If Japanese ace Shohei Otani were a free agent this offseason, “He’d be by far the best pitcher on the market,” one general manager told Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com. Considering the current class lacks front-end starters, that’s not a surprise. However, the 22-year-old right-hander would also draw plenty of interest on a robust market. Otani led the Nippon Ham Fighters to a Japan Series title this past season while recording a 1.86 ERA, 11.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 over 140 innings. The left-handed batter was also outstanding offensively, hitting .322/.416/.588 with 22 home runs in 382 plate appearances, and could become a two-way star in the major leagues eventually. One GM would have no problem allowing Otani to hit on days he doesn’t pitch. “Sign me up. I think every one of the 30 teams would be in the mix,” he said. Otani has only played four years in Japan and won’t be eligible to come to the majors of his own volition until after his ninth season, but the Fighters could post him before then and receive $20MM in return from the team that wins his services. There are multiple GMs who don’t expect that to happen until 2018, though, per Bloom.
More from around baseball:
- The Rays are in position to take advantage of the lack of enticing starters on this year’s market, opines Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The club has trade candidates in a pair of righties – Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi – and southpaw Drew Smyly, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported Friday that the Rays departed this week’s GM meetings with confidence that they’d deal at least one of them. Righty Alex Cobb also holds appeal, writes Topkin, even though he pitched to an 8.59 ERA in 22 innings this year after missing all of 2015 because of Tommy John surgery. “The demand is there,” GM Erik Neander said of his pitchers. “When you have really good players, especially in an area where there is need across the league, I think it certainly plays that way.”
- The Rays’ best starter, Archer, lamented the team’s financial limitations in an interview with MLB Network Radio on Thursday. “I think in order for us to be successful, we’ve got to spend more money,” he said (via Topkin). “You look at the teams that were in contention this year and they were all around the $100-million payroll mark or more. And we’re in the $70 million payroll (range).” Archer continued, “I get it. We might not be capable of spending with the Yankees and Red Sox. But if we keep harping on it then it permeates the minds of the players. And we don’t want the players to think that we’re at any competitive disadvantage.” President of baseball operations Matt Silverman responded to Archer’s comments Friday, telling Topkin, “We share Chris’ passion. There’s no value in harping on the competitive disadvantages in baseball. It’s our reality. And it’s what helps motivate us to find new ways to win.”
- The Pirates held trade talks over the summer involving center fielder Andrew McCutchen, the longtime face of the franchise, and GM Neal Huntington has continued to field inquiries on the 30-year-old. Regarding the interested teams, Huntington told the Associated Press after the GM meetings, “They recognize that we haven’t been averse to moving guys as their contract nears expiration. It’s a part of how we believe we need to do things to continue to be competitive and continue to give ourselves a shot to win.” McCutchen has a maximum of two years left on his contract, including a $14.5MM club option in 2018.
What is Cutch worth?
If you ran your favorite team, what would you realistically offer for him?
Well he played to a 0.7WAR last season, but I’m sure teams see that as just a bad season. He more than likely won’t return to being over a 5.5WAR player again, something he has accomplished every year since 2011, not including 2016. Still, he isn’t attached to a massive contract, just one year left, so I could see a team trading a couple of their top 10 prospects in the hopes he rebounds. Wonder if Dodgers would entertain a deal involving Puig. Surely more pieces besides those two involved however. Just the first team I thought of.
The Dodgers might entertain a deal involving Puig, but I doubt that the Pirates would. One of the reasons they’re looking to trade him is that they have in house OF options to replace him. Puig wouldn’t make much sense for them (and I want to scream every time I see a Mets fan suggest Jay Bruce).
IMO, the one and only way they should trade him is to immediately improve their starting rotation. Prospects should not be their goal here either. Starting pitching should be the goal.
I think the dodgers trade for Braun
That was the word at the deadline, I could see a Puig for Braun trade, no way the Mets get any value for Bruce. Fangraphs has Bruan projected as a 0.7 WAR player next year while Puig and Braun are over 3 WAR
the brewers might be asking for pitching in return for him, and I don’t think the dodgers are going to give up Urias or De Leon for him, Crazy to think that at the deadline they said they were willing to trade Urias for Chris Sale
That might not be the way it works, if they want pitching they might have to look for another trade!
What would it realistically take for the Braves to land Archer? Think either of these packages get it done?
Package A:
Braves get:
Chris Archer
Brett Sullivan
Rays get:
Matt Wisler
Arodys Vizcaino
Sean Newcomb
Joey Wentz
Anfernee Seymour
-or-
Package B:
Braves get:
Chris Archer
Rays get:
Sean Newcomb
Mike Soroka
Aaron Blair
Mallex Smith
Mauricio Cabrera
archer has 140 mil in surplus value.
using prospects only you are looking at albies, allard, newcombe, soroka, Ruiz.
top 20 position prospects are worth roughly 50 mil in surplus, 20-40 pitchers are worth roughly 35 million. 40-100 roughly 15-20 mil.
