The Blue Jays are about to embark upon an interesting offseason in which three key offensive producers — first baseman/DH Edwin Encarnacion, right fielder Jose Bautista, and left fielder Michael Saunders — will qualify for free agency. Their situations have been the subject of much analysis and debate, but we’ll soon begin to receive some clarity with qualifying offers due to be made (and either accepted or denied) shortly after the end of the World Series.
Here’s the latest on those positions out of Toronto:
- Despite indications that the Jays are still weighing the issuance of a QO to Saunders, a rival executive tells Jon Heyman of Fan Rag that there’s “no chance” that happens. We’ll learn soon enough what direction that situation is headed in, but Saunders’s marginal second half makes the one-year, $17.2MM offer seem like a rather lofty outlay.
- Toronto may now be more inclined to push to retain Encarnacion than Bautista, Heyman adds, noting that the preference for the younger slugger perhaps represents a change of position from the organization. Encarnacion certainly outproduced Bautista in 2016, though that also figures to elevate his market standing. Regardless, odds are that the Blue Jays will need to compete with the rest of the league to land either player, as both are expected to decline the QO.
- Ultimately, the Jays have several bat-first roster spots in flux — both corner outfield positions, first base, and the DH slot. The overriding mandate, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca writes, is “to get more athletic, flexible and balanced in the batting order.” There are certainly some pieces on hand to assist in that regard, including the left-handed-hitting Ezequiel Carrera and righty swingers Melvin Upton Jr. and Chris Colabello. Young switch-hitter Dalton Pompey could also factor in, though he has yet to put it all together in the upper minors. Clearly, though, there’s room for additions (or, perhaps, re-acquisitions).
- Toronto will be able to look to a reasonably robust market in filling these voids. According to Davidi, the club has interest in the switch-hitting Dexter Fowler, who could add a significant on-base threat to the top of the order while playing left field (and, perhaps, also stepping in from time to time for light-hitting center fielder Kevin Pillar). There’s certainly reason to believe the Jays would be well-served to add an everyday player to their lineup given the number of areas that will need to be addressed. Ian Desmond is another, quite different player who the team is expected to contact, per Davidi. Though he’s a greater home run threat than is Fowler, he’s also inconsistent in the on-base department. As Davidi notes, though, the converted shortstop could also provide some insurance against an injury to infielder Troy Tulowitzki.
- Alternatively, or perhaps additionally, the Jays could look at some players who are somewhat more limited and may require platoon partners. The club is said to have some interest in Josh Reddick, who hits from the left side and could be paired with Upton — though he figures to be fairly expensive for a player who ought to be limited mostly to facing right-handed pitching. Brandon Moss and even former Blue Jay Colby Rasmus could represent more budget-friendly, southpaw-swinging options, Davidi suggests. And there are a variety of other, presumably reasonably-priced players with solid offensive chops (but also plenty of limitations) who’ll be available.
- That’s all before getting to the trade market, of course, which could offer some interesting possibilities. Davidi indicates that the Jays are likely to “work on parallel fronts” to open possibilities with a variety of combinations of players. GM Ross Atkins recently suggested that the club will remain flexible as the offseason progresses. “I think it’s a matter of being transparent as you are considering your alternatives,” he said. “So it would be something as simple as letting others know that you’re weighing alternatives as you make these certain offers.”
- It’s worth bearing in mind the role that financial considerations will play in dictating the course for the Jays. The team has never reached the $140MM line in Opening Day salary, and is already approaching $120MM in 2017 commitments after accounting for a few arbitration cases and the option over reliever Jason Grilli. Those obligations fall off quite a bit in the years that follow, so backloading salary could be a possibility, but one truly significant expenditure (say, Encarnacion) or a few quality veteran additions would leave Toronto without much wiggle room to address other needs — barring, perhaps, a payroll increase.
I don’t get all the negativity about Pillar’s offense. He hit .266 last season with a bad thumb. The season before, he hit .278 & had 12 homers. Pillar saves a ton of runs defensively. He’s one of the best fielding center fielders in the game. I’ll take a .266 or .278 average for him to keep his glove in the lineup.
