Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins met with the media today and addressed a number of topics, including qualifying offers for the team’s free agents, his club’s offseason needs, Jason Grilli‘s club option and much, much more. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith was among the many on hand and relayed a number of highlights from Atkins’ media session (all links to Twitter)…
- The Blue Jays, as has been widely expected, will issue qualifying offers to both Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista barring some form of unforeseen injury popping up between now and the point at which that decision must formally be made. The Jays are “still working” on determining whether they’ll make a QO to Michael Saunders, who enjoyed a massively productive first half of the season before flaming out in the season’s final months. Toronto would, of course, receive a compensatory draft pick for any free agent that rejects the one-year, $17.2MM qualifying offer and signs with a new team. The Jays will “do everything” they can during contract talks with Encarnacion and Bautista in the exclusive five-day window they have with their own free agents following the completion of the World Series. Atkins added that he still feels Bautista can be an effective defensive outfielder.
- Atkins described right-hander Jason Grilli’s affordable $3MM club option as “as near to a no-brainer” as you’ll find in baseball, per Nicholson-Smith. The soon-to-be-40-year-old Grilli came over to the Jays in a minor swap back on May 31 after struggling with the Braves through the first two months of the season and rebounded tremendously with Toronto. In 42 innings with the Blue Jays, Grilli posted a 3.64 ERA with 12.4 K/9 against 4.9 BB/9. Those numbers would’ve been better had Grilli not served up six runs in his final 1 2/3 innings of the regular season (he had a 2.45 ERA in Toronto prior to that stretch), but he was terrific in the postseason, tossing 3 2/3 scoreless innings with three punchouts, one hit and no walks.
- Kevin Pillar had a thumb injury this season but played through the pain, the GM revealed. Surgery is being considered to remedy Pillar’s hand, but even if he goes under the knife he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training. A thumb injury could help to explain Pillar’s power outage over the season’s final couple of months. While he’s never exactly been a slugger, Pillar went homerless over his final 78 games of the season, hitting .270/.311/.333 in that time. Even with the thumb injury, Pillar was very arguably the best defensive player in Major League Baseball this season. His +21 marks in both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating ranked third and second among all players at all positions, with only Adam Eaton of the White Sox topping him in both categories. But, much of Eaton’s defensive work came in right field after being moved out of center partly due to poor defensive ratings there last season.
- There are no plans to stretch closer Roberto Osuna out to try him as a starter again, so it would seem that the 22-year-old phenom has laid claim to the Toronto closer’s gig for good. Osuna came up as a starter through the minors, of course, but he wound up closing games in 2015 out of necessity and has been one of baseball’s best stoppers since assuming that role. Over the past two years, he has a 2.63 ERA with 9.8 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 in 143 2/3 innings.
- Rule 5 pick Joe Biagini, on the other hand, could be stretched back out and given a look in the rotation, Atkins said (via Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star). Selected out of the Giants organization, the 26-year-old Biagini was perhaps the best pick of this year’s Rule 5 class, totaling 67 2/3 innings with a 3.06 ERA to go along with 8.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 52.2 percent ground-ball rate. Biagini was a starter with in the Giants’ minor league system and could give the Jays some valuable rotation depth if the team elects to go that route.
- Of course, if Toronto does move Biagini to a starting role, it’ll only further the need for bullpen help. Atkins said the team expects to address that need this winter and is willing to go to three or more years for the “right” free agent reliever, per Nicholson-Smith. The Jays are set to lose Brett Cecil and Joaquin Benoit to free agency this winter.
- Generally speaking, Atkins said the Jays will look to potentially add “more balance, more platoon advantage and potentially more speed,” via Nicholson-Smith. The Jays feel that the free-agent market suits their needs well (Twitter link), as the team has a good amount of starting depth but needs to add some corner outfield/first base/DH types, which are indeed fairly plentiful this winter.
One big FA reliever would be really nice. They’ll be a lot of teams in on Jansen/Melancon/Chapman, but those seem like the “right” relievers to invest years on.
They are just being polite on a QO for Michael Saunders. There is no chance he gets a QO. I do not see how the Jays can compete with other teams for EE. It will be an interesting off season for the Jays.
The Jays can resign EE if they want to. They have a lot of payroll coming off the books. They can replace Bautista with a younger, cheaper option, but losing EE’s production will make it very tough for them to compete next year. And the last thing we need is Votto and his huge contract. I would rather give EE 25M a year for 4 years. His year 4 production should be close to that value of 25M. But someone will probably offer him a ridiculous contract that the Jays won’t match. If it gets to that point they might as well try to sign Cesepedes.
