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Bryce Harper

Phillies Notes: Harper, Outfield, Nola

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Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently made an appearance on Philadelphia radio station WIP-FM, with Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer relaying some of his comments on Twitter.

One key storyline for the Phillies this year will revolve around Bryce Harper. The star outfielder was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in May of last year, which prevented him from throwing but allowed him to serve as the designated hitter. His continued presence in the lineup helped the club earn a Wild Card berth and eventually make it all the way to the World Series. After that, he did finally undergo Tommy John surgery in November, with the club announcing at that time they expected him to be out until the around the All-Star break.

Everything with that plan still seems to be in order, with Dombrowski saying that Harper’s rehab has gone well up to this point. Harper is expected to start swinging a bat around the end of March and could be back in the lineup around the time of the All-Star festivities, as initially projected.

One fallout of that Harper situation is that the Phils will have an open designated hitter slot for the first half but Harper will take it over once he’s able. The club could theoretically look outside the organization to find another bat to fill the void, but they apparently feel good enough about their internal candidates that Dombrowski doesn’t anticipate a “big acquisition”. He listed Alec Bohm, Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto as candidates to take over some time in that slot.

Bohm and Hoskins are set to man the corners in Philly just as they’ve done in previous seasons. However, neither is considered an especially strong defender. Bohm has logged 2,280 2/3 innings at third base in his career but has accumulated -36 Defensive Runs Saved, -11 Outs Above Average and a -2.8 score from Ultimate Zone Rating. Hoskins, meanwhile, has 4,195 innings at first base with -7 DRS, -12 OAA, though a positive 5.4 score from UZR. Backup infielders Kody Clemens, Edmundo Sosa and Dalton Guthrie could get some extra time in the field while Bohm and Hoskins get some DH at-bats. Clemens has played both corners and second base in the majors thus far while Sosa has played the three positions to the left of first base and Guthrie has played second and third. Realmuto is considered an excellent defender but catchers can’t crouch behind the plate every day. Since he’s also a great hitter, it makes sense to use the DH spot to get him into the lineup more frequently.

In the outfield, the everyday regulars figure to be Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Brandon Marsh. Neither Castellanos or Schwarber are considered great defenders on the grass, which would make them DH candidates as well. Even if that does end up coming to pass, Dombrowski feels good about the depth they have, mentioning Guthrie and Jake Cave. Given they feel good about their depth options, Dombrowski says they’re “basically set” while adding that further depth could always be added via a minor league deal.

Looking to the future, the Phillies have a great unknown in their rotation since Aaron Nola is now in the final year of his contract. “It’s something we’d like to do,” Dombrowski said about a Nola extension. “We want Aaron to be in the organization for a long time, no question. We love him. We love his abilities. I know he likes it in Philadelphia. So that’s something that will be in our mind… It’s never easy to be able to get done but we’d love to keep Aaron in the organization for a long time.”

Nola, 30 in June, is about to begin his ninth MLB season and so far has a 3.60 ERA through 1,288 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27.5% of batters faced while walking 6.5% of them, and he’s kept the ball on the ground at a 47.9% clip. Since his 2015 debut, his 29.9 fWAR is the sixth-most of any pitcher in the league. It’s no surprise then that the club would like to keep him around, since he’s one of the few true aces in the league. Of course, that excellent work also means he won’t be cheap. Some recent free agent deals for excellent starting pitchers have gone well into nine-figure territory, with Jacob deGrom recently getting $185MM and Carlos Rodón $162MM. It doesn’t sound like anything is particularly close between Nola and the Phillies, but if they truly want him back for next year and beyond, it will surely require adding another hefty contract to their books.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

NL Notes: Pirates, Santana, Reds, Phillies, Mets, Kahnle

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The Pirates’ signing of Carlos Santana was in part driven by the team’s belief that next year’s restriction on infield shifts will help to boost the veteran switch-hitter’s production, general manager Ben Cherington told reporters after finalizing the deal this week (link via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). Beyond that, Santana’s reputation as a leader and mentor for younger players appealed to the club, as did a strong batted-ball profile that featured quality marks in metrics like average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and more.

