The Dodgers’ oft-ridiculed offseason strategy of acquiring depth looks increasingly smart in retrospect, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. The Dodgers’ front office has taken flak for the better part of a year for acquiring large numbers of solid players rather than acquiring or retaining stars like Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke and Andrew Miller. But the team is currently just one game back in the NL West, and leads the NL Wild Card race, despite making a ridiculous 26 DL placements this year. The Dodgers have gotten solid contributions from somewhat lower-profile additions like Kenta Maeda, Chase Utley, Joe Blanton and Louis Coleman, not to mention players like Adam Liberatore, Grant Dayton, Andrew Toles and Josh Fields, who arrived in moves that were downright minor. Here’s more from the National League.
- The Phillies could promote outfield prospects Roman Quinn and Nick Williams, but are less likely to promote top prospect J.P. Crawford, CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury writes. Quinn is already on the team’s 40-man roster, while Williams must be added this offseason anyway in order to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. Quinn has hit well this season for Double-A Reading (.297/.370/.420) and Williams has held his own at Triple-A Lehigh Valley (.281/.311/.462), so they could at least be September callups, although, as Salisbury notes, it will be difficult for the Phillies to balance playing time for Quinn, Williams, Aaron Altherr, Odubel Herrera, and several other outfield options. Crawford is more highly rated than Williams or Quinn (MLB.com ranks him the third-best prospect in all of baseball), but it will be tricky for the Phillies to promote Crawford before the end of the season, since they have a variety of prospects to protect on their 40-man roster this offseason and Crawford doesn’t need to be added.
- The Brewers have announced that a pair of prospects have inched closer to the minor leagues, with lefty Wei-Chung Wang moving from Double-A Biloxi to Triple-A Colorado Springs and righty Devin Williams heading from Class A Wisconsin to Class A+ Brevard County. Wang was only 20 and had never played above the Gulf Coast League when the Brewers selected him in the Rule 5 Draft in 2013. He predictably struggled in big-league action the next year and looked like he might become a cautionary tale about how the Rule 5 Draft can derail a player’s development if he isn’t ready for the big leagues. Since then, though, he has since worked his way back through the Brewers’ system to reestablish himself as a prospect, posting a 3.52 ERA, 7.6 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 107 1/3 innings with Biloxi this season. The 21-year-old Williams, the Brewers’ first selection in the 2013 draft, posted a 3.61 ERA, 9.2 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in 72 1/3 innings for Wisconsin.
You know how to derail a pitcher’s development? Post your AAA team in Colorado.
Taylor Jungmann’s numbers at AA the past few weeks make this pretty relevant.
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Good point!
They didn’t.
The people who run the Nashville franchise f
Roman Quinn could be a switch-hitting Span if he could ever stay healthy. OPSing .790 with GG defense in CF with all the speed in the world. Would be intriguing to see an OF of Quinn, Odubel Herrera and Williams/Altherr for a couple of weeks.
Depth was a necessity because the LAD chose to not go after elite talent but rather talent that was discounted due to injury risk. Is the LAD goal to make the post season or win in the post season because elite talent is needed in October and aside from Jansen, Kershaw and on the cusp Seager, who’s elite on that roster? Kershaw lands in Texas when he opts out, the clock is ticking
First off, Kershaw will be a Dodger for life. He’s happy in LA and they will pay him whatever he asks. Secondly, you reference elite talent winning in the playoffs, yet who was elite for the Royals, Giants, Red Sox? They each had maybe the amount of “elite” players as the Dodgers currently do.
I’m not convinced they will pay what it will take to keep Kershaw in LA. This hasn’t been their pattern.
It was Friedman who said recently that they are pursing elite talent. So more fool us for taking him at his word?
They will pay him. The only reason they haven’t been shelling out dollars on multi year contracts is because thy’re positioning themselves to get under the luxury tax in 2019.
Every Dodger fan is freaking out that they aren’t buying every free agent available, but they already have $180,000 committed to salaries next season and that doesn’t include arbitration players, Maeda’s incentives, and re-signing or replacing Jansen, Turner and the many other FAs they have.
