The Diamondbacks obviously won’t be trading veteran righty Zack Greinke this year, as he wouldn’t be eligible for the postseason with a new team now that the calendar has flipped to September. But the club also isn’t interested in trying to move his massive contract this winter, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
Arizona reportedly listened to interest from the Dodgers after Greinke cleared waivers, but those talks didn’t progress. Still, the fact that the club’s ace was able to pass through unclaimed obviously suggests that other organizations don’t view his contract as an asset.
Greinke is owed $157.5MM in salary over the next five years, though some of it is deferred, with Arizona also obligated to make continued signing bonus payouts. That contract represents a major chunk of the D-Backs’ middle-of-the-road budget.
While any premium free agent signing represents a calculated gamble, this one looked questionable from the outset and hasn’t started off in the right direction. The accomplished hurler may have been somewhat unfortunate to post a 4.17 ERA in his 136 innings to date in 2016. (Of course, the opposite was true of his sparkling 1.66 earned run mark a season ago, which earned him the massive payday.) But ERA estimators are lower on him now (3.64 FIP, 3.85 xFIP, 3.99 SIERA) than they have been since at least 2007.
The biggest issue, perhaps, isn’t Greinke’s somewhat underwhelming but nevertheless-useful season. It’s the fact that he is already nearly 33 years old. Greinke is still a quality starter — he’d easily be the best on this winter’s market were he eligible — but it’s certainly fair to ask whether Arizona ought to cut its losses while he is still marketable. A performance turnaround is always possible, but so is the inverse, and Greinke’s age will remain as a deterrent.
Nevertheless, the earliest the D-Backs will consider moving Greinke, per the report, is next summer. Despite its miserable 2016 campaign, the club believes it is still primed to contend in the near-term and evidently isn’t interested in jeopardizing that possibility by trading its best pitcher. The return of A.J. Pollock lends some credence to the idea that Arizona could be a postseason factor in 2017, to be sure, but other developments have been less promising.
Ultimately, it’s impossible to evaluate any decision for or against a trade without knowing the possible return and other market developments. But an openness to listen, at least, would seem wise. After all, the remarkably weak upcoming free agent pitching class may create opportunity, and the D-Backs may be wise to explore options for avoiding some of the risk posed by the back half of the Greinke contract.
Better idea is to wait until October when Stewart and LaRussa are fired. Then the new GM can decide what to do with Greineke.
Agreed
It wouldn’t be a bad idea. Evaluate where you are this offseason, decide how long you think your core team can be competitive for (if healthy), and if you decide the team only has a year or two left in them then trade him. No sense paying Greinke $150 mil for 5 years if you think you’ll only be fighting for a wildcard spot in under half of them. If they truly think they’ve got a shot then keep him and go for it, but I can’t see them being competitive throughout his entire deal.
he has a pretty strong no trade clause plus an opt out, on top of a contract that is over market. Good luck trading him.
Nor is anyone interested in acquiring him this winter.
I’m confused how people think AJ Pollock returning is immediately going change them into playoff contenders. While its huge for them to get him back, that doesn’t fix the many pitching issues that they still currently have
I’m doing no such thing, if that’s what you’re suggesting. I said only that it makes contention much more plausible, while also noting that there are other areas where the team has slid that will need to be addressed.
Bottom line, though, you’re taking what has been a replacement-level position for Arizona this year and plugging in a guy who has put up a 7 WAR season. Maybe expecting a repeat of 2015 is too much, but still, that’s an enormous potential difference.
Not necessarily saying you’re suggesting it, and I agree that a 7 WAR player would be a major upgrade to any underperforming roster. However, if they want to contend for the playoffs with the likes of the Dodgers and Giants, then they’re gonna need their pitchers to get back to dominate form. A 7 WAR player can only help so much when the team is currently 21 games under .500. Him being out didn’t hinder them from at least being competitive this year
AJ Pollock should turn a bottom of the majors club into a world series champion – assumption attributed to the Diamondbacks front office in virtually every post with the Arizona category
Pollock doesn’t make them a championship contending team but he makes a huge difference. Not only is he a huge offensive upgrade in centerfield but he is an amazing defender. Part of the pitching problems this year have been compounded by the horrendous defense the dbacks have. The dbacks pitching was pretty miserable last season when they went 79-83 but the amazing defense and offense made up for a lot of the pitching whoes
so do you think he is the difference between a playoff team and the dumpster fire team they’ve been this year?
Him alone no, but Pollock, Peralta, Herman, Owings, And Greinke all being healthy for the entire year could make a pretty big difference. They desperately need help in the bullpen though if this team is going to improve to they want to be at.
Dbacks will trade him in a New York Minute, Biggest Blunder last offseason, They won’t gert has much as they think unless they eat $
The “Snakes” have another problem. Attendance less than 15K average makes it difficult to cover expenses. Promotion after promotion is not making it.
Great point about D-Backs’ attendance hurting team payroll.
Who in the club said this? Ownership? I doubt it, and if it was LaRussa or Stewart their opinion may not matter as their jobs are now in jeopardy. I don’t see how the teams poor performance will allow them to keep this type of talent on the payroll? The tax payers don’t want to support a new stadium and they sure as hell don’t show up to games, at some point soon, ownership will clean house.
Great points! All depends on who the source is and if that source will be on the team next year. I feel bad for the D-Backs, lots of great players there, but they are indeed a hot mess and trading away Greinke would be a great first step in order to secure some payroll.
I think Greinke clearing waivers doesn’t really tell us much of anything. Everyone on the planet knows they wouldn’t just let him go for nothing on revocable waivers, and so the only reason anyone would just go ahead and claim him is pretty much to block a trade.
I think it’s pretty obvious the Diamondbacks need to entertain the idea of trading him this offseason. Does anyone really think he will be worth almost $30 mil a year at the end of his contract? He isn’t even worth that now. It’ll basically be like the Yankees with the A-Rod contract.
The real question is what do you do overall if you’re the Diamondbacks? There’s definitely talent there offensively. The injury bug really hurt this teams every day lineup. But between Miller and Grienke not pitching well and the bullpen being a hot mess, you almost could argue rebuilding. They have some pieces that could net high quality prospects.
You just have to hope Stewart and LaRussa get fired before they have the chance to put their fingerprints on a rebuild.
All of this depends on who the source is and if that source will be on the team next year.
I feel bad for the D-Backs, lots of great players there, but they are indeed a hot mess and trading away Greinke would be a great first step in order to secure some payroll.
Then I would go the route of the Royals. Go heavy on the bullpen, build depth in the lineup, and hope your prospects turn out well.
Also, keeps your eyes on Robbie Ray. That guy is a strikeout champ and has good FIP. He could turn it around at any point and easily become a #2, maybe #1 SP.