinking about how roster decisions will play out the rest of the way.

Each of these four players ranks within the top forty position players in baseball by measure of fWAR; none had suited up for big league action prior to 2016:

  • Jeremy Hazelbaker, OF, Cardinals: Sure, he had nice numbers last year at Triple-A. But Hazelbaker is closer to his 29th birthday than his 28th, and only made it onto the active roster due to injuries. Nevertheless, he’s off to a .526/.522/1.053 start and has also contributed two steals — that coming on the heels of a highly productive Spring Training. The St. Louis outfield mix remains fluid, but Hazelbaker could play himself into a significant role since he hits from the left side, unlike presumed regulars Matt Holliday, Randal Grichuk, and Stephen Piscotty — as well as last year’s surprising breakout veteran minor leaguer, Tommy Pham. And it doesn’t hurt that Hazelbaker is capable of playing center.
  • Joey Rickard, OF, Orioles: Baltimore added uncertain-but-intriguing outfielders via free agency and the Rule 5 draft over the winter, and the Rule 5 Rickard has seen the lion’s share of time while $7MM man Hyun Soo Kim largely rides the pine. Hardly easing into things the way most such players do, Rickard has already racked up a .409/.400/.636 slash in 25 plate appearances. He’s done that with more pop and less walks than he’s shown in the minors, and there’s obviously some correction to come, but at a minimum Rickard is showing the kind of usefulness that could make him an easy keeper for the O’s.
  • Trevor Story, SS, Rockies: Stepping in for Jose Reyes while his domestic violence investigation is sorted out, Story has inspired a steady barrage of puns by swatting seven home runs in his first six major league games. Of course, he’s also swinging and missing quite a bit and has only managed two other hits (both singles) and one walk in his 28 plate appearances thus far. Looking forward, the job is probably Story’s to lose at this point, but he’ll need to improve his plate discipline as his 53.8% HR/FB rate (!) comes back down to earth.
  • Tyler White, 1B, Astros: While Story’s tale is easier to tell, White’s hot start is arguably more impressive, as he’s not showing much vulnerability to the strikeout and is hitting everything in sight. White is slashing .545/.577/.1.091, which is obviously unsustainable, but his results generally reflect the intriguing blend of plate discipline, contact, and pop that he’s shown in the minors. He might eventually be pushed for playing time by the remaining options in the Houston system, but White has bought himself some rope to work with in his first seven games.

To make things interesting, chime in below with your prediction as to which of these players is most likely to reward those fans who are buying into their early-year excitement. Considering playing time opportunities, prior track record, performance to date, age, and other factors, which is the best bet to be a productive big leaguer for years to come?

(Poll link for mobile app users. Author’s notes: Do we really think anyone will keep up this rate of play? No! Is it too soon to tell who can nevertheless be productive in the long haul? Yes! That’s why we’re doing the poll now, when it’s interesting to see what people think and to discuss it, before a lengthier sample lets the stats largely tell the story by themselves. )

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Post a Comment

35 Comments

  1. chieftoto

    9 years ago

    Tyler White

    Reply
  2. Phillies2017

    9 years ago

    Personally, I’ve been the most impressed by Ronald Torreyes and Tony Wolters– both have smaller sample sizes, however, they have been playing well when granted an opportunity.

    Reply
    • Howard-NY13

      9 years ago

      I think Trevor story is either gonna be a bust or one of the next great players. I think Kim is going to be more impressive when he gets the playing time and experience.

      Reply
      • kingfelix34

        9 years ago

        Take into account that story is playing in Colorado, and while nobody has gotten off to start like he has before, a few years ago mike morse hit 6 homers in the first week and then hit 5 more the rest of a season, so I’m just thinking its a fluke.

        Reply
        • jleve618

          9 years ago

          If you look at the exit velocities, they are homeruns anywhere.

          Reply
        • stubbs21087

          9 years ago

          I’m sure Story will tail off a quite a bit but you can’t say his home runs are because he plays in Colorado. He was 7 HR’s and 4 came in Arizona.

          Reply
        • jakesaub

          9 years ago

          To be fair Arizona is also extremely homer-friendly.

          Reply
        • MB923

          9 years ago

          hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2016_112&t…

          6 of his 7 HRs were HRs that would have been a HR in every ballpark. The 1 that wouldn’t have been a HR in every ballpark would have been a HR in 25 ballparks

          Reply
        • sunshipballoons

          9 years ago

          That picture, which is what compares the distance to the walls in various parks, shows true distance, which doesn’t take into account altitude, wind, etc. You have to look at standard distance, which I can’t figure out how to do on that page.

