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MLBTR Podcast: Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • The NL Central appears to be the most intriguing division from an offseason perspective. The 2023 division winner could be selling. The Reds have a positive youth movement that could be augmented with veterans and turn into a real threat. The Cubs and Cardinals have pieces and could do an offseason push to rapidly improve their teams. The Pirates always seem to be a year or two away. What does each team in the NL Central need to do take the Brewers spot on top of the division? Do you see a potential arms race in the middle of the country instead of the coasts? (25:10)
  • Do the Angels have a chance for Cody Bellinger or one of the top pitchers? (29:50)
  • Could you explain why any team would trade something of value for Jonathan India? He’s been one of the worst defensive second basemen in baseball both of the last two years (according to both DRS and OAA), plus he’s been a below average hitter by wRC+ both years? He’s also had injury concerns both years. Maybe I’m wrong, but wouldn’t just about any contender aim higher than him as a starting second baseman? (34:10)

Check out our past episodes!

Bryce Harper To Play First Base Going Forward

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Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters, including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe, that Bryce Harper will play first base going forward. Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post adds that free agent Rhys Hoskins has been informed of the decision with the position player mix pretty set. Dombrowski added that the club sees Kyle Schwarber as its everyday designated hitter, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Though Harper could conceivably split his time between first and the outfielder, Dombrowski says he wanted Harper to be “in a position where he would play one or the other,” per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Harper, 31, had just two appearances at first base in the first decade of his career, but recent circumstances forced a change. In May of 2022, he was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. That meant he was unable to throw, though the issue didn’t prevent him from hitting. The Phils kept him in the designated hitter slot for the rest of that campaign as Harper’s excellence at the plate helped them reach the World Series.

After they were defeated by the Astros, Harper finally went under the knife, undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of last year. As he was working his way back to health, long-time first baseman Rhys Hoskins torn the ACL in his left knee during a Spring Training game, an ailment that eventually prevented him from appearing at any point in the 2023 season.

Harper went on to beat all projections for his post-surgery recovery and was able to be reinstated by early May, barely five months after his operation. He was limited to designated hitter duties initially but was eventually cleared to take the field. Since a first baseman is rarely required to throw at maximum effort, the club put him at that position as opposed to putting him back in his typical right field spot, which would have required more throws at maximum effort. The Phils used a combination of Alec Bohm, Darick Hall, Kody Clemens and Drew Ellis to cover the spot in the first half but that group largely ceded to Harper in the second half.

He made his first start at first base on July 21 and eventually made 36 appearances in total in the regular season, then stayed there for the club’s 13 playoff games. Advanced defensive metrics generally considered him to be around league average, though in a fairly small sample of work. Having Harper at that spot freed up the club to move Schwarber, who is considered a poor defender, from left field to DH on most nights. The Phils then split the outfield duties between Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, Cristian Pache and Jake Cave.

After the season, it was an open question as to where Harper would be slotted going forward. By the time the 2024 campaign rolled around, he presumably would have been far enough from his surgery to head back to the grass. But with Schwarber and those five outfielders all still on the roster next year, that would have further crowded things out there, forcing the club to perhaps trade someone while also perhaps looking to external first base options.

But the club will stick with Harper at first, which doesn’t leave a space for Hoskins, who is now a free agent. It seems Dombrowski did him the courtesy of letting him know so that he can spend the winter looking elsewhere for his next gig. He hit 148 home runs for the Phillies from 2017 to 2022 but it seems his next homer will be hit in a different uniform. MLBTR recently ranked Hoskins #26 on our list of the Top 50 Free Agents, predicting a pillow contract of two years and $36MM.

This also could have ramifications for Bohm and the third base market. He hasn’t received strong grades for his glovework at the hot corner, which made the Phils a speculative fit to add a player there and move Bohm over to cover first, as he did when Hoskins and Harper were both unavailable. But if Harper is going to be implanted at first, it suggests the club feels fairly confident about Bohm at third. They could always sign someone like Matt Chapman and then make Bohm available in trades but the roster fit isn’t as clean with this development.

