Taking Stock Of 2017 Club Options

We’re far enough into the 2016 season that it’s possible to begin to see where things might be headed in terms of 2017 club options. Team need is always a component of the decision, of course, and that can be tough to gauge at this stage. But if a player is valuable enough to warrant the exercise of the option, it’s generally possible to strike a trade.

Here’s a list of the players whose deals will force their teams to make a decision after the year:

(Note: we’re not considering mutual options or player options/opt-outs here, but will discuss players with vesting/club options. For a recent, closer look at whether their vesting provisions are likely to be triggered, click here.)

• Matt Albers, RP, White Sox — $3MM club option with a $250K buyout: Albers isn’t exciting, but he’s throwing well enough that the option could end up being exercised. Really, it’s too soon to tell in his case and will be highly dependent on how the Chicago pen is shaping up heading into the winter.
• Jay Bruce, OF, Reds — $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout: I’ve been casting aspersions at Bruce’s glove for some time now, but he’s hitting enough that it may not matter. It seems he’s headed towards having this payday picked up.
• Clay Buchholz, SP, Red Sox — $13.5MM club option with a $500K buyout: Though the price isn’t too high for a pitcher who has been a quality rotation piece, Buchholz’s durability and reliability questions, combined with his abysmal start, probably put it above his value. But there’s still time and opportunity for a turnaround with Buchholz now returning to the Boston rotation.
• Coco Crisp, OF, Athletics — $13MM vesting/club option with a $750K buyout: Crisp has been healthy and has shown flashes at times, but there’s little chance of Oakland putting this on its tab heading into his age-37 season (whether by allowing it to vest or by picking it up).
• Wade Davis, RP, Royals — $10MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout: Barring a Greg Holland-like catastrophic injury situation, this one’s an automatic yes.
• Alcides Escobar, SS, Royals  – $6.5MM club option with a $500K buyout: The 29-year-old is mired in his second consecutive season of terrible offensive production, and defensive metrics have soured on his fielding. There’s still time for a turnaround, and K.C. will think long and hard before cutting ties (especially without an obvious replacement lined up), but you have to wonder at this point if that’s possible with Escobar hitting an anemic .243/.267/.289. At such a reasonable price, though, it’s still fairly unlikely that he hits the open market.
• Yunel Escobar, INF, Angels — $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout: Escobar keeps hitting and has some defensive flexibility. He may not be exciting, but he’s worth this kind of payday.
• Jaime Garcia, SP, Cardinals — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout: He may be inconsistent, and he certainly comes with injury questions, but the peripherals still suggest that Garcia is a quality big league pitcher. Barring another run of significant arm issues, this probably gets picked up.
• Gio Gonzalez, SP, Nationals — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout: Speaking of inconsistent lefties … Gonzalez continues to underperform his peripherals, but he’s almost certain to stay on the Nats’ books.
• Jason Grilli, RP, Blue Jays — $3MM club option with a $250K buyout: Much like Albers, this is going to revolve around Toronto’s situation as well as the way Grilli throws the ball late in the year. He’s shown some new life since coming over, it’s worth noting.
• Jason Hammel, SP, Cubs — $10MM club option with a $2MM buyout: Hammel would need to fall apart pretty badly in the second half to disrupt his return.
• Ryan Hanigan, C, Red Sox — $3.75MM club option with an $800K buyout: He’s 35, he’s hurt, and he’s barely hitting. But there’s still time for Hanigan to revive his value, and Boston could see fit to keep him around as a veteran backup. Of course, there are plenty of scenarios where there’s no interest from the team’s perspective.
• Derek Holland, SP, Rangers — $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout: He still isn’t quite 30 years of age, but Holland is struggling to return to form after dealing with some pretty significant injuries. Over the last two years, he’s allowed over five earned per nine across 127 innings. The price tag is starting to look a little steep.
• Matt Holliday, OF, Cardinals — $17MM club/vesting option with $1MM buyout: Another interesting one! Holliday has yet to finish a season with a sub-.800 OPS, and he’s on pace to top that again. The power is back, too, though his top-notch OBP numbers are down a bit. That’s a big price for a guy entering his age-37 season, but it’s reasonable on a one-year deal for a player with that track record.
• Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies — $23MM club option with a $10MM buyout: Despite Howard’s many contributions to the Phils, this one is going to be declined.