At one year and $6.725MM, the Santana signing was somewhat remarkably the largest free-agent commitment given out by Cherington since he was hired to guide the Pirates’ latest rebuilding effort back in 2019. Cherington stressed there are other needs to address and that the Pirates, currently projected by Roster Resource to carry just a $54MM payroll, are hopeful of completing some additional deals.

A few more items out of the National League…

  • The Reds inked local product Luke Maile to a one-year contract, setting the stage for him to serve as Tyler Stephenson’s backup. However, general manager Nick Krall suggested after signing Maile the team isn’t closed off to the possibility of adding a third catcher to the big league roster (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). “There is a chance,” Krall noted, pointing out that the addition of the universal designated hitter gives teams the flexibility to more easily work with three backstops. The Reds were reportedly in touch with Tucker Barnhart about a potential reunion before signing Maile, though there’s no indication they’re strongly pursuing him after coming to terms with Maile. Still, Stephenson missed significant time in 2022 with a broken thumb, a concussion and a broken collarbone, and he also has 147 innings of big league experience at first base. There’s some sense to bringing in another catcher — particularly if it’s someone who can handle multiple spots on the diamond to give the Reds some more flexibility.
  • The Phillies were dealt a tough blow last week with the revelation Bryce Harper required a full Tommy John procedure. The Phils announced Harper was expected to return as a bat-only option by the All-Star Break while playing the outfield again at some point in the second half. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski left open the possibility of an earlier return this week (link via Matt Gelb of the Athletic) but suggested he didn’t want to project any kind of more optimistic timeline. “In my own mind, I’m looking at the All-Star break. Anything that’s before that is great,” Dombrowski said. The veteran executive downplayed the need for the Phils to add an outfielder in response to the surgery, pointing out that any pickup would lose his path to everyday playing time once Harper returned. The DH-only role would force Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos into the corner outfield regularly to flank center fielder Brandon Marsh, with righty-hitting Matt Vierling on hand as the fourth outfielder. Dombrowski suggested that while the Phils will be “open-minded” to the possibility of adding on the grass, “it’s not a priority for us.“
  • Adding to the bullpen is certainly a key objective for the Mets, who saw each of Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez and Trevor May hit free agency. Will Sammon of the Athletic reports that New York is one of several teams to have looked into Tommy Kahnle, although he cautions it’s presently unclear how interested the Mets are in the free agent right-hander. Kahnle is an interesting upside play. He lost almost all of 2020-21 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and renewed arm inflammation cost him almost four months with the Dodgers this past season. Kahnle allowed only four runs in 12 2/3 innings when healthy enough to pitch, though, striking out 14 against three walks. The 33-year-old racked up swinging strikes at a massive 17.2% clip while leaning on his stellar changeup more than three-quarters of the time. Kahnle posted a 3.67 ERA with an elite 35.5% strikeout rate over 72 appearances with the Yankees in 2019, his most recent full season.

The Opener: Harper, Judge, 2023-24 Free Agents

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Turkeys are in the oven but what’s simmering on the hot stove?

1. Bryce Harper Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

After playing most of 2022 with a torn UCL, Bryce Harper finally went under the knife yesterday. It wasn’t known what type of surgery he would require until the procedure began, but he ultimately required a full ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction, also known as Tommy John surgery. The Phillies provided this update: “The prognosis is for Bryce to be returning as the designated hitter by the All-Star break of 2023 with a possible return to play right field towards the end of the regular season.” Not having Harper in the lineup for the first half of the season is certainly a blow to the club, but it also creates opportunities by opening up the DH spot. That could mean less time in the outfield for guys like Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos, but there are other plans being considered. Manager Rob Thomson told reporters, including Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer, that one option would be Alec Bohm moving over to first base and Rhys Hoskins taking the DH spot. Third base would then go to Edmundo Sosa, with the club presumably adding a shortstop. The Phils have been connected to the free agent shortstops for some time and Harper’s lengthy absence could increase their urgency to pursue Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.