It would appear then that the club will be primarily focused on pitching for the rest of the winter, since the position player corps is considered to be in good shape. Aaron Nola is now a free agent and retaining him or finding someone else to replace him would seem to be the logical priority for the club in the months to come, though new developments can always change the calculus over the course of the offseason.

NL East Notes: Harper, Braves, Mets

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One of the biggest questions facing the Phillies this offseason focuses on what position superstar slugger Bryce Harper will play in 2024. The 2024 campaign figures to be Harper’s first full campaign in the field since 2021, as Harper battled a partially torn UCL in 2022 before undergoing Tommy John surgery. That limited Harper to playing DH primarily in both 2022 and 2023, though Harper was able to move to first base late in the 2023 season, filling a hole left by Rhys Hoskins’s ACL injury during spring training. A decision on Harper’s position next year is expected to come in the near future, as president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski indicated to reporters (including Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer) that Harper’s preferred position will be taken into consideration when building the team’s 2024 roster.

With Harper at first base in recent months, the Phillies have been able to use Kyle Schwarber at DH while playing both Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas in the outfield to improve the club’s outfield defense. If Harper were to return to his native right field in 2024, that would seemingly leave Nick Castellanos to move over to left field, with Marsh and Rojas platooning in center. Speculatively speaking, that could open the door for the club to resign Hoskins in free agency or look into other potential first base bats like Brandon Belt and Jeimer Candelario. On the other hand, if Harper plays first base primarily next season, the club could look to add an additional outfielder such as Teoscar Hernandez, Adam Duvall, or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to deepen their outfield group.

More from around the NL East…

  • David O’Brien of The Athletic recently discussed the future of the Braves rotation, which in part hinges upon the decisions made regarding veteran righty Charlie Morton. It’s as of yet unclear if the 40-year-old hurler intends to continue playing in 2024, and separately it’s an open question whether or not the Braves will exercise a $20MM club option for his services in 2024 or allow him to hit the open market. With Kyle Wright out of commission until 2025 due to shoulder surgery, parting ways with Morton would leave only Spencer Strider, Max Fried, and Bryce Elder locked into rotation spots headed into the 2024 season. O’Brien makes it clear that righty AJ Smith-Shawver is part of the club’s future plans in some capacity, noting the Braves informed teams that Smith-Shawver was “all but untouchable.” Still, even if the club plans to utilizie Elder and Smith-Shawver at the back of the rotation in 2024, they would likely need to replace Morton externally with a veteran arm rather than relying on youngsters like Darius Vines, Dylan Dodd, and Jared Shuster, all of whom may be better suited for depth roles.
  • SNY’s Danny Abriano recently discussed the options the Mets have at their disposal at third base for the 2024 season. While the third base market features interesting names such as Candelario and top option Matt Chapman, Abriano suggests that the club should stick to its internal options at the hot corner for the 2024 campaign. Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio would appear to be the club’s top contenders for the everyday third base job internally. Baty struggled badly with a .212/.275/.323 slash line in 389 trips to the plate in the majors this year, though his pedigree as a consensus top-30 prospect and his phenomenal minor league numbers suggest the 23-year-old could take the next step in 2024. Mauricio, meanwhile, also struggled at the plate (.248/.296/.347 in 108 plate appearances) and is widely regarded as having a lower offensive ceiling than Baty, but brings quality defense and baserunning to the table when compared to Baty’s defensive miscues at the position. Another factor for the Mets could be top infield prospect Luisangel Acuna, who Abriano suggests will eventually take over second base, which could free up Jeff McNeil to move to third if Baty and Mauricio both struggle in the early parts of the 2024 season.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: The Mets’ Front Office, TJ for Alcantara and the D-Backs Extend Their GM