I don’t see a commitment of less than $120M getting EE, be it 4 or 5 years. All of the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rangers have DH holes and money to spend….nobody, including the Jays will get him for the price they have in mind internally.
That’s my point. No way the Jays go 30M/yr. As much as I would like to see EE back, that’s insane and the Jays don’t do “insane”.
Might as well sign Cespedes if they are willing to go 30M/yr. Plan B, Moreland, Reddick and one of the top RP. That would give them a sick bullpen and replace some of the lost offence.
They traded Norris to Tigers and Syndergaard to the Mets, eh?
Yes. What’s your point? Trade young, controllable, cheap pitching for a bat?
But Edwin COULD pull a Bautista and hit .233 with 20 homers in his third year of the contract. I can’t believe how many guys are cold on Votto. He is THE BEST player in the game today at actually GETTING ON BASE–the # 1 thing you need to do as an offense in the game of baseball (remember how we DID NOT get on base against Cleveland)?. Everybody continually brings up his contract EVEN AS you talk about how ridiculous (and yes, paying a DH $25+ million a year is ridiculous), contracts are getting. You can have Votto AND cost certainty for 8 seasons at a bargain 25 mil (did I mention again he is FAR AND AWAY THE BEST PLAYER IN BASEBALL TODAY AT GETTING ON BASE). It’s not rocket science guys! If all we had to give up was a prospect and take on the salary, adding Votto is an absolute no brainer.
The problem isn’t the aav it’s the years 8 years is alot no matter how great he is and then on top of it he’s the face of the franchise so the reds are asking for prospects back were as Edwin granted older is on less years and costs just $ plus draft pick
I’m not a fan of stretching Biagini out to start. He may have a 3 pitch mix(FB, SL, CB) but none of them are really “plus” pitches. His breaking pitches played up in the BP thanks to the added velocity on his fastball(4 mph). Going back to the rotation, his velocity would drop back down to around 90 mph. With Sanchez, Stroman, Happ, Estrada and Liriano already slated for the rotation, he’s much more valuable as a 7th/8th inning guy. Doubly so when you consider the very likely high price tag of even average relievers in FA this winter.
It would seem to me QO’s for both Encarnacion and Bautista are a no brainer for the Jays. Both will surely receive multi year deals from somebody with with a QO attached to them.
I do understand that it takes a little more thought before they decide on Saunders for a QO.
Saunders only makes sense if the team thinks they’ll lose both Bautista and EE.
Saunders is not worth 17.2 over 3 years, let alone one should he accept. Easily replaceable.
Maybe, maybe not. There’s not a ton of decent FAs out there this year, let alone elite ones. A thin market can lead to stupid spending…
I’m not sure that I would put Saunders in the “elite” category. There are several suitable FA outfielders this winter.
Never said Saunders was elite…he’s average at best, really. My point is that it’s a thin market, and thin markets lead to overpayments.
@ John Murray, my reply was for/to “Macburns” who certainly in his comment was implying Saunders was elite with his reference to “There’s not a ton of decent FAs out there this year, let alone elite ones.” That leads one to believe he’s soliciting a comparison of Saunders to elite replacement FA.
I’ve got different names on my phone and my laptop – I’m Macburns and JohnMurray lol. And no, I wasn’t calling Saunders elite. My point was, that with limited FA options, even average FA OF will be paid well this year. Saunders certainly isn’t close to elite; with his defensive shortcomings, lousy second half and no real past track record to speak of, he’s a big risk to pay even $12M on a one year deal. Not sure why they’d even be thinking of a QO for him.
I wonder what the plans are for Chris Collabello ( spelling??). Do they give him another chance?
I can’t see it to be perfectly honest. He was beyond bad this year both in the MLB(.069/.156/.069 albeit in an incredibly small sample) and wasn’t much better at AAA(.180/.248/.288 in 153 PA). Add in the PED baggage and the fact he has zero defensive value, he should be a near lock to be let go.
With two of their three best hitters likely going to another team (and quite possibly at least one to a division rival), it feels like the Jays’ window for contention is over. What makes Bautista and Encarnacion so valuable is their ability to hit for power and get on base regularly without striking out a million times. I don’t see any free agent on the market that can replicate that kind of production (Edit: Hm, Cespedes maybe, but he will likely fall out of their price range). If Shapiro can get this team to contend in 2017 he will likely be the GM of the year…
Yep. The window is definitely closed. Can’t go far with one of the best rotations in the AL, 4 out of 5 infield positions set (including the 2015 MVP) with above average players, the best defensive CF in the game, and a budget that will likely run between 160 and 175 million. No chance.
