Email a copy of '2017-18 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings' to a friend
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By Tim Dierkes | at
Email a copy of '2017-18 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings' to a friend
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dodgergreg
Make that .175 for a batting average.
Jeff Todd
That was my mistake. Fixed.
dodgergreg
For CarGo.
kachur7
Who wants to give Justin Upton more that $22 million a year for 2 WAR?
Tim Dierkes
I think it’s in the realm of possibility that he has a 3-4 WAR season in 2017.
dodgerfan711
Really dont think upton will opt out. No one will give him anything close to his current contract
padam
Upton should hang tight with that contract.
chesteraarthur
Would be interested to hear why the royals free agents are ranked this way. I can understand Moose ahead of LoCain due to age and still playing a somewhat demanding defensive position, but Hosmer I just don’t get being above those two. Hosmer is a 0.84 war/600 player for his career.
For a 1b he’s got questionable power, he’s not a good defender, he doesn’t run the bases well, and he is stuck as a 1b only player. We saw last offseason how that type of player isn’t really valued in free agency. The only thing he really has is age (though he’s only 1 year younger than Moustakas).
What are the contracts that you are projecting for these players that has them in this order?
Tim Dierkes
Hosmer is explained in greater depth here:
mlbtraderumors.com/2017/03/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-…
While I don’t think his WAR tells the whole story, I also don’t think he’s very good. He just has good marketing. So his spot is reflective of a projection around five years and $90MM. If the Royals offered him that right now, he might turn that down.
The marketing idea kind of goes out the window if he keeps hitting like this. Steve Adams suggested Hosmer should be moved down to #10. But I didn’t want to be overly reactive – if something like 5/90-100 made sense a month ago, I might wait another month and then maybe he’s #10 or off the list.
Something like four years, $72MM for Moose. As his ACL tear gets further in the rearview, and if he keeps hitting, I think five years would be on the table and he could get to #7 or 8.
Tim Dierkes
We talked about Cain this week…it’s hard for me to see him getting a fifth year when his new deal starts with his age 32 season.
chesteraarthur
All fair points. I guess I just don’t see Hosmer’s marketing being that successful. I’d like to think that non-KC front offices will be smart enough to not overpay him for his intangibles or whatever Boras tries to peddle to cover for the fact that he isn’t very valuable on the field, but Boras is pretty good at his job, so…
Career numbers aren’t the best to use to illustrate a point since players can change over time, but he’s got a career 106 wRC+. That’s the 2016 version of Andrew McCutchen, but at 1b..
chesteraarthur
I guess he’s at 108 over the last 3, so it’s really not that much different.
jlmini10
Any thoughts on what Lance Lynn could command? I know he’s older than Pineda but he’s been consistently better.
Tim Dierkes
Maybe 3/39? With a good enough year, four years could become possible.
metseventually 2
I’d really like Moose on the Mets, but I get the feeling Syndergaard and himself feel very differently.
Joe Kerr
Where does Luis Robert fit on this list now that he is a FA?
jdgoat
He’ll be signed before all these guys become free agents
chesteraarthur
No where near it, because the international bonus rules will limit his earning power.
Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA
No he was cleared so international bonus rules won’t impact his earning power. It’ll be the next class that it affects, teams are still operating under the old rules.
chesteraarthur
You don’t think a team having to pay a 100% tax on any of their overages and limiting the teams that can even do that are going to limit his earning power?
He’s getting ~50% of what a team is going to have to pay to acquire him and his possible destinations are restricted by teams that can’t go over 300k. How is it that those conditions wont serve to restrict his earning power?
Moncada was the highest paid IFA ever, he made 31.5 million. Do you Robert will get significantly more than that? Probably, not. Following that thread, do you really think a 31.5m contract is going to rank anywhere close to the top 10 free agent contracts? I’m gonna say that again, the answer is probably not.
chesteraarthur
The old rules limited earning power as well. Moncada was valued at 63m or whatever by the redsox, he only earned 31.5m.
Joe Kerr
For the record my original question was in relation to talent as to where he would fit on the list, not $$ spent on his contract.
chesteraarthur
This list isn’t sorted by talent, so it’d be tougher to fit him in the list properly using that criteria while the other names on the list are organized by earning power.
“That’s the goal here: to rank the upcoming free agents based on earning power. These rankings represent expected contract size, assuming each player reaches the open market and goes to the highest bidder”
If he is to come here and be a top 25 prospect or so like jeff said in the chat, that’d put him as about a 55fv player, which is about 2.5 WAR, which is roughly what Mike Moustakas was projected at for 2017. Obviously, that’s fv and not pv, so it’s unlikely that he would appear on this list purely by talent either.
outinleftfield
He wouldn’t really fit on this list. He is so young and missed so much time that you really need to think about him as if he was a draft pick or a prospect. As far as money goes, he might get as much as the Padres gave Morejon, but probably half that.
seamaholic 2
Think you’re gonna have to make room for Tyler Chatwood on this list pretty soon.
Kayrall
The teams that sign Moos and Hosmer this off season are going to regret it quickly if these projections are accurate.
chesteraarthur
I think it will be very interesting to watch Hosmer this FA period.
ExileInLA 2
Jay Bruce can’t sustain his start – but if he repeats his (pre-trade) normal performance he’ll be top 10 soon.
hojostache
We (Met fans) sure hope so. I admittedly wasn’t a fan of the trade, but he seems to be settling in on and off the field.
TheMichigan
I hope to God that Upton opts out
hojostache
That was a bad contract before the ink dried, so I can understand the desire by DET fans. I’ve never liked his game, hopefully he opts out and a team like LAD grabs him.
bravosfan4life
I hope the braves go out and get lucroy he will be worth it we need a catcher badly
BooJays33
how does zack cozart get an hon. mention but Marco Estrada doesn’t?
zwmartin
Get Hosmer out of here.
doomfactory
Cueto is only in the 2nd year of his deal. It was signed in 2016, can he opt out of the last 2 years?
bfolls
Yes
Bryan Jones
So you mean to tell me that Micheal Pineda, who has never thrown more than 175 innings, has only thrown over 100 innings twice, and has only had one season with an ERA of less than 4, which was 3.87, is better than Chris Tillman?? Tillman had two seasons back to back of 200 innings plus, has had 4 years in the last 5 of an ERA less than 3.80, and has averaged 190 innings over the past 4 years??? Pineda is better??? Really??? Get outta here with that blasphemy.