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • What does Atlanta do with Vaughn Grissom? (14:00)
  • Where should the Phillies put Bryce Harper next year? (16:25)
  • What do the White Sox do if they intend to compete next year? (19:10)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Mariners To Spend? Tigers To Contend? And Managerial Vacancies – listen here​
  • Free Agent Pitching Dark Horses, Padres To Cut Payroll, and If The Angels Should Rebuild — listen here
  • Front Office Changes in Boston and New York, and the New Rays Stadium Agreement — listen here

Phillies Continuing Search For Right-Handed Bat

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The Phillies remain interested in adding a right-handed hitter with the trade deadline approaching, writes Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Ideally, that acquisition would be a corner outfielder, though that’s contingent on Bryce Harper.

The Phils plugged Harper in at first base for tonight’s game in Cleveland. It’s the two-time MVP’s first defensive action of the season. He had been limited to 62 games as a designated hitter after last November’s Tommy John surgery.

Hitting puts far less stress on the UCL in Harper’s right elbow than throwing does. The Phils gave him two months of bat-only work as a result. They’re still not ready to plug him back into right field and it’s unclear if he’ll be able to man the outfield grass at any point in 2023.

Even if he can’t play right field, demonstrating an ability to consistently play first base over the next week and a half would be a major boost for the front office. With Harper at DH, the Phils have had to use Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber as their corner outfield pairing. Even with an excellent defensive center field combination of Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas (or Cristian Pache when healthy), that’s a suboptimal defensive alignment.

Schwarber’s -18 Defensive Runs Saved ranks last among all major league outfielders. The Phils would certainly prefer to keep him at DH, where he’s in the lineup tonight.

Assuming they’re comfortable with Harper’s form over the coming days, Philadelphia could look for right-handed hitting outfield help. Tommy Pham and Mark Canha have been the subject of trade chatter with the Mets scuffling. There could be some complications in pulling off an intra-division swap, though the Mets are only in position to consider moving Pham and Canha because they’re long shots to make the playoffs in 2023 regardless.

Randal Grichuk could move as an impending free agent on a last place Colorado team; as MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, Grichuk is having a decent season against left-handed pitching and would be a much better defender than Schwarber. The Mariners’ middling year might lead them to consider offers on Teoscar Hernández, though he’s another bat-first player with limited defensive utility. Oakland’s Ramón Laureano is still hitting for some power against lefties amidst a dismal season overall; he has been on the injured list for a month but seems likely to be back before the August 1 deadline since he’s on a rehab stint.

Philadelphia certainly isn’t without right-handed hitters who can do damage. Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, Castellanos and Alec Bohm all hit from that side of the plate. Nevertheless, the Phils have been a slightly below-average lineup against lefty pitching. Entering play Friday, they raked 16th with a .253 average against southpaws. They’re 25th with a .306 on-base percentage and ninth in slugging at .434. That overall offensive output, as measured by wRC+, ranks 18th.

Cristian Pache To Undergo Elbow Surgery

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Phillies manager Rob Thomson told reporters, including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer, that outfielder Cristian Pache is set to undergo surgery to remove a screw from his throwing elbow tomorrow. Pache is expected to return this season, though Coffey notes that Thomson said he’ll be out for a “few weeks” nonetheless.

It’s an unfortunate update for Pache, who was placed on the injured list Friday with right-elbow irritation. A former consensus top-20 prospect in the entire sport, Pache came up with the Braves before being swapped to Oakland in the Matt Olson deal. He struggled badly with the A’s last year, slashing just .166/.218/.241 in 91 games. That prompted Oakland to designate Pache for assignment during Spring Training this season before dealing him to the Phillies just before Opening Day.

Tomorrow’s surgery will be Pache’s second this season, as he missed six weeks after undergoing knee surgery at the beginning of May. In spite of those injury woes, Pache’s enjoyed the best offensive season of his career as a part-time player in Philadelphia, slashing an excellent .327/.365/.592 in 53 plate appearances while playing excellent center field defense.