Interesting, but he is coming off a down year in which he bad mouth his owner, that might hurt his value.
It makes him a slightly lower buy-low candidate, but it also doesn’t mean he can be had for scraps.
fangraphs.com/blogs/updating-prospect-valuations/
here is a chart, adjust for inflation.
There’d need to be at least one top tier A-grade caliber prospect involved. Since Swanson isn’t going anywhere that would mean Albies just to start out with. I don’t see Braves having the proper pieces to wow the Rays. I could easily see Rangers pulling something off involving Profar.
He would take Albies as a start and then start adding. As a Braves fan, think about what it would take to get Tehran and then add to it. That’s the kind of package Archer would take.
As for Profar, I see him more in a deal for Odorizzi or Smyly. I don’t think 3 years of Profar is close to enough to headline an Archer deal.
Profar , Gonzalez and maybe Gallo might get Archer
I would be very disappointed in that return.
yeah profar was always overhyped. Gonzalez certainly isn’t worth much. and Gallo didn’t show enough improvement in k’s to warrant him being a headliner for archer. but I’m in the free joey Gallo camp. let’s just see if he can make a high 30’s k percentage work.
No way Cabrera is being dealt to anyone, and I doubt Mallex Smith either.
I am absolutely baffled by these people’s response’s. Chris Archer would not bring back any of these packages. As for his comparison to Teheran, just THIS offseason, Teheran has more value. Whose a better pitcher in the long run? I’d put my money on Archer. I’ve seen many experts and others say a deal such as this would get it done:
Soroka
Weigel
Peterson
Garcia
Demeritte
For
Longoria
Archer
Or take out Garcia, Demeritte and Longoria
Whether or not you agree with that, please keep your responses civil.
Teheran does not have more value than Archer any off-season. You’d put your money on Archer being better just like every GM. Those proposals aren’t even close.
Chris Archer is a young, controllable ace on a team friendly contract. As someone mentioned above, imagine what it would take to get Tehran (if you were using the Braves farm) and work from there. Any package for Archer is going to need atleast 2 top 10 prospects (I’d imagine at least one top 5 prospect, but with enough other prospects thrown in, that could turn it into just 2 top 10 prospects) plus 2 or 3 top 30 organizational prospects (ranking of the other prospects probably depends on the rankings of the “centerpieces” of the deal).
Archers not an ace
Archer is an ace, he just had a terrbile year. I can honestly see him being traded to the dodgers or pirates.
If the rays are selling him they’re selling his second half which was a good second half. He voiced frustrations about losing as many games and watching pitchers i.e price have as many wins as he had with similar numbers (minus innings) and win as many games as he did.
Acher is an ace, single-season W-L and ERA don’t matter, Archer had 10 games where he struck out between 9-12 hitters, that’s an ace. And any pitcher who has a 3.81 FIP like Archer had in 2016, did not have a “terrible” year. Archer set a high bar, but that’s not bad pitching.
I don’t know who these experts are, but that is no where near enough. Look at recent trades for pitching. Look at what the Indians gave up for 2 1/2 years of Miller at $22.5mm. The Braves equivalent would be Albies, Allard, Akeel Morris and Minter. No one you mentioned is even as good as Allard. Now consider that Archer is under contract for 5 seasons at $39mm with only $19mm guaranteed. I’m honestly not sure the Rays would trade him without Swanson being included, but if they did, it would start with Albies, Newcomb and then add several others in your top 10 prospects. Maybe the guys you heard, plus Albies and Newcomb. That is more like what it will take.
Rays will hard pass on both those deals.
Rays will pull off something for Vogt Doolittle from the A’s.
Quote me on that
The Rays are a small market team that needs to hold onto their young guys to be competitive in the future. They’re not going to trade for Vogt and Doolittle, which would hurt their farm. I could see something for Vogt maybe, but not Doolittle.
Taking pending free agency, age and his 2016 performance into account, the time to trade Cutch is now.
With the 2 pick ups the Braves got this week it shows we are not in a win now mode for this year. So I don’t believe Archer is gonna be tried for. I believe Coppy asked and heard what would be the starting point and he said he will pass.
I think the Braves make a move for Miguel Montero and have him split time with Flowers. Then next offseason make a hard run at LuCroy.
By the deadline Colon will be moved and Newcombe will be brought up and then in Sept I would anticipate Fried being brought up as well.
I see your point steelerbrave, but the two older statesmen were picked up to bridge. Getting someone like Archer would be not for this year, but the controllable years thereafter. Colon and/or Dickey are there to eat innings, mentor the kids, and possibly be flipped if they are doing well.
I see your point as well but I just think that the Braves are in the mode of developing their SP and the cost to acquire Archer would be to high for this point in their rebuild.
On another note anybody see an Austin Romine for Blair deal working ????
