It’s a quiet morning on the transactional front, so we’ll take a slightly tangential approach to start off the day. The beginning of the season always brings plenty of surprising, short-sample results, and this year is no different.
But this year’s crop of high-performing, debut position players is particularly interesting, as none were considered blue-chip prospects or came with much hype — at least, prior to strong results in camp this spring. While they’ll all unquestionably regress, they’ve also shown enough already to at least begin modifying their clubs’ thinking about how roster decisions will play out the rest of the way.
Each of these four players ranks within the top forty position players in baseball by measure of fWAR; none had suited up for big league action prior to 2016:
- Jeremy Hazelbaker, OF, Cardinals: Sure, he had nice numbers last year at Triple-A. But Hazelbaker is closer to his 29th birthday than his 28th, and only made it onto the active roster due to injuries. Nevertheless, he’s off to a .526/.522/1.053 start and has also contributed two steals — that coming on the heels of a highly productive Spring Training. The St. Louis outfield mix remains fluid, but Hazelbaker could play himself into a significant role since he hits from the left side, unlike presumed regulars Matt Holliday, Randal Grichuk, and Stephen Piscotty — as well as last year’s surprising breakout veteran minor leaguer, Tommy Pham. And it doesn’t hurt that Hazelbaker is capable of playing center.
- Joey Rickard, OF, Orioles: Baltimore added uncertain-but-intriguing outfielders via free agency and the Rule 5 draft over the winter, and the Rule 5 Rickard has seen the lion’s share of time while $7MM man Hyun Soo Kim largely rides the pine. Hardly easing into things the way most such players do, Rickard has already racked up a .409/.400/.636 slash in 25 plate appearances. He’s done that with more pop and less walks than he’s shown in the minors, and there’s obviously some correction to come, but at a minimum Rickard is showing the kind of usefulness that could make him an easy keeper for the O’s.
- Trevor Story, SS, Rockies: Stepping in for Jose Reyes while his domestic violence investigation is sorted out, Story has inspired a steady barrage of puns by swatting seven home runs in his first six major league games. Of course, he’s also swinging and missing quite a bit and has only managed two other hits (both singles) and one walk in his 28 plate appearances thus far. Looking forward, the job is probably Story’s to lose at this point, but he’ll need to improve his plate discipline as his 53.8% HR/FB rate (!) comes back down to earth.
- Tyler White, 1B, Astros: While Story’s tale is easier to tell, White’s hot start is arguably more impressive, as he’s not showing much vulnerability to the strikeout and is hitting everything in sight. White is slashing .545/.577/.1.091, which is obviously unsustainable, but his results generally reflect the intriguing blend of plate discipline, contact, and pop that he’s shown in the minors. He might eventually be pushed for playing time by the remaining options in the Houston system, but White has bought himself some rope to work with in his first seven games.
To make things interesting, chime in below with your prediction as to which of these players is most likely to reward those fans who are buying into their early-year excitement. Considering playing time opportunities, prior track record, performance to date, age, and other factors, which is the best bet to be a productive big leaguer for years to come?
(Poll link for mobile app users. Author’s notes: Do we really think anyone will keep up this rate of play? No! Is it too soon to tell who can nevertheless be productive in the long haul? Yes! That’s why we’re doing the poll now, when it’s interesting to see what people think and to discuss it, before a lengthier sample lets the stats largely tell the story by themselves. )
chieftoto
Tyler White
Phillies2017
Personally, I’ve been the most impressed by Ronald Torreyes and Tony Wolters– both have smaller sample sizes, however, they have been playing well when granted an opportunity.
Howard-NY13
I think Trevor story is either gonna be a bust or one of the next great players. I think Kim is going to be more impressive when he gets the playing time and experience.
kingfelix34
Take into account that story is playing in Colorado, and while nobody has gotten off to start like he has before, a few years ago mike morse hit 6 homers in the first week and then hit 5 more the rest of a season, so I’m just thinking its a fluke.
jleve618
If you look at the exit velocities, they are homeruns anywhere.
stubbs21087
I’m sure Story will tail off a quite a bit but you can’t say his home runs are because he plays in Colorado. He was 7 HR’s and 4 came in Arizona.
jakesaub
To be fair Arizona is also extremely homer-friendly.
