With the 2016 regular season now in the books, the preliminary order has been set for the 2017 amateur draft. The order is set by a reversal of the standings, with the league-worst Twins getting the first overall pick. When two or more teams have the same record, the better pick goes to the club who had the worse record in the previous season. For instance, the Reds won 68 games in 2015, the Padres 74 games and the Rays 80 games, which established the order of the second, third and fourth overall selections. Jonathan Mayo of MLBPipeline.com has the breakdown of where all 30 teams will pick in the first round of next June’s draft…
1. Twins (59-103)
2. Reds (68-94)
3. Padres (68-94)
4. Rays (68-94)
5. Braves (68-93)
6. Athletics (69-93)
7. Diamondbacks (69-93)
8. Phillies (71-91)
9. Brewers (73-89)
10. Angels (74-88)
11. Rockies (75-87)
12. White Sox (78-84)
13. Pirates (78-83)
14. Marlins (79-82)
15. Royals (81-81)
16. Astros (84-78)
17. Yankees (84-78)
18. Mariners (86-76)
19. Cardinals (86-76)
20. Tigers (86-75)
21. Giants (87-75)
22. Mets (87-75)
23. Orioles (89-73)
24. Blue Jays (89-73)
25. Dodgers (91-71)
26. Red Sox (93-69)
27. Indians (94-67)
28. Nationals (95-67)
29. Rangers (95-67)
30. Cubs (103-58)
Given the ongoing negotiations between the league and the players’ union about a new collective bargaining agreement, there is a chance the draft’s rules could be altered under a new CBA, whether it relates to draft spending pools, tying free agent compensation to the draft, etc. Since it’s already October, however, it’s probably more likely that the same general framework will be in place for this winter’s transactions market, and any significant changes will apply to the 2017-18 offseason and the subsequent 2018 draft.
Under the current rules regarding free agent compensation, if a free agent rejects his team’s one-year/$16.7MM qualifying offer, that team is entitled to a compensatory pick between the first and second rounds if that player signs elsewhere. The signing team would surrender its first-rounder, or highest remaining pick if it signs multiple QO free agents.
The top ten picks in the draft (held by the Twins, Reds, Padres, Rays, Braves, A’s, D’Backs, Phillies, Brewers and Angels) are protected, so if any of those teams signed a qualifying offer free agent, they would keep that pick and instead surrender their next-highest selection. Owning a protected pick is a silver lining amidst disappointing seasons for these 10 clubs, as they can now still pursue a top free agent while retaining that valuable position at or near the top of the draft. Teams who just missed the protected pick bottom-10 now face a tough decision; the White Sox, for instance, have made a few big free agent signings under GM Rick Hahn, but they’ll have to weigh signing a QO free agent against the value of that No. 12 overall selection.
Does anyone think the mariners would have a chance going after Cespedes, I feel like the 18th pick is ok to lose if you get Cespedes.
I feel like he would put up Trumbo esq numbers in Seattle. I also feel like he wants to play in New York.
Sure, but the Yankees, Cardinals, Mets, Nationals, Giants etc. might feel the same, as well as the Angels who are protected.
Was thinking about NY taking on Braun’s contract. They always have taken on tarnished players in the past and big salaries are not a problem. This one would come with a severe discount also, like Chapman just did. Why not?
Because New York is on his no-trade list.
No way Cardinals go after Cespedes. Not the FO mo at all
With so much money already spent on Cano and Cruz and several other holes to fill I can’t see them spending a huge sum of cash for Cespedes. And keep in mind, he may not even be available on the free agent market.
A special congratulations to the D-Backs who, as only a team as bass-ackwards as they are could, managed to go from the #2 to the #7 pick in the final three games of the season. Tony’s boys are so awful, they can’t even be awful well.
Meanwhile the Reds pulled off a stunner, sliding into #2 to end the season after spending most of the season competing for the #3-6 pick. Braves up for 1 or 2 all season until the last week. Rays pushed themselves out of the #2 pick with a pointless late victory.
But don’t tell that to any of the old school crowd who thinks that there’s no such thing as a “pointless win” and that the draft order doesn’t matter.
