In addition to declaring that the rebuilding, last-place Braves need to start winning in 2017, general manager John Coppolella touched on the statuses of three of his team’s players in a Sunday interview with MLB Network Radio (Twitter links). Specifically, Coppolella mentioned outfielder Matt Kemp and a pair of right-handers, Matt Wisler and Aaron Blair.
Coppolella believes Kemp, a much-maligned defender, will be able to contribute more in the field if he gets in better shape.
“A big part of why he isn’t real good in left field is because he’s out of shape,” Coppolella said. “If he gets in shape, he’ll be much better.”
Unless Kemp has been out of shape since his major league career began with the Dodgers in 2006, there doesn’t seem to be much reason to expect a significant defensive turnaround. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and UZR/150 have regularly given Kemp negative grades in the field. So far, the 31-year-old has compiled minus-98 DRS, minus-116.6 UZR and minus-12.6 UZR/150 in the big leagues.
Given his power-hitting ways, Kemp has fewer limitations at the plate, but he’s still batting just .261/.292/.480 in 510 plate appearances this season. Of greater concern, perhaps, is that Kemp has the ninth-worst BB/K ratio (.21) in baseball among 158 qualified hitters. In combining the flaws in his game with his salary, it’s not surprising that Kemp passed through revocable trade waivers unclaimed. The Braves, who acquired Kemp from the Padres prior to the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, owe the ex-MVP candidate $18MM per year through 2019. Kemp entered Sunday with a .242/.320/.379 line and one homer through his first 66 at-bats as a Brave. Now, having only traded the toxic Hector Olivera for Kemp, Coppolella will hope his high-profile pickup improves his conditioning and becomes a legitimate producer in Atlanta.
As for Wisler and Blair, they’ll have to fight for rotation spots next season. During his interview Sunday, Coppolella named starting pitching and the catcher position as two areas the club will focus on upgrading in the offseason. In doing so, he described Wisler and Blair as “hard to count on” at this juncture.
Wisler, also a former member of the Padres organization, has not fared well since debuting with the Braves last season. In 231 career innings, Wisler has posted a 4.95 ERA/4.96 FIP/4.99 xFIP trio to go with a 36 percent ground-ball rate. The 23-year-old, once a well-regarded prospect, hasn’t pitched for the Braves since July 28. Wisler has since been at Triple-A Gwinnett, where he has fared better in 26 2/3 frames. Still, Wisler’s 3.71 ERA, 7.43 K/9 and 1.69 BB/9 in the minors haven’t earned him another big league shot yet and won’t guarantee him a place in the Braves’ starting five next season.
Like Wisler, Blair’s quality prospect status hasn’t yet transferred to the majors, and he’ll have to earn his place in the Braves’ 2017 rotation. After joining the Braves last offseason as part of their return from the Diamondbacks in the famous Shelby Miller trade, Blair has recorded a 7.99 ERA with a matching K/9 and BB/9 (5.15) in 50 2/3 big league innings. As a result of that disastrous output, the 24-year-old Blair has spent the past two months at Gwinnett. While his 4.59 ERA at the Triple-A level isn’t inspiring, Blair has put up much better strikeout and walk rates (9.18 and 3.78) than the ones he compiled in the majors before his late-June demotion.
Thanks in part to the early struggles of Wisler and Blair, Coppolella will have his work cut out for him during the winter as he tries to find complements to the Braves’ ace, Julio Teheran.
It was still an awful trade, but it’s starting to be the case that if you squint hard enough you can just sort of see what the Dbacks were thinking. Blair appears to be a nothingburger, and Inciarte is fine but nothing special (his 2015 appears to have been one of those fluky defensive seasons that produce way more “value” than is really there … see Heyward, Jason). Swanson hasn’t set any worlds on fire; looks like a league average type dude. Presumably the Dbacks knew all this and went for a huge bet that Miller would be their second ace. As I said, you gotta squint a lot.
Stupid comment.
Just stupid.
Well we are basing off of large sample sizes too.
Both Heyward and Inciarte are still valuable defenders.
Literally the Dumbest comment ever. I pray to God you do not call yourself a Braves Fan seamaholic. Let me explain to you how a real Braves fan sees this trade. Inciarte is having a down year at the plate but has been hot lately was hitting .240 at the All Star break, but is now hitting .270 so with his plus defense he’s an above average center fielder. Aaron Blair has struggled yes but he is young and has A lot of talent. Same with Wisler and he has looked like an ace at times but he has been inconsistent which is why he was sent down to Triple A to work out his issues and get back to the basics. I know in a world of everything is instant gratification, you have to remember these are kids that are learning on the job and they take time to develop their skills into MLB ready material. Also if you look at HOF Braves pitchers Smoltz, Maddox, and Glavine they all struggled at a young age at the Major League level when they were young. Now Kemp is not what he used to be but he will do 2 things for the Braves lineup, 1. He will get Freddie Freeman pitches to hit (5HRs since the trade) 2. He will hit HRs he hit his 1st in Braves uniform today. So give us time and we will contend.