2.  Aaron Judge Meets With Giants

As expected, Aaron Judge met with the Giants this week. According to Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, this meeting included a chat with NBA superstar Steph Curry. The Giants are expected to make an offer soon and it will be interesting to see what form it takes. The top free agents usually reach free agency in the late 20s but Judge is a little older, turning 31 in April. As part of our post on the top 50 free agents, MLBTR predicted Judge to get an eight-year deal, which would take him into his age-38 season. With multiple teams at the table, would Judge try to get a ninth year with a lower annual salary or would he prefer to focus on the AAV? Also, who else will he meet with? It’s been reported that the Dodgers are interested in signing Judge to take over right field and then moving Mookie Betts to second base. Is Judge planning to take a trip down the Pacific Coast Highway after the holidays?

3. 2023-24 Free Agents

The 2022-23 offseason is underway, but if you’re already looking ahead to next winter, MLBTR has you covered. Later today, we will publish a list of players currently slated to reach the open market one year from now. This list will be fluid since some players will sign extensions, while current free agents will agree to one-year deals or longer pacts with options or opt-outs opportunities. The post will be updated over time to reflect those changes. There are some very intriguing names on the list, but the most exciting is a certain two-way player who’s currently on the Angels.

Bryce Harper Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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4:50pm: The Phillies announced the surgery and provided this update about his timeline: “The prognosis is for Bryce to be returning as the designated hitter by the All-Star break of 2023 with a possible return to play right field towards the end of the regular season.”

4:10pm: Phillies outfielder/designated hitter Bryce Harper underwent Tommy John surgery today, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Salisbury adds that it went “very well” and that Harper could be back into a competitive setting by mid-May.

Harper was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament back in May, which prevented him from throwing. However, he was still able to hit and served as the Phillies’ designated hitter for the rest of the season, delaying treatment until the offseason. The UCL injury didn’t slow him down at all, as he finished the year with a batting line of .286/.364/.514 for a wRC+ of 138. He then went bonkers in the playoffs, hitting .349/.414/.746 for a wRC+ of 217 and helping the Phillies get to the World Series.

It was reported last week that Harper would undergo a surgery of some kind, though the extent of it wouldn’t be known until he was actually under the knife. One option would have been an internal brace procedure, which generally requires less recovery time than a full Tommy John procedure. However, the ligament damage was apparently significant enough that a full TJS was eventually required.

Of the two possible outcomes, this is certainly bad news for the Phillies. However, it’s not as dire as it would be for a pitcher. TJS usually requires a pitcher to miss about 12-18 months while recovering and regaining strength, but position players can return much quicker. For example, Shohei Ohtani underwent TJS in October of 2018 but was serving as the Angels’ designated hitter by early May of 2019.

Each player and each injury are unique, so it can’t just be assumed Harper will follow the same timeline. But it does illustrate that Harper’s 2023 isn’t doomed. As Salisbury mentions, it’s possible that Harper is playing in competitive games by mid-May, presumably on some sort of rehab assignment that will see him rejoin the team after that. The next question will be when Harper will be able to retake the field, which is also something that could happen in 2023. Didi Gregorius underwent TJS in October of 2018 and was playing shortstop by June of 2019, some eight months later.

The ongoing fallout from Harper’s injury has been and will continue to be mitigated by the designated hitter. The National League didn’t adopt the DH on a permanent basis until the 2022 season, which was good timing for the Phils since it allowed Harper to stay in the lineup for most of 2022 and will allow him to return quicker next year.

