Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper is in the midst of rebounding from a relatively disappointing 2016, which is putting him on track to secure a contract worth at least $400MM if he hits free agency after next season, writes Eddie Matz of ESPN.com. In the event Harper is willing to sign for a Giancarlo Stanton-esque 13 years (or more), a deal worth $500MM-plus might even end up on the table, Matz contends. At least one general manager agrees, telling Matz: “Four hundred million is light. It’s going to be more than that. If you could sign him to a 15-year contract, you do it. I would say something in the range of $35 million a year, maybe closer to the high 30s. It could approach 40 million dollars a year.” With his .324/.441/.648 batting line in 213 plate appearances this season, the 24-year-old Harper is making a case for a record payday, but one GM cautions that certain owners won’t be so gung-ho on breaking the bank for him. “Some owners will bow out because they think becoming the highest-paid player should be sufficient,” said the GM. “Having to go 10, 20, 30 percent above that is going to become increasingly challenging for people who are uber-successful businessmen.”
More from the National League:
- Cardinals third baseman Jhonny Peralta’s roster spot might be in jeopardy when second baseman Kolten Wong returns from the disabled list, according to Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com. Wong, out since May 28 with a left elbow strain, could rejoin the Redbirds as early as Friday. As for Peralta, he won’t regain his old starting job at third – Jedd Gyorko has been the Cardinals’ biggest power threat since last season, after all – and isn’t particularly interested in taking reps at first, per Langosch. That lack of versatility could cost Peralta his place on the team, even though he’s making an expensive $10MM to complete a four-year contract, in favor of recently promoted prospect Paul DeJong. Thanks in part to health issues, the 35-year-old Peralta has markedly fallen off dating back to last season, having combined for a team-worst minus-0.9 fWAR and a .249/.297/.374 line in 370 trips to the plate.
- The Mets are considering going to a temporary six-man rotation when Steven Matz and Seth Lugo make their season debuts this weekend, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter links here). Robert Gsellman has recently made a strong case to stave off a trip to the bullpen and would likely be part of a six-man staff, notes Morosi. That would leave Tyler Pill as the odd man out, it seems, given that Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey are entrenched as starters.
I know Harper is good, but it’s seems like he is just supposed to be good and it is just a “fluke” every other season when he struggles. I don’t believe he is worth 500 million. As a yankee fan I hope our team stays away from him as I don’t care for his personality or him blocking any of our young outfield prospects.
You wouldn’t want your team to sign the 2nd best player in the big leagues? Lol that sounds like a good idea. If my team has the budget available I’d want him on my team
What I’m saying is he doesn’t play like the 2nd best player in the league very consistently.
He had a down year last season and he was still better then most. The outfielders they have coming up are nowhere close to Harpers talent,as a Yankee fan the answer to sign him is an emphatic yes. The other outfielders can easily be dealt for pitching!
He had a down year in the three seasons before 2015 too.
What he says is true. Harper has only had one elite season so far out of five. That’s not $400M or $500M production.
He didn’t have a down year, he had an average year for him look at his stats. His 42 hr year is the only non average year to this point
in those first three years he averaged .272,had on OBP of .350,and was hurt two of the three. Won ROY,played decent defense,oh and was 19 20 and 21. Kid is still 24 years of age..what to you sir is 400-500 million production? Please don’t say Trout because he won’t be available!
Since when are a 4.6 and 4 win season as a 19 and 20 year old considered down years?
These guys would down Harper even if he had won 3 MVP’s!!!
Manny Machado. Also 24. But has had more success (25.9 WAR to Harpers 23.9 WAR) in 44 less games, and been more consistent. And MUCH better defensively at a primary position as well. So realistically if Machado has produced better in his ages 19-24 seasons than Harper has (and in less games) should be not be in the discussion as well?
