The Braves will enter the 2016-17 offseason with a pair of veteran outfielders — Nick Markakis and Matt Kemp — under contract through 2018 and 2019, respectively, as well as a pair of fleet-footed defensive stars — Ender Inciarte and Mallex Smith — that the team has hoped can become long-term pieces. And, in looking at the potential logjam, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that it’s “likely” that veteran Jeff Francoeur will be back in the fold with the Braves to once again fill a bench role.
With a quartet of outfielders that could factor into the starting mix, there figures to be plenty of chatter about the Braves trading an outfielder this offseason, so let’s take a look at the possibility of each…
Nick Markakis: Owed $10.5MM in each of the next two seasons, Markakis looked to be a potentially regrettable investment for the Braves earlier this season. The veteran right fielder hit just three homers in his first season with Atlanta and had managed just one long ball in the first two and a half months of the current season. His bat exploded in mid-June, though, and suddenly the 32-year-old (33 this winter) is in vintage form. In his past 337 plate appearances, Markakis is batting an exceptional .297/.359/.473 with 11 homers and 20 doubles. Defensive metrics are once again casting a favorable light on his glove work as well (+10 DRS, +1.6 UZR), making the remaining $22MM on his contract look perfectly reasonable. If the Braves are going to move an outfielder this winter, I agree with O’Brien’s assessment in the previously linked column that Markakis is the likeliest of the bunch. He’s a shorter-term investment than Kemp with superior defense.
Matt Kemp: Kemp is technically owed $21.5MM in each of the next three seasons, but the Dodgers are picking up the tab on $3.5MM of that sum each season, so he could be had for $18MM annually from 2017-19. That’s still a huge price to pay for a player who grades out as one of baseball’s worst defensive players. Defensive Runs saved pegs Kemp at -18 this season, and Ultimate Zone Rating’s -11.4 isn’t much more favorable. With 31 homers on the season, Kemp has demonstrated that he still has plenty of power in his bat, and it’s worth noting that he’s restored his previously pitiful walk rate in recent months. Kemp has walked at an 8.2 percent clip with Atlanta and 7.8 percent clip dating back to June 14 — a vast improvement for a player that incredibly drew just two unintentional walks through his first 270 plate appearances this season. Some have suggested that Kemp’s presence has bolstered the production of Markakis and Freddie Freeman. However, as noted above, Markakis’ production is more a continuation of his June/July surge than something that could be directly attributable to Kemp’s presence in the lineup. Freeman, meanwhile, was already having a strong season and was entering a hot streak in the days leading up to Kemp’s acquisition. Kemp turns 32 next week, so he’s a year younger than Markakis with a superior bat. But, he’s considerably more expensive and comes with drastically inferior defense and on-base skills.
Ender Inciarte: Trading Inciarte seems decidedly unlikely, but if we’re exploring all options, the possibility may as well be raised. The Braves have shown a willingness to trade virtually anyone other than Freddie Freeman and Julio Teheran, though Inciarte’s incredible play since returning from the disabled list could conceivably have pushed him into that echelon. The 25-year-old is hitting .288/.346/.381 with three homers and 15 steals through 512 plate appearances, and those numbers jump to .316/.368/.425 since June 5 (as O’Brien points out). Paired with his elite defense in the outfield (+13 DRS, +15.9 UZR) and remaining four seasons of control, that offensive production makes Inciarte one of the most quietly valuable commodities in Major League Baseball. He’s a four to five win player over the course of a full season, so four years of his services would need to come with an enormous return. He’s slated to hit arbitration as a Super Two player this winter, but that doesn’t detract from his value. Indeed, O’Brien notes that Atlanta would need to be “bowled over” by a huge offer to part with Inciarte.
Mallex Smith: It’s doubtful that the Braves are itching to part with the 23-year-old Smith, either, but as I noted with regards to Inciarte, if the point of this write-up is to explore every option, dealing Smith as part of a package for some pitching help — GM John Coppolella has stated that he hopes to add two starters this winter — should be mentioned. Smith had a great minor league season in 2015 when he slashed .303/.371/.378 with 56 steals in 542 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A as a 22-year-old. He made his big league debut early this season when the Braves needed a replacement for the aforementioned Inciarte injury, and his electric speed and defensive contributions secured his roster spot even after Inciarte’s return. Smith didn’t look overly comfortable against MLB pitching, hitting just .237/.312/.379 before a fractured thumb cost him several months. He did slash .256/.350/.422 in his final 104 plate appearances, but that’s a fairly small sample from which to glean an accurate representation of his skills. There’s not a lot to go on at the MLB level just yet, but Smith possesses 80-grade speed in the eyes of some scouts and draws strong reviews for his defense in center and for his plate discipline. The Braves viewed him as a long-term option in center before acquiring Inciarte, and another club could feel similarly and consider him an appealing piece of a package to net the Braves some much-needed pitching.