MB923
hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2016_112&t…
6 of his 7 HRs were HRs that would have been a HR in every ballpark. The 1 that wouldn’t have been a HR in every ballpark would have been a HR in 25 ballparks
sunshipballoons
That picture, which is what compares the distance to the walls in various parks, shows true distance, which doesn’t take into account altitude, wind, etc. You have to look at standard distance, which I can’t figure out how to do on that page.
EndinStealth
Exactly. Distance is not the defining factor. Arizona plays small because of the dry air. Story will fall back. By the end of the season he’ll be platoon at best.
MB923
Standard Distance is listed on the chart table underneath, along with a lot of other things.
bross16
Torreyes has 5 ABs and Wolters has 4. Can’t really put them in with these guys
Ken M.
And his ABs came against Mike Pelfrey.
jakub
Tyler white , Jeremy has bigger potential based on hunger ad motivation
Meow Meow
I tend to feel more favorably about hot streaks that are closest to being sustainable. Rickard’s numbers are way more earthly than the others, so I feel like he’s the most likely to keep something going.
JcHc3in1
Exactly my thought as well
jb226
Hazelbaker, because he’s a Cardinal and that franchise always seems to be able to pull regulars out of its hat.
frontdeskmike
I’d take the first round draft pick over the minor league free agent any day.
Travis’ Wood
Story won’t keep this up but he pretty clearly has the best chance to be a solid regular, he’s the easy choice
tmengd 2
Did everyone see Whites Minor league career numbers with over a .400 OBP. hitting .362 at AAA last year, with more walks the strikeouts everywhere he went. He won’t maintan .500 obviously but he could easily hit over .300 with a high OBP. a decent HR. He swings and misses so little so far and just started,
he actually has room to improve once he gets settled which is pretty scary.
TheAdrianBeltre
The Big Chill, Nomar Mazara.
Jeff Todd
Well, sure, but Mazara just got called up and is already a major commodity. This was intended to look at the half-buried, shiny-looking rocks that caught our eye.
TheAdrianBeltre
All good sir! White does seem like a guy primed to rake and get on base at a high clip for a while. Thank you very much for writing baseball, by the way. I do enjoy it.
drbnic
Joey came into his own last season and seems to be able to keep it up. While I don’t think he will hit at a .300 level all season, I do think he will be an regular outfielder for the O’s for years to come.
unpaidobserver
How many SS out there hit 7 home runs in a month? In a year?
TheMichigan
Tulo, Seager, Crawford, Peralta, Correa… A lot hit over 7
justinkm19
Elvis hit 7. That just demolished your point
Kapler's Coconut Oil
Stripling
Bank On It
Where’s Aledmys Diaz?
beauvandertulip
Mazara won’t be like Joey Gallo, Mazara is much more contact oriented and has a better skill set (IMO) he also doesn’t have an alarming K% in any of his minor league years and is only 20. Not saying he will get 2 hits per game, but he is almost Major League ready, and getting him this time will show him what he needs to improve on and what he can do.
EndinStealth
White, Hazelbaker, Story and then Rickard. In that order.
FOmeOLS
Rickard is hitting fastballs, and learning to handle breaking balls as well. He makes great contact and has only two walks because everything is in the zone and getting hit.
His eye has translated to the bigs and he’s going to continue to get good pitches because of the guys behind him, so yeah.
Rickard is going to annoy Tampa fans for years.
justinkm19
Nomar Mazara
Weighed
Tyler White. When AJ Reed gets promoted, they will be hitting in the heart of the order for years to come.
Altuve
Correa
White
Reed
Springer
ollierucker
Hazel baker