It will be closed only if ownership decides to close it. EE or a similar bat is a must to contend.
Lol well said :). They’ll be contenders, yes, but they are going to need a much better bullpen to contend if they lose both sluggers, because Donaldson will lose some production if he’s the only big bat.
Lmao “because Donaldson will lose some production if he is the only big bat.” Donaldson won’t lose production he is a top ten player in the league he has the talent to make up any numbers you seem to think he’ll lose if EE or Bautista leave.
Well let’s be honest. Donaldson is a tremendous player but if he’s the only big bat in the lineup teams don’t have to necessarily pitch to him especially if they can’t get guys on in front of him. He will be pitch differently without an EE. So will he lose production probably but not significant enough production to hurt his FA contract.
Well…he went from very good to elite when he started hitting in front of two big bats. It’s ludicrous to think he won’t be pitched around a lot if only Tulo and Martin are hitting behind him. So yeah, it’s silly to think he won’t lose something.
They need to add some speed or at least some good obp guys..too many times i see the jays just waiting for the home run and that does not work in the playoffs against good pitching………maybe losing EE and Bautista will give them more of a Cleveland or KC offense….
A Cleveland or KC offense? In other words, a much worse offense than what the Jays had?
Totally agree. Teams will pitch around JD without someone behind him for protection. His numbers are likely to suffer but he will still be elite.
As a red sox fan I still fear the jays even if they lose all 3 the will probably replace one of them and still have a really good pitching staff plus are in a great place to start on offense with a really good hitting catcher ss and 3b onot top of that could spend $ in a trade or another free agent and as far as Donaldson suffering pitchers still aren’t going to want to pitch around him to pitch to Martin or tulo and his offense was suffering in Oakland as well with that terrible offense
Martin and Tulo aren’t particularly fearsome. There was some talk of benching Martin even in the playoffs because of his offensive struggles and his declining numbers in throwing out base runners. Tulo has hit under .250 since moving to an AL East team. And when Donaldson was in Oakland, it was hardly a horrible team. His last year there, they were the best team in the AL until the final six weeks of the season.
Tulowitzki though after his return from injury wasn’t he hitting a ton better I know he was average and Homer’s went up as far as Donaldson he never had a Bautista and ee or someone similar even cespedes didn’t hit as well as he has since he left which was halfway through that season poor choice of words as far as terrible but definitely no one in that line up that forces u to pitch to Donaldson and as far as Martin he’s still an above average hitting player at a position that usually offers little in the former of offense
Hit better, but still nowhere near EE. And while Martin is good offensively for a catcher, he’s not a threat that would offer lineup protection.
I never thought or said he was ee good just wouldn’t expect them to not be in contention even losing ee and Bautista as crazy as you might think it is with those two guys missing they play positions that can be filled with solid even if unspectacular options enough to be a good offense and with that decent pitching staff (could be one of the best in the al)are a team to worry about as a red sox fan I mean they could let all 3 free agents walk and sign guys like morales and Reddick all be it they won’t replicate their offense they would be better than most offenses as a team strictly by getting really good production from 2 positions that alot of teams don’t get league average production from and having a really deep offense 1-8 or 9
Atkins said yesterday that they won’t allow emotion to enter into their negotiations with EE and Joey, which is basically code for they aren’t going to overpay so might as well consider them gone. I agree with Nick. They Jays have about 45M coming of the books with their FA’s and aren’t looking at much in the way of Arb raises. So if it were me, I would target K. Morales, Reddick and a platoon mate for Smoak. Moreland/L. Morrison…
So the Jays line up would look like this for 2017.
2b Travis
3b JD
DH Morales
RF Reddick
SS Tulo
C Martin
1B Smoak/Moreland
CF Pillar
LF Cabrera/Upton
Reddick/Morales/ Moreland could probably be had for 35-40M annually combined with only Reddick probably commanding a 4 year deal. The other 2 probably 2 with an option gets it done. Those 3 plus a full year of ABs from Upton probably comes close to replacing the lost power. Reddick is an improvement in RF defensively as are Cabrera/Upton in LF and Smoak at 1B. Also more team speed. Not sure if this addresses the Predominately right hitting line up. Even elite RP aren’t being paid crazy money, but if the Jays want to pay 10-15M more they could chase any if the big 3 available, move Osuna to set up (he can also go 2 innings on occasion) Grilli in the 7th. This line up might even be better than this year and keeps them as solid contenders for the next 2-3 years.