The alternative scenario, of course, is that the Braves simply hold onto all four outfielders. After all, Smith has scarcely been tested in the Majors, and the presence of all four would create a good deal of depth in the event of injuries. Even if Smith is kept around as a fourth outfielder, he could see routine time as a late-game defensive replacement for Kemp and/or a pinch-running option when he isn’t in the starting lineup. (Though, certainly, there’s an argument to be made for him to play every day in Triple-A if he doesn’t crack next year’s starting outfield mix.)
With any number of avenues for the Braves to pursue this winter, let’s see what MLBTR readers find to be the best course of action (link to poll for MLBTR app users)…
Platoon Markakis and Kemp in Left and be done with it.
They could give the each outfielder a day off every other 3 days and play mallet everyday
Mallex
That wont happen cause they want both bats in the lineup.
Not gonna platoon them.. Both can hit against LHP and RHP.. I believe Markakis is the odd man out, barring a team like Toronto jumps in on a kemp trade and takes his full salary to replace Bautista..
Oh god no
Kemp’s value is pretty close to zero (see what he was traded for), no one is going to trade for him unless the braves eat the who.e contract, and even then not much is coming back in return.
Not they can’t. Look at their splits. Both are below average vs same handed pitching
What about BAL if Trumbo departs? Kemp’s defense might actually be an upgrade to Trumbo, or could take up DH spot. Kemp’s power could play nicely in that bandbox.
@RunDMC
Baltimore can’t afford Kemp. They need to save every single penny in their budget to (1)sign Manny for long term deal and (2)sign at least one decent pitcher for their rotation. Not to mention that Baltimore doesn’t have any blue chip prospect that Atlanta likes for them to pay up at least half of Kemp’s salary to accommodate the trade.
It’s either markakis average or smiths speed
Tebow’s ready. Didn’t they see his showcase? Ask Domingo Ayala.
Tebow is a Met I don’t understand
Trade Ender for Tebow and Jesus.
how clever.
My bad, I thought the Braves signed him.
Been saying to move Markakis for awhile now. It’s the obvious move.
Curious what they can get for him with how he’s been playing. Not expecting anything much, but previously I figured we would have to eat some salary just to move him. So pretty interested to see what they can do with him
I would be interested to see what they could pull in adding a prospect and eating salary but recently he fell through waivers so I don’t they will get a decent prospect if they don’t add money. If that’s the case, I would keep him. Braves have the money and don’t have anyone to spend it on this offseason. Unless you’re afraid his value will drop, keep him another year. (Legit fear there)
Kemp just screams DH…
Call me crazy but how bout sending Ender Markakis and Blair to the Royals for Cain
Cain has one year left before free agency and hasn’t even played as frequently (injuries) or as well as Inciarte this season.
Would not shock me to see a Kemp for McCann swap.
Crazy
I’m gonna call you crazy
I think It’s between trading either Kemp or Markakis, and I think. Kemp would be the more difficult of the two to trade. Although I’ve been surprised twice now that he’s been traded with that awful contract. I wouldn’t keep both if I didn’t have to because of the cost. If Kemp continues to hit it might make up somewhat for the defensive liabilities. I’d keep the younger, fast, good glove guys. Although my opinion could change once we see how the new ballpark plays.
The Braves have 2 redundant pieces in Mallex and Inciarte, and both players’ values are maximized when playing CF. So it seems logical to trade one fo them to acquire a long term solution at 3B, in the rotation, or at catcher.
Since Inciarte likely has the most trade value of the 2, I would trade him for the best MLB-ready piece at one of those 3 positions (SP, 3B, C). Someone to man 3B for the next 4-5 years would be my target…Baez or Berreto for example.
Inciarte is arguably an even better rightfielder than centerfielder (he also has the arm too). You can easily play Kemp in left, Smith in center, and Inciarte in right. While Inciarte has the highest value currently, there are several teams that will probably look for improvements in their corner outfield spots that Markakis could fill. Some of them have veteran (but older) starting pitchers who are fairly expensive. The Braves could very well look to swap Markakis for one of those type pitchers. Admittedly some of those options will totally depend on how those teams feel about the health of their organization and the value of those pitchers.