While Harper is out of action at the beginning of the season, that will open up the DH spot for some of the club’s lesser defenders, such as Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. Though the DH allowed the club to hang onto Harper’s bat, it also meant that Scharber and Castellanos had to play the field much more than they originally envisioned. For at least part of 2023, they will have more ability to use the DH slot for those guys. The club’s regular outfield mix is slated to consist of those two along with Brandon Marsh in center. If one of the corner outfielders is in the DH slot, it opens playing time for guys like Matt Vierling or Dalton Guthrie. Then again, the club could also use the DH slot to get Darick Hall into the lineup more, as the first baseman is currently block by Rhys Hoskins there.

Bryce Harper To Undergo Elbow Surgery Next Week

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Phillies star Bryce Harper will undergo elbow surgery to repair his damaged ulnar collateral ligament next Wednesday, president of baseball operation Dave Dombrowski announced today (Twitter link via Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Imaging hasn’t conclusively determined whether Harper will require a full Tommy John surgery (i.e. ligament replacement) or whether an internal brace procedure could suffice, so the team won’t have a timeline until the surgery is performed.

Harper was diagnosed with a UCL tear back in May but was able to continue his 2022 season as the Phillies’ primary designated hitter. Position players who sustain UCL tears are often able to continue hitting, but throwing is obviously not an option with such an injury. Even in the event of a full Tommy John surgery, it should be noted that Harper could very likely return to the field as a DH for a notable portion of the 2023 season.

Shohei Ohtani, for instance, spent only the first five weeks or so of the 2019 season on the injured list before returning as a designated hitter. His surgery was performed in early October of 2018 — some seven weeks earlier in the offseason than Harper will go under the knife. Every player’s rehab is different, of course, but a summer return would seem plausible even in the worst-case scenario for Harper. If an internal brace procedure is sufficient, Harper could conceivably return in even shorter order.

Even with the damaged UCL, Harper remained a force in the middle of the Phillies’ lineup. Harper homered in three consecutive games following the diagnosis and batted .295/.381/.510 the rest of the way after learning of the tear. A broken thumb sustained when he was hit by a pitch sidelined him for a notable portion of the summer, but neither injury could prevent Harper from mashing when healthy enough to play. His postseason teetered on historic, as Harper slashed .349/.414/.746 with six home runs and seven doubles in just 71 plate appearances. His NLCS-winning home run against the Padres will forever be etched in Phillies lore.

Harper  is still only four years into the 13-year, $330MM contract he signed as a free agent prior to the 2019 season, but to this point it’s hard to call the contract anything other than a roaring success. Since putting pen to paper and making Philadelphia his long-term home, Harper has batted a combined .282/.384/.546 (not including this year’s postseason exploits), won an NL MVP Award and helped bring the Phillies back to the postseason for the first time since 2011. He’s still owed $222MM over the remaining nine years of the deal, though with the typical AAV for premium players now well north of $30MM, that $24.667MM AAV looks like a bargain for Harper.

The Opener: Diaz, Injuries, Rule 5

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With the World Series in the rear-view and the offseason officially underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Edwin Diaz Sets Records With New Mets Pact

The first major signing of the offseason occurred yesterday evening, with the Mets re-signing star closer Edwin Diaz to a massive five-year, $102MM contract. Diaz now becomes the first relief pitcher to ever secure a nine-figure deal, and the first with a deal of an average annual value north of $20MM. Diaz secured that contract by having a platform season for the ages, throwing 62 innings to a 1.31 ERA and a mind-boggling 0.90 FIP. While the Mets have plenty more to do in rebuilding the bullpen as Trevor May, Seth Lugo, and Mychal Givens depart for free agency, the Diaz re-signing serves as an important first step in that process. The record-setting contract also serves as a reminder of owner Steve Cohen’s willingness to flex financial muscle, which will be important as the Mets look to re-sign or replace players such as Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Brandon Nimmo this offseason.

