Brandon Moss lingers on the free agent market despite a relatively successful season with the Cardinals in 2016. According to ESPN’s David Schoenfield, that’s due not only to the logjam of 1B/OF sluggers still available via free agency, but to the fact that teams would increasingly prefer to find the next Brandon Moss than to sign the existing one at something close to market value. Moss’ own history is a data point in favor of this approach — he struggled for several years after his first taste of the big leagues before performing well as a cheap acquisition for the Athletics, giving the A’s much better value than they likely would have gotten with a big-name signing. Also, in the past several years the game has gotten younger as players have begun their decline phases at earlier ages, meaning that players at Moss’ current age (33) are less likely to be meaningful contributors. Here’s more from the National League.
- Cubs ace Jake Arrieta doesn’t sound optimistic about his chances of receiving an extension in his last year before free agency eligibility, but his team still says it’s willing to try to negotiate one, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. “Years and dollars are always complicated, but I’m sure we’ll take a stab at it,” president of baseball operations Theo Epstein told fans today. Arrieta and the Cubs avoided arbitration by agreeing to terms on a one-year, $15.6375MM deal on Friday.
- The Rockies have been speculatively connected to various catchers this offseason (including, for example, Matt Wieters). But the team is comfortable with its young duo of Tony Wolters and Tom Murphy, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes. “We are certainly monitoring the catching market, but we are extremely high and positive on the group that we have and we feel like there is a good, young core there,” says GM Jeff Bridich. Wolters entered the season with no big-league experience and a limited minor-league track record behind the plate, although he hit a reasonable .259/.327/.395 and received good marks for his framing. Murphy has played sparingly in the big leagues, but he batted .327/.361/.647 with 19 homers in 322 plate appearances in the admittedly hitter-friendly context of Triple-A Albuquerque last year.
we’ll take a stab at it, haha
Haha ya, he’s gone.
here you go jake, 4/80.
Ok, gl in free agency!
I think Theo might go 5yr 130 at the most., but since Jake has a very greedy agent and is not willing to give a team discount he will probably get a 6yr 162 and walk. We will see how well he does this year.
Theo is not going 5 130!!
Theo will be fine after this next season Hoyer will step out on his own .the year after 2019 Jason will get a offer he can’t refuse that already got great kids on that team .He will look like a genius. All 3will be great GM’s
The media needs to stop with this Weiters to Colorado talk. Wolters and Murphy are just as talented, both are younger and cheaper and are part of the core going forward. Makes no sense to spend on a catcher.
Agreed. We need a legit veteran for the Rotation.( No Kyle Kendrick or Jamie Moyer please ). Only have one lefty, Quintana would be perfect.
How’s about Sonny Gray? Im not sure I like Quintana at Coors….Id want a solid K rate…Chris Archer maybe…but yeah…front end guy. Dont need a catcher at this point.
Red Line that is fine too! I believe Quintana would be good for us tho. We have to be logical and sensical, current rotation will not go far in the playoffs.
I would just prefer either a high ground ball rate or 10/9 k rate to atleast ease keeping the ball out of play. Thing with Quintana is he’s being shopped and there’s competition. I’d try and sign someone like Chris Carter for 1B…free Desmond to go to the OF or middle infield….basically to cover where the hole is from a trade.
I dont have doubt the Rockies can swing a decent deal….especially if they include Rodgers. He’s a Top 10 prospect legitimately. They just have to get this arm via trade because they wont sign a frontline starter on the free agent market.
I suspicion they might be holding up on a 1B waiting to see if an extention on CarGo happens. In that scenario he would eventually be moved to 1B. That’s why Trumbo wouldnt make a great deal of sense….but I dont see why they can’t get a Carter on a year deal….even Bautista for 1B….they blew the #11 pick for Desmond. Who knows…..their needs seem obvious
If archer has another bad year look for him to go to ThePirates or Cubs or White Sox’s
Moss to the A’s makes sense. Beane always going discount route
I won’t miss Moss on the Cards
Moss had very poor timing the last month of the season to struggle at the dish when the Cardinals needed him most. Yes he hit a lot of home runs but several of them were Solo shots. I think we all got frustrated with him striking out as much as he did with runners in scoring position. Him and Matt Adams both stood there and watched strike 3 countless times. I have played baseball all of my young life and ever since Little League you were told with two strikes, anything close you need to be swinging
If it weren’t for Moss’ 1st half of the season, there’s likely never a time “the Cards needed him most”
Moss played in Oakland 2012-14 and knows the BS that goes with a team where the GM is the star. If he has any options at all, he’d go everywhere else before coming back. Unless he loves Vogt more than a shot at playing time and/or winning.
