Free-agent righty Greg Holland is arguably the highest-upside reliever left on the open market, and Jon Heyman of Fan Rag provides some notable updates on his situation. The 31-year-old is in a somewhat unusual spot as a free agent, in that he brings a sparkling track record but is also seeking to return from a long layoff due to Tommy John surgery.
Given his health situation and also the evident interest around the league, Holland seeks a two-year deal that would allow him to opt out after the first season, according to Heyman. That’s the same structure that Brian Wilson landed with the Dodgers before the 2014 season, though he had made it back to the hill late in the prior campaign.
In Holland’s case, there’s perhaps greater uncertainty, but also greater upside. He took a step back in his most recent action, in 2015, but that may well have been due to the elbow issues that led to his surgery. Over the prior four campaigns, Holland was one of the game’s very best relievers, as he compiled 256 1/3 innings of 1.86 ERA pitching with 12.6 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9.
There’s interest in Holland’s proposed two-year arrangement, per the report. Among the teams still pursuing him are the Dodgers, Nationals, Rockies, Brewers, Reds, and Rays. While the Cubs showed prior interest, it’s not clear whether they are still in. And the Royals have also indicated a desire to bring back their former closer, though it seems that the team’s payroll situation may not allow for a competitive bid.
That group of organizations would presumably offer Holland a variety of possible roles. The Nationals, Rockies, Brewers, Reds, and Royals (if they’re involved) could all promise him first dibs on closing roles, while the Dodgers and perhaps the Cubs are more likely to view the veteran as a setup man. Tampa Bay, perhaps, might be most interested in the event that it strikes a deal for incumbent closer Alex Colome. Whether and to what extent the chance to take hold of the ninth is an important factor in Holland’s decisionmaking is not immediately clear.
Great idea everyone! Give a guy a 2 year contract even though he hasn’t thrown a major league pitch in over a year. Then he also wants an opt-out in case he somehow succeeds. This guy is crazy. He should sign a one year deal if he really believes he can be a good reliever again. Probably a 2 year 10 mil and incentives for him. Don’t know if he can get an opt out. I mean 10 mil in total not per year.
How In the world does holland have all the leverage I don’t understand
I guess there are still a lot of teams hoping he recaptures his past glory. 2/20 with an optout is just nuts.
where are you getting 2/20 from?
The Sox could let Robertson be setup and Holland close. If he still can
Doesn’t Holland have Boras for a agent? Contracts like the one Holland is asking for is the reason Ned Coletti is a former GM. The 2year deal to Wilson was the last straw. Why would a team take ALL the risks? Doesn’t make sense.
Yeah but Brian Wilson got that contract because when he returned in last month of season prior to that contract he was damn awesome. Mid 90s fastball. Good control. Dude was nails. Until he signed that contract. Then he sat in upper 80s and was a douche bag. So he kind of earned it. Kind of?
Never evaluate players for what they do in the month of September. Talent level goes down during that month due to roster expansion.
Brian Wilson wasn’t really all that good. The fact that his beard got more commercial time then him makes him a giant dbag.
If teams are dumb enough to offer it good for him in taking it.
It’s nice to want things.
Give him 2/$10mil with it distributed $3/$7 with a mutual option for the second year. If he’s not on a contender but performs well, flip him at the line for whatever prospect you can get since you know he’ll decline his portion of the MO.
This is correct. He gets $10 guaranteed even if he never pitches again. If he is great again, the $3 keeps the lights on at the Holland household and then he gets a lot more as a free agent the next year. The team takes a gamble but it’s not too much money if he’s a bust, but an incredible bargain if he isn’t.
But how is the $10 million guaranteed if the second year is a mutual option?
It wouldn’t unless it was a $7 million buy out
I was thinking the same thing. I’d like to see the White Sox (bias) take a chance on him for this reason. In no way is he apart of the long-term goal, but if he does bounce back, either this year or next, the Sox can flip him to gain more prospects to keep building their farm and future for when they are ready in 3-4 years to contend again. If he doesn’t, then it is still only 2 years and he can serve as a bullpen piece to help try and keep the ship afloat (i.e. not being the worst team in the league and losing 100+ games).
You already saved 2.5 mil on matt albers RP contract so I like the idea of Wsox signing him to flip him . What it would take $ wise would factor into the value of signing to flip. Sounds like Boras squeezn the nickel till the buffalo cries. Boras most be going crazy how owners aren’t throwing dough around like it’s Monopoly money . Big spenders like yanks angels rangers cub kinda quiet in FA
That is definitely more team-friendly, though mutual options are rarely exercised because either the player will decline to go find a better deal or the team cut the player loose because they aren’t worth the option amount.