2. World Series Teams Examine Injuries

Though the 2022 World Series is now a thing of the past, the participants must now turn their focus to the injuries they suffered throughout the season that had been ignored in favor of playing through the postseason run. Most notable among these, of course, is Bryce Harper, who suffered UCL damage in May, with surgery this offseason a possibility. For the World Series champion Astros, three players have injuries to worry about entering the offseason: Alex Bregman suffered a broken finger late in Game 6 on Saturday, Yuli Gurriel missed Game 6 after a sprain to his MCL, and Martin Maldonado played through both a broken hand and a sports hernia this postseason, the latter of which will require surgery according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Bregman’s injury has the least question marks surrounding it, as he will reportedly be ready for Spring Training in 2023. More details could be announced regarding the rest of these injuries in the coming days.

3. Rule 5 Draft Protection Deadline Looms

As Mark Polishuk noted in his offseason preview, the deadline to add players to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from the Rule 5 draft is November 15th this year. Seeing as there was no R5 draft last offseason, teams will likely have more players to protect than usual, which could lead to roster crunches across baseball. This could also lead to some players getting cut from 40-man rosters a few days ahead of November 18th’s non-tender deadline, and some minor trades such as yesterday’s Sam Hilliard deal between the Rockies and Braves. Overall, with these dates being earlier on the offseason calendar, fans should expect a larger quantity of winter moves to happen in this first week of the offseason than in recent years, though said moves won’t necessarily be at the top of the free agent market.

Phillies Notes: Jean Segura, Payroll, Bryce Harper

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The Phillies came up short in their quest to win their third World Series title, ending a roller-coaster of a season with hot streaks, cold streaks, a managerial replacement, and an injury to their star player.  Despite all this tumult, Philadelphia danced their way to their first playoff appearance since 2011 and their first World Series berth since 2009, defeating the Cardinals, Braves, and Padres en route to the Fall Classic.

As the franchise pivots to off-season mode, they will have a few questions to answer starting with Jean Segura. Previously discussed in MLBTR’s 2022-23 Free Agent Series, Segura headlines a relatively weak second-base free agent class, and the Phillies currently hold a $17MM club option with a $1MM buyout on the veteran’s 2023 service. On the heels of a solid 2022 season which saw him post a .277/.336/386 slash line, the Phillies may opt to save money and use a combination of Edmundo Sosa and Bryson Stott to man second base, having rumored interest in long-time Red Sox Xander Bogaerts.

For his part, Segura has expressed a desire to remain in Philadelphia, having told the media, “to be honest, there’s nothing more special than playing in front of Phillies fans…It’s just a pleasure to be able to play in front of those amazing fans,” reports Tim Kelly of Phillies Nation. Segura went on to add that he “would love to finish my career in Philadelphia.”

The Phillies currently have an estimated 2023 Payroll of $161MM, per Roster Resource. After having spent $242MM this past season, the club is expected to continue to add to their core of Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber along with younger players such as Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm, and Stott.

For his part, Harper is sure that President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski and owner John Middleton are going to add to the team, telling reporters that “we’re gonna be the same team but with some more pieces to make us that much better,” per NBC Sports Philadelphia. Manager Rob Thomson shares a similar sentiment, telling reporters after the game that the Phillies roster is “sustainable,” going on to explain that Philadelphia has “a good group of veteran guys, and our system is starting to get loaded up with very good arms at the end of the minor league system,” per Maria McIlwain of The Philadelphia Inquirer.

Harper, despite being diagnosed with a tear in his right UCL in early May, slashed a strong .286/.364/.514 with 18 homers, earning his first trip to the All-Star game in a Phillies uniform. He missed additional time during the season, initially landing on the 10-day IL in late June with a fractured left thumb before being shifted to the 60-day IL in mid-August. Nevertheless, due to the introduction of the universal DH, the Phillies were able to use Harper in a DH-only fashion, salvaging a season from their star player. This rule change helped the Phillies reach the postseason, in which Harper slashed an outlandish .349/.414/.746 with 6 homers in 63 at-bats.