Him and Martin was the reason our starters were the best in the AL this year
Yup
Pillar’s obp is pretty lousy. Don’t get me wrong, I am a Pillar fan, but he is almost a glove only contributor. His average isn’t unbearable, but he never contributes to a rally unless he gets a hit. There are so many other ways to help in situations and he is all or nothing. Never a productive out. That’s why the experiment of him in the leadoff position was so brief. He has a spot on my Jays roster for his leather alone, but someone is accurate when describing him as light hitting.
Offense isn’t just batting average. He didn’t get on base or hit for power last year. Though he was better in the two prior years, he was still not quite an average producer — hence, “sub-par.”
His offense can be “sub-par” on a team with THAT many bangers. As long as his defense remains stellar, he brings plenty of value to the position on THIS particular club
Right. I’m not suggesting they replace him. He’s a very good player and will surely continue to be an everyday or near-everyday guy. But there’s a slight bonus to adding a guy like Dex b/c you can put a bat-first lineup out if you want to.
Jeff, I Don’t disagree with that assessment at all.
He walks almost never, doesn’t hit enough extra base hits given his speed, and in spite of his speed he’s not a particularly efficient base stealer. He’s not a bad clutch hitter, but overall, he doesn’t provide much offense for an outfielder. If he were an average defender, he’d likely be at AAA or playing for a second-tier team.
If my aunt had you know what, she would be you know who, right? Again, he does what is needed of him on THIS particular club, which is play excellent defense w/some occasional offense.
Not arguing that. I was only commented on the rap he gets on offense, which is deserved. He’s one of the top 3 outfield defenders in baseball, along with Bradley and Kiermaier, and in a strong lineup, he’s definitely valuable. Depending on how the offseason goes for the Jays though, he may or may not be a luxury they can afford.
That is the fact though, Pillar has one of the best gloves in the game. He may not hit as many homers as the perennial MVP Josh Donaldson, but he saves an incredible amount of runs. His WAR was 3.4 this year which is down from his 5.2 last year. Pillar is a top center fielder, he does need to hit better, but his glove makes up for his bat.
He puts up that WAR despite his bat. That shows how good his glove has been
You don’t put up over 5 WAR just because of defense. His offense was a plus in ’15.
His defence is great. Gold glove finalist. Holds his own with the bat and played through an injured thumb half the year. Great team guy and a gamer. His diving catches and wall crashes are going to catch up to him though. Many teams would love to have him but he’s a keeper unless he goes in a deal for an upgraded bat in CF like Blackmon
He played with a torn ligament in his left hand since early August which really shut down his power and base stealing – a gamer for sure.
He was a pretty darn good hitter in the minors not sure why that has not translated up in the Show – however he did hit .278 last year and was 25 for 29 in stolen bases – this year that dropped off; although he still had 35 doubles this year
because he had an 80 wRC+.
No thank you to Ian Desmond. He was basically a right handed hitting Michael Saunders in the second half
His stats weren’t nearly as bad as Saunders but we’re still not very inspiring.
Wow lots of grammar mistakes – Saunders’* were*
Thanks autocorrect
JFisnasty I agree on Desmond, not because I don’t think he couldn’t help the team but because I don’t think it makes a whole lot of sense. Desmond is going to get paid pretty well by someone but the blue jays would be better of using that money to resign Saunders. The jays are too right handed to begin with and Desmond doesn’t bring something that they can’t get from Saunders or Bautista other than maybe speed. unless they wanted to sign Desmond to play short and trade tulo for a left handed bat like conforto from the mets
You can pencil in 150 games, 20 hr, and about 70 RBI for Desmond per year
For tulo 30 hr 90 RBI if he could play the 150 but I don’t think he will ever be that guy again.
The mets seem to want that big name guy which is why I think tulo would be a good fit. He always wanted to play in NYC and the mets get a potential superstar. Confortos stock has declined the last year maybe enough to were the jays could get him, he would benefit from playing at a very hitter friendly ballpark. The mets have a deep outfield system and can afford to let him go even more if they can resign cespedes
Dude, Tulo isn’t getting traded. There just isn’t any other viable options at SS right now on the MLB roster or in the minors and this is a contending team so they’re going to need him. Plus, his contract paying him 20+ MM until 2020 (I think) won’t be taken on by any teams. He’s a great defender but has lost a step now that he’s in his 30’s and he can still swing it a bit but his total package for his age + contract + injury history won’t be getting many phone calls. Just my two cents. I love Tulo but I am realistic about his output and future.