My prediction is the re-sign Kershaw, sign one of the big 2018 free agents (Harper or Machado would be my bet), and supplant those players with players who have not yet reached arbitration. Surely they will sign other FAs, but they should be able to do all this, stay under the cap and have a formidable team.
This “freaking out” you speak of, I hear not at all. The criticisms I hear (and I make) are when they don’t fill obvious needs on the roster and that ends up hurting the performance of the team during the regular and postseason. What never fails to surprise me is all the fan rah-rah for increasing the profits of Dodgers, Inc., as if it’s our responsibility as fans to root on ownership hanging onto as much of our money as possible. Let’s go dollars!
As for Kershaw, we will know when we know, but I am looking for clues for what they will do with him in past practice (which if you ask me, is not a bad place to look). No extensions for Turner or Jansen. Maybe they can find someone cheaper who is almost as good. Does that make you happy as a fan?
It doesn’t hold much weight when the only solutions to obvious needs involve players like Cole Hamels and Chris Sale.
It’s makes me happy as a fan to know my team is operating efficiently. For that reason I wouldn’t be too disappointed if they let both Jansen and Turner walk. I suspect they’ll make a push for them, but anything over 4 years seems too much and they’ll probably be offered that elsewhere.
yet many Dodger fans hate this FO even though they’re trying to get the Dodgers back to their roots (player development, pitching, and finding good role players)
I am a fan of what the FO has done in acquiring talent. It is absolutely astonishing what that depth has meant and how much it is has been used. But the signing or resigning or Miller or Greinke wouldn’t have done much at all in terms overall franchise development. It would have however given the 2016 Dodgers a better on the field team
The straw man argument, always a favorite. I haven’t heard anyone criticize this FO for what you say. What I have heard is them criticized for weak and ineffective moves at the trade deadline, missing out on quality free agents, and keeping deadwood on the roster far beyond their sell-by dates.
Come on, not acquiring Greinke or Miller and instead acquiring depth is *exactly* what the front office was criticized for. That’s the point of the post above. It *is* the post above.
Nope. These will never be mutually-exclusive propositions, no matter how often they are stated that way.
Just staying on topic. The topic mentioned in the article.
Free agency is a two way street. Players like Andrew Miller and Darren ODay didn’t want to come here
I forgot about that. Miller turned down more money to stay on the East Coast.
BlueSky I thought of you immediately when I read Rosenthal’s article as I think he is speaking directly to guys like you and the LA Times groupies that post here (and elsewhere) criticizing the work of this FO.
MaverickDodger is no “straw man”–he’s just touching the surface in referencing the sniping and cheap shots that have come from guys like you in the past year. On numerous occasions you have whined and complained about the FO not signing (guys like Price, Greinke.) or trading (Hamels, Price) for these high profile, big name “stars” that you, Plaschke and the Hollywood Crowd love so much in LA. I find your criticism of MaverickDodger to be wholly disingenuous.
Rosenthal’s article just touches the surface of just how effective this FO has been in the face of an unprecedented run of injuries. As you know, as we have spared on this topic previously, this FO inherited a 40-man roster that was arguably the worst in MLB, masked by a small handful of stars. They set out to do precisely what Rosenthal suggests and transform the organization, using its deep financial resources, to build the very best 40-man roster in the game. Of course, that also means that if you believe in depth, you need to be prepared to use it when injuries (or lack of performance) dictate it. Yes, these guys are aggressive about give Roberts the best 25 men ever day that they can to win–EVERY DAY. The last two games are perfect illustrations of that approach. Calling up Segedin on Sunday and using him against Price was not a “by chance, lucky” move–it was strategic, purposeful and obviously successful. Having Fields and Ravin available and successful last night (in a blow-out game) is typical of how the FO has operated all year. The Dodger bullpen,in order to have been this successful all year, has had to be much more than talented 1-7–it has had to be incredibly deep and there have had to be daily roster moves to make that all happen. Your “roster changing daily snipe” is just the the kind of nebulous and passive-aggressive criticism you offer up on an almost daily basis here questioning and second-guessing the work of the FO without being direct about it or offering a clear alternative. Your insidious undermining of their efforts, without ever acknowledging the obvious success these guys are creating (despite the run of serious injuries) is just galling to me.