And as much as it might be more of an after thought they are letting two draft compensation guys go and replacing them with people that don’t require draft compensation so they would be building up a farm system for further trades or depth that could be used to fix other needs that may come up later on or get a younger player that could offer similar production a few years down the line
That’s assuming none of the 3 I mention get QO.
Reddick can’t as he was traded mid-season morales learned his lesson last time by all accounts kc is fearful he might accept and they cant afford him as their payroll is already extremely high for the royals Moreland is the only question mark of the 3 and I’m guessing for he got offered he might accept that’s purely speculative on my end
Cleveland had the second highest scoring offence in the AL. And the Jays weren’t no. 1. And Cleveland’s still playing. In what way is Cleveland’s offence “much worse” than the Jays’?
Lol well said.
I’m not a Blue Jays fan, but I’m a bit more bullish on their chances next season. If and when they make a bullpen addition or two, they’ll still have one of the better pitching staffs in the AL East. And let’s not forget that Bautista’s production this year fell off a lot and is more or less replaceable, and quite possibly one of him or EE will return next year. Donaldson, Tulo, Martin, Pillar, and Travis are an excellent core of returning position players. And if they get a little more left-handed in their offense that could help a bit as well. To sum up, they’ll still be contenders next year, I would assume.
Agreed. And the Jays don’t really have the prospects to deal for established talent. I’d aim for EE with a giant bag of money and hope Bautista signs to the NL.
Try to sign EE, and if they miss, aim for Votto. If they take on the money, I don’t think the trade cost would be high. Then target a Reddick or equivalent for right, and give Pompey his shot, with Upton and Carrera as insurance. The rest of the cash should go to the bullpen.
You act like they’d be losing 2 6+ WAR players. They combined for 4.7 WAR last year, and the Jays’ record was actually better when Bautista was injured. Their window will not be closed because they lose one or both of them.
Their window is no way closed because they have a great staff. They just need to change the formula. It was clearly evident they need more contact in the indians series. They also don’t need premium prospects if they are willing to take on some contract money. Granted they don’t have what it takes to get a Votto. But with Shapiro and Atkins you’ll probably see a greater emphasis on pitching and defense. While also mixing and matching players upon matchups.
I’d be hesitant to call the staff great; they had a great year. But then again, Estrada and Happ have had journeyman careers, and there’s not many who maintain performance like theirs in 2016 when in their early to mid thirties. Stroman might be the most overrated pitcher in baseball; save for his nice stretch in less than 10 starts in 2015, the guy hasn’t been anything special. Sanchez is the best they have. But are they REALLY deep? Time will tell.
A guy with a career 3.38 FIP is the most overrated pitcher in baseball? I’d love to see the most underrated…
FIP is a limited stat. It always amuses me to see people trumpet it. Those who think there’s nothing more to a pitcher than homers, walks and strikeouts are kidding themselves. Stroman is overrated because he frequently loses himself in games, pitching great for four innings and then giving up three runs out of the blue.
Mr Murray, I’m not a huge Stroman fan but I am pretty sure any team in the majors would want him if he were to be made available. He is young, inexpensive and controllable. His best years are still to come and at a projected 5M in Arb this coming year a huge asset. He has a great make up and will only get better as he matures
I wouldn’t argue that because he would carry little risk, and pitching is a hot commodity right now. I’m unsure of his makeup; I think that’s his weakness myself. He’s got great stuff for sure, but his ability to give up big innings – IMHO – speaks to his makeup.
By make up I am referring to his intensity, dedication and being a team player. He was willing to pitch when asked in the playoffs and didn’t act like a prima Donna when essentially being made their number 4 guy. Look how hard he worked to get back in time from the playoffs last year. He conducts himself very professionally for a young guy. He is prone to the 3 run inning as you say. He needs to harness that intensity on the mound and I’m sure he will with more experience. He really should be the ace of the staff but I guess you can give that title to Sanchez for now. Happ turned out to be a good signing although I hated it at first, especially as consolation prize after Price didn’t resign and Estrada has been great. Those two can probably be count on for 30 wins combined in 2017 and in fact Liriano could join them. Was fantastic coming over from PIT. I will gladly take him as a number 5. There are no “flukes” in their rotation. All five are capable of 15 wins in 2017 if they stay healthy. Goodbye Dickey. Sure wish we didn’t do that deal. Thor would look real good in that rotation. But still they probably have the best rotation in the AL again in 2017.