I definitely don’t see the Braves looking at adding someone like Baez (I’m assuming you mean Javier of the Cubs) or Barreto (the #44 prospect in the A’s organization). I don’t think that thirdbase is a huge priority for the Braves this offseason (although certainly Garcia isn’t the long term answer) and if they did look to upgrade it almost certainly wouldn’t come at the price of someone like Inciarte but more likely a short term free agent acquisition. Someone over in a fangraphs chat mentioned Inciarte for Barreto as well, but I definitely don’t see any type of match there. Barreto hasn’t showed himself to be a great fielder and although I assume he could play third (I know he has the arm for sure) I just don’t think he’d be the type of player the Braves would seek to put there. If the Braves were going to deal Inciarte for anyone on the Athletics then I’d imagine that they’d seek someone like Ryon Healy or even Sean Manea or even both in a big package deal. To be honest I definitely don’t see either one of those (much less both) being parted with by Oakland simply because those are the type of young controllable assets they want (even if the braves over paid with young talent). Right or wrong I just don’t see the Braves trading Inciarte unless it is for someone who fits into both their long term and short term plan at the major league level starting with day 1 in Suntrust stadium. Even then they’d have to be overwhelmed to deal Inciarte.
How do you figure Smith and Inciarte are stars??
Well it’s probably too early to tell much about Smith, but Inciarte is a defensive star, with all-star potential. An above league average bat, who can get on, steal you a base, and doesn’t strike out much, with that defense in CF is something a lot teams would like to have. He’s only 25 and has averaged over a 4 WAR for his 3 seasons. As a Giant’s fan, I’d take him over both Span or Pagan in a heartbeat. He’s the one guy I wouldn’t trade.
As much as I love Inciarte in a braves uniform for the sake of honesty I have to say that both fangraphs and baseball reference have Ender at a slightly BELOW average offensive player. Fangraphs has his wRC+ at 95 (or 95% of average production) and baseball reference has his OPS+ at 97 (or 97% of average) League average wRC+ for a centerfielder is 96 (so 1% difference). However with his above average glove Inciarte is a solid, young controllable piece who still has upside. That is all very valuable.
I should have qualified my statement to say an above average bat in CF, which I think is an important factor. Among center-fielders in all of baseball, he’s 14th in BA, 11th in OPS (7th in OBP) 2nd in BB/K ratio, and has struck out fewer times than any other qualified center-fielder. Admittedly he doesn’t have a lot of power, but how many Mike Trouts are there? A guy like Charlie Blackmon has power, but I don’t really want him playing CF on my team. So maybe I should have said slightly above average bat, but I still think he’s better than most guys in CF.
I say trade both Markakis and Smith, buy a FA on the market, and shore up that rotation using Markakis and Smith in separate deals.
So which of the available free agent outfielders do you think would fit the bill?
Saunders or Reddick, depending on whether you want to add thump or OBP.
Which is which in your mind?
Saunders has showed more power this season with a career high 23 dingers when he had never surpassed 19 before over the course of a full season. He has a career OBP of .310 and a career OPS of .713.
Reddick has only hit 9 dingers this season but has hit as many as 32 in a season before. He has a career OBP of .315 and a career OPS of .744.
BOTH have had multiple injuries during the course of their career.and serious other question marks about their games.
I’m not saying that neither one is worth signing a contract over, but just saying that both have their warts and question marks. Also that with this dismal free agency crop it is highly likely that someone over pays for them. At this point I do NOT want that to be the Braves.
I doubt that Smith is going to bring much on his own. All his value is in his potential, so potential is all you’re probably going to get back. No one is trading an established rotation piece, or even an MLB ready SP for Smith.
teams trade proven veterans for potential kids all the time. not saying I think smith should be traded, but what you said doesn’t make sense
It would make sense if you compared apples to apples. Teams that are out of the race trade veterans, when their contracts are about to expire, for kids with potential all the time. Which is why Smith was traded from SD. That is not what’s what happening in any potential off-season Mallex Smith trade. The Braves do not want a veteran pitcher in decline in the first place, and are certainly not going to trade Smith for one. And once again, no team is going to trade an established rotation piece, or an MLB-ready SP, which is what the Braves do want, for Mallex Smith.
It is highly likely (in my opinion at least) that the Braves will actually look for a veteran with a more expensive contract that a team who doesn’t see them self as great contenders (or has other better options) to flip to Atlanta for Markakis. Neither player would be top notch, but have value for the acquiring team. Unless the Braves are looking to make a really big splash, then it is more likely for them to seek an established innings eater who may not have much upside but produces as a league average pitcher. If some of the young prospect pitchers steps up faster than expected then the braves could still deal that veteran next season by the deadline. It seems they have done that a lot of late.