That this team is 1 game out of first, 3 games up in the WC and Kershaw has not pitched in 6 weeks in nothing short of amazing. And that is just one of the record number of injuries they have had to endure. Honestly, I don’t see how they can get through August and September with these key injuries. Still, they are where they are and it is in no small measure to smart and very diligent work of this FO.
I close by saying perhaps we do agree on one thing: Dave Roberts has been outstanding. The man has been authentic, loyal and consistent with his players from day one and the results are impressive. He has created a enthusiasm for winning a team camaraderie that is very impressive. A major upgrade over the previous guy.
First of all, I was responding to Fred. He created a fictional Dodger fan with fictional complaints that were easy to refute. Second, if you want to talk about this, skip the personal attacks, or you get nothing in response, because you will deserve nothing in response.
Don’t be the Free Mumia guy at the anti-war rally. Depth is the subject of the graf above, and it’s pretty clear that has served the team well.
I’m afraid the front office did this year what the “LA Times types” have been demanding for the past few seasons: trading top prospects for available rentals. I hope they/we don’t rue the day that trade was made.
In any case, I really do dislike hearing how the Giants do it right and the Dodgers don’t. The Marlins announcers said something to this effect during last night’s broadcast. Well I’ve got news for everybody. The Dodgers have beaten the Giants the last three years in a row and are positioned to do it again if they can get any kind of contribution from Kershaw during this last month and a half.
Stop judging teams and entire organizations based on their last game of the season. The playoffs have always been a crapshoot and they are even more now. Ask the team of the 1990s, the Atlanta Braves.
In response to norcalblue:
I can’t speak for others, but my main criticism of the FO is that they don’t go after big names, even when doing so would benefit the team and not disrupt their home-grown talent goal. Greinke would have only cost money. Hamels would have cost De Leon (a top prospect, but just one) and Van Slyke and served as an insurance policy against Greinke walking. The team is operating as though it has a small market budget (in terms of new acquisitions, I understand there is dead money on the books). Kasten has made reference to “unsustainable” payrolls near $300MM, but that doesn’t add up when you consider the TWC deal pays the Dodgers an AAV of $334MM, before any of the 3 million fans come through the gates.
The frustration is that this team has the resources to get big name (and high performing) players, and is being made to settle for Kazmir, Maeda, and whichever AAA pitcher is freshest to fill the TBD slot in the rotation. Now, I’ll admit the successes of this FO, as well as my own shortcomings as armchair GM. Maeda was a great signing, costing relatively nothing. I thought Kazmir would be better than he is. The Kershaw injury is not the FO’s fault, obviously, but if the FO hadn’t been running the Dodgers like they were the Rays, acquiring reclamation projects and spare parts instead of flexing the team’s financial muscle, the team would not be in a position to have Kazmir and Maeda as its next best options.
We know the playoffs are a crapshoot, but then you could say the same of the entire season. All a GM can do in either case is improve the odds of success. Sure, a team with obvious flaws can make it all the way to a championship if everything bounces just right, but planning for success and planning for luck are two different things. Everybody knew what the Dodgers lacked last year at the deadline: a legitimate #3 starter and a quality setup man. So who was shocked when those deficiencies were exposed in the postseason? Nobody who expects to be taken seriously, I hope. So when you say not to judge a team by their last game of the season, I don’t know what you mean, or who is supposed to be taking this advice.
Agree completely. The playoffs are a crapshoot, but going in without addressing obvious flaws is irresponsible, especially when the pieces (Hamels) are out there at a reasonable price. You have to try to improve your team and reduce holes as much as possible. Obviously not everything will bounce your way, but when you have established holes in your team that are the exact reason why you lose a series, you can’t discount what the last game of the season means.
