Drew Pomeranz has seen his name creep up in trade rumors over the past week, with various reports connecting him to the Marlins and the Orioles. As I recently did with Julio Teheran (see here and here) — another controllable pitcher that is drawing trade interest but needn’t necessarily be aggressively shopped by his team — I explored the cases for an against a Pomeranz trade yesterday. There’s no right or wrong answer to the debate, of course, and we at MLBTR apparently aren’t able to come to a consensus on the matter. Here’s the second edition of our MLBTR Roundtable series, in which I’ve asked everyone from our staff to weigh in on whether the Padres should hang onto Pomeranz or look to sell high on him this summer…
Tim Dierkes: The Padres should trade Drew Pomeranz this summer. Despite a 3.00 ERA at present, there are concerns. First, he’s walked 11.3% of batters faced this year. No qualified pitcher reached that level in 2015. Pomeranz has still been able to succeed because of a .254 batting average on balls in play, meaning hits aren’t dropping in. Assuming Pomeranz is not the next Chris Young, he can’t maintain that BABIP. Pomeranz’s current skill set will lead to high traffic on the bases and early hooks. Pomeranz is also a 27-year-old who has never reached 150 pro innings in his career and only reached 120 once, in 2012. He’ll be in uncharted waters in late August, and has two career DL stints for shoulder injuries. By trading Pomeranz now, the Padres have a chance to cash in an unreliable asset, however tantalizing this year’s strikeout rate may be. Verdict: Shop him.
Steve Adams: Pomeranz has been terrific this season, but he’s already approaching his innings total from the 2015 season and has never delivered a full season with a starter’s workload. I can’t say with any confidence that I expect him to throw even 170 innings this season, so I can certainly see the argument to sell high at this juncture. However, big league teams likely have similar concerns about his ability to hold up over the life of a full season, and as such he’s probably not going to command an otherworldly return. With such a weak crop of starters on the open market this winter, the Padres would be better off hanging onto Pomeranz and hoping his previous shoulder and biceps issues don’t resurface. Marketing him coming off a full season of strong innings would yield a significantly better return than trading him after 80-100 innings, and if the offers still aren’t great, there’s always next summer, when he’ll have one and a half years of control. I typically advocate for teams in the Padres’ shoes to be willing to part with virtually any player on the roster, but Pomeranz’s value is still rising. Selling too soon in this case is a larger risk to me than the risk of an arm injury or a rapid decline in performance. Verdict: Retain him.
Jeff Todd: I voted in favor of the Braves trading Julio Teheran, but I’m going to edge in the other direction here. It goes without saying that there’s a point at which the Pads should be willing to cut a deal, but I’m generally predisposed to holding here. That opinion is due in no small part to the fact that I expect other organizations to be conservative in valuing Pomeranz — both as a rental and as a long-term asset. ERA estimators take a more conservative view of his good work to date than his bottom-line results would suggest. Indeed, Pomeranz is delivering a mediocre walk rate while benefiting from some good fortune in the BABIP department. And it’s no secret that he lacks a track record as a quality and durable starter. Given that uncertainty, I’d like to see San Diego chase the upside here. While many have noted that Pomeranz relies heavily on his curve, which is true, he’s also increasingly using a change-up that gives him a new weapon against righties. Thus far, he has limited opposite-handed hitters to a .193/.277/.338 slash, which is significantly better than he has fared historically. If he can prove that he’s a mid-3 ERA starter and stay healthy for a full year, he’ll be a sparkling trade piece over the winter — when the rest of the league will be picking over a barren market of starters. (Or, if contention feels within reach, the Pads can hold onto him as a cheap, quality rotation piece of their own.) There’s risk, to be sure, but I think the chance at big-time surplus value is worth it. This just isn’t the same thing as holding onto a hurler who has already full established himself. Verdict: Retain him.
Mark Polishuk: The Padres’ big moves of the 2014-15 offseason have proven to be such a misfire that part of me feels that the club should just totally start over and trade everyone of value (Pomeranz included) for young talent. Overall, however, I’m in the “keep Pomeranz” camp. It wasn’t too long ago that he was considered a top prospect, and it’s probably no surprise that he’s gotten better and better the further he’s gotten from Coors Field (a.k.a. the worst possible place for a young pitcher to break into the majors). Pomeranz has turned into an unexpected find for San Diego, and he comes at a bargain price for now and with substantial team control….unless another team goes overboard with an offer, the Padres should stand pat with him. Verdict: Retain him.