FIP is limited in comparison to what? What stat(s) are you using to determine Stroman is extremely overrated? His xFIP and SIERA are both under 3.50 too.
Maybe you could point to his WPA, which is only 1.65, otherwise, I’m not sure what measure besides ERA you’re using to make that statement (and his ERA+ is 104, not exactly terrible).
Allowing runs is the measure I use, not to mention compiling a losing record for a playoff team. Nothing terribly complicated about that. And being that he started the year as their presumed ace and wound up their #4 guy…that kinda says a lot about how the team views him too. He’s got lots to prove yet.
I wouldn’t call Happ or Estrada flukes – but I’d also say they had as good a year as could be hoped in 2016. It’s like anything else in modern baseball – a staff can only be viewed as “best” looking backwards, not forwards, with the amount of injury risk for any pitcher out there.
W/L record is 50% a product of run support, it’s largely considered a useless statistic now. ERA has some value, but it doesn’t tell you anything but what literally happened. FIP and other statistics tell you what would’ve happened barring elements that are considered to be largely out of the pitcher’s control (BABIP, strand rate, etc.). It’s much more predictive of future performance than ERA. You can’t honestly believe that some pitchers don’t luck into better ERAs than they should’ve had, and vice-versa.
Since you’re talking about what teams did as holding weight, you can look to Sanchez being taken out of the rotation in ’15 even though he had a 3.55 ERA as a starter, because he clearly wasn’t pitching as well as his ERA indicated. Barely better than a 1:1 K/BB ratio, a 1.44 WHIP. Yes, he got injured leading to that, but that in itself would’ve had no bearing on removing him from the rotation, they clearly thought it was a good excuse to get him out of there and back into the bullpen where he was pitching better.
Toss in all the SABRs you want, I keep coming back to the fact that the Jays had a pile less faith in him by September as they did in April. Why? Because he’s not the guy they thought he was in April. Maybe he will be someday. For now he’s not quite that guy.
I do not agree with the Biagini move either they have 5 starters and the kid they picked up in the Pittsburgh deal. is the 6th starter. A biagini grilli Osuna back end is pretty good ..add Burns and Luop and you are one good reliever from having a really good bullpen….
I do not agree with the Biagini move either they have 5 starters and the kid they picked up in the Pittsburgh deal. is the 6th starter. A biagini grilli Osuna back end is pretty good ..add Burns and Luop and you are one good reliever from having a rellay good bullpen….
love that pic. gonna miss both of em man
Others have mentioned this here too but Saunders is gone.. No way Toronto will pay 17mill for him.. Houston hated how they were stuck paying Rasmus 14.5mill last year… We need to save our money for a very good relief pitcher or two..
Give Ezequiel Carrera the everyday job in left field? I’m all for it.
Carrera and Upton can replace Saunders easily. They need a RF with a bat.
Kevin Pillar, Ezequiel Carrera and Dalton Pompey could be a solid defensive outfield ..but they do need a big bat at DH and First base…
A starting outfield of Pillar, Carrera and Pompey would barely replacement level and be amongst the worst in the major leagues. If the Jays hope to contend, that outfield will cost them 6 wins they would have to pay for elsewhere, at a much higher price than one would have to pay for a quality OF or two.
They need something WAY better than Pompey AND at least one big bat at 1B and or DH. Smoak isn’t going to cut it. Reddick seems like a decent replacement for Bautista. And if EE walks, I have no problem keeping Bautista to DH and play some RF and 1B if he’s reasonable
I know its premature, but it sorta sounds like Joeybats will be back on a qo or contract.. Upton/Carerra, pillar and joeybats outfield.. Solid.
Well idont want upton back unless management sees that his bat will come around.
Jays are paying nothing for Upton so might as well keep him around. He hit pretty well after coming to Toronto
I think if upton gets everyday at bats he could be a very good player for us. Maybe he’ll be more adapted next year and be the bat he once was in TB
I don’t think the Jays can keep both EE and Bautista. So I would offer EE $100M/4 years, opt out after year 2, and if he walks, I offer Bautista 3 years with an opt out after year one paying 20/20/15. If both walk I go after K Morales and Reddick. Probably 30M/yr combined and make a play for Chapman/Jensen/Melencon moving Osuna in an Andrew Miller type role.
I wanna go back to Votto, because I feel like I have to justify how valuable he is, and people just can’t see it (I have no idea why). Maybe most feel his salary is too high or his contract too long?