I agree, my post said they would have to sign Desmond to play ss, as he was one of the best ss in baseball before 2015. Tulo showed this year that even with an off year for him that he is still very capable of hitting 30 hr and 90 rbi, yes the contract is a problem and they would have to eat some of it but if your telling me that a team wouldn’t trade for a ss that can hit 30 and drive in close to 100 a year while playing well above average defense then you must not know much about baseball. As I wrote in a previous post, the problem with him is that you can’t even expect a healthy 130 games from him
There isn’t a team out there dumb enough to take on his ridiculous contract. That’s saying a lot since there are quite a few dumb teams.
Tulo is not a star anymore. And Asdrubal Cabrera had a great year at less than half the price.
How is Saunders on defense now?
Lol, he’s had some horrible plays
Awful. In the playoffs he was the one getting dh’d over Bautista
He rates pretty low in the field. His stats kind of contradict each other which backs up his poor defensive play. He has a high percentage of .990 but a -11 defensive runs saved which means he’s making the routin plays pretty well but that’s about it
My dream offseason (don’t miss the “dream” part!) would see EE return and the Jays add Votto and Blackmon. That would still leave a hole in a corner outfield spot, I realize, but someone already in the organization could do a good enough job if my desired additions came to pass. Two high OBP lefties would solve much of what ailed the Jays’ offense in 2016. My two cents.
They’d be world series contenders with those additions. At least for 2017 they would be. The later years of Votto and EE might be pretty rough contract-wise. Plus the Rockies would probably want a good haul of young pitching for Blackmon, he was a monster this year. So they wouldn’t make these moves, but a lineup featuring Blackmon-Donaldson-Votto-EE-Tulo is drool-worthy.
Ya, I won’t hold my breath on the Blackmon component. Someone like Stroman might have to be included. I think Votto is a realistic possibility. I can’t help but think that TO might not have to give up much and still be able to get Cinci to kick in 40-50 million bucks. Votto at 18-20 million (if Cin sends cash) per season is bearable IMO.
The Reds really have no reason to deal Votto which means it would take one hell of a package to get him. Doubly so if the Reds are kicking in any money. Think Sanchez as a headliner with other moving pieces. I know people will think that’s crazy but the Jays severely lack any “can’t miss” talent in the minors. Pompey has potential but his value has plummeted over the last 2 years. Alford struggled with injuries/performance and his value dropped considerably from a year ago. Vladdy Jr looks real good but he’s too far away to hold any real value right now. Beyond that you have your Connor Greene’s, Jon Harris’ and Bo Bichette’s but none of them hold that “wow” factor needed to land a player of Votto’s caliber. The Jays can easily offer a quantity package but would get blown out of the water by teams like Boston if Votto were available.
We’ll see. I have a suspicion that it won’t take much to acquire Votto. There is always the chance Cinci wants to get out from under a contract that they won’t compete during it’s term. It’ll be an interesting offseason for sure.
I think Sanchez is a little too much maybe if it was 1:1 I think stroman is a reasonable headliner with other moving pieces
Or maybe ozuna as the headliner
Joey Votto is 33 years old. Yes, he is still a very good player. However, there is no way I would trade 24-year old Aaron Sanchez, who has ace-stuff, in a deal for him. I also don’t include Ozuna. That would make zero sense. The Blue Jays bullpen is already a weak link. Why trade the strongest part of that bullpen? Maybe if I was getting Paul Golschmidt in return I’d include Ozuna, but not for Votto
The jays have WEAK farm system. The reds are in no hurry to trade votto. If they don’t get what they want for him they would move right on without ever looking back, the same stance the Yankees took with miller. Ozuna is not irreplaceable, just like miller and chapman and Rivera when he still played. Sanchez is definetely off limits in any trade talks but guys like ozuna and stroman are probably going to be asked about a lot in any blockbuster trade. Which is why I don’t think the jays will make a huge trade because it would take away from their major league roster. I see them signing a free agent or 2 and making a trade for an undervalued reliever or signing melancin
I agree not many teams taking on that contract. But he suited more for AL in the later stages.