Given that 4-5 (more?) teams are in the running, he’ll either get a 1 year higher AAV contract or two year for a lower AAV. I doubt he’d get a player option unless he came in a couple/few million lower on the first year.
Upside is huge for him but I don’t think he will be anywhere near what he was, at least not right off the bat. If a team has patience and some money just sitting around to waste, it could pay off for them.
I agree but what contender is going to want to wait around while he gets his fastball back? Didn’t the reports say when he pitched for scouts a couple of months ago his fastball was sitting at 92 when he used to hit 98 in his prime. Best bet is for a rebuilding team to take a chance on him.
He makes a lot of sense for the White Sox.
Yeah I seek a date with Jessica Biel it’s not happening
And I seek to conquer the seven kingdoms with 3 dragons.
Spring is coming!
Reds still in after signing Storen?
Personally I still expect the Reds to sign another veteran reliever to a MLB contract. Maybe Nefatli Feliz, maybe Cincinnati native Joe Smith. To me it’s more a question of ‘who’ than ‘if’. They still have one wide open bullpen spot.
As far as Holland, under Jocketty the Reds tried to avoid risk, and Holland is definitely risky, if they do sign him it’d be a big change, a big gamble, by Williams, by a team that prefers to play it safe.
Personally I think Drew Storen is currently the likely guy to get save situations for the Reds, but it’s also not like he’s so great that he’s grabbed that opportunity from challengers. Holland or Feliz, if they signed, would probably pass him on the depth chart. Iglesias and Lorenzen are better than Storen, but may be used less often for multiple innings, rather than in a traditional 9th inning role like Chapman always was. I think Storen’s signing makes the Reds less appealing for other free agents with aspirations of closing, though. At least there’s serious competition from a former MLB closer that the Reds didn’t have at the end of the season.
I kind of assumed Williams had moved on because of the asking price on Holland. Williams interview was interesting. 2m for Storen gets it done. ANYTHING that might help that historic pen of ’16 would be solid. These things though are backseat to player development…hopefully be competitive while Votto still matters. Marty Brennaman gets all grumpy old neighbor…but i dont disagree on contracts with him always.
The Reds are bargain hunting, rather than aggressively pursuing free agents. When you’re bargain hunting I don’t think you really “move on”, you make your offer and hope the player finds it to be acceptable once other options dry up. When bargain hunting you don’t close doors, you keep the door open and see who walks through.
The historically bad bullpen in the first half of 2016 was already strengthened significantly by the return of Iglesias and Lorenzen for these second half.
Another free agent option I still like is Joe Smith, a veteran and Batavia/Cincinnati native. He’s unremarkable, but very solid. He definitely lacks Holland’s upside, but he’s nearly risk-free, and a very safe choice to reinforce the Reds bullpen. If you sign Holland to a 2 year deal you might win big, but you might also lose that gamble, if he has trouble returning. Joe Smith is the more typical kinda guy targeted by a risk-adverse Reds front office.
Like Williams said…the players without much risk arent getting to them at this point. Storen has a good track record…makes for a worthy shot by the Reds. I just dont think this 2/20 Holland deal is happening. Cost mitigates value on that. I dont like him at 1/10 in Cincinnati. If the reliever market is driving up even guys like Holland…let them float by. Storen is essentially a non story on a team that isnt going to contend…if he rebounds maybe they can flip him for a prospect.
Isn’t Storen a risk after last year? He’s been ineffective for a year and a half now
Storen is definitely a gamble, but he got a small (~$2.5m, I believe?) guaranteed contract. I suspect Holland is looking more in the area of a $8-10m 2 year guarantee… as they said with an opt-out, which he’d exercise if he does okay…. leaving a team on the hook if he bombs, and only letting them off if he does well.
Storen pitched pretty well in Seattle to end the year, and enters the season in the mix for the Reds’ open closer role. It’s easy to imagine Storen pitching well enough to grab the closer role, and as a former MLB closer he’s a serious candidate like they didn’t have before… and I suspect a free agent who wants saves would notice that. Holland would be betting both on himself, against Storen, and for the Reds to want Iglesias and Lorenzen in alternate roles. That’s kinda a bunch of bets….