5/150 for arrieta. If he wants 7 years that would be tough. If Cubs realize he is walking need to trade for young controllable starter(s). 2-0 both road wins in World Series is hard to let go
a 2-0 sample size in a 7 game series really shouldn’t go into the consideration of dropping 150 million dollars on a 31 year old pitcher.
5/150 wouldn’t be terrible, but I don’t think I’d even want him at that. He really tailed off at the end of last season and lost his slider and command. And he’s gonna be 31 when that contract starts. I think it may be prudent to just wait and see what he does this year and evaluate after that. You may end up paying more if you want him in free agency, but I think having another year of data to see which pitcher he really is, is very valuable with that kind of contract.
I agree now you wait and see but he is a top 10 pitcher. Cubs prospects are hitters not pitchers so if he walks, lackey retires need to replace with free agency or trade. His sample size in World Series is small but he does have one.
He was not a top 10 last year by fwar or bwar and after what I saw the second half with his command/slider I’m not buying him as one next year either atm. If he can figure that out even somewhat he can be, but I am down on him right now.
1st in baa 5th in wins 13th era 10th whip 1st in no hitters. I agree he lost control but when he throws strikes he is the best .
Yeah, but even if he recaptures that command that gave him such a dominant second half of 2015, he’s not going to settle for 5/150, but rather try to break Greinke’s AAV with a few million after that. Given the amount of money Theo needs to save for the Bryzzo extensions, I think it’s highly unlikely that they sign him. Nor do I really want him, but that’s just a personal thing.
5 years would be as long as I would want to go. 7 years yikes. I assumed they let Fowler walk to save $ for arrieta. Fowler hammel Edwin jackson $ off books . OtAni as several have mentioned would be nice
If you listen to Arrieta talk, he sounds like Cliff Lee in the sense that he expects great things of himself and places more pressure on himself than anyone else could. Can’t coach that motivation. There is, however, a reasonable and growing thought that any pitcher signed for more than 3 years will spend one of those seasons on the shelf. While I love how Arrieta has blossomed, there’s no chance I’m paying another 30+ starter for more than 3 years and maybe 75 million out of gratitude for what he’s done.
Cubs can afford to let him walk. Epsteins flaw in Boston was that those great teams started to stagnate on some increasing payrolls.
Why are players entering their decline stages at an earlier age? Is this due to the previous generation using peds to lengthen their career? I would think that if ANYTHING advances in sports medicine and nutrition would keep players contributing longer.
Off the top of my head I can come up this two variables.
2. Speed of game and talent has increased to the point where a diminished body can’t sustain success.
Not really a way to prove it, but yes, that seems like the most likely reason why players are declining sooner. Makes you kinda wonder how prevalent peds were
I’m going to say this…and someone can hanmer me or insult or whatever…but I was involved with two different organizations in a non-playing personnel capacity. In 1996 I was aware of ped use, and I’d place the % of that organizations players using peds at 30-40%. That includes the minor league system. Unless this organization ran to an extreme…I think its fair to say baseball probably fell within that range as a whole.
Like I said…..someone can insult me….but I wont reveal my role, the first wasn’t a majorly integral one, which makes my knowledge all the more surprising…I have no idea what higher ups knew actually. My affiliation with the second team was in a different capacity and covered about a decade ending a few years ago. That was basically post-era…and my role did not involve involve very much direct player contact.
Just trying to put my two cents in. I liked most of the people in the game, and I still have contact with the second organization. Some great, and reasonably unsuspected players used peds. It was part of the game at that point….it was talked about in factual terms.
That doesn’t surprise me with regard to unsuspected people. 30-40% does kind of surprise me though, I figured it’d be higher.
When you say ped use, do you mean steroids? Or just anything that would currently all under the ped ban?
very interesting from a guy that knows what he’s talking about. thanks for sharing red line
It was more steroids…deca…stuff like that at that point, but then again…there was talk using actual pharceutical names, some of which could have been hgh…Im not knowledgable. It turned my stomach. Its tough to see behind the circus curtain. Quite honestly, I walked away after awhile. Not many people in the game make real money, and I was getting married and my wife was finishing her graduate degree.
I had quite a few people I knew in another organization, and I went there. Baseball is a tough life for what my end was. My wife is a financial professional, and we started a family. Id get called on “special assignments”…I know that sounds more important than Id mean it…but I dont know a better term. In the runnup to the deadline if I was needed as a second set of eyes in professional scouting they’d call. I covered some minor league games. If there was a potential trade….Id go out and look at some lower level clubs…some of it was just due dilligence, but I’d usually ggt called because of something in particular. Sometimes Id be there with a scout from the front office the gm had sent out….their “special assistant” what have you. Was good baseball talk…and I ran across some interesting people. Most fans don’t realize how many trade scenarios float around during the summer. This was the 2nd organization and I still have ties with them…..I just dont have interest in full time work. I’ve moved as well, but I imagine if something were brewing they’d send me out. It really kind of is, “hey, redline is close….see if he can get there with Steve” or whatever.