IF however the Braves do look to make a big splash, I don’t think it would be one of Sale or Quintana, types but more likely someone like Odorrizi, or Cobb of the Rays. (I have to admit that I have this recurring fear of the Braves dealing for both Odorrizi and Longoria and over paying to get it done.) In any event if it is a young controllable pitcher it will probably be a deal with a team that will take some of the braves younger prospects simply because they themselves don’t expect to compete for awhile.
Didn’t mean Smith by himself would bring back what we need, neither would Markakis. We stockpiled all this pitching, it will have to be added in trades to get what we need.
That’s what I’m saying.. why trade kemp he makes the whole team better
I feel like I’m walking into a black lives matter rally wearing a klan outfit but the answer is to trade freeman. When factoring in Olivera/Dodgers money kemp is cheaper than freeman. Kemp cannot be allowed to stay in LF in his current physical condition. I think freeman could help bring a player of sales caliber. We need that consistent 1-2 punch to advance deep in the playoffs. Peterson, Rojas Jr., and lien could be MLB ready next season. Markakis is definitely earning his pay check until then.
While I definitely agree that Dustin Peterson has a good chance to develop into a solid major league outfielder I’m not so sure about the other two you mentioned. Mel Rojas, Jr. is already 26 years old in AAA and has a lot of flaws in his game (there are reasons the Pirates didn’t keep him). Connor Lien is great defensively and at 22 still has time to develop more, but he has got to work on his contact rates. Neither Lien or Rojas are guaranteed to be in the Braves organization next season as I think both are available to be either minor league free agents or open to the Rule 5 draft (or was it the rule 55 free agents as both are possible?) if they are not added to the 40 man roster. I apologize if I’m wrong on the last point but I seem to recall reading somewhere that both could be gone from the organization before the start of next season.
You are correct both need 40 man spots. Rojas is looking like A. Garcia- a consistently decent MiLB player who is finally clicking. Lien’s defense is too valuable not to protect, but he can’t hold a 40 man spot for two years while his bat catches up. I hope both get 40 man spots and a chance to come to ST to compete for that 4th OF spot.
If you put the season Freeman’s had on a playoff-bound Braves team, Freddie gets mentioned as a potential top-10 or top-5 MVP candidate. You don’t trade those players. For all the talk of Swanson being the face of the rebuild and the hometown #1 overall pick, Freeman is still the face of the franchise. With Atlanta’s window with these new kids opening in a few years it makes less sense for them to trade their franchise player in Freeman than it does for the White Sox to trade Sale. Sure, you could trade him and bring back more blue chip talent, but in that theory the Cubs could trade all their stars and overload themselves with top talent too.
In that theory the Cubs could trade all their stars and overload… Lol sorry Einstein no theory just a suggestion that the outfield situation is made a lot less convoluted by trading freeman and moving kemp to 1st. Yes he is the face of the franchise. The org would miss the hugs, smiles, and personality. But the FO doesn’t see the window opening in a “few years”- they want to slam it open it next year. With freeman and kids we could make the playoffs. With another ace-esque pitcher we could win the playoffs. Kemp at 1st makes sense. Freeman’s value has peaked and he should be a perennial MVP- that warrants a perennial CY young return.
Freeman is a major answer on a team that will look start adding to the current core. Trading Freeman for a guy like Sale would be at best a lateral move and has a chance to be a huge negative since there isn’t an obvious replacement for 1st in the system. It’s safe to say there’s ZERO chance Freeman gets traded, especially after the season he’s put up this year.
Obvious replacement on the books for 20 million=kemp. Freeman was shopped last off season, he will be shopped this offseason 100%. Question is would freeman and a sims be enough for a sale. Would the braves give up a freeman and inciarte for a sale and power Corner OF. Matching up for the right player/players is almost impossible when you start talking about players of this caliber. These r the trades that get gems fired so I’m not hopeful, but trading freeman and a pitching prospect is the answer if it is possible to get a sale or judge and sanchez type package.
I particularly like how the poll questions were “try” to trade Markakis or Kemp, as opposed to “trade” Inciarte or Smith.