          Reply
        • EndinStealth

          9 years ago

          Exactly. Distance is not the defining factor. Arizona plays small because of the dry air. Story will fall back. By the end of the season he’ll be platoon at best.

          Reply
        • MB923

          9 years ago

          Standard Distance is listed on the chart table underneath, along with a lot of other things.

          Reply
    • bross16

      9 years ago

      Torreyes has 5 ABs and Wolters has 4. Can’t really put them in with these guys

      Reply
      • Ken M.

        9 years ago

        And his ABs came against Mike Pelfrey.

        Reply
  3. jakub

    9 years ago

    Tyler white , Jeremy has bigger potential based on hunger ad motivation

    Reply
  4. Meow Meow

    9 years ago

    I tend to feel more favorably about hot streaks that are closest to being sustainable. Rickard’s numbers are way more earthly than the others, so I feel like he’s the most likely to keep something going.

    Reply
    • JcHc3in1

      9 years ago

      Exactly my thought as well

      Reply
  5. jb226

    9 years ago

    Hazelbaker, because he’s a Cardinal and that franchise always seems to be able to pull regulars out of its hat.

    Reply
    • frontdeskmike

      9 years ago

      I’d take the first round draft pick over the minor league free agent any day.

      Reply
  6. Travis’ Wood

    9 years ago

    Story won’t keep this up but he pretty clearly has the best chance to be a solid regular, he’s the easy choice

    Reply
  7. tmengd 2

    9 years ago

    Did everyone see Whites Minor league career numbers with over a .400 OBP. hitting .362 at AAA last year, with more walks the strikeouts everywhere he went. He won’t maintan .500 obviously but he could easily hit over .300 with a high OBP. a decent HR. He swings and misses so little so far and just started,

    he actually has room to improve once he gets settled which is pretty scary.

    Reply
  8. TheAdrianBeltre

    9 years ago

    The Big Chill, Nomar Mazara.

    Reply
    • Jeff Todd

      9 years ago

      Well, sure, but Mazara just got called up and is already a major commodity. This was intended to look at the half-buried, shiny-looking rocks that caught our eye.

      Reply
      • TheAdrianBeltre

        9 years ago

        All good sir! White does seem like a guy primed to rake and get on base at a high clip for a while. Thank you very much for writing baseball, by the way. I do enjoy it.

        Reply
  9. drbnic

    9 years ago

    Joey came into his own last season and seems to be able to keep it up. While I don’t think he will hit at a .300 level all season, I do think he will be an regular outfielder for the O’s for years to come.

    Reply
  10. unpaidobserver

    9 years ago

    How many SS out there hit 7 home runs in a month? In a year?

    Reply
    • TheMichigan

      9 years ago

      Tulo, Seager, Crawford, Peralta, Correa… A lot hit over 7

      Reply
    • justinkm19

      9 years ago

      Elvis hit 7. That just demolished your point

      Reply
  11. Kapler's Coconut Oil

    9 years ago

    Stripling

    Reply
  12. Bank On It

    9 years ago

    Where’s Aledmys Diaz?

    Reply
  13. beauvandertulip

    9 years ago

    Mazara won’t be like Joey Gallo, Mazara is much more contact oriented and has a better skill set (IMO) he also doesn’t have an alarming K% in any of his minor league years and is only 20. Not saying he will get 2 hits per game, but he is almost Major League ready, and getting him this time will show him what he needs to improve on and what he can do.

    Reply
  14. EndinStealth

    9 years ago

    White, Hazelbaker, Story and then Rickard. In that order.

    Reply
  15. FOmeOLS

    9 years ago

    Rickard is hitting fastballs, and learning to handle breaking balls as well. He makes great contact and has only two walks because everything is in the zone and getting hit.
    His eye has translated to the bigs and he’s going to continue to get good pitches because of the guys behind him, so yeah.
    Rickard is going to annoy Tampa fans for years.

    Reply
  16. justinkm19

    9 years ago

    Nomar Mazara

    Reply
  17. Weighed

    9 years ago

    Tyler White. When AJ Reed gets promoted, they will be hitting in the heart of the order for years to come.
    Altuve
    Correa
    White
    Reed
    Springer

    Reply
  18. ollierucker

    9 years ago

    Hazel baker

    Reply

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