It’s “new school” to have pros let up and lose so they can be in a better position to draft a sought-after high schooler or college bat that may or may not help them in 3-6 years, if ever? What happens when they inevitably draft a Mike Kelly? I would love to be in the room to hear you try to convince a free agent to come play for you under that mentality.
How is drafting a Mike Kelly inevitable? What if they end up drafting a Kris Bryant?
That extra win today really doesn’t mean anything for the Rays or the Braves and I don’t think the Reds and Padres are too upset about one more loss today. And I don’t think that, if my team is offering some free agent more money than everyone else, he will take less money to play elsewhere just because we happened to lose the last game of the 2016 season.
The draft is a gamble, sure. But statistically speaking, you are at a disadvantage if you draft lower. If not because the better players are taken before you pick, then because of the lower slot value.
For someone who’s clearly so proud of the success of the Braves’ 2016 draft he sure has no confidence in their ability to make an intelligent #2 overall pick in 2017. That doesn’t make sense to me.
Mike Kelly was drafted in 1991, ancient history. Heck, that pick was before now-retired Turner Field opened. But, I guess if you’re mad about something for 25 years you’re welcome to stick to it…
Because there is no Kris Bryant in the 2017 Draft. Jeren Kendall, JJ Schwarz, Hunter Greene, Alex Faedo, Tanner Houck are NOT Kris Bryant. This is not a draft with a Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant or Strasburg. Don’t let Bryant fool you into thinking that top picks will turn out like him. For every Bryant there’s 10 Tim Beckhams, Mark Appels, Mike Zuninos, Danny Hultzens. Yes, I want a higher draft pick for my team, but what should they do, throw the game? Snitker needs every win to have a shot at coming back to manage this team in 2017. I get everything that is being said about the Braves losing in theory will help the team build with stronger picks, but no one is basing that in reality. There is too much emphasis being put on draft slots and not enough on having the right talent evaluators – something you can control.
If we are naming our favorite mariners, why don’t you add Dustin Ackley and maybe even Alex Jackson.
You are falling into the same trap you are telling me not to fall into. Don’t let Tim Beckham fool you into thinking that all top picks will turn out like him.
I get that Tim Beckham, Mark Appel and whoever else you named happened. But statistically speaking, the higher you draft, the more likely you are to get the next Kris Bryant as opposed to the next Tim Beckham. That statistical advantage (no matter how slight) is definitely worth more than one extra win in a lost season.
If you’re in that position, you wouldn’t be signing top free agents. You’d be getting buy low guys hoping to flip them, so you know, you get guys who may or may not turn out down the road
The best player in baseball was drafted 25th overall in 2009. The team I follow drafted 3rd that year and picked a useless athlete named Donavan Tate and gave him a record bonus. So yeah , the draft can be a real crapshoot unless there’s a Stras or Harper or Bryant, which there are none of this year.
That doesn’t mean the 23 teams that drafted before the Angels couldn’t have taken Trout. Obviously it’s more important to have a good eye for talent but just because the Angels came out on top doesn’t mean they weren’t at a disadvantage.
Fun fact: Kris Bryant wasn’t remotely close to seeming to be the top player in his class at the start of his junior year at USD.
I believe that the Mike Kelly remark was in reference to the gambles of even a “sure thing” as Kelly was supposed to be ….Hell the draft history of My beloved Pirates during their 20 yr losing streak was filled with REAL WINNERS coming high in the draft– John Van Benschotten and Mark Merchant, Kris Benson and Jeff King ( only one to remotely live up to being a #1 overall out of Arkansas ) to name a few so yes top picks are failures but for the most part its a crap shoot even for GOOD scouting departments …For every Kris Bryant you have Todd Van Poppel or Brien Taylor or even a Kerry Wood
Just Another Fan
Don’t forget Oakland, who would have ended up with the #2 pick if they didn’t win the last 2 totally meaningless games of the season vs. Seattle, and even eliminated the M’s from the playoffs in the process. Talk about wins that hurt everyone and get no none anywhere, smh
PSA: Free agents who were traded midseason (Rich Hill, Ivan Nova, Andrew Cashner) are not eligible to receive QO’s and as such, the team that signs them will not have to forfeit a draft pick. I already know someone is going to ignore this and say otherwise on here.