Different skill sets. Machado’s higher WAR comes from his elite defense at two skill positions. Harper is a good right fielder with a very good arm, but right field isn’t comparable to shortstop or 3rd base. Harper walks a lot more than Manny and has a lot more power; Manny hits for higher batting averages but gets on base less. Obviously Manny is going to make huge money as well, He has had surgery on both knees and doesn’t run anymore, and that may lower his value a bit but he’s going to make 300 million plus.
Problem for Boras is finding a team willing to pay that amount, even 300-400m could be a huge stretch. Think Bett’s could be in for a shock also if he is thinking that way in 3y.
I believe SP will eventually be the 1st to crack the guaranteed 300, 400 and 500m salary figures, not position players.
I disagree with that logic. I think teams will shell out big time when some of these guys like Harper and Betts hit FA. Playing every day compared to every 5 will demand more money.
Giancarlo Stanton already hit the guaranteed $300 million mark. He is guaranteed to earn at least $325 million if he decides not to opt-out. And GMs are realizing position players are a much, much safer bet than pitchers to give guaranteed money.
Generally speaking, hitters recover well from injuries – especially the type of injuries most common to position players. You’re generally looking at things like pulled hammys and relatively minor hand injuries. Pitchers get injured in much more career-threatening ways – look at a guy like Matt Harvey, who was the 2nd best pitcher in the NL in 2013 but really doesn’t deserve a roster spot today.
So no, I have to disagree with you completely. Position players are much safer and therefore much more likely to deserve bigger money contracts.
Bryce Harper blocking a prospect is a bad thing? Don’t think 99.9% of prospects will likely approach Harper level production.
exactly that’s not an issue at all
I completely agree. As a Yankee fan, he is simply too inconsistent. If your gonna break the bank in 2018 then you ought to get a pitcher. I’m surprised Kershaw isn’t mentioned as a key target for the Yankees should he opt out of his contract. The Yankees are currently set in the outfield and have many hitting prospects. If the Yankees make one move, get Kershaw.
Regardless 15 years is already ridiculous before you consider a nearly 500 million dollar commitment to one man. I don’t have a degree in business but this contract is a huge red flag and potential franchise crusher and should be avoided at all costs.
Harper could make the argument he’s worth that much. And there are many scenarios where Harper can make good on a 400 million dollar deal.
I agree. Let him financially handcuff another team. Yankees have plenty of outfielders that will be good enough. Maybe not Harper but good enough to add to rest of team with the 40 mil a year not paying Harper. Nolan Arenado should be Yankees target and some young controllable starting pitching. Not machado.
You two are just reinforcing everybody’s opinion that Yankees fans don’t really understand baseball.
I think their main point is that if the Yankees had$300-$400 million to spend, it shouldn’t be on One player for a position that the team does not Need (notice I said Need, not Improve). If Kershaw was to become a free agent, as Andy mentioned above, it would make way more sense for the Yankees to go after him. I don’t ever see him leaving the Dodgers though.
Lol. The dude is 24 years old and has undeniable elite talent. Of course he’s going to be inconsistent at times while he’s this young. But talent is still there. If you don’t want one of the top baseball talents of our life time playing for your favorite team then that’s just plain ignorance
Your giving Harper too much credit
You’re giving him too little.
He theoretically shouldn’t even be in his prime yet…
Harper, in his only “down year”, was still an above average baseball player despite fighting through injuries.. Only Yankees fans ITT seem to not understand that. There is nobody in the entire Yankee organization as talented as Bryce Harper is, so it’s especially hilarious that multiple Yankee fans here are claiming he’s awful when in reality, he’s pretty clearly the 2nd or 3rd best position player in baseball.
Evidently you’re bias for some reason and don’t have the ability or the will to give Bryce credit!
I disagree.
A player’s prime is typically around 28-29 years old because that’s USUALLY the point that they’ve been in the league a certain numbers of years and have that level of experience. 28-29 isn’t just some magic age wherein players suddenly become really good.