Charlie Wilmoth: I’d certainly consider trading Pomeranz if I were in A.J. Preller’s shoes, but would ultimately lean toward keeping him. Pomeranz isn’t eligible for free agency until after 2018, so there’s no rush to trade him. And while his performance thus far this season has been a bit better than his peripherals suggest, it hasn’t been wildly out of line either, and he should continue to perform well, health permitting. Next year’s crop of free agent starting pitchers is poor, so as long as Pomeranz stays healthy, the Padres should have further chances to reevaluate their situation and deal him later. Keeping him for now would also allow the Padres to prepare for the impending departures of Andrew Cashner (who can depart this winter) and Tyson Ross (who can leave after 2017). One could make some similar arguments about Julio Teheran, who I recently suggested the Braves should strongly consider trading, partially on the grounds that it’s risky for non-contending teams to hold on to established pitchers, who are at perpetual risk of injury. But Pomeranz is not as well established as a starter as Teheran, and therefore not as likely to net a big return. All things considered, then, the Padres should probably keep him for now. Verdict: Retain him.
Connor Byrne: The Padres are bottom dwellers now and they’re highly unlikely to contend before Pomeranz is scheduled for free agency at the end of the 2018 season, so it seems like a no-brainer to shop him this summer. Taking Pomeranz’s cheap 2016 price tag, remaining team control, performance and the paucity of front-end starters expected to go on the block over the next month into account, the Padres should be able to cash him in for a quality return. Plenty of playoff contenders need starters, so an inexpensive 27-year-old who’s top 25 in the majors in K/9, ERA, FIP, xFIP and infield fly rate (and gets an average amount of ground balls) should appeal to multiple clubs with rotation issues. There are questions with Pomeranz – durability, control problems and the fact that he’s succeeding with a knuckle curve as his primary pitch spring to mind – but it’s hard to believe those would scare off every starter-needy team from making a solid offer. If they do, then the Padres could retain Pomeranz and hope he continues increasing his value. There’s no harm in putting Pomeranz on the market prior to Aug. 1, though, and if rebuilding San Diego ultimately nets a package that helps augment its farm system, it would be a major win for the franchise. After acquiring Pomeranz for a pittance over the winter, the fact that the Padres are now in position to auction him off for a potentially appealing return is a boon for A.J. Preller – whose GM tenure is desperately in need of some positive results. Verdict: Shop him.
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With all of that said, let’s turn this one over to everyone else. Let the debate begin! (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)
Completely with Tim here. I’ve seen a couple of his starts and he’s having a classic lucky stretch that isn’t likely to last much longer. It’s not just the low BABiP or the high BB’s, although those will absolutely catch up to him. It’s the fact that he’s an off-speed pitcher that will get figured out the 2nd the 3rd time he goes through the league. If I’m Preller I get what I can for him.
So if you and Tim see this, you don’t think guys that get paid to evaluate baseball players do?
Which could lead us to Jeff’s point, which is where I’m at, I just don’t think teams will value him that highly. This isn’t the 90’s any more where a couple months of a shiny ERA makes you a good pitcher.
If it’s a solid return for a middle of the rotation starter, then pull the trigger. If not, might as well hold and see if he can increase his value.
I’d trade him. They got him for nothing because they A’s weren’t smart enough to use him and instead relegated him to a bullpen guy. Cash in the chip as
I’m with Jeff on this one. For all of the reasons that are listed for why the Padres need to move him, I find it hard to believe that contending teams honestly believe that he’s cemented himself as a front-line, controllable stater. They should entertain offers no doubt, but I doubt they get a major package back just yet, so I’d probably hold him and hope he stays healthy and productive for the second half. If that happens, he could be the type of chip in the offseason that could really help to rebuild that farm system- no reason to risk selling low at the deadline IMO
I completely agree with Steve, Jeff, Mark, and Charlie. Unless they give you the farm for this kid he is worth more to keep. His low cost means that even if the arm/shoulder/something else gives out they don’t lose much. His upside of establishing a more legit status as starter instead of starter that is made of glass means keeping him for now COULD mean exponentially more to his value and the team. His stats are weird but results are results. If the damn team would be consistent on offense he would have one hell of a record and even MORE interest from other teams. I’ve watched him all year….he is finally showing why he was a highly coveted young prospect. Keep him but listen to offers.
Guess it just truly depends on how soon SD expects to contend again.
The Padres really need to fill the farm with as many prospects as possible and should definitely cash in on Drew. To me it’s similar to the Teheran situation except for the fact that the Braves have a lot of great talent lined up to hit the majors within the next couple years whereas the Padres could keep him, he could continue his dominance, and they will still be mediocre.
Padres should absolutely trade him, if the deal is worthwhile. He had an amazing 1st 2 months of the season, but he’s been hittable during June. Strike while the irons hot on his value. Could just be a bad month could be hitters are figuring him out who knows. But chances are more likely his value drops rather then increases from here over the next couple seasons. Sell high.
He’s 27, 1st real season he has put it together, cost controlled for a good amount of time, healthy, and posting great numbers with his curve.
I think it just depends on the offers. if you get a couple good prosper a for him, sell. If not, take him to the offseason. If he has a good second half, he could be worth quite a bit. Padres can’t afford to mess this up though
prospects*
I think it makes sense to trade him. It doesn’t look like the Padres are likely to receive much of a return for Cashner and I’d be surprised if they traded Tyson Ross this season since his value has fallen somewhat with injuries. They should take advantage of what should be a strong sellers market for pitching and sell high on what is likely to be an unsustainable string of success from Pomeranz.