Trade kemp and Nick to the white sox and some other prospects for Chris sale and make sure sale wants to sign long term
Forget that
.Mallex doesn’t need to be in AAA..he is gonna be a stud for a long time, if anything keep him in AA , and like Dansby and Ozzie bring him straight back to the majors, it’s quite obvious none of the coaches in AAA are competent. Re: Lucas Sims, Ellis, Blair, etc. Where pitching is concerned. Austin Riley is the future ..Rio will never pan out in the mlb. AAA is filled with old men, career minor leaguers, and stop gap mediocrity, the coaching is horrendous, that’s why everyone stays at Mississippi, because that’s where they can develop the fastest and in the most correct way. Trade Kakes ,wait for Riley and Peterson to develop, then, there’s another wave coming..Pache, Acuna, Maitan, Muller, Yepez, Ian, Demeritte, Dylan Moore, A.J., Weigel, Ellis, Newcomb, Sims (if he ever gets it straightened out mentally and mechanically), Allard, Wentz, Touki, Fried, Soroka and so many more. But unless you’re getting Chris Sale or another #1 starter, Mallex leaving would be a calamity, as well as any of the above mentioned studs in waiting..the future’s so bright I gotta wear shades
Trade Matt Kemp – If Kemp could learn 1B for a new team (Freeman blocking Kemp in Atlanta) or be traded to a team with an open DH spot, then trading Kemp could work out.
Who the braves really gonna get that hits 30 homers and 100 rbis be serious
True, true. At roughly $16MM/yr, hard to trade a guy of Kemp’s potential. I see him more useful on an AL team, but as the saying goes, when life gives you lemons, make lemonade. 🙂
where is the, “find ones who are actually good at baseball”, option?
I hear Inciarte is “quietly valuable” according to various vague defensive metrics but is not exciting to watch for me. Seems like a solid player for a last place team. Trade him while everyone thinks he is super valuable. Maybe if he puts on some muscle he can have some power later in his career, but Smith should get time in center. Also they are stuck with the two vets that are not who they used to be. The description in this post feels like a silver lining/feel good exagerration for a crap team.
Yeah, ask Arizona how abandoning defense works out
Trade Markakis and Whalen to O’s for Bundy and Trumbo(sign him for 4years at 60 mil.) Trade Inciarte, Ruiz and Blair to Cubs for Contreras(C) and Baez.
My mistake TRADE Markakis and Whalen for Bundy and Cisco.
You see what inciarte can do during a game I’d never trade him if it was me
Parting with Kemp after the way he has impacted this lineup since the All-Star break would be absolutley stupid. Getting rid of Inciarte since he is the best top of the lineup hitter we have had in years and his defense is excellent would also be stupid. Inciarte has All Star and Gold glove potential. Getting rid of a young talent like Mallex Smith would also be stupid. He has top notch speed. His bad isn’t horrible and his defense is also excellent. Now. Getting rid of Markakis depending on the package the Braves could receive could be benificial. It all just depends on what the braves could get for him. I’m not one to think that Markakis has to stay in Atlanta. He has hit 12 HR this season and has got some power back after his neck surgery. He is a very solid player but this team needs bullpen help to an extreme. And a front line starter as well. Would Markakis net the braves that? Doubtful but he is the best OF option to get rid of out of these 4 guys. If Inciarte would have hit like he has hit the second half of the season all year long than he would be in the conversation of MVP possibly. That’s crazy to think considering how easily the Braves got him in the Shelby miller trade and the way he started the season but he has been absolutley amazing for the braves since the all star break. Kemp may be getting older but his power bat is something the Braves CANNOT get rid of. He has helped get better pitches for Freeman in front of him and since he’s been on the team the Braves have put up some great numbers. Mallex is to young to really be able to know his absolute worth and with to small of a sample size the braves need to see what he can do next year to gauge his worth before they trade him. Markakis is the only one who the Braves could afford to give up and feel good about it in the future even if he did happen to excel at the team he was traded to. The option of keeping all 4 guys isn’t a bad idea either. But this Braves front office has to find a way to trade for some bullpen help or a front line starter. Maybe they don’t make any trades. Maybe they just use the available money to sign some pieces or maybe the young pitching the braves have will be ready a month into the season next year. It’s all kind of hard to gauge at this moment considering how well the team is currently playing. DO NOT get rid of Kemp. You don’t hit 100+ RBI’s every year and 30 HR’s and call it a fluke. The guy may not be great defensively but he has hurt the braves at all being in right field. His offensive value FAR outweighs his defensive value and would be a major mistake to trade him. He is a top flight hitter in this league regardless what some stupid sabermetrics have to say about it. He has risen his batting average 10 points since he has been in Atlanta and imagine if Sun Trust park turns out to be a very good hitters park. He may hit 40 next year if that’s the case. Look at how this team has played since he came on board. Havent seen this good of a Braves hitting teams in years.