I really like the prospects of Storen, especially in Cincinnati since he could contend for the closer role. If a team would just give him the job like Washington did during the first half of 2015… Otherwise, I don’t think the skills have eroded.
Somebody will give him the question is how much? He might be better off on a 1 year deal with high incentives if he’s that confident in his health. I.e 1 for 3 million guaranteed with incentives on top of that.
Two year deal with an opt-out is essentially a 1 year deal with more money guaranteed as an incentive. Only if things go badly for him and his contractual expectations decrease would he stay for the second year. Extra risk for the team, nut a fall-back guarantee for him if things don’t go as well as he hopes.
Has to be a mutual option deal…this only increases financial risk for a team. On the other hand…if he’s back doing well he can be flipped at the deadline with an added seasons worth of control. Smart to open up the market on this structure. I’d have to say the Dodgers seem logical….Rockies….even Mariners.
Mutual options are so pointless. If he does well, the team can pick up their end and he can decline and is a free agent, If he does bad and he picks up his option but the team elects not to, he’s a free agent. You never really see both teams pick up their end.
Mutual options sometimes have incentives built in where if he gets X amount of innings pitched than the team option kicks in but he could still decline it, you’re still right though about plain mutual options
Yeah that scenario you described is fine but yeah if they are plain, they seem pointless.
The mutual options are just a formality to get the last portion of guarantees in alot of cases in the form of a buyout. Player likes it they get more guaranteed $ team likes it as it helps payroll structure.
There would just need to be a clause to ensure a team exercising the option could actually utilize it. Right now…he’s asking for everything…he’s basically asking for a one year deal if healthy and for a team to guarantee a paycheck if he crashes.
I kind of expected him to only sign for a year to rebuild value honestly.
If he’s wanting a team to take a chance on a potentially sunk cost option year…that year would have to come at value to the team. Lets say he isn’t back..or is hurt….they could be paying 10m for a guy not even on the roster. Brian Wilson all over. This is posturing to attempt to get on a larger market competitor right now. No way a rebuilding team takes the chance they burn atleast 10m on him in 2018.
Are there really any teams that he wouldn’t be a good option for on a smart deal? Contenders are already contenders attempting to further bolster a bullpen. Rebuilding teams can attempt to flip him to a contender if he succeeds.
There’s not much downside to signing this guy. The only team that really comes to mind that would not is the Rays because of their annual tight payroll.
That depends, on the dollar amount, obviously, but even more on whether the signing team is counting on him in the closer role. The other factor is he takes up a valuable roster spot, which can be a real dilemma if it looks like he needs time to regain his form. Brian Wilson is a good comparable. The Dodgers stuck with him for a lot longer than they might otherwise, keeping him on the roster until their only option was to pay him to go away.
I do think the Nats need to get Holland and give him a incentive laden contract.
So… 2 years/20 dollars with an opt out? Fine with me.
Are you Scott Boras?
he said 20 dollars
I’m heading to the atm….I can go 5/$100 on Holland to mow my grass…I’m cool doing it,.but could use some relief about Memorial Day when its 95 out.
I can see you now tapping the right arm to call in Holland from the bullpen to take over the mower for you lol
No way…Holland starts that inning…Ill watch out the window. Lol
And now i understand why he’s still a free agent
If they want that kind of change then Boras needs to allow another showcase. He was 92 in November. This could turn into a 20m one year deal for a team worst case scenario. Im sure a rebuilding team will want in on that. He’s trying to pry off a team like the Dodgers. Where are the Angels…this sounds like them.
What he’s asking for is something a desperate GM on the hot seat would jump on. Which is why I’m glad baseball doesn’t impose the win right now OR ELSE culture as much as other sports.
This may sound far fetched but what about a 3 year deal
1st year: $5million
If he hit certain numbers to where the team feels he is back then team picks up
2nd and 3rd year $15 million each ($30 million total) or if he doesn’t reach teams set numbers
2nd year player option $7million no 3rd year
So basically if he pitches like himself again he gets a 2,3 at 15 mil if not the teams insurance is that he doesn’t get 2,3 year and the 2nd is only 7mil that way the team doesn’t get burned
Good 3yrs $35 million
Bad 2yrs 10 million
If he pitches well 3/35 is a fair contract given today’s market
If he pitches bad the team doesn’t get burned and he get $10 million guaranteed to have some financial security
I think he wants to gamble on himself and play out this season…THEN hit that multi year deal. A long term deal now might not serve him best at this point.
yup this seems correct. But then he also wants the security of a guaranteed second year in case he sucks and can’t test the market. It makes no sense for the teams unless he’s willing to take something like 10 guaranteed over the 2 years
This all comes down into structuring the contract….incentives. I just would want zero part of issuing Holland a 10m insurance policy for 2018. The buyout would have to be so low that he’d be better signing a lower value multi year deal elsewhere. We’re seing guys like Chris Carter hung up because he might be 9m on one year. Storen isnt Holland at peak form…but he got 2-2.5 from the Reds. Holland isn’t 4 times his value even on a single season deal.