With Pache now headed to the shelf for an extended period of time, Rookie outfielder Johan Rojas figures to get an extended opportunity in Pache’s previous role as a right-handed complement to lefty outfielders Kyle Schwarber and Brandon Marsh. The club’s outfield picture is about to get more flexible as well, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki relays that Bryce Harper is set to make his season debut in the field at first base during the club’s upcoming series in Milwaukee. With Harper set to spend time at first going forward, that will open up the DH for Schwarber more often, allowing the club to play both Marsh and Rojas alongside right fielder Nick Castellanos or open up space for an outfield acquisiton at the trade deadline.

Harper’s recovery from Tommy John surgery has been unprecedented in its speed, and it appears his return to the field will be no exception. In addition to beginning to field at first base later this week, Coffey adds that the Phillies haven’t completely ruled out a return to right field before the end of the season, with manager Rob Thomson quoted as saying the possibility is “on the edge of the table.” Such a move would seemingly be contingent on not only Harper’s health but also the moves the club makes prior to the trade deadline on August 1.

The Phillies have long been interested in adding a right-handed outfielder to the club’s current mix, and such an acquisition could create a logjam in the outfield between Castellanos, Schwarber, Marsh, Rojas, Pache, and the acquisition that would only be further exacerbated by Harper’s return to the grass.

Bryce Harper Exits Game After Hit By Pitch

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Phillies fans had a scare earlier this evening as superstar slugger Bryce Harper exited today’s game against the Marlins after he was hit by a sinker from Marlins lefty Braxton Garrett. The pitch struck Harper’s right elbow, the same elbow Harper underwent Tommy John surgery on back in November. Fortunately, Harper appears to have avoided serious injury, as manager Rob Thomson told reporters (including Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer) that x-rays on Harper’s elbow came back negative. That said, Thomson also noted that Harper’s still dealing with some soreness and his availability for tomorrow’s game is in question.

That Harper is unlikely to require a trip to the injured list is surely a relief for the Phillies. In 55 games since returning from rehabbing the aforementioned Tommy John surgery, Harper entered tonight’s game with a slash line of .287/.381/.392. While just three home runs and a .105 ISO are both unlike Harper, a typically excellent 13.5% walk rate has helped to buoy his production to an above-average 111 wRC+.

In conversation with reporters, including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, Harper acknowledged his first half power outage, saying “I’m not where I want to be. I’m not hitting the homers that I want… I still feel like I’m having good at-bats. I still feel like I’m going out there and plugging along. We have a long way to go.”

Harper also noted that he was progressing toward playing first base, a goal he’s been working toward since before his season debut. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski added that the Phillies will know whether or not Harper can play first base down the stretch prior to the trade deadline on August 1, when Philadelphia seems poised to look for improvements. After a difficult start to the season, the Phillies have heated up with a 23-10 record since the start of June, enough to put them half a game ahead of the Giants for the final NL Wild Card spot.

If Harper will be able to act as the regular starter at the cold corner, the Phillies would be able to explore an addition to their outfield while moving Kyle Schwarber to DH. Mark Canha, Adam Duvall, and Tyler O’Neill are among the outfield bats who appeared on MLBTR’s recent Top 50 Deadline Trade Candidates list that could fit Philadelphia’s needs. In the meantime, Coffey notes that center fielder Brandon Marsh has begun taken reps in left field as the club explores the possibility of using Marsh in left, Cristian Pache in center, and Nick Castellanos in right. With two center field caliber gloves in the outfield, the Phillies could not only see a significant upgrade over Schwarber (-15 Outs Above Average) in left, but also help make up for the subpar glovework of Castellanos (-2 OAA) in right.

Phillies Reinstate Bryce Harper

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May 2: The Phillies have officially announced Harper’s activation, optioning outfielder Jake Cave in a corresponding move.

May 1: Bryce Harper has been cleared to return to the Phillies and is expected to be in the club’s lineup as the designated hitter tomorrow, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.