As far as the peds….the culture doesn’t exist atleast on the surface now. Its hard to really have secrets in the game. The scouts know eachother….people move aroubd the game.
I do NOT have DIRECT proof that a certain future hall of famer used steroids…but I did hear internal conversation between staff of the first organization about what he was on and that he had changed substances. Bud Selig claiming ignorance is ridiculous. Bare in mind I didnt dislike these people…its hard looking back from where we are now…but it was just the culture. You’re talking highly competitive people. Being in the game you lose your illusions quickly. There are some awesome people though…and some organizations have better cultures than others…like any business.
Thank you. Honesty is always appreciated. Not surprising at all to hear/see those statements. I remember going to pirates games in september of 1998 just to see the cards and cubs because it was dirt cheap for my dad to to get pirate tickets for the whole family of five in late september in the late 1990’s, but mainly because during those series’ it was possible to see sosa or mcgwire break maris’ record. Even as a 13 year old it was surreal to me that not one, but two, people were going to break a record that stood for 35+ years with another three weeks left in the season.
Entirely unrelated but as a diehard, lifelong pirates fan, my favorite games to go see as a kid were cardinals games because ozzie smith was sincerely a blessing to the baseball world.
I got through Three Rivers in both 1993 and 1994…Pittsburgh is a great baseball town.
I was in Kauffman Stadium the day McGwire hit his final two homers of 1998 down the road in STL..it was surreal that someone had hit 70. But fairly ordinary guys were hitting 30 then.
Maintaining a peak as a hitter is easier than maintaining a peak as a pitcher. Pitchers throw harder now than ever before and that leads to shorter careers.
As far as PEDs go, it’s been 12 years of testing. Let’s stop talking about it unless people test positive.
My only basis for mentioning peds was to wonder if this generation is being judged against the previous one where ped/hgh were common. Thats to say….did the previous generation have HELP lasting longer…and this generation is essentially normal. Not calling into question this generation and ped.
I believe the consensus is that MLBs margin of error in catching players, is close to the number of actual players still using. If that is true, MLB now has enough data to analyze how PEDs affected the game. The scope of the PED discussion may need to change, but the importance of the discussion will not
A third, more cynical option would be players are breaking down from PED usage earlier
Makes a person wonder how Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens seemed to defy that decline. Maybe they got to them at a later stage in their career.
I think the Cubs let him walk, and go after Otani and someone younger next year. Otani and Chatwood, Duffy, or Moore. They also could trade for a pitcher like Odorizzi.
Chatwood yes, Moore is with SF so no FA until 2020 & KC working on extension with Duffy. Along with Chatwood possibly Cobb, Yu is a long shot. if Theo wants legit pitching Baez, Happ, Eloy, Candelario, Cease , & god forbid Schwarber may have to be dealt.
Yeah, Jake’s in his final season as a Cub. We all appreciate what he had done, but let someone else over-pay. I agree on Otani and another free agent. I’m not sure their farm system is deep enough to afford making many impact trades.
I’d love the Cards to bring Moss back and let him play some first allowing Carpenter to move around the diamond, and help out in left where Grichuk and Pham aren’t guaranteeing any results.
He also hits left handed which we could use some help there, and if they could get him on a two year deal at a decent rate, then move Adams for a AA reliever.
Moss is a better hitter than Adams, and can play the outfield. And Adams has some value. He has two years of cheap control and can hit. The Rays could land him for one of their mid level pitchers they don’t have a need for.
I would want Moss for two years though. Next years free agent market doesn’t have as many hitters.
Consider it a 2 year deal for 18 mil?
4 mil signing bonus
2017 – 8 mil
2018 – 6 mil
Front loaded means less cash for the team overall. But the flexibility is pretty valuable for the team as payroll is rising in 2018 and if a hitter like Bader develops, trading him may become necessary.
moss, successful season and st louis cardinals don’t even belong in the same sentence.
Well he was leading the NL in slugging in August
Arrieta was a terrible in Baltimore for years. He figured it for 2 years now & thinks he should be paid like he’s Roger Clemens. Theo’s teams don’t get older. Buyer’s remorse is inevitable for whatever team does give him that big money. He was very up & down last year for someone who’s stuff is that hard to hit