The Cardinals are still debating whether to pick up the $12MM club option over southpaw Jaime Garcia, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. St. Louis would need to pay a $500K buyout if it declines.
Garcia, 30, just made thirty starts for only the second time in his career, representing a highly promising return to health for a pitcher who has battled shoulder problems. But his results fell well shy of his established benchmark. Between his first full season in the majors through last season (i.e., 2010-2015), Garcia compiled a 3.25 ERA over 708 1/3 innings.
In his 171 2/3 frames in 2016, Garcia ended up allowing 4.67 earned runs per nine. His peripherals weren’t that far off of his career norms — 7.9 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 were both on the high side of his typical range, while his strong 56.7% groundball rate was nearly an exact match for his lifetime average.
Really, Garcia suffered most from an elevated home run susceptibility. He was touched for dingers on over one of five flyballs put in play against him, with opposing hitters launching 1.36 per nine. Whether he can pare back the long balls may be the biggest question remaining. Ultimately, ERA estimators suggest that his down year occurred at least in part due to some poor fortune (4.49 FIP; 3.77 xFIP; 3.93 SIERA.)
In terms of the underlying physical tools, there are indications that Garcia has continued to adapt with a shoulder that will probably never be fully normal. His release point continues to drift (see here and here), with his breaking balls showing marked changes in behavior as well as some inconsistencies. With those changes, Garcia’s typically double-digit swinging strike rate has resided just below that level (9.2%) for each of the last two years. On the other hand, his average fastball velocity is better than ever.
Garcia acknowledged that some of his struggles may be related to his efforts to stay ahead of the shoulder problems that have plagued him for so long. “I got caught up so much in being healthy and working hard to stay healthy that sometimes mechanics took a hit,” he said. But he says he’s glad to have ended the year on an uptick, proclaiming: “I found it now. … I know the kind of pitcher I am.”
All told, it seems hard to imagine that the Cards will punt Garcia onto an open market that is starved for arms. There’s certainly an argument to be made that it would be unwise to sacrifice the depth after a season in which Lance Lynn, Marco Gonzales, and Michael Wacha were among the club’s hurlers who dealt with varying degrees of injury problems.
If anything, a trade would seem the more likely scenario. According to Goold, St. Louis “floated” Garcia’s name over the summer to assess his value. Whether or not there was ever serious consideration of moving him in 2016, that could become an option this offseason. As Goold explains it, promising the $12MM payday to Garcia “would give Mozeliak control of an asset for 2017 and pitching depth that he could use in deals even into spring training.”
I could see many teams wanting a chance to ‘buy low’ on Garcia, but I’m not sure I’d want to be a GM committing $12 million on him.
It’s a one-year commitment, so it’s not hard to do. No risk beyond the present year. Actually, I think he’s worth a fair bit more than that. Upside is 180 innings of low/mid-3.00 ERA pitching. Downside is still mostly injury risk, b/c the performance was mostly pretty danged useful in 2016.
Thanks for the point of view Jeff. I do understand your point, but I guess it would also have to include your team’s budget and evaluation of other potential options (cost and upside). Perhaps I’m still getting used to some of the ‘value’ of non star pitchers in a depressed talent pool scenario.
Give him his 11.5 million and then gamble with trading him before spring.
In a pitching starved market, some team might see the value and even overpay for a 4 starter innings eater.
Except he’s not an innings eater.
I always wondered what defines an innings eater. Is it 6 innings a game at 30 starts for 180 innings?
Is an innings eater considered a good pitcher or a bad pitcher?
I would argue, because of the lack of clear definition of the term, that Garcia is an innings eater.
I see them gambling on retaining him until the trade market develops in mid-2017. A good April/May could bring a couple decent prospects back to an STL organization that could use a little overhaul.
The organization doesn’t need an overhaul. There’s plenty of young talent and a top 10 farm system.
Last I saw, the Cardinals were at #18 (Bleacher Report, August 4, 2016). Other than Harrison Bader, I am not aware of a lot of impact players in the STL pipeline. They do need a little bit of overhaul, not a complete one, but some ‘retooling’ or whatever the buzz word is. With the free agent class being relatively weak in this upcoming offseason, I could see a few moves being made to improve the team long-term.