Harper was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in May of last year but played through the ailment, serving as the designated hitter since he was able to hit but not throw. He eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in November, after the club had charged all the way to the World Series. The club initially announced his expected return for around the All-Star break in July, but it became clear in recent weeks that he had a chance to beat that. The Phils never put him on the 60-day injured list, leaving the door open for him to return in the first couple months of the season.

It had recently been reported that Harper would be visiting Dr. Neal ElAttrache, the Los Angeles-based surgeon who performed his TJS procedure, while the club is in town to play the Dodgers. It seemed earlier today that Harper got the good news he was looking for, as he took to Instagram and posted some pictures of himself with the teasing message “Aye Pham. You ready?” It now seems to be confirmed that he has been given the green light to return to hitting, allowing him to take up the DH spot for the Phils.

Once he’s back on the lineup, he will have completed what seems to be the quickest return to action after going under the knife for Tommy John. Shohei Ohtani was previously one of the fastest to get back on the field, as he underwent the procedure in October of 2018 and was back on the field in May of the following year.

Harper will obviously provide a huge boost to the lineup, having been one of the best hitters in the league for over a decade now. Even while dealing with the UCL tear and missing time with a broken thumb last year, he still hit .286/.364/.514 for a wRC+ of 138, indicating he was 38% better than the league average hitter. If there’s one small downside to Harper’s return, it’s that it will make the club a bit less flexible in setting its lineups. So far this year, most of the DH time has gone to Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, who are both generally considered subpar defenders in the outfield corners. Assuming the Phils have the freedom to use Harper on an everyday basis, that will likely mean having Schwarber and Castellanos in the field more often.

But that’s a small price to pay for an elite bat like Harper. What remains to be seen is when he will be able to return to the field. The initial timeline was that he could potentially return to right field towards the end of the season. However, Harper has been beating every timeline that’s been put in front of him and has also been getting some work in at first base. That position generally involves less stress on the throwing elbow than playing in the outfield and could perhaps allow him to move off the designated hitter spot earlier.

Regardless of when Harper can again play defense, he’s a tremendous boost to the lineup after missing just over a month of the 2023 season. The Phils have managed to stay afloat without him, going 15-14 so far. They are a few games out in the playoff race right now but should get some extra momentum for the remainder of the schedule.

Bryce Harper To Visit Doctor, Could Be Activated For Tuesday’s Game

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A little over five months after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Bryce Harper might be on the verge of returning to the field.  According to The Athletic’s Matt Gelb, Harper is scheduled for a Monday appointment with Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who performed Harper’s TJ surgery on November 23.  If Dr. ElAttrache gives the green light, Harper will likely be activated from the 10-day injured list on Tuesday, when the Phillies face the Dodgers.

While pitchers have a pretty firm 12-to-15 month recovery timeline for Tommy John procedures, hitters face shorter timelines, obviously because they don’t have to rebuild arm strength to the same extent.  For instance, Shohei Ohtani underwent a TJ procedure at the start of October 2018 and was back in the Angels lineup as a DH on May 7, 2019.  That might be the closest comp for Harper’s situation since he will only be acting as a designated hitter for now, though he has been working out as a first baseman for the first time in his career.  A return to his customary spot in right field late in the season might be a possibility if Harper’s elbow continues to improve.

With all this in mind, Harper is still beating Ohtani’s timeline by nearly two full months, making this something of an unprecedented recovery from TJ surgery.  The Phillies initially targeted the All-Star break for Harper’s potential return, and yet as the weeks and months went by following his surgery, more optimism began to grow about a quicker comeback.  Harper started hitting off a tee in early March, then advanced to regular battting-cage work by the end of the month, and has since been taking batting practice and even participating in simulated games against live pitching.

Most tellingly, Harper was only placed on the 10-day injured list to begin the season, rather than the 60-day IL.  Philadelphia president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said at the time that the decision was made because the Phillies didn’t have any immediate need for a 40-man roster spot, but it seemed clear that there was already a possibility that Harper would be ready before the end of May.