Never.
If Toronto wanted the remaining 7/$170 on 33 year old Votto, the Red Sox would giggle with delight as a division rival grabs the back end of another A-Rod / Pujols type of contract.
Jon Heymab just called the Jays farm system a top ten in the league. People really don’t research before they say things. Rowdy Tellez would almost certainly be a centrepiece for a Votto trade. Cin won’t want players half way through their control for a rebuilding team.
John Manuel of Baseball America says the Jays have a top 10 system too.
If you say so. None of their prospects are in MLBs top 60 and Tellez isn’t in the top 100. For a Votto, the Jays don’t have a “centrepiece” in their system.
Sign Edwin to 4 year deal. Offer QO to Bautista, decline QO to Saunders. Let Saunders walk. If Bautista accepts QO, then OF is settled because the Jays need to give Pompey a chance to play to determine once and for all what kind of player he is. If Bautista declines QO (that’s what I think he will do if he receives one), then tell him thanks for his contributions to the club and good luck and let him walk, too. Offer 3 or 4 year deals (with less than $17.2M AAV) to Fowler first, then Reddick. If either of them accepts the deal, there’s new starting RF. If both of them decline the deal, then offer incentives laden 1 year deal to Rasmus. Just say no to Desmond under any circumstances.
It’s going to take a lot to get EE. A LOT. Because all of Boston, New York and Texas have glaring DH holes and money to spend. He’s getting a commitment of $120M, without doubt…so it’s doubtful 4 years is gonna do it.
Boston is probably the Jays’ strongest competitor in signing EE, but they have this albatross known as Pablo Sandoval’s contract to get rid of first. If Sandoval isn’t traded, then I don’t think Red Sox will be able to make a contract offer that Toronto will not be able to match. The Yankees have become bottom line watching team since Hal took over, and I think the Yankees are aiming for even bigger fish next year (i.e. Bryce Harper) after it sheds Sabathia’s and ARod’s contracts off its books. Texas needs pitching first and foremost. They need two SPs right now, at least one of them needs to be a high quality. It’s Boston or Toronto for EE in my opinion. And EE will stay in Toronto if he receives similar offer from those teams.
I think Boston has bigger concerns than a DH, namely SP. They have plenty of DH options. Not many people are mentioning Pedroia at DH. He can extend his career DHing half the time and Moncada can play 2b and 3b. The Yanks are trying to lessen their luxury tax hit and have other options as well. But if Bos, NYY or Bal get him, that really hurts the Jays. I think Tex and Sea could be bigger players. But I agree $120M sounds about right over 4 maybe 5 years. If he commands 25M/yr I would rather sign Cespedes for 30M/yr. Two years younger and can replace Bat Flip. Lots of other DH types available like K. Morales for maybe 12-15M/yr
You’re kidding, right? They’re near the end of the Allen Craig disaster as well as no longer having the Ortiz contract…it’s absurd to think the Sox are worried about money at all. And with Hamels and Darvish at the front of their rotation, the Rangers are hardly panicking. Nor are the Sox. The Sox are only worried about their bullpen at the moment, and replacing Ortiz.
There’s also no chance, at least for now, that Pedroia will DH. The most commonly considered option is seeing if Sandoval will DH to get his swing back and putting Moncada at third if he’s ready. Shaw remains an option too. But the Sox are already thinking about waiving Sandoval and moving on.
I want nothing to do with Rasmus. Been there and dealt with that. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not a bad player but the Jays already have way too many all or nothing hitters.
I’m actually alright with a Carrera/Upton platoon in LF. It may not seem all that great but both are far superior defenders than Saunders and offer a higher floor than Saunders(though with a considerably lower ceiling).
I’ve been wanting Fowler for over a year now as his skill set is perfect for the Jays lineup. I originally wanted him to replace Joey in RF but upon further inspection, he’s only played 87 innings in RF since turning pro in 2005, with just a single inning being in the MLB. So LF definitely seems like the smarter play though I don’t see a reason he couldn’t handle RF. Regardless, Fowler is a massive upgrade on D and on the base paths without sacrificing the OBP.