I think with his lack of track record the haul won’t be terrific and I think his success isn’t terribly sustainable. However, given his age and cheap salary, I can see the Padres gambling on keeping him. God knows they have almost no pitching talent in the minors or anywhere, frankly. I don’t think we see Tyson Ross back on a mound this season and Cashner is too injury-prone and not particularly good. Unless some team gets crazy with a real prospect or several good ones I can see San Diego hanging onto Pomeranz.
If they deal him, then the honest issue becomes who pitches for them? I mean, i know it doesn’t matter to a bad team if they have bad starters, but I rremember this Padres team a few years ago running Jeff Suppan and Kip Wells and Jason marquis and Ross Ohlendorf out there to start. It’s not fun to watch baseball like that, just like it hasn’t been fun this year to watch Luis Perdomo and Colin Rea start games.
I’m still, as a Padres fan, skeptical of Preller’s ability to evaluate talent. He acquired a pitcher this spring, Dan Straily, for free and immediately released him. Straily’s not great by any means, but he’s better than almost anyone else starting games for the Padres. I’d much rater see a rotation that included Joe Ross, Zac Eflin, Matt Wisler, Straily and Pomeranz than the one they’re running out there currently. It’s not a winning rotation but it’s a lot more interesting than seeing Rea and Christian Friedrich on the mound.
I completely agree with you. It just seems that Preller is always too willing to pull the trigger and dump guys too early.
Right now, San Diego has Wil Myers, Fernando Rodney, Tyson Ross and Drew Pomeranz as their only major league talents.
More like unwilling to pull the trigger and waits too long to dump guys (think Cashner, Ross)
It’s very hard to try and time a market exactly and it’s no different with a volatile player like Pomeranz. Belichick believes it’s better to cut a player a year early than a year late or in this case, it’s better to trade Pomeranz a few months too early than a few months too late. I think the Padres would be better off getting 80% of his potential max value now, than waiting and missing his peak and then having to settle for 40-50% or less (potential injury) of his max.
Looking at Preller’s track record with players such as J-Upton, Cashner and Ross and I’m guessing the Padres hold him and get a low level lottery ticket type prospect at next years deadline.
Trade him if you get any decent offers. Pitchers are just injuries waiting to happen. They need look no further than Tyson Ross for a prime example of how holding onto a pitcher for too long can blow up on you
Sadly that is a good point Chester.
This was going to be what I was going to mention, but I will take it a step further; for those of you that remember Tyson Ross also came to the Padres in a trade with Oakland and immediately put up better numbers in the NL, as pitcher’s often do. I think everyone knows how holding on to Ross has worked out thus far…additionally, the A’s did use Pom as a starter 2 years ago when they first acquired him…he did much the same as he has this year…in the first half of the season…second half he started to get lit up like a Christmas tree, hence the reason that he was used as a spot starter/long man out of the bullpen last season for Oakland…he may have finally turned a corner and will continue but if I’m the Padres I wouldn’t bank on it…especially after what happened with Ross…his value will likely never be higher than it is right now…Padres should take what they can get…
Another name that could net them a little something_ Christian Friedrich. I’d shop him around too.
I’d trade him if another team is buying that he’s for real.
This isn’t quite the same as Philip Humber’s rise from oblivion in 2011 as Pomeranz has a sketchy track record instead of no track record at all like Humber… but that’s what comes to my mind here. Sell high.
Well he just helped his stock more. 7 innings, 3 hit, 0ER, 1BB, 6SO, under 100 pitches. 2-3 at the plate, 1HR, 2RBI
I think he is someone to build around. They are already short with quality starting pitchers at the moment.
Id rather they keep him. Ultimately, he’s not going to be “the ace” anyway…he’s a very effective #3 starter, ideally. And its not like they’re going to get a near-blue chip prospect, for him. He doesnt have a body of work to warrant a team giving up one of their best prospects for him. So, Preller may as well keep him.
SD has pitching falling out of the trees in their minor league system…but most of its, in rookie/A/AA ball, and 3 or more yrs away, unless one of those kids REALLY break out, and you cant bank on that.
bottom line, he’s way more effective than Cashner, Ross (obviously), and even Sheilds when he was in SD…so, why would you trade Drew, when the pitching you have in the big league rotation, is as unstable as it gets? For all we know, Luis Perdomo may turn out to be better than Drew, but he’s still learning on the job (has a 97 mph sinker, came right up from A ball, Rule 5 guy). And Vargas (incredible mound presence and command for a young guy, got him from the Yankees) who has been a very pleasant surprise, albeit injured for the time being, is another kid, learning on the job, with an upside that rivals Pomeranz.
those two guys, are the personification of not just whats coming in the Padres future…but they are getting the kind of OJT, that demands a team like SD to have solid veterans that they can learn from and who will stabalize their rotation for the time being.