“He’s absolutely amazing.  He’s a great athlete,” Dombrowski said about Harper to Gelb.  “He works hard.  He’s focused.  He wants to get back.  I mean, it’s amazing what he’s accomplished. We have that next step (with Dr. ElAttrache), but the progress he’s made is phenomenal.”

Monday’s appointment shouldn’t be seen as a foregone conclusion, as it is possible a full examination and check-up might reveal some type of physical issue that would set back Harper’s progress.  That said, Harper played most of the 2022 season with a small UCL tear, and while he was limited to DH duty, it didn’t impact his effectiveness at the plate.  Harper hit .286/.364/.514 over 426 plate appearances during the regular season and then posted a whopping 1.160 OPS over 71 PA in the playoffs, winning NLCS MVP honors en route to leading Philadelphia to the National League pennant.

Getting Harper back at anywhere near his top form would be a huge boost to a Phillies team that has started to heat up, winning seven of their last eight games.  With Harper at DH, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos would again be the regular corner outfielders.  Alec Bohm has filled in capably at first base for the injured Rhys Hoskins, and if Harper is able to eventually play some first base, Bohm can move back to third base (though Edmundo Sosa has been playing very well in regular duty at the hot corner).

NL East Notes: Scherzer, Arcia, Sosa, Suarez, Harper

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Max Scherzer was scheduled to start for the Mets on Sunday against the Athletics, but Jose Butto will now take the hill tomorrow and Scherzer will be pushed to Wednesday.  Mets manager Buck Showalter told the New York Post’s Mike Puma (Twitter links) and other reporters that Scherzer has some “lingering soreness” in his side, though Scherzer said that scans of the area below his scapula didn’t reveal any structural damage.

Butto was tentatively expected to receive a spot start at some point during the Mets’ road trip, so today’s news seems mostly precautionary in nature, notwithstanding Scherzer’s injury history.  There might also be a bit of gamesmanship at play, since rather than face the struggling A’s, Scherzer is now lined up to face the Dodgers on Wednesday in a game with more implications on the NL playoff race.

More from around the NL East…

  • Orlando Arcia’s microfracture in his left wrist will be re-evaluated in 10-14 days, the Braves told reporters (including MLB.com’s Mark Bowman).  Arcia was placed on the 10-day injured list yesterday and will obviously miss more than the minimum number of days, but a more thorough timeline won’t be known until Arcia is next examined by doctors.  Arcia entered the season with the twin momentum of a new contract extension and a role as Atlanta’s starting shortstop, and he was hitting a hefty .333/.400/.511 over 50 plate appearances prior to his injury.
  • Edmundo Sosa left today’s game due to discomfort in his lower back, according to the Phillies.  Since Philadelphia was trailing 8-0 to the Reds at the time of Sosa’s departure in the bottom of the sixth, it could be that Sosa was just being given a rest from the last few innings of what ended up as a 13-0 rout.  If Sosa did have to miss any time, it would further stretch the depth of a Phillies infield that is already missing Rhys Hoskins and Darick Hall, as Sosa was seeing more action at third base while Alec Bohm had moved to first base.
  • In other Phillies injury news, Ranger Suarez will throw to live hitters during a simulated game on Tuesday, Scott Lauper of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes.  Suarez has yet to pitch this season due to forearm inflammation, and he’ll be facing at least prominent batter during that sim game in the form of Bryce Harper, who will face live pitching for the first time in his rehab from Tommy John surgery.  Initially given a return timeline of around the All-Star break, there continue to be hints that Harper might be back sooner, including the fact that both Harper and manager Rob Thomson don’t feel Harper will need a minor league rehab assignment before re-entering Philadelphia’s lineup.  Given the Trajekt Arc video projection system installed at Citizens Bank Park, Harper can somewhat replicate facing MLB-level pitching during his batting cage work, rather than face live minor league pitching during a rehab assignment.
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