But do you think that even if he does well he’ll get more than 2 at $15 each on open market, maybe he get 3 at $15. He could say hey I can make 35 mil and I’ll still be in line for another contract after the 3 years, and if he sucks he gets the 10 mil guarantee
I just dont think he’s going to be inclined to play against the inflationary nature of the market….and I think he’s maneuvering to get interest from a contender. I think boras is trying to get the big boys to bite…and if that doesn’t work…he lowers to bring more in and that pressures everyone. He’d help his client by allowing another showcase if he’s back. Teams are gambling on that 92 mph he flashed in November.
Totally agree but teams and holland/boras know that a lot of time coming back from Tj it takes a full season to get back to form/velocity build up/ command/ feel for his pitches. If he bets on himself, the first year back from Tj may not be the best year to do that, but as you mentioned the market is just getting crazy so maybe it’s the right thing to do. Go big or risk making less money
Ah, Boras.
Greg Holland doesn’t get rave reviews on his elbow
Damn strostro! Back at it again with the rave reviews!
I’d love to see the Mets take a shot at him. They have a bunch of young guys who could take the next step, but it’d be nice to have an upside veteran in there too. They’ll probably cheap out like they normally do, but a guy can hope.
I actually can see a two-year deal that is fair to both sides. Give him a reasonable guarantee for year #1.. I don’t know what that is; but perhaps it is in the $5-8m range. Then provide a second year guaranteed at a much lower level (perhaps in the $2m range); but also include the opt-out. Both sides hope that he performs at a high level and is able to take advantage of the opt-out. If he under performs or is hurt, the team is on the hook for a small price. The cost of doing business. Everyone takes risks. Teams like the LAD, Cubs, etc. can/should take advantage of this opportunity.
Well, based on what he’s made previously, I’d guess a 2 year deal 5mil/8.5mil~13.5 total would be sufficient. Beyond that, is too much risk to guarantee on 2nd year.
He isn’t like most TJs where he’s coming back during a season. I get his showcase he was behind on velocity but talking near 6months before Opening day to improve on what he showcased. So build up strength increase the MPH on that radar gun and return to form.
You’d wonder what it’d take for a 1 year deal on a contending team? 1/9million? 8million more likely? While he’s giving up the higher guaranteed he gets more this year and FA dollars next. Of course if he was a 4+ERA bullpen guy, soft tossing to his standards that FA money drops below 7million a year. Probably in to Fernando Rodney type money being in his 30s. which maxxed at 7million a year.
I was thinking 7m…3m in prime performance incentives. If he’s basically KC Holland…he earns it. Im just not sure about insuring his 2018 season if he has a player option.
Angels could use Holland as a creative way to help jump their organization. Spend some on him…deal him..build some prospect depth. In a way…take the same route as a small market team…but the larger market allows a few larger chances. Draft…stock…
I’d love to see the Dodgers go after him along with Feliz and Romo…we need all the seasoned vets we can get to hold down our bullpen because if I have to see another meltdown like Blanton’s playoff meltdown I am going to lose my mind
Wasnt Blanton the definition of seasoned vet though? Romo will probably keep the ball on the ground. Rockies should be in on him.
Ok a seasoned vet within a certain weight range and closing experience…no more fat seasoned vets like Broxton or Blanton serving up taters in the playoffs
That’s an awesome breakdown. Yeah…maybe not the all youcaneat class. Im sure Joba Chamberlain is out there someplace thinking there’s a golden opportunity to create a three peat
Haha Joba…so much potential
Joba seemed to cap his abilities with his own personal decisions.
“Last Game: September 18, 2015”.
Yes please let me tie up my money for the next two years. Best case scenario you do super good this year (after your injury) and I have you the following season too. Oh, you want an opt out clause for the second season after I took a chance on you. No thanks!