Sucks that the Braves played their way out of the top 2, but on the other hand good for those guys to actually win a few games. Sure those wins “didn’t matter” but far be it from be to tell them to go out there and lose.
This would fall under the category of “Don’t even know how to lose correctly.” Had the worst record for like the first 2/3 of the season and then finally started playing decently once they were already out of the race and lost not only the #1 pick but the #2, 3 and 4 picks.
I look at the Braves winning means the young players are improving, which to me is more important. I like seeing good games from Folty, Wisler, Blair, Dansby, Ender, etc
Yeah, I mostly agree. The higher pick would be nice but the improvement from guys that are already major leaguers is nice too. As a fan I can understand wanting the better draft pick even if it means losing “meaningless” games, but I’m pleased the players themselves are still busting their butts trying to win because that’s where their focus needs to be.
Would one extra loss really change how you view the Braves’ promising young players that much?
No, but what should we do? Tell them to go and lose? Good luck with that.
Let’s say it like this, I WANTED them to lose because I wanted the #2 pick more than I wanted that win. But I don’t want any of the players out on the field thinking like that because they should focus 100% on winning the game in front of them, and I won’t begrudge them for doing that and ruining the draft position that I cared about more than the outcome of game #161. It is not Julio Teheran’s or Ender Inciarte’s or Jed Bradley’s job to base their play on what’s best for the Braves’ 2017 draft, and I think it’s foolish to be upset at them for doing something that is their job (playing as well as they can) even if it’s to the 2017 draft’s detriment.
Eh, #2 pick vs #5 isn’t that big of a deal. They’re going to take a pitcher, probably a high schooler as well. Safe pick, one that will guarantee sign.
Said very well, TDK.
High school pitcher is the complete opposite of safe pick.
The assigned slot value is MUCH better for the #2 pick
Padres set up well
Yes they are indeed. I’ll admit, I was hoping that they would lose today to get as high in the draft as they possibly could go. The last time they had this high of a pick, they selected… Donavan Tate. Let’s hope Preller can make it a good pick this time.
Wonder if the Braves FO kind of wishes they had lost today…from 2nd to 5th
Awful watching the Braves blow their number 1 pick this month and then losing 3 spots final two days. It means much more than most ppl realize. Not just in the players available but in the total spending pool. Huge difference from 2 to 5.
You dont think having their young players improve and play well means anything?
The negatives outweigh the positives at this point. They have all the time in the world to do that next year.
Lose the last game at Turner Field or see a 12-strikeout performance from Teheran knocking Cabrera, Verlander, Upton out of the playoffs opposing Verlander – who will be a Cy Young frontrunner…? Yeah, so many negatives.
ATL FO has proven they can find talent and this draft isn’t deep with that many clear-cut picks. Their post-AS Break surge means that winning is closer than what many thought. 5th pick is still protected and considering how our FO got 3 1st-rd talents in the 1st 3 picks of the 2016 Draft, I don’t think anyone is concerned about dropping to 5th pick at the expense of seeing them win.
Who cares if the Braves win or lose the final game at Turner Field? They’re tearing the place down after only ~19 seasons. The Braves are essentially tied for the second worst record in MLB, but avoid the benefits of that.
Even if the front office got 3 1st round talents in the 2016 draft, that’s hardly an argument that the 2017 draft doesn’t matter to them. Their draft pool shrinks by millions as a result of a worse draft spot, as does their opportunity to make waiver claims or rule 5 picks. They need to keep adding talent.
Worse draft picks for the honor of remaining in a virtual tie for the second worst record in baseball. Don’t make it sound like they missed out for a winning record.
I think the Tigers cared about the Braves winning that final game. Just sayin…
I am not making sound like anything. So the alternative is benching players and losing games? Is that what you’re proposing? You want guys purposely losing or taking stars out to play down and let them lose to get a higher draft pool? You want them to throw the game? I under the implications of having a higher draft pool and draft picks, but no one is basing this in reality. Snitker is managing for his job (in 2017) as possible manager, some guys are playing for their jobs — and you want these guys to lay down? Good luck making that speech in the locker room. This is where there’s a separation between the bulletin boards and the guys that play the games. This thought process isn’t based in reality.