Astute observation. If you look closely at Inciarte he is a copy of Adonis Garcia in hitting WAR. His defense is far overrated and wow that mouthing bodes badly for his future.
When I look at Inciarte’s injury that occurred very early this season almost immediately after spring training it was a lower body injury.. I’m not sure he recovered 100% right away (or at least returned to full strength). Those types of injuries (especially for a speedier player) can really mess up your hitting.
Since the all-star break Inciarte is 5th in hits, 10th in runs (despite playing on a terrible offensive braves team), He is 9th in average, .343, (for those with more than 120 plate appearances and has an .827 OPS. Yes those are not a super high sample size, but certainly good numbers for a good defensive centerfielder. I think Inciarte will do fine over time.
Seamaholic you are clueless. Keep squinting.
Let the “Teheren isn’t an ace” commented commence ;)
*comments
If your squinting to much you are not thinking straight with the Shelby trade…regardless if Blair doesn’t pan out still be another trade chip for other needs the braves address moving forward…..Swanson plus Inciarte still a plus plus for the braves in above replacement value in the next few years…
Wilson Ramos please
No.
Double no. Let someone else overpay.
I’d rather overpay and have a hitting catcher
Wieters after a down year with no qualifying offer attached is the smart move. Draft or trade for a long-term catching prospect. Lots of teams with crappy catchers. Better to spend money to fill holes that are more easily filled.
Blair has some work to do, Wisler’s numbers don’t justify how streaky he’s been however. He’s had some seriously lights-out month long stretches and I hope he’s given a chance next year.
As for Kemp, at least he’s a righty and at least he can hit things far.
I guess Garcia is gonna be the starting 3B next year?
Blair is terrible. They should move him in a trade.
I’d love for Atlanta to go after a 3B on the trade or FA market, but I doubt they do.
I like the Kemp deal. Atlanta has already gotten more value out of Kemp than Oliveria.
One of these things is very dumb, one makes sense, and the third is debatable.
I’ll play along.
Trade Blair = Dumb
3b FA or Trade = makes sense
Kemp Value = debatable
1 HR from Kemp is value over Oliveria. He wasn’t going to play for Atlanta again.
Blair is just terrible. Move him while he has some value.
Except you could have just cut olivera and used the money youre using on kemp to sign someone better than kemp…….
The value they get out of kemp is nowhere near what they could of gotten had they used the money elsewhere.
I can see us going after Prado for 3B and trading Garcia.
Please god, no Prado.
You need to get a clue. First Ender was hurt and has returned strong posting a 2.0 WAR and in the top ten OF defenders. Second Prado is still producing to a tone of 2.9 WAR which is a huge upgrade compared to Adonis -0.2 WAR. Prado has also been steady and if able to sign to a 2 year deal with a reasonable salary then it should be done.
I don’t necessarily see how he’s out of shape…he’s just fallen off and has struggled since the injuries but he doesn’t look or seem to be out of shape?… I don’t watch him play to often so maybe I’m wrong but the GMs comments seem more of him hoping for 2011-2012 Matt kemp to just appear with another change of scenery, then coming to terms with the type of player he is now. But again, I’m not sure..
Round is still a shape right?? Look at pictures of 5 or 6 years ago compared with recent pictures of Kemp and you will see the point. He may be in good enough shape to play major league baseball but Kemp is nowhere near as fit an athlete as he was a few years ago. Will losing 30 pounds (or more) help him to be a better defender in left field? I’m not sure, but it probably wouldn’t hurt.
His hips are likely a bigger problem that teams are willing to admit. The shoulder injury he had seemed to be a line in the sand that he hasn’t really bounced back from.
He was never a fantastic defender, so he didn’t have a lot of room for regression anyway. Always made up for his terrible defensive reads and poor routes, with good foot speed and a strong arm. Both of which have all but disappeared.
Lived in a fantasy world for a while too – was too concerned with being moved off CF, to bother with actually trying to improve (or not completely fall apart) as a serviceable defender. Did himself no favors when he allowed his agent to publicly attack the Dodgers organization for moving him to a corner OF spot – where he is STILL historically awful.
Some guys take regression in their stride and find ways to adapt as they age. Kemp buried his head in the sand, then decided he’d much rather swing for the fences, than do what is required to be a strong contributor. His bat has more holes than swiss cheese.
I am not convinced he’s got a major problem with his hips. The arthritic condition was disclosed when he was traded to San Diego and apparently it was not a major red flag then so it should not be now. He might well have a problem with this condition when he gets past 40 or 50, but at his age, unlikely. Far more apparent is how much he lost after the ankle injury. I can see why a team might take a chance on him getting back even part of what made him a 40-40 player (or nearly) a few years ago.
Good points. Man, that 39 HR 40 SB season feels like just yesterday. I really thought he was starting a peak that would stretch for a few years at least.
That ankle injury definitely wouldn’t have helped his range and mobility.
