This week's mailbag gets into potential Gunnar Henderson trade timing, the potential of Marlins lefty Braxton Garrett, possible All-Star Game starting pitchers, whether the Tigers might trade injured ace Tarik Skubal, who the Padres might add at the trade deadline, and more.
Drew asks:
Let's play a game, part 1: predict the odds on a Gunnar trade this year, offseason, 2027 pre trade deadline, or not at all. Part 2: What's his actual value in terms of prospect capital given his downturn in performance?
Henderson, 25 in June, is under team control through 2028. This is his first arbitration year, and he's earning $8.5MM. As a Boras client, Henderson isn't seen as a likely extension candidate for the Orioles.
As of Wednesday morning, the 16-20 Orioles have pretty much abandoned their hopes of winning the AL East, but are only one game back for a wild card spot. According to FanGraphs, they have a 31.4% chance of reaching the playoffs this year.
After a 1 for 5 effort against the Marlins on Tuesday, Henderson's wRC+ stands at just 95 through 163 plate appearances. He's shown good power with nine home runs, but is striking out nearly 31% of the time and thus has a .208/.270/.443 line. Henderson's expected batting average is .225, so he's mostly earned his ugly early-season line. In a full season, Henderson has yet to post a wRC+ below last year's 120, and he soared as high as 154 in 2024.
Has Henderson previously posted a .713 OPS over 35 games? Yes - he was notably worse from August 19th through September 27th last year, when he hit .248/.333/.308 (83 wRC+). He also had an early 2023 run of that length with a .684 OPS (.192/.328/.356 for a 94 wRC+). What's happened so far is well within the range of normal variation for Henderson. After that streak ended in '23, he posted a 130 wRC+ the rest of the way.
Henderson has spent ample time at both third base and shortstop in his career, though he's been at short exclusively since his monster '24 season. He's demonstrated roughly average defensive abilities at the position.
The Orioles could reasonably fall out of the playoff race prior to the August 3rd trade deadline. They could trade Henderson for three pennant races, moving on from his final 2 1/3 years of control.
Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias is a pragmatic type, but I expect him to re-load (to a degree) for 2027 and try to win again with Henderson. Henderson projects to be worth 5 WAR this year and is making a fraction of his market value. There's just no good reason to cash him in this summer. I'll put the summer 2026 trade odds at 1%.
As we entertain this hypothetical, it's worth asking who would take over for the Orioles at shortstop. Jeremiah Jackson, getting most of the second base share at present, is one candidate. He was seen as having the athleticism for the position back in his prospect days, before he was traded to the Mets and then later released. Jackson Holliday has five more years of team control remaining and could be a long-term option, though he's been slow to return this year from a broken hamate bone. Jordan Westburg is on the 60-day IL with a partial UCL tear, so he's a major question mark right now. Neither Holliday nor Westburg has played shortstop regularly since 2023.
MLB.com suggests prospect Wehiwa Aloy could stick at shortstop, but he's currently at High-A. Former big leaguer Jose Barrero has been handling shortstop for the Triple-A Norfolk Tides and could be a 2026 stopgap.
Is Holliday the best long-term internal bet to take over at shortstop? He was seen as a plus defensive shortstop coming up, but as a second baseman last year he struggled mightily going to his right and did not demonstrate a strong arm. Holliday has five years of control remaining, but he also has one decent MLB season under his belt and has yet to get going in 2026.
I'm trying to talk myself into the Orioles trading Henderson during the 2026-27 offseason, and I find it to be a major stretch. They just don't have a ready replacement, so trading Henderson would be a huge concession for '27. The Orioles are committed to Pete Alonso and Shane Baz through 2030, the resurgent Adley Rutschman is under control through '27, Westburg through '29, and Holliday through '30. While I don't love that MLB core, pivoting to a reset this winter by trading their best player would be a gut-punch to fans. Throw in a lockout that will likely eat up three-plus months of the offseason, significantly shortening the window to make a franchise-altering trade, and it feels even less likely.
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“The Orioles could reasonably fall out of the playoff race prior to the August 3rd trade deadline.” They’re already out of it, we just don’t know it yet.
Time to do some free editing contractor work:
“Whether it’s getting on base or hitting for power, the Padres don’t haven’t hit well. ”
The word “don’t” should be removed.
“But Preller could attempt to move him and go after someone like the Padres’ Jarren Duran (which could mean more second base time for Tatis).”
Er, the Padres’ Jarren Duran? I’m sure the Red Sox would love to trade records, but that’s not what the thing be.
Thanks
Tim Dierkes is usually great so I’d chalk it up to a one time thing. Thought it was a Nick Deeds article at first 🤣
As for Gunnar specifically, I don’t think he gets traded until his last year of control if Elias is still around (hopefully not). Elias drafted him. Maybe over 2 years the Orioles have a younger, cheaper replacement. Gunnar has also regressed since 2023-mid 2024 form. Last year he was hitting with contact but didn’t have the power, this year he has the power back but has lost the contact. It actually is in Gunnar’s personal future $ interest to stick around until he gets back that 2023-mid 2024 form.
I put <1% on the Orioles being the team that signs him to the big boy contract.
In a larger context, something is more worrisome about the system. Guys tearing up the minors and maybe initially for up to a season or so at MLB but failing to grow from there – and regressing. That includes Gunnar, Rutschman, and Cowser, and only Rutschman shows a glimmer of stopping that slide so far this season. Plus, no viable home-grown pitching has developed.
Long time fans may remember the mid 80s. Storm Davis, Mike Boddicker, Mike Young, and Larry Sheets namely. All showed early stardom. Davis was a top half starter '82-'84 and fell off. Boddicker was near ROY in '83, Cy Young contending in '84 (the LAST 20 game winner they have had), and fell off. Young hit 28 HR in '85 and never showed that form again, Sheets 31 HR in '87. The current situation looks really familiar (but without any semblance of home grown pitching).
Meanwhile, contemporaries like Bobby Witt Jr. and Corbin Carroll don't show the same backslide the Orioles are. Something isn't being addressed there despite coaches and managers taking the fall for it, and that starts with Mike Elias.
Can we reasonably have hope that Holliday or Basallo (who's married to the team for 7 seasons) will be different? Elias also took Cowser, whose shown over about 1000 MLB AB he’s not a MLB caliber hitter, yet he also remains.
Elias has to go.
I just wish the O’s would get out of their “Let’s trade for sluggers” mindset. I had hopes they had turned a corner when they acquired guys like Baz and Helsley but…no. Stop salivating over Taylor Ward, Tyler O’Neill, Pete Alsonso and, before that, Nelson Cruz, Chris Davis, etc. Get a solid rotation, a strong bullpen and some more speed. Forget homers.