The re-tooling started last off-season. The farm system really had a nice year.
Add to that they had a very good draft (including 3 first round picks) and are bringing in a nice haul in the international market.
They are re-tooling, Mozeliak has even admitted that. But if they’re in contention next July, they won’t be selling off pieces. The Cardinals are in as good of position with young players as any team in the league besides the Cubs and Red Sox.
I wouldn’t rely on Bleacher Report’s rankings of the farm system. They definitely aren’t as in-depth as several more baseball-focused sites/organizations. The Cardinals systems has “fallen” in rankings due to the graduation of so many of its top prospects. Right now, Bader is the the biggest name because he’s the closest to being MLB-ready. However, Reyes and Weaver both showed their potential late in the season. Further, Carson Kelly made significant strides at the plate, coupled with the high praise he receives for his glove…he looks like he could definitely be Yadi’s replacement. Additionally, they had a solid draft this year. Several of the more promising prospects are on the younger side (e.g., Sierra and Perez), but could very well be “impact players”…it might just take a couple of years.
What planet have you been on?? You’d better check the minor league team records and individual stats! Not in the top tier of athletes.
He’s worth that on the free agent market. With the lack of pitching available, you would think they could get something decent in a trade. I don’t think they have any interest in him pitching for the Cardinals next season. Will be interesting to see what they do.
At the trade deadline the Cardinals talked to teams about him to see what they could get, I think the pick up the option and then trade him right after the seasons over!
Let’s just say if the Red Sox are seriously considering bringing back Buchholz for $14 mil, Garcia is a slam dunk.
I’d agree with how weak this market is those guys might even warrant a nice return in a trade after having those options picked up
I would lean toward giving the 12 mil for 1 year. Just simply because of the weak FA market. It is not like the Cardinals are a small market team either.
Pick it up and trade him. A lot of teams will listen in on him in the Spring.
Also consider trading Matt Adams, Jhonny Peralta, Rosenthal, and possibly Kolton Wong.
I don’t know why they would trade any of those guys next year.
Adams right now is the only 1B under contract for next year unless Carpenter and Peralta can play 162 games at the corners.
And selling low on Wong and Rosey doesn’t make any sense.
Consider an outfield upgrade, outside of that, there isn’t much to do in the off-season (visit with Moss, if you get him back, then Adams could be expendable).
And that’s assuming anyone even wants Adams
Makes sense to retain him to trade him, they have the depth. Besides, their farm system has been depleted as of late, so getting anything for him helps
There just isn’t room in the rotation next year with Weaver, Reyes, and Lynn joining Leake, Martinez, Wacha, and Wainwright and the other arms on the farm
No way he’s pitching for the Cards next year unless they decide to move one or two of these other arms
There is no bad 1 year contract. We’ve seen how fragile arms can be. So they’d be smart to pick it up. The hope being that he pitches well during st and the cards don’t need him.
That’s true
The only reason they would pick up his option is to trade him, teams will over pay for pitching even though hes junk! Cardinals will let Moss & Holliday walk which is a good idea, then go after an outfielder either Cespedes for LF or Fowler for CF once they both opt out of there deals! Just not Reddick! Cardinals farm system is stacked they are a top 10 due to the young talent!
Cardinals will pick it up to just trade him cause keeping him would be a bad business move! Seeing what the Padres got for crap starters Cardinals could get a few prospects back(dont need to be major league talent either but maybe a bullpen piece even though the pen us mostly set now)! Also Cardinals will be trying to spend money this off season like last(thank god they didnt sign Heyward or Price both overrated)! Look for the Cardinals to make runs at Cespedes or Fowler after they opt out of there deals which is a no brainier! Just dont look at Reddick or Jay!
cardinals will be glad they kept garcia when another arm goes to tommy john. neither cespedes, nor fowler will be persued by st louis. wong and adams will not be traded, peralta will be.
Guarantee they take a run at Fowler and or Cespedes!
Cardinals are bluffing trying to get some team to be idiots. Garcia ended the season in the bullpen he pitched so poorly. His track record is injury and inconsistency. You would have to be drunk to give him 12 million.