The Dodgers MUST get under the luxury tax threshold. They’ve built their farm system to do exactly that by 2019. Once Ethier, Crawford and every other bad contract is off the books they will have the flexibility to add big name players supplanted by proven players just reaching arbitration. Seager and Pederson are perfect examples of this. Though there may not be any Seagers in the system, there will no doubt be plenty of young, cheap talent to do this.
Why must they do this?
Perhaps must is a bit over the top, but why ownership be ok with spending an additional 50% on the overage year in and year out? If you really want the Dodgers to go out and buy every marquee player, they sure as hell won’t do it while paying an addition 50% on each contract.
I’ve already answered the silly “every marquee player” argument so I won’t go there again
As for the luxury tax, it’s a marginal tax. I’m sure they’d like to minimize their exposure to it, or not be paying it all. It does eat into profits. But as a fan, I am mystified by why you care about team profits. I mean, I’m sure ownership is delighted to know you care so much about their return on investment.
A team that’s not profitable likely won’t be able to put as good a team on the field as one that is. Surely we haven’t forgotten the McCourts already?
Ok, yes, seasons aren’t predetermined either. But they are a lot more than best of five series are. For the past few seasons the Dodgers have been one of the only teams in MLB to project to a mid-90s win total in preseason. And things have pretty much turned out that way because over 162 games… I won’t insult your intelligence by finishing this.
That said, I was very much disappointed with the Latos/Johnson acquisitions last year. But they looked like good gambles at the time. Who knew Latos as finished at 26.
I’ll tell you what I’m not disappointed about: trading Urias and/or Seager and/or other top prospects so that David Price could lose game 3 for us. Remember, nobody knew for certain what they had in Seager this time last year. A lot of people would have thought it a no-brainier to rent Price at that price.
Btw, I’m not ascribing any of this to you. You have made some interesting and thoughtful comments about the Dodgers approach, some of which I agree with.
Well I could be wrong but I think after three years of being over the Luxury Tax a franchise loses its 1st Round pick in the next draft year. Which, if memory is correct, is no marginal cost because nowadays early round draft picks are so much more valuable. This argument could be null and void come the offseason when the new CBA is dealt with. Just thoughts
The luxury tax goes up from 17.5% the first year to 30%, 40% and finally 50% of excess salaries over the cap. There is no loss of draft pick, but considering teams do assign financial values to draft picks, it could conceivably amount to a loss of draft pick financially if you go too far over the cap.
You’re linked to the wrong Josh Fields. In any event the one the Dodgers picked up has pitched a grand total of 3.0 innings for the team, and nothing in his career performance speaks to him being very good… so it might be a little early to pat management on the back for that one. Dayton might turn out to be good but again, a total of 4.0 innings doesn’t give us much to go on.
The 63 wins is really the best thing to go on, at this point. Pretty good use of depth, per the blurb/article above.
No shout outs for Dave Roberts? I think he’s done an outstanding job managing a roster that seems to change daily.
Roberts was also the choice of the front office.
Yes, and given the options they made for themselves, he was the best choice.
Sure, it’s a small sample, but the FO, between this year and last, clearly has an eye for finding maraginal talent at low cost
Let’s hear it for marginal talent at low cost.
I simply don’t get this 3rd overall prospect stuff for Crawford. He’s not a bad player but 3rd overall ? Thats insane. Guy is hitting what .258 ? Doesn’t have much pop in his bat and hasn’t hit over the .260’s since being in AAA .I wish the kid well but I just dont see it
So, is the Dodger front office actually legit? Maybe they know what they are talking about after all. Man, I hope so. Hope that we can keep the momentum going and get Kersh back in time for a Sept run. So far, August has given me hope for what July did not.
I cannot be more flabbergasted at Dodger front office apologists who say “they’ve done a great job with all the injuries” aren’t they dealing with injuries because of moves that THEY made? Anderson, McCarthy, Hill, Hatcher….
I think the FO just made a huge mistake in signing Rich Hill. Is he even going to pitch, and if and when he does something tells me he’s not going to come anywhere close to putting up the numbers he has. Don’t mind Reddick, but they should have left Hill on the DL in Oakland. Not to mention the prospects we gave up for him. I’m sure I’m in the minority here, but I Hated that move