Regardless, this is really the only stat that needs to be told. Out of major league players with a minimum of 3000 plate appearances, ALL-TIME, Joey Votto is 18th in OPS. If we use current players still playing in the majors, he is 4th, and should pass Cabrera this year. The only other players ahead of him, Pujols and Trout..
I love EE. I have his jersey. My kids know him more than any other Jay maybe other than Bautista. But EE is not Votto. EE will be paid more than Votto this year. EE will probably hit more homers and drive in more runs. Everything else, including defense at first, Votto will out-perform him. And in those lean years, say year 4 or 5 of EE’s contract (because he probably will get a 5-6 year contract), Votto will BADLY out-perform him. Get on board fella’s, Votto is our guy, I’m callin it here and now.
I think the answer is somewhere in between. Votto has had 2-3 excellent seasons (2016 was one of them), more seasons that he was just very good. He’s also at his peak but being paid significantly into years in which his skills might slip a little. Add to that – he’s prone to keeping the bat in his shoulder, which makes for a pretty OPS, but he’s being paid to be the middle of the order bat, not a rally sustainer.
Let’s add that like Encarnacion, Votto is 33 and has $179M committed to him over the next 7 seasons. Unless Cincy is willing to shoulder some of that cost (and I really really doubt they are) – he’s not going to Toronto.
I think we can go back and forth til we’re blue in the face John, you do make some good points, so I’ll only bring up two things and leave this with Shapiro and Aikens.
1. When an agent represents the next big free agent first baseman (I’m talking pure first baseman who actually plays first everyday, not necessary the hybrid DH type guy like Edwin), he’s going to look at Cabrera’s contract opposed to Votto’s. So what I mean by that is, the next great first baseman in his late 20’s will probably sign for 30-35+ million a year (making Votto’s contract a huge bargain).
2. We all realize he is basically the same age as Edwin. However, one thing is certain in baseball–once you reach your mid 30’s, the power goes. Votto can be a very good first baseman for us at the age of 37 hitting .311 with 19 homers and a .400 OBP. By that time, Edwin might be hitting .236 with 24 homers and a .325 OBP. I think you can see where the value is here. Pure sluggers age a lot worse than pure hitters. Look at the careers of Musial, or even Will Clark compared to the great sluggers (Mike Schmidt is a good comparable). Once it’s gone, they have little use as players anymore. I feel because of how poor the market is, Edwin has a good shot at 5-6 years. So let’s say $25 per for 6 wherein his value is long gone by year 4. Votto has a shot at being effective just hitting doubles and getting on base in year 7. There truly is no comparison. Hopefully Shapiro agrees with me.
Any by the way, I don’t mean for it to end there. The payroll will go up, I think they’re thinking Votto and Beltran (1 year, 20-25 mil), which is probably still less than what Jose and Edwin get combined. But then you have the cost certainty, and are able to lock up JD when Beltran goes.
I would suggest he is being paid to continue being the guy he always was, which is a phenomenal all-around hitter. He hit 29 bombs in each of the last two years, fwiw. If anything, teams may view his top-quality approach as a more sustainable skill.
Anyway, it remains hard to imagine a deal coming together. He’d probably command his contract in free agency, give or take, but that doesn’t mean teams will give up prized assets to take it over. And the Reds are going to need something to motivate them beyond saving money.
Tellez would be nice compensation wouldn’t he be though Jeff? I think that gives us the advantage, where Cincy gets a nice piece at the same position and we get the star. The Reds are re-building the right way. Why pay Votto $25 mil to finish last again?
Because he’ll be the only huge contract on the book. The reds have many internal options that can slide to first where as Tellez is more suited as DH. If they are trading Votto assuming he wants to leave he is still a tremendous talent in which will require an enormous package. A package which I don’t think Toronto has now and/or is unwilling to give up. You also have to know who the GM is and their aversion to knowing he still has 7 years left on his contract. It’s just really not logical to think it’ll happen now.
Because as a face of the franchise player he brings value to the team he’s a guy you keep around forever and on top of that who else are they paying? Homer bailey that’s pretty much it mid market teams now a days have 100 million dollar payrolls Putting that $ elsewhere probably brings a few good players but none with the cashe that brings people to the stands like votto plus as you eluded to he’s a great player so are they even going to offer more value on the field? If they wanted a pure salary dump Bailey is the guy to get votto they’re going to ask for a decent return and dump $
I agree to a point. Votto has been the face of the franchise, but he’s also been the most criticized Red in many, many years. I think a fresh start might be good for not only him, but the team.
Puts butts in seats? Not sure of that either. The attendance is not good in Cincinnati. He’s also middle of the road in jersey sales in baseball overall.