Ohtani is Babe Ruth only fitting the Yanks sign him in 18 for 10/260. He is a DH when he doesn’t pitch. You talk about getting your money’s worth, I’m surprised this hasn’t happened yet. Ohtani will could be the guy who forces the NL to have a DH.
What about Cutch to the Cubs for Soler and a couple of class a prospects
The Cubs need to trade Soler to relieve an outfield logjam with him/Zobrist/Heyward/Schwarber/Almora/Szczur/sometimesBryant/sometimesContreras.
Trading him for McCutchen doesn’t relieve the problem. It adds another. It also adds the real possibility of making the OF worse if Cutch doesn’t recover near his prior performance level.
the cubs only problem right now is a closer, they should go out and sign melancon or jansen. Then next offseason or at this years trade deadline, figure out if it’s worth giving arrieta an extension or trading prospects to replace him
A) pirates will never trade cutch to the cubs, too much fan back lash because they will see him a lot.
B) pirates will not take soler or class a prospects. Pirates need pitching, not outfield. It’s the whole reason why cutch is on the block, they have meadows, bell, and other capable players.
Anybody see Soler to the White Sox for Robertson working ???? I think the White a Sox are ready to blow the whole thing up and get a ton of prospects for their guys that have not been able to get it done together. I feel with the players they got and would be able to move I think a rebuild would come extremely fast.
I could if they weren’t both in Chicago and the ws included $. They may try to trade soler for someone like Davis more. Robertson I look @ his contract as a negative he passed through waivers freely.
that could work but didn’t robertson get surgery in the offseason? I would like to see the cubs go after Melancon. I think if they give a closer like him a contract for atleast 4 or 5 years, the cubs do not need to add another thing. Then next season they can worry about Arrieta
They won’t give melancon anything past 3 years. They won’t even go after him, honestly.
So do they make a trade for another closer, Or sign Papelbon who is still out on the market. Because I think Rondon is ok stepping in for the 8th inning
Closer is a need for them, but I don’t really see it as a big enough need to overspend on a closer. They have Rondon and Edwards, they’re better off signing someone cheaper to see if he works out or bringing in a couple of ex-closer arms to see what they can do.
As an angels fan, I wonder if they put street or bedrosian out on the market and the cubs could be a buyer
No contending team wants Papelpon,, he is a cancer!
Maybe the Pirates could flip McCutchen for prospects and using those added prospect in a trade for Archer. Then, they could hold a rotation of Cole, Taillon, Archer, Glasnow and one of Kuhl/Kingham/Veteran.
Archer would require the pirates to trade Taillon or Glasnow plus Kingham or Kuhl
Archer is an ace coming off a season where he lost 19 games. I remember Roger Craig what pitching for the Mets and said, You have to be a good pitcher to lose 20 games. Fangraphes has Archer as a 4.1 WAR next year and in the top 20 as a starter. He will require some good prospects to get him. Ordorizzi and Smily are 2WAR players and would easier to move.
Are teams really going to throw 300 million to Otani? While in theory it sounds amazing to have “the next Babe Ruth”, this isn’t 1920 and he hasn’t even thrown a major league inning. Assuming Otani is the real deal as a pitcher, are you not risking injury from him playing constantly? I’m not saying it isn’t possible and that a player couldn’t handle being a two-way player, but the game is much more delicate than it once was.
I mean, it would seem most sensible for an NL team to sign him given the lack of DH. He could then garner a start in left field per week on top of the occasional pinch-hitting. I feel that an AL team would have to have a pretty awful group of outfielders or DH to warrant starting Otani over them on top of being their expected ace. As we’ve seen many times before, especially with hitters, hitting in Japan or Korea doesn’t mean it translates over to MLB. Though I am less concerned with his pitching, it sounds like a big mistake to overpay. Dodgers did it the smart way with Maeda, in my opinion, as they gave modest guaranteed money and loaded the contract with incentives (which I would be fine with). But that’s also what separates me from someone like Brian Cashman, who signed Tanaka or even the Red Sox with an already MLB star, David Price. If I’m GM, which I’m obviously not, if he wants a long-term deal, I offer 7/105 or 10/150 loaded with incentives per year that can easily double his yearly salary. You don’t have to agree with me, as a team will likely give him the gold, but what does everyone else think?
Sure, every team would share the sentiment to keep guaranteed costs down as much as possible because it implies success for paying more. However, you will have the cubs presumably coming off another winning season with the potential loss of Arrieta, the Yankees with a bunch of money off the books, The pitching needy red sox, the budgetless dodgers, the phillies with no money on the books, all vying for him. Add in the Rangers, Giants, Nats, and lord knows who else entering the bidding. That alone is a third of the league throwing money at the kid and bidding will get out of hand quickly. If you could land Otani at 8/200 with incentives, you would be lucky
Well, how do you presume he will be utilized?