If you enter the league a lot earlier, your prime is going to start a lot sooner, but it also may last longer. But I would certainly say Harper is in his prime or close.
I wouldn’t want a 24 yearold former mvp blocking any prospects
What’s wrong with his personality? And it’s ridiculous to compare him to your outfield prospects – none of whom will likely ever put up a season close to as good as Harper put up in 2015. Judge, your best OF “prospect” right now – is OLDER than Bryce Harper.
The Mets need to absolutely stick with the six man rotation.
DFA Peralta
There’s no “if” Bryce Harper hits free agency after next season, lmfao
Realistically, you’re right.
As a Mets fan, I can’t wait until Harper and Murphy both leave Washington.
No player can be expected to produce consistently for 15 years. Even 10….
This notion just makes me cringe. They should implement a rule similar to the NBA where contracts can’t reach such ridiculous lengths.
Either your smart and forced to pass or you’re all-in and most likely going to pay for it down the road.
Why take money away from players? I’d rather players get paid than owners pocket it.
owner will make up for big contracts. it’s called, upping the price you pay.
I agree if the owners want to pay it let them
Why stop at 6? Why not 8 man rotation? Why not just let each pitcher pitch only once each year then dfa him and sign a different guy?
Otani pitcher > Otani batter
Assuming it translates as such here in America, I agree. And Darvish and Tanaka (except for maybe this year) have come over and shown Japanese pitchers can make it in the bigs.
I also think there’s a much better chance of him ending up as a pitcher simply because good pitching is hard to come by
$500 mil for one guy? What has this game come to? lol
My thoughts exactly
A multi-billion dollar league
bartolo colon.. ra dickey.. Both have produced consistently for 15 years
No they haven’t. What are you talking about? They’re old but they’re definitely not consistent. Both those guys were out of baseball for a while, reinvented themselves, and came back. They’re the opposite of “consistent for 15 years”.
Those number$$ being thrown around concerning Harper are disgusting. Crap like this is what’s seriously wrong with baseball.
Owners, players, and agents need to come back to reality, before the game is beyond repair.
The same thing was said at the dawn of free agency!
Beyond repair? Baseball is setting revenue records every year. Harper will get what the market will bear, obviously. Baseball is the only sport that operates as a true free-market system.
A true free market system wouldn’t allow teams to maintain control over players via arbitration. Young elite players are being robbed by a cabal of greedy uber wealthy businesses. It’s called Crony Capitalism! And reflect the real world to a tee.
That’s true. I was thinking more of the free-agency system. But yeah, the draft is a completely unfair system and the minor-league pay structure is awfully unfair to the players.
But the NBA has some complicated combination of salary caps with like a million exceptions, NFL contracts aren’t guaranteed and players can be cut for getting injured without their full salary, which is super shady, and the NHL, from what I understand, has a hard salary cap.
We also have a draft that severely limits the potential earnings of players.
Nope.
DeJong is earning his playing time, I sure hope he doesn’t get demoted
Trout is the best player in baseball!
A contract for Harper will have an opt out anyways around his age 28-31 seasons. Probably even two of them since Heyward got two. Fortunately his contract negotiations will be relatively quick and early in the winter. Teams either have the money or don’t.
There are teams that won’t even pay out $400 million over the next decade, If the game is going to be “consistently change” then throw a salary cap in the mix. Force teams to develop strong farm systems instead of signing outrages contracts. At the end of the day, whoever is paying Bryce Harper for years 34+ is screwed because he will not perform at $40(+) million stature.
Salary caps don’t really work;. Football has a salary cap and the same four teams win every year. The NBA has a salary cap and the same two teams have been in the finals three years in a row now. Hockey has a hard cap but I don’t know enough about the NHL, but it does seem like Pittsburgh and Chicago are always the best teams..
MLB has no salary cap and 7 different teams have won the WS in the last 10 years.