Adding Fowler and keeping EE should be all the team needs to keep a strong offence. I’d love to add a legit bat for 1st but none are available in FA and Jays lack the assets to acquire a Votto without creating a massive hole in the rotation. Mitch Moreland could be an option depending on price though his numbers leave a lot to be desired despite playing his home games at the extremely hitter friendly park in Arlington. Adam Lind could be a solid buy low option though he’s far better suited to be DH.
Moreland is a good defender and could certainly help the Jays at 1B/DH. He shouldn’t be too costly. 10-12M probably. Fowler is interesting as well but I think would be best suited in CF which would move Pillar to RF likely and he has a decent arm. Certainly better than what Bautista had the past few years.
The Jays dont want Bautista back, period. I also think there a chance, just a chance Donaldson could get traded, it is obvious he is a difficult player to manage, his role in the late season brawl with the yankees was selfish and unnecessary, there were also public displays of unpro behaviour in yankee stadium and in a series in Minnesota. I think traded while his value is sky high with 2 years of affordable control would be wise toat least field offers.
Don’t know why you had to mention stroman, but is it surprising that our 4th best starter wasn’t cy young caliber this year? But between his youth and prior two part seasons, he could very easily improve on this one and be a star
Wrong post damn
Donaldson is the definition of a gamer, why the hell would you trade him, he plays through everything, I think billy bean posted this lol
I don’t want him traded, I’m a huge Donaldson fan, huge, I feel he’s the best player the Jays have ever had, love the guy, but, I watch the Jays closely, I can see that he can be difficult, he lets his emotions get the best of him, I’m just thinking his value won’t ever be higher, and your either going to sign him to at least a 5 year 150 million floor , or your not.
Agreed, JP Arencebia was going to be the catcher of the future at the time, they didn’t have a need for Napoli at the time, they needed pitching.
So you must be a very BIGLY Donaldson fan ..lol
The Jays would gladly take Bautista back at 17.2M as their DH and PT RF. But only as a fall back to EE
You guys can forget Votto. He’s not going anywhere.
Cardinals would be glad to take Pillars weak bat out of your lineup for you!
Jays should have shipped Bautista early this season, now he walks with nothing to show just like Halladay (poorly timed deal), Wells, Rios, etc. Toronto is better off without Bautista. EE should be the focus for the Jays front office. Forget about Saunders, just a typically overrated Jay, he hit .178 in the second half. Final tip, Jays? Marcus Stroman is not Cy Young.
How did Halladay walk with nothing to show? He was traded for three high-end prospects. Maybe the end result wasn’t great, but he brought a good haul when they traded him and you can’t judge that with hindsight. Wells had a ridiculous contract — trading him for salary relief alone (they got Napoli too) was a steal for Toronto and a total disaster for the Angels. Same with Rios — he had no value and getting salary relief was a great move by Toronto.
Jays fans are too quick to defend the errors of their front office. The timing of the Halladay deal was awful, the Jays painted themselves in a corner. Hindsight? That was my evaluation leading up to and following the trade. Further, you cannot reasonably be satisfied with the return for Halladay. Wells and Rios both had absurd deals, but the Jays gave out both those deals. So, creating a mess, then solving that mess, is self-inflicted. Jays have made poor decisions in the past regarding retaining players and they continue to do so. If I have to listen to one more Jays fan defend the Dickey trade, well, I can’t.
Drabek was just as highly rated as Syndergaard, maybe you didn`t like him in all your baseball acumen, but you can”t realistically look at both trades and say the Jays got creamed in both of them. If it was a huge overpay for Dickey, then how could what they got for Halladay have been a huge underpay? Do you really think Halladay was worth THAT much more than Dickey that an extra top-100 prospect still wasn`t even close enough to make the deals comparable? What did you expect, another 2 top-10 prospects for him??
The prospects received were decent enough. Unfortunately they didn’t pan out. You would hope one of the three would but some bad luck there. Even D’arnaud is a flame out IMO. Can’t stay healthy.