It nearly ended his career. This is what was said at the time, but the severity of that injury and the change in his game afterwards never seems to come into the conversation about him today. If a GM is going to trade for him then remark that he’s “out of shape” it may well mean he thinks the player needs to do more to recover from the setbacks he’s had medically.
Not like he is the first power hitter with poor defensive metrics, I will take his power in the lineup. No is he is not “in the future plans?” But he brings a nice presence to the lineup and to SunTrust. Will be interesting to see what we do with the rotation over the next 7 months.
Cleveland should take a flyer on Kemp after missing out on Reddick and Beltran
Kemp has had basically two careers, the two-time Gold Glove career before he crashed into an outfield wall in 2012 and wrecked his shoulder and fracturing his ankle in 2013, and the much slower player in the field and on the base paths after. Probably these events are connected somehow, but that’s just a wild guess on my part of course.
Reoccurring hamstring injuries from ’12 killed him too.
Tough to remember that he was ironman in terms of game played before 2012 too
Yes, that’s true but it seems the two in-game injuries took a huge toll on his swing, fielding and running, none of which should surprise anyone. It’s seems odd to me to paint him as if he’s always been a poor defender when before these injuries he was at least average or better than.
Kemp has to be thrilled that his GM is calling him “out of shape” in interviews. Maybe Kemp is out of shape, but I find it both unusual and borderline unprofessional for a general manager to state it publicly. If anyone should be saying it, I would think it would be the manager who sees Kemp up close every day… and even then, it shouldn’t be stated in an interview with reporters. Besides, he just cleared trade waivers, so if the Braves had any thoughts of trying to trade Kemp… well, who’s going to pick up a guy who is out of shape?
The Braves
Winner
Choices were slim. A guy out of shape versus an abusive punk.
The best choice would have just been releasing Olivera. Why take on Kemp’s salary on top of that?
I hope Coppolella cleared making this comment about Kemp with him first. A GM that makes a negative public statement about a professional athlete that represents his team is Busch league.
Not the type comment that builds a winning culture.
It was said that Kemp was on board with doing flexibility exercises and weight control and knew he was out of shape. Coppy didn’t state anything that wasn’t already discussed with him prior.
Sorry Sox. Class might be headed elsewhere?
Oops. Wrong forum.
Why did the writer state in part, “unless he’s been out of shape since he began his career with the Dodgers since 2006?” That would imply that Kemp was a poor defender early in his career and is just not the case. Injuries have hampered his ability to play period. Yes he can try harder and losing weight would help him prevent possible injuries while navigating in the field or base paths. He will never be that guy again but I like power in our inept lineup. If a trade opportunity were to present itself then Kemp clearing waivers is a start in that direction. If not, hopefully he continues to blast some bombs for the Bravos.
Guys we have Dustin Peterson, Rio Ruiz, Travis Demeritte, and Austin Riley as in-house options at 3rd base. Dustin Peterson and Rio Ruiz have been lights out since the all star break. I would rather let Garcia keep playing until on of these guys with 25+ power potential is ready. Garcia is playing great D and hitting .270. I’ll take that considering he didn’t make it to the majors until he was 29 and still he 10 HRs last year in 250 ABs most of which were opposite field. The thing is his Defense has improved and he is hitting well enough to keep the job until a rookie is ready to take it from him. Let Garcia stay and Play. Beats Chris Johnson any day
I like DP but he has not played 3b in the Braves system. The Braves moved him to the outfield. Rio might get an opportunity some time next year while AR is a few years away. I would not mind a fill in for a year or so I think Adonis Garcia is a fall back if the Braves can not find anyone else in the offseason.
Dustin Peterson played only outfield since coming to the Braves organization. DP did play it predominately in the Padres organization before being acquired by the Braves. His brother, DJ Peterson (who I like LESS than Dustin) played 3b and now plays 1b in the Mariners organization. I think sometimes some fans get the two confused (although that may not had happened in this case).
I see the braves doing a platoon with Garcia and Rio. Then having DP as a 4th outfielder and Kemp sub to get his feet wet and take over full time in 2018.
Yes I know DP is in the outfield now. He was moved because he is a below average defender at the hot corner. And No southi I did not confuse DP for his brother DJ. I just said he is an in house option
Braves can be the oldest rebuilding team in nthe history of rebuilds if they trade for McCann and Headley with the Yanks. Yanks would pay down $40-$50 million on the deal to get a couple pitching prospects or replacement prospects. I would try to get McCann, Headley, and $50Mil for Touki Toussaint or Max Fried and Travis Demeritte. The prospects are worth 30+ Million so the yanks are actually only paying down about 6.0 million per year. Exercize the McCann 2019 option for him to approve trade.
When you are 80, the early 30’s are not old. The rebuild can be pushed out two years.
No? Why would we do that. Headley and McCann offer the Braves absolutely nothing but eating up salary.
I would say no on Headley, but McCann could settle down the rotation until we have a C ready. I think taking Headley is more s favor to Yanks than anything.