As far as “forcing teams to develop farm systems,” they’re already doing that. Even the wealthy teams like the Dodgers and Red Sox and Yanks have really strong farm systems.
But he probably won’t be making 40 million in those seasons
You’re right, worse. $45 million then.
A 15 year deal would put Harper at age 39 when the deal is complete. How likely is he to continue to produce come the last 5-6 years of his deal? Someone’s going to pay though, and will learn to regret it when they can’t pay for a supporting cast later on.
Well, there’s salary inflation and I’m assuming a smart team would front-load the contract or do a Pujols/Bonilla thing and add a bunch of post-contract money.
And how many times has Harper had…
100 RBI?
100 Runs?
.275 Batting Avg.?
Hit 25 HRs?
500 million huh?
Talent is one thing but putting it all together is another…
I like the arbitrary cutoffs and the belief that batting average and RBIs mean anything.
Here’s a better one and more simple:
How many times has Harper had an OPS+ of 110 or higher?
Every year of his career.
So runs and hits don’t mean anything is a sport where that’s how you win? That’s insane players get the big bucks to hit the ball and drive in runs, Harper was overhyped before he got to the mlb. Yeah he’s 24 but if you compare him to players of the past that came up very young his numbers don’t really stack up to theirs.
I’m not sure why you say his numbers don’t compare. Since 1918, Bryce Harper ranks in the top 15 in HR, wRC+ and fWAR of all players with at least 3 seasons thru their age 23 season.
He is tied with M. Mantle for 9th in HRs. The 3 players ranked 6-8 are Griffey Jr, T. Williams and O. Cepeda, while 11-13 are J Gonzalez, G. Stanton and J. Foxx.
Similar company for wRC+. He is 15th with the 3 ahead of him being J. DiMaggio, Griffey Jr, Stanton and 3 behind him are D. Strawberry, F. Robinson and M. Cabrera.
Looking at Harper’s stats for his age and he compares favorably with numerous HOFs and all time greats. Barring serious injury, there is no reason Harper won’t deserve big bucks when he enters free agency going into his age 26 season.
$400 million for one player? Name for me one of these long-term $150mm+ contracts that hasn’t been a steaming dumpster fire handcuffing the team that offered it with still several years left on the deal.
Josh Hamilton; Albert Pujols; Miguel Cabrera; Giancarlo Stanton; Carl Crawford; David Price; Mike Hampton; A-Roid….the list goes on and on…….
I don’t get it at all, but don’t begrudge the players for getting as much money as some owner is stupid enough to offer.
Kershaw had been working out well so far…
peralta shouldn’t be the only one one the roster bubble in st louis. 3/4ths of the team should be in AAA.
The A-Rod record setting Mariners deal was a complete bargain.
It was with the Rangers!
Don’t care who the player is, signing for more than 7 or 8 years is a huge gamble for a team. Talented guys get hurt, break down, get lazy, etc. Whatever you do, put in incentive clauses and option years. Spending too much for one player can also damage team morale. Why should I play hard? Let Superman save us.
Correction: $uperman.
Completely agree with this. Not trying to take away from Harper being a good player, but he’s yet to even put up back to back good seasons. Would you want to pay Harper $40 mil for last years production? You can say he was injured…. but well… who says he won’t be injured in 2018 or 2019 or 2025. All I know is a little more consistency is necessary for me to commit that much to a player for that long of a time. Personally even with the better consistency it’s a huge gamble with the length we are talking about giving him. Doesn’t make sense to me why teams make this mistake over and over.
Peter Gammons says Harper wants to play for the Cubs. Not sure they want to pay Harper, Bryant and Heywood.
Peter Gammons is never right!
The only limiting factor for Harper is going to be the number of teams that are actually going to stay in the bidding war long enough to drive up the price. Harper is probably going to be the most established superstar player at his age to hit free agency and I have little doubt that he’ll sign the biggest contract ever. But, I don’t think it’s going to be quite as far past the record as people think.