• Chris Iannetta, C, Mariners — $4.25MM club/vesting option: Even if Mike Zunino proves ready for another shot at the majors, he’ll need a partner and the team will want a back-up plan. Iannetta is putting up a productive .247/.348/.412 batting line, and if he can stay in that vicinity this’ll look like a very appealing price tag that the club will be glad to put on its books (in all likelihood, by allowing it to vest).
• Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers — $5.25MM club option with a $25K buyout: Probably the surest “yes” on this list.
• Cameron Maybin, OF, Tigers — $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout: It would be rash to put too much stock into his excellent first 110 plate appearances with Detroit, but since the start of last year Maybin has shown life in his legs, a league-average bat, and a capable glove in center. That’s probably worth the $8MM gap between the yay and the nay, especially for a team without a real alternative.
• Matt Moore, SP, Rays — $7MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout: Things haven’t gone smoothly since Moore returned from Tommy John surgery, but his strikeout rate and velocity are rising and there’s still no reason not to pay him the $4.5MM over the buyout price.
• Pat Neshek, RP, Astros — $6.5MM club option with a $500K buyout: Neshek has been solid enough for Houston, but this feels a bit steep given that he’s nearing 36 years of age. His current 2.66 ERA has benefited from a .149 BABIP and 96.5% strand rate.
• Jon Niese, SP, Pirates — $10MM club option with a $500K buyout: Niese is still getting grounders and is running typical K:BB rates, but he has been torched by the long ball. This isn’t a huge price for a 30-year-old starter, though, so I’m still guessing it ends up being exercised.
• Yusmeiro Petit, RP, Nationals — $3MM club/vesting option with a $500K buyout: Petit has been quite solid for the Nats and seems a reasonable bet to make a match again next year, but he’s another reliever who could really go either way. He’s already logged 31 innings, which puts the 80-inning vesting mark in play; Washington might be just fine with letting that happen.
• Fernando Rodney, RP, Padres — floating $2MM+ club option with a $400K buyout: Rodney has been aces, but it’s worth remembering that his option could cost as much as $7MM depending upon what incentives he triggers this season (with $5MM more in incentives available for 2017). Still, if he can keep putting up the results of a quality late-inning reliever, he’ll probably be worth it.
• Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Tigers — $6MM club option with a $2MM buyout: K-Rod hasn’t quite had the results this year, and his velocity and swinging-strike rates are trending down, but ERA estimators still view him as a solidly above-average pen arm and it’s only a $4MM decision. It seems pretty likely he’ll be worth that, and that Detroit will have a need.
• Carlos Ruiz, C, Phillies — $4.5MM club option with a $500K buyout: Ruiz started fast but has fallen off since; he’s almost certain to join Howard in receiving a fond farewell from Philly.
• CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees — $25MM vesting option with a $5MM buyout: Here’s another clear example of an aging, former star who … wait, what’s that? Since the calendar flipped to May, Sabathia has thrown 44 innings over which he’s allowed just four earned runs. Odds are this won’t quite last, as Sabathia’s velocity is still down along with his swinging strike rate, and it’s pretty unlikely that New York will want to pay this rate for a guy who’ll be entering his age-36 season. But unless he comes down with a shoulder issue, there may not be any choice involved. If nothing else, the vesting outcome isn’t looking so bad for the Yanks at this point; we’ve seen quality veterans land one-year deals for just over the qualifying offer level before, and this may not end up looking too different.
• Carlos Santana, 1B, Indians — $12MM club option with a $1.2MM buyout: Santana remains a high-quality hitter and this looks like a perfectly reasonable price for him.
• Seth Smith, OF, Mariners — $7MM club option with a $250K buyout: Smith has rather quietly been rather productive in Seattle. He’s getting a bit long in the tooth, and isn’t an everyday player, but this is the market rate for top platoon outfielders and it’s only a one-year commitment.
• Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Marlins – $2MM club option: Ichiro has been asked to take a more-or-less everyday role in Miami at 42 years of age, and he has responded with a .410 on-base percentage. (That was another way of saying that the price is looking right.)
• Kurt Suzuki, C, Twins — $6MM vesting option: He’s been pretty marginal with the bat over the past two seasons, and that price tag is higher than most solid second catchers got on the market last winter. Looks like a pass if it doesn’t vest; that seems unlikely with only 149 plate appearances on his ledger thus far.
• Jordan Walden, RP, Cardinals — $5.25MM club option with a $250K buyout: This once looked like a pretty likely pick-up for a quality pen arm, but Walden has disappeared with injuries.