I agree they may want a package. But I’d bet my right finger he’s available. That’s 25 mil in the owners pocket, and he gets to play this as a rebuild to the fans. Would be a lot harder to trade the man in 2 years if the Reds all of a sudden are playoff contenders (and the young core is very good). Money talks. You can finish last, with a very moderate attendance dip, and save 25 mil? I don’t even know if Votto would affect the attendance if they played it as a rebuild.. I’m sure Shapiro is a sharp man, however there are lots of sharp GM’s. He’d be a great fit in Boston right now as well (and move Hanley to DH full-time), among probably another 10 teams.
Only time will tell.
Every great player on 1 team forever has moments of hatred even the great pedroia as a red sox fan I hear people complaining because of his injury concern or prior to this season how he was on the decline i could see them using that young core and building around him not trying to give him away and an owner might pocket the $ but might try to hold out for a decent return as well and if you’re stuck with him it’s not going to kill them as far as attendance your right that’s Cuz they suck if that young group is really that good when you do come around your ticket/jersey sales will go up by him being there as a sort of lifer if the owner wants to really pocket $ why not revisit the Phillips deal and really explore if he’d go anywhere to save the $ this year while also exploring bailey’s market @ the deadline
Oh I bet he’s available, but the difference being it’d probably require a big package that Tor doesn’t have or other teams might not be willing to pay.
That’s the point I’m trying to make is he’s not freely available just ask the Dodgers who took all of that salary and still had to part with promising young pitching (I know the return never amounted to much but @ the time was a decent return) for adrian gonzalez and that was while taking on beckett and Crawford contracts votto this year would require at least that type of return two promising young players especially since he was better this year than when gonzalez was traded
For the team that wants to commit 7/$170M to 33 year old Joey Votto, I have but two words of warning…
Albert Pujols.
Ha, sorry John, Big Al was already on his way down hard when he was signed. Everybody knew it, all parties involved hoped for the best. But it was a predictable fall.
Votto and Albert are really not that comparable. Albert was Joe D for 10 seasons, one of the greatest hitters ever. Now he hits everything high in the air or on the ground to short. Votto was never that dominant. We also still don’t know how old Pujols actually is (this debate has gone on for years). I think Votto’s homers will start to decline, as all of his power is to left/center (he pulls essentially nothing). But his eye seems to get better with age, and for the first time (this season), he swung at a fairly large number of pitches just outside the strikezone (for him) which helped him to his lowest walk percentage in many years (take away the injury season a couple ago), and his incredible batting average. He looked more like Tony Gwynn this year that Joey Votto. .
Again, we struggle with the fact he’s going to make 25 million in 6 years (as the 7th is actually 20 million), but 25 million in 6 years might look like 10 million today. It’s all relative. Would you pay a guy with a .400, or even .385 OBP and 17 hr/37 2B 10 million? I know I would, as would every other GM in the game.
You have a better memory than I Nick, I had forgotten what was traded for A-Gone (and those contracts). I remember thinking at the time it wasn’t much, but I’m one of those guys who always look at prospects as suspects. I’d rather trade one then miss the opportunity to acquire the guy that we know can do it.
I still say if that’s what it costs then that’s what it costs. Winning is everything in sports, especially to a team that hasn’t won in 2 decades. We all know they need to change the dynamic of the team. Let’s see where this goes.
The Jays have enough good young players right now that I’m hesitant to want them to blow up the farm and just go all in now rather than just see them build a sustainable winner.
Maybe it’s just me, but I’d rather see them be good every year for the next 10 years even if they don’t win a World Series, than to see them win a World Series and then go through a long stretch where they stink and the fans disappear again (not saying those are the only two options, but just as perspective). Watching meaningless games is no fun.
Travis, Sanchez, Osuna and who else? Maybe Stroman? I’m not seeing a lot of good young players. They do still have a good core for the next year or two, but it’s much more middle-aged in baseball terms.
Pujols was 31 and coming off a season with 37 homers, 99 RBI and a .906 OPS when he signed his contract. Not sure how that’s coming down hard.
At this stage, Albert is 36 and has 5/$120 yet to be paid to him. In spite of his big RBI total in 2016, his OPS continues to shrink and isn’t likely to improve.
In 3 years, Votto will be 36 and still be owed 4/$107.
The truth is, as the bat speed diminishes, pitchers challenge guys like Votto more, and the walks start to go down.
Pujols might draw fewer walks, but he did everything else better than Votto, save for fielding. And he’s still not worth the contract now…it’s just not very likely Votto will be worth it either.