Personally I’m not saying the Braves, and more than the Reds, should’ve thrown the games. Bad luck cost the Reds their final game – not an effort to lose. Luck was on the Braves’ side in their final game, which is good news for one day and bad news for them long term. That win costs them far more than it’s worth.
Meanwhile the Reds had really good luck – they tried to win and ended up losing, while the teams around them in the standings kept winning.
For a 67-93 team one more loss is hardly a surprising stroke of bad luck. I expect lots will go into consideration regarding Snitker’s status, but I doubt winning 67 vs 68 games, or the final game at Turner Field, is a big part of it. I think the Braves are a fairly well run organization, far too well run to replace someone solely on the outcome of the final game of the season.
Most fans and the players will have forgotten about this game within a week. If one extra win when you’re already MILES out of contention makes you feel that much better, idk what to tell you.
Their post-AS Break surge may mean winning is closer than thought before, but that would still be the case even if they had lost today.
As far as picking 5th as opposed to picking 2nd. There’s a chance that you will really want a player and he will get taken 2nd, 3rd or 4th. And even if he is available at #1, it’s not like he wouldn’t have been available if you had been drafting at #2. And if nothing else, the team who picks 2nd gets a much greater slot value than the team that drafts 5th.
It’s not dropping to the 5th pick at the expense of seeing them win. It’s dropping to the 5th pick at the expense of one little meaningless game at the end of the season.
The result of today’s game (or any one game) has no bearing on whether or not Brian Snitker gets the Braves’ managing gig next year.
Anyone trying to tell u that is kidding themselves. This was bad for the Braves organization. Really disappointing last few days
I look at the Braves winning means the young players are improving, which to me is more important. I like seeing good games from Folty, Wisler, Blair, Dansby, Ender, etc
Young players can play well and show improvement with the team winning 66 or 67 games rather than 68. A win on the final game doesn’t carry over to next year. Going forward that final win only puts the organization at a competitive disadvantage. In my opinion that disadvantage is unlikely to be outweighed by the potential morale boost.
Braves won 68 games, the second fewest in baseball. There’s plenty for Braves fans to be optimistic about for the future, including how they played in the second half, but that final win total means NOTHING going forward. Free agents aren’t going to choose a team with 68 but not 66 wins – either way it’s a last place record. As I said, winning 1 too many games only puts them at a competitive disadvantage.
There should be some consideration given to the Atlanta Braves for the game that was canceled. If it had been played and they lost they still would have the 2nd pick !!
Honestly, that’s a really good point. I was wondering that when the game was canceled and not made up.
Is your memory really so addled that the single biggest human news in the sport this year – which is all of a week old – has already escaped you?
The game with the Marlins was not played.
So much hostility on the boards it’s really unnerving. Never forgot, bud.
Clearly, the thing that’s addled in this instance is my reading comprehension.
That said, I’m not hostile toward you, although I think you’re in the wrong on this topic and some others. Lots of people who I know and like in the real world hold opinions I think are preposterous, but I still don’t have any animosity toward them, or you.
False. If the Braves played and lost a 162nd game they’d be 68-94, like the Reds, Padres, and Rays. The Reds had the second worst record in 2015 and the Braves had the 3rd worst. In a tie the Reds would pick ahead of the Braves, but the Braves would pick ahead of the Padres and Rays. Reds and Braves would pick 2nd and 3rd for the second year in the row in that scenario.
A 162nd game would mean picking #3 (with a loss) or #5 (with a win). Since they ended up in #5 they had nothing to lose, but 2 spots to gain. But, as I’ve seen, Braves fans are happier with another win than an improved draft position, so they should be happiest choosing 5th.
I don’t think it’s s bad thing at all, what should they have done? Kept Aybar? Benched Ender, Dansby, Freddie, etc.? Pull Julio for pitching too well? The young guys are playing well, it’s good for them to have confidence going into next year. Besides, I’m sure the Braves will pass on the best player in the draft anyways to spread the money out.