Now that the 2022 season is officially over, Harper’s rehabilitation plan will likely come to light in the upcoming days. Position players that have recently suffered damage to their UCL include Dodgers’ infielder Max Muncy at the end of the 2021 season and Rangers’ shortstop Corey Seager at the start of the 2018 season. Muncy opted not to undergo surgery and said that the recovery was not as quick as he had hoped and that six months after the injury, he wasn’t fully recovered. In contrast, Seager underwent surgery and missed the remainder of the season before returning for the 2020 season. Harper and the Phillies have not indicated which route he will take, but, depending on the severity of the injury, the start of his 2023 season may be delayed.

Phillies Activate Bryce Harper

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The Phillies have reinstated reigning National League MVP Bryce Harper from the 60-day injured list, tweets Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Infielder/outfielder Yairo Munoz was optioned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley to open a spot on the active roster, while fellow outfielder Simon Muzziotti was recalled from Triple-A and placed directly on the 60-day injured list in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster. Philadelphia also recalled southpaw Bailey Falter from Lehigh Valley to start tonight’s game.

Harper is hitting cleanup in today’s Phillies lineup and serving as their designated hitter — a role he figures to occupy down the stretch as he continues to nurse a ligament tear in his throwing elbow. That, of course, is not the injury that’s held Harper out for the past two months. Harper was playing through the elbow issue and serving as a highly productive DH before suffering a fractured thumb upon being hit by a pitch. He required surgery to address the issue and has been out of action since June.

The Phils weathered that absence extremely well, and they find themselves in strong playoff position as a result. Philadelphia heads into tonight’s game with a 70-55 record that places them firmly in possession of the National League’s second Wild Card spot. They’ll now welcome back Harper, owner of a massive .318/.385/.599 showing through 275 plate appearances, to the lineup for the season’s final five weeks. The aforementioned elbow ligament tear will keep Harper at DH, at least for the time being, but Philadelphia is no doubt thrilled to get his bat back in the lineup.

As for Muziotti, his 2022 season is over due to a torn patellar tendon in his right knee. The 23-year-old, one of the better outfield prospects in the organization, made his MLB debut this April and appeared in nine games. He spent the majority of the year with Double-A Reading, hitting .259/.339/.455 through 38 games. He’ll be paid at the prorated $700K MLB minimum rate for the rest of this season and collect around five weeks of big league service time while looking ahead to 2023.

Phillies To Activate Bryce Harper From Injured List On Friday

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Reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper will return to the Phillies’ active roster prior to their game with the Pirates on Friday, Philadelphia manager Rob Thomson told reporters (including MLB.com’s Todd Zelecki).  The initial plan for Harper’s minor league rehab assignment planned for activation from the 60-day injured list on Monday, but Harper will instead return a bit earlier, as suggested by MLB Network’s Jon Morosi earlier today.

The Phillies first placed Harper on the 10-day IL due to his fractured left thumb back on June 26, so he’ll end up missing only slightly beyond the 60-day minimum.  Harper has been making steady progress with his recovery ever since undergoing thumb surgery, and he will now again get to contribute to a Phillies team that has become one of baseball’s hottest teams.

The firing of Joe Girardi and Thomson’s installation as interim manager was the obvious turning point in Philadelphia’s season, as the Phils went 22-29 under Girardi and are currently 47-26 under Thomson.  Not even losing one of the sport’s best hitters slowed down the Phillies, since they have a 31-20 record since Harper was sidelined.

Harper’s thumb was broken by a Blake Snell pitch on June 25, interrupting an unusual but still highly successful season for the 29-year-old.  Due to a small UCL tear in his right elbow, Harper hasn’t played a game in the field since April 16, but his bat hasn’t been impacted by his new role as a full-time DH.  Harper has 21 home runs and a .318/.385/.599 slash line over his first 275 plate appearances, with that .985 OPS standing as the fourth-highest of Harper’s career.

2022 will go down as another Harper season cut short by injury, but that will be a footnote if he is able to help the Phillies reach their first postseason since 2011.  Philadelphia holds the second NL wild card slot, well back of the Braves for the first wild card but with a 3.5-game cushion over the Brewers (the top team outside the playoff picture).

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