I completely agree. Votto would be nice for 2 or 3 years but would be a problem contract beyond that and we already have a bad contract as far as years remaining and $ in Tulo, who if not traded is likely to be moved to 1B or DH in 3 years when his range starts to decline.
I agree with prospects being suspect till it’s proven ob the field but I also agree with teams building up farm systems and having alot of guys as depth because half ever actually become what they should or even a contribution to the team but would rather just pay $ and keep the depth or use the depth to upgrade a position that otherwise might not be feesable via free agency for instance the red sox or Toronto rather than trade prospects for votto trade for a guy like wade Davis and sign ee or Bautista maybe they wouldn’t be as good offensively but they’d have great pen with either 8-9 scenario and on top of it there is always that fear warranted or not that the last two years of any 7+ year contract that you’re swallowing the $ so your avoiding that not saying that ee or Bautista wouldn’t do the same but most teams try to avoid the lengthier deal on anyone if it’s possible on get similar production on the front end of the deal (I know neither probably aren’t as good at this stage but offer similar production )
John I love how we’re arguing over basically a fantasy lol!!!
I respectfully disagree. And again, you keep bringing money into it. Like I said, $25 million today is already losing it’s luster, in 3-4 years it will be pocket change.
Pujols had his worst OPS of his career (big time), in his last season with the Cards. The year prior his lowest OBP since his sophomore year. I brought up as well the year before he left St. Louis there was a big argument over how old he actually was. I don’t think that was ever rectified. Somehow the story was dropped. I’m no conspiracy theorist but that’s pretty strange to me. My argument is Pujols may have been 33 or 34 (or older), when he signed with LA. So yes, that was a very bad signing.
Votto led the league in OBP again this year AND was leading in OPS on the day before the last day of the season this year (he finished second). Votto also had a .459 OBP last year and DID NOT finish first because of the year Harper had (any other year he’d easily have finished first). As he’s gotten older, he’s better and better at getting on base each year. Like I mentioned in my previous post, his homers WILL go down. But unlike with Albert, who’s value now completely relies on homers and RBI (because everything else is horrific), Votto still knows the stikezone better than anyone this century OTHER THAN Barry Bonds and does NOT need to hit homers. So his bat speed goes down and he only hits a single to the opposite field? That’s what we want anyways. Very hard to compare anyone to this guy. I know we all look at his runs scored and wonder why he doesn’t have more, I can tell you having Brandon Phillips hitting behind you doesn’t help. Have Josh Donaldson hitting behind him would be a major difference.
This doesn’t include of course the millions and millions of dollars the Jays would make each year on jersey sales of the greatest hitting Canadian player in baseball history.
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The problem with using ops and obp as the main stat or as your main tool is how great will that be once he might actually gets pitched to having a mookie or a donaldson hitting behind him while he still would be very productive won’t get walked nearly as much sure he’ll hit more but he’ll also get out more Homer’s go up walks/times getting on base go down I admit he’s Better in either way u look at it but I don’t believe even the way aav goes up 25 million for a dh which he probably will end up being in 5 years will be any type of bargain
Agree 100%, Nick.
How does a qualifying offer work? Is 25m$ for three yrs a qualifying offer, or is there a standard QA?
And any guesstimates on how many blank-cheque offers will be offered to E.E. when he is a free agent?
As the writeup states, the team has a stalwart rotation,while the holes can be filled in many ways:
the bullpen is porous, and it will be interesting how the team goes about sealing it;
a leadoff bat/OF’er, and a power?1b guy are the most urgent player needs, and my take is that these may be best filled c free agents…. maybe Fowler/ Beltran calibre players?
But tonight is the beginning of maybe the best WS ever, eh?
A QO is set after each season based on the top 125 annual salaries from the previous season. For 2017, it’s $17.2M and is only a one-year offer. If the player refuses and signs elsewhere, the team that loses him gets a draft pick between the first and second rounds of the draft. A team can only extend a QO to a player who was on their 40-man roster at the start of the 2016 season.
Thank you, John Murray.
Anytime 🙂
Hosmer might be a better trade target than Votto. But our farm system is somewhat depleted so he could be a FA target in 2017 and the Jays could get by with Smoak and a platoon mate. Moreland? Not sure which they both hit from.
Carlos Beltran
Carlos Gomez
Matt Holiday
All guys who could come cheap but still bring prodction if u lose bautista. I think resigning Edwin is a must if he’ll take 4 yr 80-100 mil. If someone offers him 120 mil+ let him walk.