It’s hilarious guys implying losing games for higher picks in baseball, when one pick will take 4-6 years to know whether or not they’ll even succeed. The failure rate in MLB draft picks is so high in comparison to any other sport, the idea to throw games, especially on a franchise trying desperately to have a winning culture, is downright toxic. Teheran had a 12-strikeout performance in front of a sell out crowd opposing the probable AL Cy Young winner (Verlander) and knocking them out of the playoffs, giving Justin Upton more time to spend his money. If you think that means nothing in terms of team building momentum into 2017 as a franchise then we can all go home.
I think it’s generally accepted that the higher you pick the more likely you are to get a successful MLB player. To some extent the concerns you express – high failure rates, long development time – can be mitigated by drafting higher.
The last 5 #2 picks are:
1. 3b Nick Senzel
2. SS Alex Bregman
3. RHP Tyler Kolek
4. 3b Kris Bryant
5. OF Byron Buxton
Bregman debuted in his second professional season. Bryant burst onto the scene in his second full season. Senzel is generally regarded as being on the fast track. Kolek and Buxton were high schoolers, and are still really young.
Instead the Braves now have less say in who they choose, and millions of dollars less to spend on signing guys throughout the draft. They’re more likely to have to sign less projectible, less appealing, less expensive, more likely to fail guys.
The Braves won 68 games, the second lowest total in MLB. Plenty of stuff is looking food for the Braves, but don’t be delusional about the ‘momentum’ of their win-loss record. They won 5 more games than they did in 2015. They have plenty of things going for them, but their ability to win games sure isn’t one of them. One more loss and they’d get several significant benefits all winter and going forward.
No one except you cares about any of this. If the Braves do well next year, they still would have done well even if they lost today.
The 51,000+ fans at the ball park, the entire Braves roster, coaching staff, and FO cared about today’s game, so no there are plenty of people who care about momentum.
I get the argument you and others here are making over the draft pick order but honestly what do you expect? A bunch of professionals to intentionally lose the last game of the season? To play like crap in front of a sellout crowd, lots of VIPs including hall of famers who came to honor the franchise and the last game at Turner field? You guys need a reality check, this isn’t a video game.
As for the draft pick itself, we’ll see in 4-5 years if it turns out the Braves could’ve landed the next Kris Bryant. As of right now there are no real standouts in next years draft.
Well if there are some standouts in next year’s draft, people like RunDMC act like drafting higher will somehow prevent the Braves from taking those standouts when they would have otherwise done so.
Until every player in the game is replaced by robots social and psychological factors will still play a part in development and ongoing performance. It’s just much more difficult to quantify, which is why some of the metric people discount it soo heavily. Smart baseball people don’t completely discount either side, since doing so is foolish at best.
The late season surge from the Braves was heavily influenced by a young core of Braves players that should be in that uniform for years (Freeman, Swanson, Inciarte, etc..), so momentum can definitely be a factor even when hitting the offseason. And it can be even a bigger factor in overall development for the young talent. They go into the offseason with a more positive outlook, rather than feeling like they’ve endured a horrid mess.
If the performance of the team was entirely reliant on players that won’t even be on the Braves next season, or are not really part of their future plans…then you might have something valid to complain about.
“This year was a really important step forward for us as an organization, and our big improvement really goes back to the momentum we gained from the pointless victory we picked up on the final day of last season.” – No player, manager or executive ever.
Four for you disgruntledreader. You go disgruntledreader!
I know I was highlighting the entire late season surge and not just one game, but kicking a fuss over one game is even more absurd. What did you expect them to do? Basically they had no options on the tanking route.
They would’ve had to either tell their players to lose (dumbest idea in history during the social media age) or they would’ve had to bench all good players during a major team and fan event. Neither of those are viable options.
I think you’re missing the point altogether. I think it’s incredibly unwise to tank – if that is what you’re suggesting – for the sake of a higher player because it improves your position to pick a better player(s). IF you’re not tanking, then we’re just talking about moot points here. They won, they’ll pick a few spots lower. Cry me a river. End of story.