First off, Halladay and Wells did not walk away with nothing to show for it. Wells for Napoli while shedding the entire albatross salary is one of the best trades ever done by the Jays (Napoli for Francisco is at the other end of the spectrum).
Halladay brought back 3 well-regarded prospects that flopped, but we are at least still getting value out of the at trade (Travis), Given the fact that he was one of the best pitchers in baseball at the time of the trade, they should have gotten more back, but only having one year and a very limited number of teams he would accept a trade to greatly reduced the return you’d expect to get back for an ace.
Rios was an August waiver claim during a terrible season where Chicago took his overinflated contract.
Bautista had 10-5 rights before this season even starter, so there’s no way you were trading him before he hits FA, and the Jays still get a draft pick out of him, so again, not leaving for nothing.
You seem to be a pretty horrible evaluator.
Instantly trading Napoli for Frank Francisco qualifies as a disaster, though.
That was under the old CBA AA was just using Francisco to hoard draft picks, I believe he was one of the reasons they changed the system.
Regardless – Napoli immediately helped the Rangers get to within a strike of their first championship and had actually been named WS MVP before the Cards made their crazy comeback. I think that kinda guy is worth a load more than draft picks.
AA had no illusions of contention, that being said I didn’t like trading Napoli either I was just stating the method to his madness. Not his best trade but hardly a disaster given the circumstances.
If the Jays want to save some dough, they could do worse than signing Napoli for 2 years with an option. At lease he can play a little 1B as well.
First of all, you are going to get a 1st rounder for him, which could turn out better than what many teams would have been willing to give up for him in July ( or August 1st). Second, Doc got D’Arnaud (#3 at the time), Taylor (#2 at the time) and Drabek (#11 at the time) back– those rankings are from minorleagueball,com (Phillies top prospects 2009)-
Regardless, the Jays felt like they were getting a very toolsy starting OF, a great defensive starting catcher and a very, very high upside starter, who was a little bit of a lottery ticket. At the time it was a very good haul, and D’arnaud was traded for Dickey (and is starting for the Mets). That deal was mostly bad luck though for the Jays.
I don’t think anyone thinks stro is cy young lol, Aaron, Marco and happ will are glorified way more than stroman this year
As said before Bautista had 10 to 5 rights so by bringing that up it shows me you know very little about the blue Jay’s. The Doc trade was a tiny underpayment but let’s be realistic everyone in baseball knew doc wanted to leave to win Toronto had very little leverage so I was so actually a little surprised we got 3 top 100 specs when I went down. None turned out but that’s life you have to take those risks or you lose doc for nothing.
Signing EE and Reddick would seem to be the best options for the Jays.
Agreed I liked fowler too
I still think they should trade Jose Bautista to the Pirates for Andrew McCutchen, just saying that would be a win-win situation
I would imagine the Jays would love to trade a free agent for Andrew McCutchen, I’m going to guess the Pirates would not like the idea of trading McCutchen for no one.
That would be quite the deal for the Jays!
If Chris Colabello is considered an option for the Jays’ 25-man roster next year then it’s going to be a long year. Dude was 2/29 with 9 K before his PED suspension, then proceeded to mash a .180/.248/.280 line with 46 K in 139 AB for AAA. And he’s 33 years old.
The Jays should look at some of the mets lefty outfielders. Granderson and Bruce would both be a decent fit for the Jays.
If Rogers doesn’t increase the jays pay roll everyone immediately cancel their Rogers services
I love how Billy Hamilton gets no love for being one of the best if not the best defensive center fielder. Pillar is good but hes no better than Billy
It’s bcuz Billy Hamilton runs so damn fast that he doesn’t need to make the spactacular plays that Pillar consistently makes. Pillar diving catches are more routine for Hamilton.
Defensive metrics say otherwise. Pillar`s range rates as being superior to Hamilton`s, including making almost twice as many out of zone plays. Their UZR/150s are only comparable because Hamilton has a better arm and makes less errors (probably also because of a better arm).
Hamilton is a china doll. Too many injuries already in his short career. I would cringe every time I saw him dive for a ball or hit the fence. I will take Pillar, thank you
Thank you.