One win at the end of the season not does a season make, but the idea of suggesting throwing games in any sport, but especially baseball, is ridiculous. Have you seen some of the top draft picks? It’s not that deep of a draft, especially at the the top of the board. What I keep suggesting is the ATL’s FO is better than most and will find the right players at their spot, just like we got Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, Kyle Muller when Nick Senzel was taken by CIN at #2 (there was talk that Anderson was #1 on their draft boards altogether).
Brian Snitker pregame: “Freeman, we’re going to pull you in the 2nd inning of today’s game. Teheran, even if you have a shutout in the 5th, you’re coming out. Kemp, swing at everything — don’t stop. Ender, let a few drop in front of you. We have a hold on the #2 pick to draft this stud high school prospect that may or may not help us by the time all of you guys are gone. It also sets us up well with allowing a few extra million dollars to spend on this year’s draft picks. This is coming down from the top. Now, let’s go out and not execute and put the cherry on top of this terrible season with a loss so we can enjoy the fruits of losses! Let’s go lose, boys!” – No manager to his team ever.
For the record, I was most certainly not implying that I think any team should have intentionally thrown a game yesterday. Even though I was hoping as a Padres fan that the club would wind up with a higher pick, had Andy Green left Paul Clemens in to hit in the top of the seventh, or gone to Carlos Villanueva instead of Brad Hand in the ninth/tenth, I would have been really annoyed.
Likewise, the Reds lost with their closer – who’s been quite good – on the mound (though, ironically, the Cubs had stopped playing to maximize their chances of winning that game hours earlier). I wish they’d held on for the win, and I’m sure there weren’t a lot of heartbroken Reds front office guys at the end of the day, but there’s no beef with the Reds “tanking.”
My original comment above about the DBacks wasn’t meant to imply they should have intentionally lost games over the weekend. It just noted that what happened to them in the last three days of the season is sort of quintessentially DBacks-ish of them.
“Kemp, swing at everything!” is sort of like waking up early, walking outside and commanding “Sun, come up in the East!”
It doesn’t matter if the draft is or isn’t deep. They are still much better set up with the #2 pick than the #5 pick.
Well, yeah. Intentionally throwing a game results in a player – or manager’s – immediate expulsion from baseball forever. So hopefully we aren’t asking to see that happen.
When is MLB going to catch up to the rest of professional sports and allow draft pick trading? I know the comp picks can be but there really is no reason a team shouldn’t be allowed to trade it’s draft picks.
And another thing I think MLB should try to come into the current age is medical reports and perhaps a combine for prospective picks. I know those are pipe dreams.
Just to clarify, competitive balance picks are tradable. Compensation picks are not.
Why do the Rangers go after the Nationals?
In case of a tie they look to the 2015 records. The Nationals did worse than the Rangers in 2015, so they choose higher. Same reason why the Reds choose higher than the Padres and Rays, despite identical records.
It’s nice to see the Padres getting such a high pick with #3. It’ll be interesting to see what Preller decides to do with it. That being said, he can’t do much worse compared to the last time they had the #3 pick.
I think this “tanking” stuff is nonsense. These are still professional athletes who take the field trying to win, as they should. In a 162-game season, any bad team can beat any good team on any day. This isn’t college football, where you can pretty much pencil in a team’s final record once schedules are released.
Even if the front office stacks the team with bad players, those players aren’t going out there to throw games intentionally. Of course if a player or manager did throw a game on purpose I would hope for quick and brutal justice from the commissioner’s office which would start with a lifetime ban.
Today, on the last day of the season, a pretty good Detroit team got shut out by one of the worst teams in baseball. Players still try to win; Julio Teheran doesn’t – and shouldn’t – care where the Braves pick in the draft.
when was the last time the angels had a protected first round pick? Now If I was them I would go all in for cespedes if he opts out.
Cespedes opting out is a matter of “when,” not “if.”
I think the reds showed the best way to “tank”. They managed to allow young players and pitchers to go about their business and just assembled one of the worst bullpens, ever, to make sure to blow it in the late innings.
Young players develop, team still gets Ls.